Does anyone here really believe any of them will win by a landslide? I'm personally finding this election really, really hard to predict.
As early as 2018, when the yield curve began to flatten, I thought Trump would be in trouble as this is a sign the economy would slow down. And while the economy did slow down somewhat (GDP growth was 2.9% in 2018 and 2.3% last year), upon seeing the unemployment rate was still essentially flat I began to change my forecast edging towards a Trump win.
And yet now this year, as the pandemic hit the world and the US in particular, I thought Trump was yet again in trouble but could still win: After all, while the Federal Government didn't handle the pandemic as well as it is expected to both due to mismanagement and truly fortuitous events - in the latter category, the fuck up at the CDC with regards to the development of an American test. I actually wonder if the Trump administration pressured it to do so owing to his desire to avoid importing them or if it was the result of an internal decision - he could still claim that he had had a good economy whose performance was disrupted (ultimately) due to the pandemic, which isn't quite his fault and which suppresses economic activity due to the necessary containment measures to fight it.
Then the protests and riots began, and thought (and still think) this could actually benefit Trump electorally since these have been taking place mostly in Democratic-led localities, suggesting a desertion from the Party and thus a newfound lack of guarantees Biden would recruit enough participation of Democrat voters since, no matter what they did, they would be pissing a constituency off. No, disgruntled Democrats over this whole business won't vote Trump but maybe they won't vote at all either. Yet then again Trump started to actually stir the pot (as he did before with encouraging anti-lockdown protests in Democratic-led States) at the very beginning of the riots, which could also move independents to vote him out.
And then I realized the whole participation issue is even harder to predict than everything else because no one knows what will be happening with the pandemic either. What if cases shoot up and many voters decide to stay home rather than risk exposure?
And if participation is hard to predict, how the hell exactly can one make any firm predictions about the election? As such, I'm honestly seeing this as a 50-50 kind of election.
Also, regarding opinion polls, those actually underestimated Trump's performance in Republican States back in 2016. I ignore whether this has been fixed or not, it's probably because it's harder to get responses from rural areas.https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/ ... ed-states/