[B0ycey]

In the sense that they should be held accountable because they have more resources entitled to their disposal.

Accountable to whom? If Lukashenko takes it too far the West will no doubt sanction Belarus and Russia will advocate appropriate retaliation. Nobody will do much about it. International law isn't worth the paper it is written on but even that has a clause if Belarus declared them terrorists. The idea the state cannot or should not fight back is frankly fantasy.

[JohnRawls]

Accountable to whom? If Lukashenko takes it too far the West will no doubt sanction Belarus and Russia will advocate appropriate retaliation. Nobody will do much about it. International law isn't worth the paper it is written on but even that has a clause if Belarus declared them terrorists. The idea the state cannot or should not fight back is frankly fantasy.

Europe will sanction Belarus for sure.

[JohnRawls]

Small update: Apparently Tihonovskaya might actually not be in Lithuania. She was held "hostage" of sorts in the office of the government who is responsible for counting the votes. Her 2 statements recently were read of a paper and the chair/background in the videos looked awefully similar to the furniture and decorum as in the office of the head of that govermental branch. So she might have been taken hostage as her husband and other opposition leaders.

Edit: It seems that whole ukranian internet and ifrastructure has been shut down. So no internet in the whole country. May be even all land line and mobile communications have also been taken down.

[Atlantis]

Lukashenko will be brought down sooner or later by internal opposition. The Covid-19 situation is worse than the government admits. So far, Lukashenko has been using the Trump script-book, which is a recipe for disaster. With the election out of the way, the official figures for Covid-19 are likely to go up.

The economy is bound to take a hit due to the pandemic and since Lukashenko doesn't seem to enjoy Putin dick-sucking all that much, dwindling support from Russia will further damage the economy.

I just hope the West doesn't get involved in any regime-change plot. We don't need another frozen conflict as in Ukraine.

[anasawad]

Good. Soon I'll be back to Belarus to join the protests as well. ( came to Lebanon a few days ago to help with the repairs and all)

Although I still consider myself a sort of an outsider in the country (I'm part of the community, but I'm not native so I don't interfere much with the politics of the country as some won't like that), I'm fully aware of the growing resentment against Lukashenko, though not spoken of it often since that gets you in trouble.
Eitherway, Vive la révolution.


Though must say, I fucking hate this year.

[JohnRawls]

Good. Soon I'll be back to Belarus to join the protests as well. ( came to Lebanon a few days ago to help with the repairs and all)

Although I still consider myself a sort of an outsider in the country (I'm part of the community, but I'm not native so I don't interfere much with the politics of the country as some won't like that), I'm fully aware of the growing resentment against Lukashenko, though not spoken of it often since that gets you in trouble.
Eitherway, Vive la révolution.


Though must say, I fucking hate this year.

Yeah it sucks. Be careful.

Dozens if not hundreds of journalists have been arrested. Not to mention more than 3000 regular people just yesterday night. Nobody knows what happened this night yet. Internet is mostly down and out of social media only Telegram is working a bit because it has measures against this. Mobile and land lines are also being taken down right now as i understand.

Yesterday some news managed to come through but today it is as if all the news have been cut off. So hard to say what is really going on.

[anasawad]

@JohnRawls
I'm not sure if there are English channels, but I've been following the news through Instagram and Twitter so far. The internet is down in some key areas, but the further you go into the countryside, everything returns to normal with a connection back on.

I'll make a list tonight of the ones I've been following through and post them here.
Though you guys have to translate since English isn't really a common news language in the region.

[Patrickov]

If Lukashenko takes it too far the West will no doubt sanction Belarus and Russia will advocate appropriate retaliation.

Lukashenko is already on the sanction list of the United States.

[Patrickov]

Though must say, I fucking hate this year.

This year probably sucks to everybody, righteous or wicked.

Religious people would say it is the Year of Reckoning.

[ingliz]

Europe will sanction Belarus for sure.

And what will that achieve? Increasing Western interference in Belorussian internal affairs will likely force Lukashenko into Putin's arms.

“I hope your state activity will facilitate mutually beneficial Russian-Belarusian relations in all areas, deepen cooperation within the Union State, and build up integration processes.”

— Putin pushes for more integration with Belarus after election

[JohnRawls]

And what will that achieve? Increasing Western interference in Belorussian internal affairs will likely force Lukashenko into Putin's arms.

“I hope your state activity will facilitate mutually beneficial Russian-Belarusian relations in all areas, deepen cooperation within the Union State, and build up integration processes.”

— Putin pushes for more integration with Belarus after election

It will show the protesters that they have our support in the search of liberty. Not to mention the Belarussian economy is weak anyways so this will make the situation worse.

Just to elaborate how bad the Belarus economy is due to state capitalism/state managed economy. Lithuania exports more agricultural production than Belarussia for example both by total value and tonnage. Lithuania also produces more.

[B0ycey]

...and since Lukashenko doesn't seem to enjoy Putin dick-sucking all that much, dwindling support from Russia will further damage the economy.

Don't you get the impression that it's just a facade? Show the public that Russia doesn't matter when in reality they are key allies behind closed doors - learning from the mistakes of Yanukovych. Or perhaps it was an election stunt. Either way for every aggressive stance he makes against Russia he always returns a complement. And should we see greater sanctions my instinct tells me Lukashenko will find his sucking lips for sure and Putin will open his arms right up. Because by and large Belarus hasn't really shut it's economy down even slightly for their Covid response so I doubt that will make much impression compared to sanctions to their economy.

[B0ycey]

Lukashenko is already on the sanction list of the United States.

Always room for more.

[Atlantis]

Don't you get the impression that it's just a facade? Show the public that Russia doesn't matter when in reality they are key allies behind closed doors - learning from the mistakes of Yanukovych. Or perhaps it was an election stunt. Either way for every aggressive stance he makes against Russia he always returns a complement. And should we see greater sanctions my instinct tells me Lukashenko will find his sucking lips for sure and Putin will open his arms right up. Because by and large Belarus hasn't really shut it's economy down even slightly for their Covid response so I doubt that will make much impression compared to sanctions to their economy.

I don't think it's just a facade. There have been several incidents in recent months or even years that show the underlying tension between Lukashenko and Putin. I think Putin wants Belarus to join the Russian federation. That's not going to go down well in Minsk. Lukashenko will defend Belarus' independence. Unfortunately, Belarus's economy, especially the energy sector, depends very much on Russia. Putin can easily tighten the screws by scrapping subsidized energy supplies to Belarus, and nobody could blame him for it. I think Belarus is different from Ukraine. Even opposition leaders in Belarus aren't hostile towards Russia as in Kiev.

[Patrickov]

Lukashenko will defend Belarus' independence.

Sort of. I don't think his genuine care of this bigger than that towards his supremacy though.

[Rugoz]

Europe will sanction Belarus for sure.

Sanctions for regime change don't work. When have they ever worked?

[Patrickov]

Sanctions for regime change don't work. When have they ever worked?

To be fair, nothing would work as long as the dictator has support of the handlers of violence (army, police, etc.)

It is either those people defecting the dictator, or the entire force losing in a war that a change may be achieved.

I have little faith in peace for situations like these.

[B0ycey]

I don't think it's just a facade. There have been several incidents in recent months or even years that show the underlying tension between Lukashenko and Putin. I think Putin wants Belarus to join the Russian federation. That's not going to go down well in Minsk. Lukashenko will defend Belarus' independence. Unfortunately, Belarus's economy, especially the energy sector, depends very much on Russia. Putin can easily tighten the screws by scrapping subsidized energy supplies to Belarus, and nobody could blame him for it. I think Belarus is different from Ukraine. Even opposition leaders in Belarus aren't hostile towards Russia as in Kiev.

How can anyone really be hostile to your neighbours when you are a landlocked nation?

Nonetheless what makes you think Belarus isn't already part of the Russian federation? Call a rose by any other name if you like, all roads lead to Moscow. And Belarus hasn't evolved away from their Soviet past. Which only leads me to conclude that Lukashenko outbursts are merely a facade to show strength to a population that wants to believe independence is worth something during an election campaign he had to resort to rigging to save face. Because in reality Belarus isn't just dependent on Russia for just power - which is ironically something they have the means to produce themselves. They are more dependent on them for their trade partnership.

I guess what I am saying is if there was any form of tension behind closed doors, Putin would behave the same way he did to Ukraine. And being landlocked, the results would be more devastating. The fact he largely ignores Lukashenko means there is an understanding. What you see and hear isn't what said behind the cameras. An Eastern European leadership trait of visual bluff and buster for material and public favor and is tactic very similar to Orban and Duda use against the EU in that regard. And to expect any form of "screw tightening", whether welcome, justified or whatever simply will not happen especially when Putin has already congratulated Lukashenko on his victory. I have read there is some form of movement towards sanctions from the West due to political persecution. But whilst civil unrest is being maintained by rubber bullets, even that will be merely bluster and symbolic rather than designed to entice regime change because to be frank, Belarus ties are too close to Russia to do anything of significance.

Lukashenko is here to stay.

[B0ycey]

To be fair, nothing would work as long as the dictator has support of the handlers of violence (army, police, etc.)

Indeed.

Allende fell not because of policy but because he had the wrong leader in charge of his Army. A mistake few leaders have made since.

[Rugoz]

To be fair, nothing would work as long as the dictator has support of the handlers of violence (army, police, etc.)

It's actually rather easy to topple a regime nowadays if protesters turn up in large enough numbers. In Hong Kong it doesn't work because the rulers are in Bejing.