Coronavirus: Just the Numbers [Unassailably Objective] - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15109290
BeesKnee5 wrote:Best not look at todays update.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

7th July is already higher than the previous week with significant data still to come in.

The covid-19 death rates are still going down from that chart. You must be looking at some other chart.
#15109358
Hindsite wrote:The covid-19 death rates are still going down from that chart. You must be looking at some other chart.

No, they're going up; the figure for the week ending 4th July has already overtaken that for 27th June. But the main point, already made but you need it explained to you again, is that those figures, from death certificates, take time to be recorded. There are still deaths for the week ending 23 May being added to the totals. With the archives, we can construct a table:

Code: Select alldate stats updated   Jul 2  Jul 8  Jul 15  Jul 22
wk ending               
5/23/2020            6804   6863   6947   7030
5/30/2020            5670   5758   5868   5998
6/06/2020            4306   4443   4646   4843
6/13/2020            3142   3433   3702   4017
6/20/2020            1640   2287   2892   3522
6/27/2020            313    743    1675   3230
7/04/2020                   177    643    3276
7/11/2020                          272    2531
7/18/2020                                 690

We can see that, for the week ending 13 June, we've been getting about another 300 deaths reported each following week. W/e 20 June is catching up with that - over 600 new deaths being reporting each week. W/e 27 June had over 900, and then over 1500 new deaths in the last 2 reports. W/e 4 July had over 2600 deaths reported in the last week - it's already overtaken the previous week, and there are probably a lot more to come in, in the future weeks.

The point is that looking at just one report for death certificate causes of death only gives a complete picture for about 3 months back and earlier, because it can take ages for some of the stats to make their way through the system. But what we can see from the trend in weekly reports is that the figures are increasing.
#15110437
Updated with a new week's figures:
Code: Select alldate stats updated   Jul 2  Jul 8  Jul 15  Jul 22  Jul 29
wk ending               
5/23/2020            6804   6863   6947   7030    7052
5/30/2020            5670   5758   5868   5998    6015
6/06/2020            4306   4443   4646   4843    4877
6/13/2020            3142   3433   3702   4017    4057
6/20/2020            1640   2287   2892   3522    3598
6/27/2020            313    743    1675   3230    3421
7/04/2020                   177    643    3276    3758
7/11/2020                          272    2531    4020
7/18/2020                                 690     2945
7/25/2020                                          616

We see that these figures (ie Covid deaths that happened in the week ending 5/23/2020 etc., and are gradually put into the stats) show there were more deaths in the week ending 4 July than the one before - and that may go up. It's possible, but hard to predict now, that 6/27 will overtake 6/20.
#15111685
Updated with a new week's figures:
Code: Select alldate stats updated   Jul 2  Jul 8  Jul 15  Jul 22  Jul 29
wk ending               
5/23/2020            6804   6863   6947   7030    7052    7075
5/30/2020            5670   5758   5868   5998    6015    6032
6/06/2020            4306   4443   4646   4843    4877    4904
6/13/2020            3142   3433   3702   4017    4057    4110
6/20/2020            1640   2287   2892   3522    3598    3686
6/27/2020            313    743    1675   3230    3421    3583
7/04/2020                   177    643    3276    3758    4050
7/11/2020                          272    2531    4020    4740
7/18/2020                                 690     2945    4954
7/25/2020                                          616    3112
8/1/2020                                                  501

It looks like the figures for the weeks ending 6/20 and 6/27 are going to end up roughly even, as the lowest.
#15111765
Prosthetic Conscience wrote:Ensemble forecast is 168,000 to 182,000 deaths by Aug 22. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ng-us.html

If it is 175,000, in the middle, then that's about 25,000 in 22 days; the average for the whole of August probably will be under 1650/day, but it may well peak at that for a week or two.

Even that forecast is much less than the original forecast of a million or more deaths. The way I look at it, the more cases that we have that the people recover, the better it is for possible herd immunity.
#15111777
Wulfschilde wrote:maybe one of y'all smart-ass playas can explain ta me where dat second wave spike up in dirtnaps is?

The week ending 3 Aug had 8030 deaths - up from 3391 for the week ending 8 July. That's your own WHO figures - the ones you went to the bother of taking a screen shot of, but your eyesight still seems too poor to be able to see the increase. And perhaps your math is too poor to allow you to add up figures?

But you also said "I prefer the CDC data", so why are you reverting to the WHO data?
#15114881
Update figures:
Code: Select alldate stats updated   Jul 2 Jul 8 Jul 15 Jul 22 Jul 29  Aug 5 Aug 12 Aug 19
wk ending               
5/23/2020            6804   6863   6947   7030   7052   7075   7105   7113
5/30/2020            5670   5758   5868   5998   6015   6032   6050   6064
6/06/2020            4306   4443   4646   4843   4877   4904   4926   4939
6/13/2020            3142   3433   3702   4017   4057   4110   4129   4148
6/20/2020            1640   2287   2892   3522   3598   3686   3708   3740
6/27/2020             313    743   1675   3230   3421   3583   3640   3685
7/04/2020                    177    643   3276   3758   4050   4187   4280
7/11/2020                           272   2531   4020   4740   5087   5314
7/18/2020                                  690   2945   4954   5900   6381
7/25/2020                                         616   3112   5559   6794
8/1/2020                                                 501   2877   5657
8/8/2020                                                        438   3169
8/15/2020                                                              455

So: low was week ending 27 June, which will probably end up a little over 3700. Hard to know yet what some later weeks will end up as, but it'll be well over 7000 for July 25, and the week or 2 following.
#15117302


dam tucker u spicy

Some people pretending I can't read a graph :lol: What part of this downward trend in cases and mostly flat rate of deaths (less than 1/10th of heart disease), for months now, is hard to understand?
Image
#15117454
Updated figures:

Code: Select alldate stats updated   Jul 2 Jul 8 Jul 15 Jul 22 Jul 29  Aug 5 Aug 12 Aug 19 Aug 26 Sept 2
wk ending               
5/23/2020            6804   6863   6947   7030   7052   7075   7105   7113   7123   7130
5/30/2020            5670   5758   5868   5998   6015   6032   6050   6064   6076   6084
6/06/2020            4306   4443   4646   4843   4877   4904   4926   4939   4945   4957
6/13/2020            3142   3433   3702   4017   4057   4110   4129   4148   4155   4160
6/20/2020            1640   2287   2892   3522   3598   3686   3708   3740   3753   3766
6/27/2020             313    743   1675   3230   3421   3583   3640   3685   3707   3723
7/04/2020                    177    643   3276   3758   4050   4187   4280   4336   4366
7/11/2020                           272   2531   4020   4740   5087   5314   5424   5487
7/18/2020                                  690   2945   4954   5900   6381   6623   6769
7/25/2020                                         616   3112   5559   6794   7286   7550
8/1/2020                                                 501   2877   5657   6610   7152
8/8/2020                                                        438   3169   5314   6401
8/15/2020                                                              455   2769   4736
8/22/2020                                                                     400   2109
8/29/2020                                                                            370

So the deaths more than doubled in a month. Obviously not "flat", by any objective evaluation. @Wulfschilde , maybe you should modify the thread title to "...(Hopelessly Subjective)"?
#15117458
The only increase I see here is you're leaving out how the death numbers go up as they update the totals. Otherwise, if we add the older dates together, there is no doubling in a month.
#15117460
Liberals have been lying through their teeth since this thing began. At the start they deliberately sabotaged attempts to control this by quarantining people coming from China. Remember China's National Socialist regime locked down Wuhan internally but encouraged people to go out to the rest of the world and spread the disease. Liberals in Western countries collaborated with this. This is the same way that Liberals deliberately sabotaged the containment of AIDS to Africa and male homosexual communities.

This is nothing like the 1918 flu pandemic. The death levels from the Xi virus are nothing like the 1918 flu. This despite the fact that there was no airline industry in 1918, despite the much lower and slower movement of people in 1918. The daily world death rate is 5400 and falling. The 7 day average death rate never exceeded 7000 and peaked in late April. Notice how the Liberal lie machine has worked. They pose it as Black and White. Either its a 1918 level pandemic or its no worse than the winter flu epidemics of recent years. Either there must be no counter measures, not even voluntarily ones or there must be lock down fascism and compulsory vaccines.

This is why there was such hatred against Sweden, against the Liberals that broke ranks. Liberals and Commies always claim to hate Fascists, Nazis and extreme morphological racists, but their real extreme hatred is always reserved for their own that are seen as breaking ranks. This is why when in 1940 the British and French empires were in a life and death struggle with Nazi Germany, Stalin's energies were focussed on hunting down and killing Leon Trotsky. Liberals couldn't give a toss about silencing genuine real Hitler lovers, no the people they so desperate to silence are the likes of J.K Rowling.

The lock down Liberals have never been concerned about saving lives. That was exposed when we had all the Black Lies Matter demonstrations. And these Liberal hypocrites think we're going to take lectures from them on selfishness. In Britain a lot if not most of the peak deaths were due to sick people having their medical care stopped in order to "save the NHS". The number one goal has always been about defeating Trump, longer term yes its about the Cultural Marxist / Green agenda.
#15117461
Wulfschilde wrote:The only increase I see here is you're leaving out how the death numbers go up as they update the totals. Otherwise, if we add the older dates together, there is no doubling in a month.

I have no idea what you're talking about, and I don't think you have any idea either.

I have frequently talked in this thread about how death numbers for a week go up as they update them. For the week ending 27 June, it's now at 3723 deaths, and increasing very slowly (up 16 in the latest week of reporting). For the week ending 25 July, it's already at 7550 - more than double, and still going up a little faster (up 264 in the latest week of reporting).

What on earth does "add the older dates together" mean? That just sounds like a random trashing of the data. Come on, if you're going to pretend you are being "unassailably objective", make a bit more of an effort than that.
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