The End of Lukashenko is near. - Page 4 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15104138
Political Interest wrote:The liberalism you have in the former USSR and Warsaw Pact countries is for now a watered down version. You still have your national traditions and cultural conservatism to provide some balance.

I live in the West and do not have such luxuries. In fact liberalism is reaching such extremes that I fear for the future. That is why I am interested in different ideologies.

Or perhaps it is not so much a question of ideology as much as it is national history and cultural traditions that we have in the West.

In any case I do not want Russia as an enemy. It is simply a dead end.


How is it related to Belarus though. The current shtick of Lukashenko that the opposition is sponsored by Poland and Russia to overthrow him. :lol: Also Putin is pissed at Lukashenko.
#15104144
JohnRawls wrote:How is it related to Belarus though.


Because Lukashenko is not liberal.

JohnRawls wrote:The current shtick of Lukashenko that the opposition is sponsored by Poland and Russia to overthrow him. :lol: Also Putin is pissed at Lukashenko.


Is Putin annoyed because Lukashenko has made overtures to the US in the last few years?
#15104149
Political Interest wrote:Because Lukashenko is not liberal.



Is Putin annoyed because Lukashenko has made overtures to the US in the last few years?


Regarding war between EU and Russia:
I don't see how Lukashenko being liberal or illiberal has anything to do with a war being waged between Russia and Lukashenko :?:

Putin:
No, he is just pissed about Lukashenko not fullfilling his promises although Putin sponsored him for a long time now. Basically Russia has given Lukashenko 2nd and 3rd chances and Lukashenko sent them for a ride, took the money and didn't do much. I guess Putin position is that if Belarus doesn't want to integrate then they will not recieve money as they used to.
#15104159
JohnRawls wrote:Liberalism changed over time. Ideologies are not static. America has been liberal for god knows how long now but they also had slavery and other horrible institutions or traditions can exist within liberalism and did exist. But same thing can be said for any ideology.


My point was, when regarding Liberalism, is that it gets worse as it mutates over time, until the primary thing it seems to ''liberate'' anyone from is their sanity, losing all constraints of common sense, biology, culture, tradition, and morality. Give it time, and the best thing it seems to be most useful for is eventually ending the nations most afflicted with it.
#15104224
JohnRawls wrote:Liberalism changed over time. Ideologies are not static. America has been liberal for god knows how long now but they also had slavery and other horrible institutions or traditions can exist within liberalism and did exist. But same thing can be said for any ideology.


While this is true, there were always certain constants to liberalism, such as free political competition, free speech/press and an adherence to economic freedom.

annatar1914 wrote:My point was, when regarding Liberalism, is that it gets worse as it mutates over time, until the primary thing it seems to ''liberate'' anyone from is their sanity, losing all constraints of common sense, biology, culture, tradition, and morality. Give it time, and the best thing it seems to be most useful for is eventually ending the nations most afflicted with it.


I'm sure that's what catholic conservatives said 200 years ago as well, you people never change.

P.S. Needless to say how Americans use the term "liberal" nowadays is completely meaningless and irrelevant to me.
#15104246
annatar1914 wrote:My point was, when regarding Liberalism, is that it gets worse as it mutates over time, until the primary thing it seems to ''liberate'' anyone from is their sanity, losing all constraints of common sense, biology, culture, tradition, and morality. Give it time, and the best thing it seems to be most useful for is eventually ending the nations most afflicted with it.


Your using American definition of liberalism. That is just wrong. Most of the things that you are complaining about are related to left leaning or hard left policies nowadays who HATE liberalism. You bunching left ideas and liberalism together is just insane.
#15104582
@Rugoz



I'm sure that's what catholic conservatives said 200 years ago as well, you people never change.


''you people''? I'm not Catholic, and that sounds like a personal attack instead of a rebuttal of the solid facts on Swiss history I reminded us of, so...

P.S. Needless to say how Americans use the term "liberal" nowadays is completely meaningless and irrelevant to me.


That's why you argued about it last several posts? :roll:
#15104583
JohnRawls wrote:Your using American definition of liberalism. That is just wrong. Most of the things that you are complaining about are related to left leaning or hard left policies nowadays who HATE liberalism. You bunching left ideas and liberalism together is just insane.


:roll:

I'm not an ''American Conservative'' in any case so that critique does not apply. I am rightfully speaking about Western Liberalism in general, whereas Leftism has a solid basis in Socialism which hasn't changed much and upon which it stands or falls as an Ideology.
#15104758
Igor Antunov wrote:No Lukashenko means Belarus is annexed back into Russia overnight. Meh, sounds good.


Quite. The two scenarios are at worst equal.

Russia has practically abolished capital punishment, which can be seen as a plus.
#15104795
annatar1914 wrote:''you people''? I'm not Catholic, and that sounds like a personal attack instead of a rebuttal of the solid facts on Swiss history I reminded us of, so...


Why should I rebut a fact :eh:

If you want to argue that Switzerland wasn't liberal because of the lack of women's suffrage you're free to do that of course, but that is a rather peculiar position to take. Gender equality is only one aspect of liberalism after all.

annatar1914 wrote:That's why you argued about it last several posts? :roll:


No I did not. Americans use the term liberal interchangeably with left-wing. I think we can all agree that is rather silly.
#15105096
Why should I rebut a fact :eh:


You've been doing a rather Quixotic job of it so far. Don't confuse my positions on something you're imagining from your experience or reading from Roman Catholics.

If you want to argue that Switzerland wasn't liberal because of the lack of women's suffrage you're free to do that of course, but that is a rather peculiar position to take. Gender equality is only one aspect of liberalism after all.


:lol:

It's a huge aspect of Liberalism; ''gender equality''.



No I did not. Americans use the term liberal interchangeably with left-wing. I think we can all agree that is rather silly.


Considering that the real Left is almost non-existent now, I think it's safe to say that ''liberal'' and ''left'' are now pretty much synonymous these days, as much as I might not like that fact. Indeed, when one comes to that realization, one has to draw some perhaps painful conclusions about the world at large to begin with.

Which is why Lukashenko is perhaps basically alright, for Belarus at least.
#15105115
annatar1914 wrote:It's a huge aspect of Liberalism; ''gender equality''.


It certainly wasn't in the 18/19th century when liberalism came into being. Your perspective on liberalism is utterly ahistorical.

annatar1914 wrote:Considering that the real Left is almost non-existent now, I think it's safe to say that ''liberal'' and ''left'' are now pretty much synonymous these days, as much as I might not like that fact. Indeed, when one comes to that realization, one has to draw some perhaps painful conclusions about the world at large to begin with.

Which is why Lukashenko is perhaps basically alright, for Belarus at least.


In general the political left is economically illiberal while the right is socially illiberal. By historical standards the entire political spectrum in Western democracies can be considered liberal today, but certainly not only the left. In Europe, where the term is used properly, liberal parties are usually centrist.
#15105117
It certainly wasn't in the 18/19th century when liberalism came into being. Your perspective on liberalism is utterly ahistorical.


You might want to read this;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suffragette

Getting women the right to vote was along the same historical time frame for early Liberals as getting rid of slavery via Abolitionism, and there was overlapping membership in both sub-movements.


In general the political left is economically illiberal while the right is socially illiberal.


Which would make me entirely ''illiberal'', and puts the definition of ''Right'' and ''Left'' as most commentators put it pretty nonsensical.

I accept rather the American Libertarian cartography of the political spectrum as flowing along ''Statist'' to ''Libertarian'' and Anarchist, albeit that I do not accept their ideology in general.


By historical standards the entire political spectrum in Western democracies can be considered liberal today, but certainly not only the left. In Europe, where the term is used properly, liberal parties are usually centrist.


I'll just say that I see almost the entire modern political spectrum as Liberal, with even the extremists of the ''Right'' and ''Left'' being basically Jacobins at heart.

Just about the only openly politically active illiberals in Western societies today would be the Islamic organizations, as far as I can tell.
#15112302
It's election day of Belarus today.

The following is a translation of a Chinese article on the Belorussian election.

There are lots of different elections in the world. Some are close calls that the result is not out until the last moment, while others do not have any doubts with the winner known before the day. Belarus looks like the latter.

This former-USSR member is doing to hold election on 9 Aug. Alexander Lukashenko, who's named as "Europe's last dictator", has been in power for 26 years, and is seeking yet another re-election. Although it's certain that he's going to win, but this time he's facing unprecedented opposition, which means change might be near.

----

After the dissolution of the USSR, Belarus becomes independent and defines its own constitution and state composition. After that, there's been only one preseident -- Lukashenko.

For many years, Lukashenko has been accused of jailing opposition leaders, suppressing opinion polls and holding "seriously flawed" elections. He's sanctioned by the United States and the European Union since 2004. President George W. Bush even named Lukashenko "Europe's last dictator". Belarus is also the final country in Europe to uphold capital punishment, which is carried out by a shooting.

Many specialists see Lukashenko as a dictatorial populist, gaining legitimacy from grassroot voters but not international recognition. Western observers believe Lukashenko has been meddling in elections to emerge victorious. According to official figures, his vote share has never fallen below 75%.

----

Facing the high wall, Belorussians were originally politically insensitive. However, this time the opposition seemed to have gained force. Rallies held by Youtuber Sergei Tikhanovsky, banker Viktor Babariko, and former diplomat Valery Tsepkalo attracted crowds in thousands, which was not seen before.

Of course, all three of them had been disqualified (Patrickov: much like what the US-sanctioned Carrie Lam did to opposition candidates). Still, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the wife of Sergei Tikhanovsky, chose to take over from her husband's struggle to end Lukashenko's rule, and aim to hold a fair, democratic election within half a year. She's a homemaker and teacher.

Tikhanovskaya not only succeeded her husband, but managed to unite all three opposition forces. Together with the wife of Tsepkalo and the election agent of Babariko, they form the "the three musket-women" alliance, asking for peaceful change.

On 30 July, Tikhanovskaya held the biggest rally in Belarus in 10 years. According to NGO, attendance was as high as 60,000. Even the police admitted a level of 20,000. According to Sofya Orlosky, Eurasian Senior Project Manager of Freedom House, the election committee probably did not expect Tikhanovskaya would have rallied so much support and united the opposition, that they did not see her a threat at first.

----

A quarter-century of "administration fatigue", economic problems, and the inadequate response to the "COVID-19" (Wuhan Pneumonia) epidemic (Lukashenko once said the Wuhan Pneumonia was a "mental disease") all caused the people yearning for change. Before the election, streets of Belarus cities often have protests. Katia Glod, a former election observer of the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, commented the importance of "loss of mainstream support" of Lukashenko. "Previously protests seldomly occur outside Minsk, but now there are protests everywhere, meaning that people strongly yearn for change."

The United States, United Kingdom, Germany and Poland all urge Belarus to uphold freedom and fairness of the election, but many are not optimistic. According to Glod, there are jailing and arbitrary prosecution of main candidates, governmental suppression of election activities, as well as possibilities of Lukashenko faking votes to win.

The only "trump card" of opposition is the power of the crowd. As said by Orlosky, Lukashenko would find it harder to control the election if the polling rate is high enough. "The people in Belarus are not blind; they know what's happening in their country. They're ready for change. There is an overwhelming energy that has ripened by now."

Even if Lukashenko is very likely to be "re-elected", it doesn't mean his future is bright. Aside from economic problems, Belarus is also plagued by whether they should be more pro-Russia, or pro-Europe. Lukashenko started out as a pro-Russian, but changed his stance as Moscow pushed for closer intergration, so as to make himself "defender of the nation's sovereignity".

The problem is, if Lukashenko becomes weaker, it would also be harder for him to resist Russia, while suppressing opposition made him lose his opportunity to be closer to the West.

In the opinion of Glod, the rise of support of Tikhanovskaya means the people rather be close to Europe. "They want democracy, rule-of-law and European values, and they have no intention to relent."


Possible reference of the article: Euro News


I find Belarus's story very related to Hoi Bun, the housing estate I am living in -- not just Hong Kong. The reason is, the political environment at my place used to be very similar to Belarus.

Timmy Chow, the previous councilor, acted similarly to Lukashenko. Before the pro-democracy SJW Lester Shum came here and won the 2019 election, Chow constantly used his feud with the main pro-Beijing party (DAB) to maintain his 3-decade councilor status. However, this tactic failed in 2019. After that, Chow showed his true colours as a staunch pro-establishment figure.

Similarly, Lukashenko wanted to portray himself as an anti-Russia leader to induce fear of anti-Russian voters.

In contrast, Tikhanovskaya resembles Lester Shum.

I expect that, even if Lukashenko wins this time, sooner or later the "Hoi Bun effect" would come to Minsk and haunt him.
#15112368
Some updates on Belarussia. Apprently Lukashenko went for massive falsification:

Here is an example, vote in Belarus is over several days:

1) 1 place had only 37 people come in the first day and vote. Total votes for that day 134.
2) Same place had 54 people come in the second day. Total votes for the 2nd day 254.

Police and army is on the streets and some of the metro stations are closed durring an election :knife:
Police is grabbing random people to prevent a group of people from gathering in one place. If this happened to only journalists, now it is basically happening to everyone.

The situation is pretty clear, Lukashenko is just gonna falsify the election. Probably massive protests will break out with clashes between the opposition and whats left of support for Lukashenko. Not sure how well will Lukashenkos fear campaign will work but there is a chance that it will. Basically if this escalates in to big violence then Lukashenko is toast and people are literally gonna get hanged. If Lukashenkos fear works then basically he might remain in power but his days are number more or less. Regimes of fear repression will never last.
#15112375
JohnRawls wrote:Regimes of fear repression will never last.


Then why the CCP still lasts and it has to take someone like Donald Trump to stop them, and there are so fucking many China apologists, even at places as small as PoFo they make perpetration on a daily basis?

IMHO Lukashenko's days will only be numbered if
1. Putin find him expendable, and
2. He does not possess nuclear weapons like Kim Jong-un
#15112382
Patrickov wrote:Then why the CCP still lasts and it has to take someone like Donald Trump to stop them, and there are so fucking many China apologists, even at places as small as PoFo they make perpetration on a daily basis?

IMHO Lukashenko's days will only be numbered if
1. Putin find him expendable, and
2. He does not possess nuclear weapons like Kim Jong-un


CCP regime is repressive in certain places while you yourself agreed that mainland Chinese are a bit different compared to HK and UHyurs etc. The level of respression by Lukashenko is more while the general awareness of the whole population is also more of the situation.
#15112404
Some additional info, in Europe voting station that Belarus can't silence:

Poland: 2457 vote in Warshap, 3 for Lukashenko, rest for opposition.
Brussels: Out of around 350 only 10 for Lukashenko.

Etc etc etc.

It seems violence is igniting on the streets.
#15112411
Independant group managed to question around 1 million people from Belorus online. 80% for Tihonovskaya and around 15% for Lukashenko :|

The site has been blocked now and is unavailable anymore for access. Was replaced by a snooper that asks for your phone number :eek:
Last edited by JohnRawls on 09 Aug 2020 22:34, edited 1 time in total.
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