The End of Lukashenko is near. - Page 5 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15112413
It seems police started using at least rubbet bullits against the protesters.
#15112417
It seems most of the Belorussian internet has been shut down.
#15112505
Patrickov wrote:what's going on?

Lukashenko won with 80.23% of the vote on a 79.01% turnout.

"Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."

— Stalin


:lol:
#15112509
Oxymoron wrote:....If Russia invaded Kiev, NATO would not lift a finger military to assist them. Like they didnt do shit during Georgia. Come on what are you going to do attack Russian troops? Risk all out Nuclear exchange over Ukraine?

As far why Russia did not that back Donetsk and Luhansk... its strategic, Crimea was a no brainer you must protect access to Black sea and use its military port. Now the other territories have no strategic interest to Russia aside..... being a warm conflict that prevents Ukraine from joining Nato, and even possibly the EU. As long as there is fighting, Europe will not risk entanglements. If Russia on the other hand took those territories over then Ukraine can have better chance of European support...


I agree with most of your post, especially why Crimea was annexed and why no attempt was made to take anywhere else in Ukraine. But even if Russia was stupid enough to attack Keiv, you are right NATO wouldn't have responded against (or would have just sanctioned more) Russia, however Russia would have to somehow control a hostile city which in itself is punishment enough. Without the minds of those you control it's a very costly exercise and really doesn't achieve anything. The same would be true with Minsk I guess. Although like Eastern Ukraine, Russia would provide the government with arms meaning without outside interference Lukashenko End is most definitely not near.
#15112535
Patrickov wrote:advocating it as something right.

What has right or wrong got to do with it? I just found it amusing that you all thought Lukashenko could lose an 'election'.


:lol:
#15112536
ingliz wrote:79.01%


:lol:


Will see, his real support seems to be 15% with Tihanovkaya/opposition at 75-80%.

As i said, i don't think that its possible to keep the whole country in check with 15% or less support. Somebody is going to kill the dictator or overthrow him. It is hard to see how it will proceed though. Terror campaighn has started and the internet is mostly been shut down but this is not enough when the opposition has 80% support. The opposition outnumbers the dictator and his cronies 4 to 1 basically if not more.

Durring the night couple of people died, hundreds wounded and thousands arrested. Currently all of the prisons and holding cells are full. So i am not sure how Lukashenko can continue arresting people without building concentration camps :|
#15112556
ingliz wrote:I just found it amusing that you all thought Lukashenko could lose an 'election'.


"What is right" is totally different from "what is going to happen". I have my rights to express what I think is right, but it is stupid to believe I actually think it is gonna happen.

If anything, it is more reliable to make something happen myself, should I have the capability.
#15112561
Rancid wrote:80% of the vote..... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

How securely a dictator is in power is usually inversely proportional to the share of the popular vote he (or quite possibly she) claims to have won. 80% is relatively low, as these things go, which indicates that Lukashenko feels reasonably secure. If he starts claiming to have won 90% of the popular vote, then you know he's in trouble; and if he claims to have 99% popular support, then you should expect to see tanks ramming the gates of the Presidential Palace any day.... :lol:
#15112568
Rancid wrote:80% of the vote..... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


Some voting places refused to falsify and Tihonovskaya won there with 4 to 1 or more advantage.

Plus the Polish vote in Washaw is the cherry on the top. Out of around 2500 votes only 3 were for Lukashenko :lol:
#15112572
Potemkin wrote:How securely a dictator is in power is usually inversely proportional to the share of the popular vote he (or quite possibly she) claims to have won. 80% is relatively low, as these things go, which indicates that Lukashenko feels reasonably secure.

If you multiply the vote share he got by the turnout, it rather indicates how firm his grip on the country is, I guess. That number was 51.8% in Putin's case in 2018 and it's 66.5% for Lukashenko, the difference is due to a lot higher turnout in Belarus. So it's not his higher popularity that makes him a stronger leader than the Russian president, it's rather his superior ability to mobilise his base. :lol:
#15112594
Potemkin wrote:How securely a dictator is in power is usually inversely proportional to the share of the popular vote he (or quite possibly she) claims to have won. 80% is relatively low, as these things go, which indicates that Lukashenko feels reasonably secure. If he starts claiming to have won 90% of the popular vote, then you know he's in trouble; and if he claims to have 99% popular support, then you should expect to see tanks ramming the gates of the Presidential Palace any day.... :lol:


I can believe this. :lol: That said, is their historical data that provides backup to this claim?
#15112611
Rancid wrote:I can believe this. :lol: That said, is their historical data that provides backup to this claim?

Absolutely there is. In other news, it has been reported that 27.3% of all statistics are just made up on the spot. :excited:
#15112618
In fairness to @JohnRawls, Lukashenko got 5% less of the vote than last time around. At this rate, he's scheduled to dip under 50% some time around 2050. So it's fair to say that the "end of Lukashenko is near" in the context of geological time.

:lol:

JohnRawls wrote:Some voting places refused to falsify and Tihonovskaya won there with 4 to 1 or more advantage.

I guess this means that the 2016 US election was rigged, because in Manhattan, Hillary Clinton carried something like 89% of the vote. :excited:

In other news, this is why NATO should be disbanded. Watching @JohnRawls begging for Moar War every time a country elects a leader he doesn't like, is really annoying.
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