[Atlantis]

How can anyone really be hostile to your neighbours when you are a landlocked nation?

Nonetheless what makes you think Belarus isn't already part of the Russian federation? Call a rose by any other name if you like, all roads lead to Moscow. And Belarus hasn't evolved away from their Soviet past. Which only leads me to conclude that Lukashenko outbursts are merely a facade to show strength to a population that wants to believe independence is worth something during an election campaign he had to resort to rigging to save face. Because in reality Belarus isn't just dependent on Russia for just power - which is ironically something they have the means to produce themselves. They are more dependent on them for their trade partnership.

I guess what I am saying is if there was any form of tension behind closed doors, Putin would behave the same way he did to Ukraine. And being landlocked, the results would be more devastating. The fact he largely ignores Lukashenko means there is an understanding. What you see and hear isn't what said behind the cameras. An Eastern European leadership trait of visual bluff and buster for material and public favor and is tactic very similar to Orban and Duda use against the EU in that regard. And to expect any form of "screw tightening", whether welcome, justified or whatever simply will not happen especially when Putin has already congratulated Lukashenko on his victory. I have read there is some form of movement towards sanctions from the West due to political persecution. But whilst civil unrest is being maintained by rubber bullets, even that will be merely bluster and symbolic rather than designed to entice regime change because to be frank, Belarus ties are too close to Russia to do anything of significance.

Lukashenko is here to stay.

The screw-tightening has already started some time ago and is already hurting Belarus's economy:

Reduced support from Russia hits Belarus’s unreformed economy

There is no reason to believe that Putin will abandon his ambition of swallowing Belarus and there is no reason to believe that Lukashenko will cede power to Putin without a fight.

Aside from Russia, Belarus has borders with 4 other countries. In fact, it's border with the EU is longer than its border with Russia. Except for energy, there is nothing to stop Belarus from diversifying away from Russian trade. As to fossil fuels, Belarus will have to get used to paying market prices like all other countries sooner or later. They won't sell their sovereignty for a 17% rebate on oil.

Lukashenko will be toppled when economic hardship starts to bite and discontent spreads to all sections of the population.

[B0ycey]

Lukashenko will be toppled when economic hardship starts to bite and discontent spreads to all sections of the population.

Interesting post.

But hypothetically do you think that if Lukashenko was at risk of being toppled from economic hardship that Putin would risk an opposition taking over that found refuged in an EU state? Especially as it could be another border state that might be looking to join the EU under new leadership.

Fuel subsidies aside, I would say relations between the two states are by and large friendly.

[JohnRawls]

The mobilization of the military for the crackdown had it's obvious effect. Violence has escalated beyond any believable levels which is expected. The military is not trained to de-escalate and handle protests. Currently hundreds injured last night and dozens in critical condition. Some are dead but nobody knows how many. Standard practise is that if the police or the military are in smaller groups then they all carry military issued hand grenades to prevent themselves from being overrun by protesters. Otherwise there is simply not enough military personal and police to contain the protest. Minsk is better than most places because the government basically moved a lot of personal their from other cities while all the other towns are undermanned. Well the protest is nation wide almost in every city.

[JohnRawls]

Sanctions for regime change don't work. When have they ever worked?

The Soviet Union. Sanctions are not quick like war but over a long period of time they definitely work.

[Patrickov]

The Soviet Union. Sanctions are not quick like war but over a long period of time they definitely work.

The Soviet Union was so big that sanctions would not have hurt as much as their involvement in Afghanistan. They more or less self-destructed. Also, it can be easily seen that most successor countries were not any better or even worse, and the process of break-up (especially Gorbachev kind of sped it up) actually made other dictatorships (e.g. China) even more repressive.

[wat0n]

The Soviet Union was so big that sanctions would not have hurt. They more or less self-destructed. Also, it can be easily seen that most successor countries were not any better or even worse, and this experience actually made other dictatorships (e.g. China) even more repressive.

Sanctions can help, but not in the way you may believe. One of the reasons behind the American sanctions on Cuba was to force the Soviets to sink money into the Castros' regime for several years

[JohnRawls]

The Soviet Union was so big that sanctions would not have hurt as much as their involvement in Afghanistan. They more or less self-destructed. Also, it can be easily seen that most successor countries were not any better or even worse, and the process of break-up (especially Gorbachev kind of sped it up) actually made other dictatorships (e.g. China) even more repressive.

It all piles up eventually. But a large problem for the Soviet Union was that any technological transfer from the West to the SU was forbidden. So although they could make missiles and stuff but they couldn't make good fridges and other every day things etc simply because they had no money to do research in those areas.

[Patrickov]

It's actually rather easy to topple a regime nowadays if protesters turn up in large enough numbers.

In Hong Kong it doesn't work because the rulers are in Bejing.

I try to avoid mentioning my own place. While I do not fear being tagged for arrest (not that it won't happen), I do not want to have a certain propagandist slandering me "crying of China every thread" again.

I think this statement does not match reality well. In both Libya and Syria, war has to be fought in the end, and they do not even have the same degree of success. Iran, Thailand, Venezuela and France could all be seen as failures as well.

Still, for the "because the rulers are in Beijing" part, one may argue that China is treating Hong Kong in the mindset of a foreign conqueror rather than "a member of their own".

[Patrickov]

It all piles up eventually. But a large problem for the Soviet Union was that any technological transfer from the West to the SU was forbidden. So although they could make missiles and stuff but they couldn't make good fridges and other every day things etc simply because they had no money to do research in those areas.

Then they got their priorities wrong, again not sanction's problem.

[JohnRawls]

Then they got their priorities wrong, again not sanction's problem.

Well, it is easy to say this when you think of an open society with democracy and liberalism etc. When you live in a society with "under the siege" mentality then this always happens.(It just gets drastically worse for State capitalist/managed economies) China is moving heavily in that direction right now. The only thing missing is for the big economic markets to close the technological transfer off for China. Which is essentially what the US is doing overall. Japan started it some time ago. Europe Union is thinking about it but is unsure.

[Patrickov]

When you live in a society with "under the siege" mentality then this always happens. (It just gets drastically worse for State capitalist/managed economies) China is moving heavily in that direction right now.

China has been in a siege mentality since at least 960. Two (three if the one in 1127 was counted) conquests by northern tribes and a century of Western / Japanese intervention did not make them know any better.

EDIT: IMHO enough of China for now. I had a few threads to handle that so let's go back to Lukashenko.

[Beren]

The Soviet Union. Sanctions are not quick like war but over a long period of time they definitely work.

Well, even WWII didn't bring down the USSR, quick or slow, and I really wonder if how sanctions did. How come Cuba still stands, by the way, if even the USSR fell to them? You're just a hawk for the sake of being a hawk, I guess.

Anyway, as to Lukashenko's end, I'd find it quite possible that this was his last election and he'll be replaced with his eldest son Viktor the next time. I wonder if he's pro-Russian much because he has been accused of human rights violation and placed on the sanctions lists of the United States and the European Union, according to Wikipedia.

[Rancid]

I agree that sanctions don't work. What brought down the USSR was the USSR.

[Igor Antunov]

Putin will decide what happens in Belarus. It's physically too close to Moscow to be allowed much leeway. Whoever ends up in charge in Minsk will not be taking a step away from Russia in regards to relations and existing defense and airspace agreements.

This is very different to Ukraine, there is no anti-Russian sentiment. If Lukashenko can't control the situation Putin will.

[JohnRawls]

Holy shit. The whole country is in open protest and people refuse to work unless their demands are met. Never thought that it's possible to topple socialist dictators in a peaceful way. Belarus just might do it. I guess Europe is the cradle of modern civilization for a reason.

[Rugoz]

Holy shit. The whole country is in open protest and people refuse to work unless their demands are met.

Where to you get this stuff from?

[Beren]

This is very different to Ukraine, there is no anti-Russian sentiment. If Lukashenko can't control the situation Putin will.

Maybe there will be if he fucks this up, it seems he wanted to annex Belarus for a reason.

Belarus president Lukashenko urged to quit: 'Leave before it's too late' - Nobel laureate Svetlana Alexievich backs protests and warns president of civil war after ‘inhumane’ riot policing

[JohnRawls]

Where to you get this stuff from?

Telegram. All content is in Russian. You can search Nexta Belarus for example. That channel has like 10-20 percent of population of Belarus subscribed there nowadays. Since they are one of the few channels who managed to report things during the blackout.

Currently the channel name is Nexta live with around 2million subscribers. That's a lot for a country of around 10 million.

[Patrickov]

Currently the channel name is Nexta live with around 2million subscribers. That's a lot for a country of around 10 million.

Population-wise, Belarus is on the same level as Hong Kong.

[Political Interest]

How does Lukashenko sleep at night with the repressions?

Does his conscience not hurt him?