[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls. Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

Twenty-four percent (24%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending July 16, 2020. This week’s finding is unchanged from a week ago. By comparison, this number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office. Seventy percent (70%) of voters believe the nation is headed down the wrong track, down two points from last week. A year ago at this time, 42% said the United States was heading in the right direction, while 53% said it was on the wrong track.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of July 12-16, 2020 fell to 103.8, from 105.3 the week before. Voters seem to be comfortable with the immigration restrictions President Trump has put in place to counter the economic effects of the coronavirus.

51% of Likely U.S. Voters believe most reporters try to help the candidate they want to win when covering a political campaign, although that’s down dramatically from the 69% who felt that way during the 2016 presidential campaign. Forty-one percent (41%) disagree and say most try to offer unbiased coverage instead. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans and a plurality (49%) of voters not affiliated with either major political party think most reporters try to help the candidate they favor. But 57% of Democrats say most reporters are trying to provide unbiased coverage. Still, 59% of all voters think Biden, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, has received the best treatment from the media so far. Just 18% believe the media has treated Trump better. Twenty-three percent (23%) are undecided. Looking ahead, 50% expect most reporters to try to help Biden. Only five percent (5%) say most will try to help Trump instead. Thirty-five percent (35%) predict that most reporters will offer unbiased coverage.

66% of American Adults now oppose reducing the police budget in the community where they live to channel that money into more social services. That’s up from 59% in early June when we first asked this question. Just 23% favor defunding the cops where they live, down from 27% in the previous survey. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided. Calls for defunding the police are being aggressively championed by the Black Lives Matter movement, but even among black Americans, 57% are opposed to defunding the police in their home community. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of whites and 62% of other minority adults share that view. Sixty-one percent (61%) of all Americans believe that violent crime is likely to go up in communities that defund the police. Only 12% think violent crime is more likely to go down, while 20% predict it will remain about the same.

The latest national telephone and online survey finds Biden at 47% support among Likely U.S. Voters again this week to Trump’s 45%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate. Four percent (4%) are undecided. A week ago, Biden held a 47% to 44% advantage after leading Trump by 10 points – 50% to 40% - in our first weekly White House Watch survey. The new survey finds Trump with 81% of the Republican vote. Biden has the support of 74% of Democrats. Biden continues to lead among voters not affiliated with either major party: This week, it’s Biden 47%, Trump 36%, but 17% of these voters like another candidate or are undecided.

67% of Likely U.S. Voters now consider a choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden a choice that they are excited about. That’s up from 60% in late April. Twenty-eight percent (28%) still say they will simply be voting for the lesser of two evils, down from 34% three months ago. The good news for Biden is that 71% of Democrats are now enthusiastic about a Trump-Biden election, up from 57% in late April. Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republicans are excited by a choice between President Trump and the former vice president, compared to 71% in the earlier survey. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 51% are excited about a Trump-Biden matchup; 41% view it as a choice between the lesser of two evils. Seventy-five percent (75%) of all voters still favor the candidate they liked at the beginning of the year. Sixteen percent (16%) have switched candidates since then, while eight percent (8%) remain undecided.

55% of Likely U.S. Voters think federal law enforcement officials should be used to fight the growing level of violent crime in several major cities since the cities appear unable or unwilling to handle the problem themselves. Thirty-six percent (36%) oppose this federal anti-crime help. Eighty percent (80%) of Republicans favor the use of federal law enforcement in these cities, all of which are currently run by Democrat politicians. Democrats by a 53% to 39% margin are opposed. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 48% want the feds to get involved; 39% do not.

57% of American Adults who have children of elementary or secondary school age believe schools in their community should reopen in the fall. Thirty-two percent (32%) disagree, while 11% are undecided. Fifty-two percent (52%) of these adults think it will be bad for students if the schools do not reopen this fall. Just 31% say it will be good for the students instead. Six percent (6%) say it will have no impact if schools stay closed. Eleven percent (11%) are not sure. But then 46% of adults with school-age kids say online learning for stay-at-home students does not work for most students. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree and believe online learning does work. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided. Among all Americans, 41% believe schools should reopen where they live; 39% do not, while 20% are not sure. Fifty-four percent (54%) think it will be bad for the students if the schools do not reopen in the fall. Only 23% say it will be good for the students, while 10% predict no impact. A plurality (48%) also agrees that online learning does not work for most stay-at-home students.

75% of American Adults think the term “racism” refers to any discrimination by people of one race against another. Just 15% say it refers only to discrimination by white people against minorities. These findings have changed little in surveys for the past several years. Eighteen percent (18%) say most white Americans are racist. But 25% believe most black Americans are racist. Fifteen percent (15%) think most Hispanic-Americans are racist, while nearly as many (13%) say the same of most Asian-Americans. These findings parallel surveying done in 2013, although Americans were even more likely at that time to identify blacks as the most racist group. Among adults who think racism refers only to discrimination by whites, 36% consider most white Americans racist versus 21% who feel that way about most black Americans. Sixteen percent (16%) of these adults say most Hispanic-Americans are racist, and 19% feel most Asian-Americans are racist. Among Americans who identify racism as any discrimination by people of one race against another, 15% say most whites in this country are racist, compared to 27% of blacks. Fifteen percent (15%) of these adults think most Hispanic-Americans are racist, and 13% of most Asian-Americans.

And here's the President's job approval over the last week. Rasmussen's -2 for the week is even further below the RCP's current average of -14.25 (once the highest and lowest polls are dropped), again more than last week:


• Strongly Approve: 35% (-1%)
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 43% (-1%)
• Total Approve: 48% (+2)
• Total Disapprove: 50% (-2)

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 34% (+1%)
• Strongly Disapprove: 44% (-1%)
• Total Approve: 46%
• Total Disapprove: 52% (-1)

The RCP's latest average betting odds continues its swing toward Biden this week, +24.4 (+0.8 from last week).

[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls. Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

Twenty-six percent (26%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending July 23, 2020. This week’s finding is up two points from a week ago. By comparison, this number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of July 19-23, 2020 rose slightly to 104.7 from 103.8 the week before but remains consistent with surveying since the beginning of June.

65% of Likely U.S. Voters favor a $1 trillion-plus second coronavirus stimulus package. Just 25% oppose the plan which is still being negotiated but is expected to include more jobless benefits, stimulus checks and funds for reopening schools. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided. Eighty-four percent (84%) are concerned, however, that members of Congress will include costly items in the massive stimulus package that have nothing to do with the coronavirus. This includes 60% who are Very Concerned. Just 13% are not very or Not At All Concerned that the stimulus package will be padded with political pork.

50% of Likely U.S. Voters feel China is primarily to blame for the worldwide spread of the coronavirus. Thirty-six percent (36%) disagree, while 14% are not sure. Republicans (72%) are far more likely than Democrats (37%) and voters not affiliated with either major political party (44%) to blame China. But 53% of all voters now think China should help pay at least some of the financial costs that have resulted from the global transmission of the coronavirus which originated in a Chinese city. That’s up from 42% when Rasmussen Reports first asked this question in mid-March. Thirty-one percent (31%) say China should not have to pay, down from 36% four months ago. Sixteen percent (16%) are undecided. Thirty-nine percent (39%) rate President Trump’s dealings with China since the outbreak of the coronavirus as good or excellent. Forty-five percent (45%) say he’s done a poor job.

The new national telephone and online survey finds Biden with 48% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 42%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) are undecided. A week ago, the race was nearly even, with Biden edging Trump by just two points, 47% to 45%. The former vice president led Trump by 10 points – 50% to 40% - in our first weekly White House Watch survey early this month.

11% of American Adults say they or someone in their immediate family has been diagnosed with COVID-19. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say their state is continuing to ease its coronavirus-related lockdown restrictions. However, 51% say their state is reinstating some of those restrictions because of a surge of new COVID-19 cases. Twelve percent (12%) are not sure. Unchanged from early June is the 51% of Americans who say they or an immediate family member have been able to return to work now that some coronavirus-related restrictions are being released.

18% of Likely U.S. Voters rate the way Congress is doing its job as good or excellent. Fifty-one percent (51%) say it’s doing a poor job. These findings have changed little over the past year. Congress’ positives hit a recent high of 24% in October 2018. Poor findings routinely ran in the 60s and 70s from 2011 through 2014. Thirty-three percent (33%) now believe their representative in Congress is the best possible person for the job, continuing the more positive assessment voters have had in recent years. Forty-two percent (42%) still disagree, while 26% are not sure. Similarly, 35% of voters think their local representative in Congress deserves to be reelected. Forty-two percent (42%) don’t share that view. Twenty-three percent (23%) are undecided. These views are consistent with findings over the last five years.

50% of Likely U.S. Voters believe political leaders in some major cities like Portland and Seattle are encouraging violent protests by limiting the police response. Thirty-one percent (31%) disagree. A sizable 19% are not sure. Republicans (72%) are much more likely than Democrats (33%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (48%) to think these political leaders are making it worse for themselves and their cities. Fifty-five percent (55%) of all voters believe most reporters identify with the protesters in violent protests situations. Just five percent (5%) say most reporters identify more with the police. Thirty-three percent (33%) feel most generally try to be impartial. Voters are far from convinced that the much-maligned police have been fighting back too much. Only 29% think most police departments are too aggressive in dealing with violent protesters. Slightly more (34%) believe they’re not aggressive enough. Thirty percent (30%) say the police response in most cases is about right.

30% of American Adults are less likely to watch sporting events that promote Black Lives Matter (BLM) versus 21% who are more likely to. Forty-three percent (43%) say such promotion will have no impact on their viewing habits. Among those who follow professional sports on television, in person, on the radio or online once a week or less, roughly 35% say they are less likely to watch events that promote BLM. But among those who follow pro sports more than once a week, 28% are more likely to watch an event that promotes BLM; only 15% are less likely to watch.

And here's the President's job approval over the last week. Rasmussen's -5 for the week narrows the distance from the RCP's current average of -11.3 (once the highest and lowest polls are dropped), again more than last week:


• Strongly Approve: 36% (+1%)
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 45% (+2%)
• Total Approve: 47% (-1)
• Total Disapprove: 52% (+2)

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 34%
• Strongly Disapprove: 44%
• Total Approve: 47% (+1)
• Total Disapprove: 52%

The RCP's latest average betting odds swung back just a touch toward Trump this week, to Biden +24 (-0.4 from last week).

[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls. Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

Twenty-six percent (26%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending July 30, 2020. This week’s finding is the same as from a week ago. By comparison, this number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of July 26-30, 2020 fell to 102.3 from 104.7 the week before as President Trump further restricts access to foreign workers to help Americans get back to work.

32% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the mob violence that has continued for weeks in several major cities is primarily legitimate outrage over the police. Fifty-seven percent (57%) think instead that it’s mostly criminals taking advantage of the situation. Twelve percent (12%) are not sure. This is comparable to attitudes when rioting flared up in Ferguson, Missouri following a police shooting in the summer of 2014 but slightly less critical of the protesters than Americans were following the 2015 violent riots in Baltimore. Like those protests, the current mob violence is aimed at alleged race-driven police brutality, but only 21% of voters think it is likely to improve the criminal justice situation in America. Fifty-one percent (51%) believe the mob violence will make the criminal justice situation worse. Seventeen percent (17%) say it will have no impact, while 12% are undecided.

83% of Likely U.S. Voters say the federal government should not play a role in deciding where people can live. Just 10% disagree. Sixty-five percent (65%) still say it is not the government’s job to diversify neighborhoods in America so that people of different income levels live together. But that’s down from 83% when Rasmussen Reports first asked this question in mid-2015 as the Obama administration prepared to release its new housing regulations. Twenty-three percent (23%) now say that diversifying neighborhoods is a government role, up from eight percent (8%) five years ago. Democrats are stronger advocates of efforts by the government to diversify neighborhoods than Republicans and voters not affiliated with either major party are. But even among voters in former President Obama’s party, 56% say it’s not the government’s job to diversify neighborhoods, a view shared by 73% of Republicans and 68% of unaffiliated voters. Little changed from the previous survey is the 40% of all voters who say the racial or ethnic make-up of the neighborhood was important in deciding where they live now, with 19% who say it was Very Important. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say the racial and ethic make-up of the neighborhood was not important to their decision, including 28% who say it was Not At All Important. For blacks (63%), the racial or ethnic make-up of their neighborhood was much more important than it was to whites (35%) and other minority voters (44%).

The new national telephone and online survey released last Wednesday finds Biden with 48% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 45%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while another three percent (3%) remain undecided. A week ago, Biden had a 48% to 42% advantage. The former vice president has led Trump in every weekly survey to date. The new survey finds the president with 77% of the Republican vote. Biden has the support of just as many Democrats (77%). The candidates are virtually tied among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

18% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the November presidential election should be delayed because of the coronavirus threat if necessary. That’s down from 25% in mid-March when Rasmussen Reports first asked this question. Fifty-three percent (53%) still favor voting by mail in their state because of the coronavirus, but support is down from 64% in April. Forty-one percent (41%) are now opposed, up from 27% in the previous survey. Sixty-five percent (65%) of Democrats and 56% of voters not affiliated with either major party support voting by mail in their home state, compared to only 36% of Republicans. Fifty-six percent (56%) of all voters remain concerned that the increased use of voting by mail will lead to more voter fraud, with 40% who are Very Concerned. This compares to 58% and 36% respectively in April.

66% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Trump identifies more with the police in violent protests situations. Just 11% think he identifies more with the protesters, while 15% say he tries to be impartial. By contrast, 60% believe most national Democratic leaders like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi identify more with the protesters in violent protest situations. Only eight percent (8%) feel they identify more with the police. Twenty-three percent (23%) think they try to be impartial. Similarly, following anti-police protests in September 2016, voters said then-candidate Trump identified more with the police, while President Obama and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton were more likely to identify with the protesters. Separate surveying finds that 55% of voters think most reporters identify with the protesters in violent protest situations. Just five percent (5%) say most reporters identify more with the police, but 30% believe most try to be impartial.

49% of American Adults think it’s likely a coronavirus vaccine will be available by the end of the year, but nearly as many (46%) consider that unlikely. This includes 15% who say an end-of-the-year vaccine is Very Likely and 19% who say it’s Not At All Likely. Thirty-three percent (33%) would be willing to participate in a clinical trial of a potential coronavirus vaccine if it would speed the development of one. Fifty-two percent (52%) would not, but 14% are undecided. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Americans say they’re likely to get the anti-COVID-19 vaccination when it becomes available, with 43% who are Very Likely to do so. But that’s down from 70% and 53% respectively in late April.

52% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the United States needs stricter gun control laws, but that’s down from a record 64% a year ago following mass shootings in Texas and Ohio. Forty-two percent (42%) oppose additional gun control. Prior to last year in surveys since 2008, support for stricter gun control had risen from a low of 40% to a previous high of 56%. Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters say they or someone in their household now owns a gun. Among those with a gun in the house, 27% say they or someone in their family has purchased one within the last six months.

As the president employs federal agents to help quell violent protests in some cities and the coronavirus lockdown continues, he earned a monthly job approval of 47% in July. That’s up from 45% in June but still below his high to date for the year of 49% in February. In 2019, Trump’s monthly approval ran from a low of 44% in January to a high of 50% in April. He ended the year at 49%. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapproved of the president’s job performance this July, down two points from the month before.

And here's the President's job approval over the last week. Rasmussen's -2 for the week increases the distance from the RCP's current average of -12.1 (once the highest and lowest polls are dropped), again more than last week:


• Strongly Approve: 36%
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 43% (-2%)
• Total Approve: 48% (+1)
• Total Disapprove: 50% (-2)

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 35% (+1%)
• Strongly Disapprove: 44%
• Total Approve: 47%
• Total Disapprove: 51% (-1%)

The RCP's latest average betting odds continues to swing back toward Trump this week, to Biden +20.2 (-3.8 from last week).

And a few more stats provided by RealClearPolitics that I think I'm going to copy weekly up to the election:

RCP National Average: Biden 49.1 Trump 42.7 Spread Biden +6.4
Battleground States Average: Biden 48.9 Trump 44 Spread Biden +4.9

Electoral College Map: Biden 212 Trump 115 Toss Ups 211
Electoral College No Toss Ups: Biden 352 Trump 186

Battlegrounds
Wisconsin: Biden 48.0 Trump 43.0 Spread Biden +5.0
North Carolina: Biden 49.3 Trump 44.7 Spread Biden +7.5
Georgia: Biden 45.6 Trump 47.2 Spread Trump +1.6
Florida: Biden 49.7 Trump 45.7 Spread Biden +4.0
Pennsylvania: Biden 48.7 Trump 44.0 Spread Biden +4.7
Arizona: Biden 48.7 Trump 45.0 Spread Biden +3.7
Ohio: Biden 47.0 Trump 44.7 Spread Biden +2.3
Michigan: Biden 49.0 Trump 41.5 Spread Biden +7.5
Iowa: Biden 45.0 Trump 46.7 Spread Trump +1.7
New Hampshire: Biden 51.0 Trump 41.7 Spread Biden +9.3
Missouri: Biden 43.3 Trump 49.7 Spread Trump +6.4
Texas: Biden 44.3 Trump 46.3 Spread Trump +2.0

2020 vs. 2016
Top Battlegrounds: 2020 D+4.9 2016 D+3.5 Spread Biden +1.4
RCP National Average: 2020 D6.4 2016 D+7.4 Spread Trump +1.0
Favorability Ratings: 2020 D+12.4 2016 D+17.7 Spread Trump +5.3

[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls. Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending August 6, 2020. This week’s finding is up two points from a week ago and the highest finding since the end of May. By comparison, this number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of August 2-6, 2020 inched up to 103.2 from 102.3 the week before.

39% of American Adults still think it’s a good thing that most teachers belong to public employee unions, but that’s down from 45% last year and back to levels measured several years ago. Thirty-three percent (33%) say it’s a bad thing most teachers are unionized, while 13% feel it has no impact. Fourteen percent (14%) are not sure. Thirty-nine percent (39%) believe teachers’ unions have too much say when it comes to the overall operation of local school systems. Twenty-four percent (24%) say they don’t have enough say, while 21% rate their level of power as about right. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided. Little changed from surveys in recent years are the 50% of Americans who think teachers’ unions are more interested in protecting their members’ jobs than in the quality of education. Thirty-three percent (33%) disagree and think the unions put the quality of education first. Seventeen percent (17%) are not sure.

59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely. Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party. However, only 45% of all voters say Biden’s choice of a running mate is important to their vote this fall, including 23% who say it’s Very Important. This compares to 76% who say generally speaking that a candidate’s vice presidential nominee is important to their vote, with 34% who feel it’s Very Important.

Former Ohio governor and unsuccessful GOP presidential candidate John Kasich has defected to Democrat Joe Biden. But most voters say it will have no impact on the upcoming election. 13% of Likely U.S. Voters think President Trump will be helped by Kasich’s move, while 22% believe he will be hurt instead. However, 51% say the defection by the longtime Trump critic will have no impact. Democrats (33%) are a lot more convinced than Republicans (11%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (21%) that Trump will be hurt by Kasich’s move.

The new national telephone and online survey finds Biden with 49% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 43%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while another four percent (4%) remain undecided. A week ago, Biden had a 48% to 45% advantage. The former vice president has led Trump in every weekly survey to date. Just one of the five nights in the latest survey follows the Harris announcement. So the full impact on the race of Biden’s choice won’t be seen until next week.

When asked which is closer to their own thinking, 50% of Likely U.S. Voters say the police should crack down on the protests to bring them to an end. 38% disagree and believe the protests should be allowed to continue until the protesters decide to end them. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided. There’s sharp partisan disagreement on this question, though. While 75% of Republicans and a plurality (47%) of unaffiliated voters think the police should crack down on the protests, just 31% of Democrats agree. Fifty-six percent (56%) of Democrats say the protests should be permitted to continue until the protesters want to end them.

76% of Likely Democratic Voters have a favorable impression of Harris, including 48% who have a Very Favorable impression. Just 18% of Democrats have an unfavorable view of California’s former attorney general, with 11% who say Very Unfavorable. Among all voters, nearly half (49%) view Harris favorably and 44% view her unfavorable, with 28% who say Very Favorable and 33% who say Very Unfavorable. Twenty-four percent (24%) of all voters say Biden’s VP choice will make them more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket in November. Just as many (24%) say it will make them less likely to vote for Biden now that Harris is by his side. Half (50%) say this week’s announcement will have no impact when it comes to their vote. By comparison, when then-candidate Donald Trump chose Indiana Governor Mike Pence as his running mate in 2016, only 16% said they were more likely to vote for Trump because of his choice of Pence as his running mate, and just as many (16%) said the selection made them less likely to vote for the likely Republican nominee. Sixty-four percent (64%) said adding Pence to the ticket will have no impact on their voting decision. Black voters (37%) are more likely than white voters (28%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (25%) to hold a Very Favorable opinion of Harris, who would be the first woman of color to hold the office of vice president if elected. Thirty-two percent (32%) of black voters say Biden’s VP announcement makes them more likely to vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee in November, but just as many (32%) say it makes them less likely to vote for them. Twenty-eight percent (28%) of these voters say it will have no impact on their vote.

Economic confidence slowed this month, dropping four points from July to 110.8 in this month’s Rasmussen Reports Economic Index. Enthusiasm about the economy started to grow immediately following Donald Trump's election as president in November 2016 and had jumped to 147.8 by January 2020. Then it began its steep decline in February as the coronavirus lockdown threw Americans out of work and closed many businesses and has started working it's way up again in recent months. In President Obama’s final years in office, this index reached a high of 121.5 in January 2015 and was at 108.1 his last month in the White House.

And here's the President's job approval over the last week. Rasmussen's -3 for the week closes the distance a bit with the RCP's current average of -11.4 (once the highest and lowest polls are dropped):


• Strongly Approve: 36%
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 45% (+2%)
• Total Approve: 48%
• Total Disapprove: 51% (+1)

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 36% (+1%)
• Strongly Disapprove: 44%
• Total Approve: 48% (+1)
• Total Disapprove: 51%

The RCP's latest average betting odds continues to swing back toward Trump this week, to Biden +17.6 (-2.6 from last week).

RCP National Average: Biden 49.3 Trump 41.6 Spread Biden +6.4 (D+1.3)
Battleground States Average: Biden 48.7 Trump 44.4 Spread Biden +4.3 (R+0.6)

Electoral College Map: Biden 212 Trump 115 Toss Ups 211
Electoral College No Toss Ups: Biden 337 Trump 201 (R+15)

Battlegrounds
Arizona: Biden 47.0 Trump 45.0 Spread Biden +2.0 (R+1.7)
Georgia: Biden 45.7 Trump 46.7 Spread Trump +1.0 (D+0.6)
Florida: Biden 50.3 Trump 45.3 Spread Biden +5.0 (D+1)
Iowa: Biden 45.0 Trump 46.7 Spread Trump +1.7 (R+0)
Michigan: Biden 48.7 Trump 42.0 Spread Biden +6.7 (R+0.8 )
North Carolina: Biden 46.3 Trump 47.0 Spread Trump +0.7 (R+8.2)
Minnesota (new): Biden 50.0 Trump 43.0 Spread Biden +7.0
Nevada (new): Biden 48.3 Trump 44.3 Spread Biden +4.0
Ohio: Biden 47.0 Trump 44.7 Spread Biden +2.3 (D+0)
Pennsylvania: Biden 49.7 Trump 43.3 Spread Biden +6.4 (D+1.7)
Texas: Biden 44.3 Trump 46.3 Spread Trump +2.0 (R+0)
Wisconsin: Biden 50.0 Trump 43.5 Spread Biden +6.5 (D+1.5)

2020 vs. 2016
Top Battlegrounds: 2020 D+4.3 2016 D+4.8 Spread Trump +0.5 (R+1.9)
RCP National Average: 2020 D+7.7 2016 D+6.3 Spread Biden +1.4 (D+2.4)
Favorability Ratings: 2020 D+15.2 2016 D+17.4 Spread Trump +2.2 (R-3.1)

[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls. Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

Thirty percent (30%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending August 13, 2020. This week’s finding is up two points from a week ago and the first time since the end of May that the right direction number broke out of the high 20s. By comparison, this number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of August 9-13, 2020 rose again to 104.1, up from 103.2 the previous week.

28% of American Adults favor allowing college athletes to unionize, up only slightly from 25% in March 2014 when we first asked this question. But while 38% remain opposed, that’s down 15 points from 53% in the earlier survey. Thirty-four percent (34%) are now undecided. Thirty-five percent (35%) believe college athletes should be paid. Forty-five percent (45%) disagree, while 20% are not sure.

48% of Likely U.S. Voters think the Israel-UAE agreement is likely to facilitate peace in the Middle East, with 14% who say it’s Very Likely. Forty-two percent (42%) consider peace in the region as unlikely, including 10% who feel it’s Not At All Likely. A new high of 40% now rate the level of U.S. involvement in the Middle East as about right. That’s up from a low of 17% in June 2015 and even more optimistic than the 38% who felt that way in December 2018 after President Trump’s announcement that he was removing U.S. troops from Syria. Thirty-two percent (32%) still think America is too involved in the region, but that figure was at 54% in 2013. Just 15% now say we’re not involved enough, a finding that ran in the low 30s during President Obama’s last two years in office.

The new national telephone and online survey finds Biden with 48% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while another four percent (4%) remain undecided. A week ago, Biden led by six points – 49% to 43%. The former vice president has bested Trump in every weekly survey to date, with support as high as 50%. The president has never earned more than 45% of the vote.

53% of Likely U.S. Voters regard Biden as liberal, with 30% who say he’s Very Liberal. Only 14% rate him Very or somewhat conservative, while 28% consider the former vice president a moderate. Similarly, his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris of California, is seen as liberal by 53%, including 33% who feel she’s Very Liberal. Just 16% view Harris as Very or somewhat conservative. Twenty-three percent (23%) think she’s a moderate. Generally speaking, 60% or more of voters viewed Obama as a liberal during his years in the White House. The number who considered Clinton a liberal ran in the mid- to upper 50s.

19% of Likely U.S. Voters say they have changed the way they were going to vote after watching a national political convention. The vast majority (74%), however, haven’t been swayed. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Thirty-five percent (35%) say they are more likely to watch a convention this year than in previous years. Twenty-one percent (21%) are less likely to do so. Fifty-three percent (53%) are likely to watch at least some of this week’s Democratic National Convention, including 30% who are Very Likely to do so. Among Democrats, 74% are likely to watch, with 51% who are Very Likely to tune in. Slightly more voters (59%) say they’re likely to watch next week’s Republican National Convention, including 29% who are Very Likely to watch. Among Republicans, 81% are likely to catch at least some of their party’s convention, with 49% who are Very Likely to. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 44% are likely to watch at least some of the Democratic convention; 52% are likely to tune into some of the GOP conclave.

65% of Likely U.S. Voters describe the president in political terms as conservative, with 29% who say he is Very Conservative. Seventeen percent (17%) regard Trump as a moderate. Just 10% say he’s somewhat or Very Liberal. By comparison, 72% of voters said GOP presidential nominee Romney was a conservative at this stage of the campaign eight years ago, including 30% who said he was Very Conservative. Only 34% viewed then-candidate Trump as a conservative in February 2016, while slightly more (36%) felt he was a moderate. Even after his first few months in office, only 44% identified him as conservative, while 31% said he was moderate. Interestingly, many voters in demographic groups largely opposed to Trump's reelection are more likely to still view him as a moderate.

16% of Likely U.S. Voters believe most politicians keep their campaign promises. Seventy percent (70%) say they do not. Fourteen percent (14%) are undecided. Still, that’s a noticeable improvement from the four percent (4%) who said most politicians kept their campaign promises when we first asked this question in November 2009. But then 45% of voters believe Trump has kept his campaign promise more than most presidents. Forty percent (40%) say he’s kept his promises less than most. This compares to 38% and 33% in March 2018. Twelve percent (12%) rate his performance about the same as most presidents. Democrats are the most critical, with 66% saying the GOP president has kept his campaign promises less than most presidents. But 68% of his fellow Republicans and a plurality (47%) of voters not affiliated with either major party think Trump has kept his promises more than most.

And here's the President's job approval over the last week. Rasmussen's +0 for the week widens the distance with the RCP's current average of -11 (once the highest and lowest polls are dropped) by 2.6:


• Strongly Approve: 37% (+1%)
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 42% (-3%)
• Total Approve: 49% (+1%)
• Total Disapprove: 49% (-2%)

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 36%
• Strongly Disapprove: 44%
• Total Approve: 48%
• Total Disapprove: 50% (-1%)

The RCP's latest average betting odds continues to swing back significantly toward Trump this week, to Biden +12.8 (-4.8 from last week).

RCP National Average: Biden 49.8 Trump 42.2 Spread Biden +7.6 (R+0.1)
Battleground States Average: Biden 48.6 Trump 44.4 Spread Biden +4.2 (R+0.1)

A slight change in how I'm reporting the battleground polls and therefore the Electoral College No Toss Ups. The RCP collection of polls includes some that are rather old and so obsolete, so I ditched all the polls older than one month and recomputed. That did lower a few numbers, but only flipped one state--Ohio. Note that for Nevada, the last poll taken was back in January, so take those numbers with a massive dose of salt.

Electoral College Map: Biden 212 Trump 115 Toss Ups 211
Electoral College No Toss Ups: Biden 319 Trump 219

Battlegrounds
Arizona: Biden 47.0 Trump 45.0 Spread Biden +2.0
Georgia: Biden 46.0 Trump 46.0 Spread Trump +0
Florida: Biden 50.3 Trump 45.3 Spread Biden +5.0
Iowa: Biden 46.0 Trump 48 Spread Trump +2
Michigan: Biden 48.7 Trump 42.0 Spread Biden +6.7
North Carolina: Biden 46.4 Trump 47.0 Spread Trump +0.6 (D+0.1)
Minnesota: Biden 48.5 Trump 47.0 Spread Biden +1.5
Nevada: Biden 47.0 Trump 39.0 Spread Biden +8.0 (January poll)
Ohio: Biden 45.0 Trump 46.0 Spread Trump +1.0
Pennsylvania: Biden 49.5 Trump 43.8 Spread Biden +5.7 (R+0.7)
Texas: Biden 42.0 Trump 48.5 Spread Trump +6.5
Wisconsin: Biden 50.0 Trump 43.5 Spread Biden +6.5

2020 vs. 2016
Top Battlegrounds: 2020 D+4.2 2016 D+5.1 Spread Trump +0.9 (R+0.4)
RCP National Average: 2020 D+7.6 2016 +4.5 Spread Biden +3.1 (D+1.7)
Favorability Ratings: 2020 D+13 2016 D+19.2 Spread Trump +6.2 (R+4)

[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls. Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

Thirty percent (30%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending August 20, 2020. This week’s finding is unchanged from a week ago. By comparison, this number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of August 16-20, 2020 has fallen back to 101.5 from 104.1 the week before. This is the lowest finding since late May.

9% of Likely U.S. Voters consider Obama a better president than Trump. But nearly as many (47%) disagree and say Trump’s been better. Just 31% are more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Obama. Thirty-six percent (36%) are less likely to vote for that candidate. Thirty percent (30%) say Obama’s endorsement will have no impact on their vote. Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters consider Obama one of the best presidents ever. Thirty-seven percent (37%) think he was one of the worst ever, while 29% rate him somewhere in between.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Likely U.S. Voters say they are likely to cast their vote in this year’s presidential election in person at the polls. 26% say they are more likely to vote by absentee ballot, while another 12% think they’re likely to use some other kind of mail-in ballot. Republicans (77%) are much more likely than Democrats (47%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (54%) to anticipate voting in person despite the continuing coronavirus situation. Fifty percent (50%) of Democrats say they are more likely to vote absentee or by some other mail-in ballot, compared to 22% of GOP voters and 43% of unaffiliateds.

46% of Likely U.S. Voters think Trump who spent the vast majority of his life in the business world is less ethical than most politicians. This finding has changed little in past surveying since 2016. A new high of 32%, however, believe the president is more ethical, while 18% rate his ethics as about the same as those of most politicians. Forty percent (40%) say Biden, a career politician, is less ethical than most in politics, while 28% view him as more ethical. Twenty-seven percent (27%) think the former vice president’s ethics are about the same. By comparison, at this stage of the presidential campaign four years ago, 46% of voters said Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was less ethical than her political peers. Only 16% thought she was more ethical, while 37% viewed her ethics as about the same as most politicians. To put it all in perspective, a sizable 73% of voters consider themselves more ethical than most politicians. Only seven percent (7%) say they’re less ethical. Fourteen percent (14%) rate their own ethics as about the same as most politicos.

40% of Likely U.S. Voters say Trump’s views are closest to their own when they think about the major issues facing the nation. Thirty-four percent (34%) say Biden’s views are closest to their own. Nine percent (9%) identify most with the average Republican in Congress, while slightly more (11%) line up most with the average congressional Democrat when it comes to the major issues. Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans say Trump’s views are closest to their own, compared to 57% of Democrats who say the same of Biden. Democrats (20%) are more likely than Republicans (11%) to identify most with their party’s average representative in Congress.

46% of Likely U.S. Voters think it’s likely the 2020 presidential election will be decided on Election Day, Nov. 3. Nearly as many (44%) say it’s more likely that the winner will not be known until days, possibly weeks, after Election Day. Ten percent (10%) are not sure. Forty-one percent (41%) agree with Clinton that Biden should not concede the election “under any circumstances” if the results are close. Forty-two percent (42%) disagree, with 18% undecided.

52% of Likely U.S. Voters correctly believe that the president was critical of radical protesters on both sides of the incident but added that there were also “very fine people” on both sides who were present that day. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say instead that Trump just praised white supremacists in the incident as “very fine people.” The latter version is the one Biden tweeted on August 12 of this year saying, “Three years ago today, white supremacists descended on Charlottesville with torches in hand and hate in their hearts. Our president said they were ‘very fine people.’ ” Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republicans and 54% of voters not affiliated with either political party accurately recall what Trump said, but just 31% of Democrats agree. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Democrats remember it the way Biden does, as do 19% of Republicans and 37% of unaffiliated voters.

And here's the President's job approval over the last week. Rasmussen's -2 for the week narrows the distance with the RCP's current average of -10.9 (once the highest and lowest polls are dropped) by 2.1:


• Strongly Approve: 38% (+1%)
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 43% (+1%)
• Total Approve: 48% (-1%)
• Total Disapprove: 50% (+1%)

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 37% (+1%)
• Strongly Disapprove: 43% (-1%)
• Total Approve: 48%
• Total Disapprove: 50%

[ThirdTerm]

Rasmussen's polls are known to have a pro-Republican bias, which use research techniques that make its polls favor Republicans. But the new poll from the conservative-leaning polling group looks great for the Trump campaign.

Biden, Trump In Near Tie
Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Joe Biden’s lost ground since the close of the Democratic National Convention, and he and President Trump are now running neck-and-neck in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey.

The new national telephone and online survey finds Biden with 46% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 45%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A week ago, Biden led by four points – 48% to 44%. The former vice president has bested Trump in every weekly survey to date, but this week’s 46% is his lowest level of support in any survey. The president has never earned more than 45% of the vote. It remains to be seen if he gets any kind of bounce from the ongoing Republican National Convention.

The new survey finds Biden with 76% of the Democratic vote. Trump has the support of 77% of Republicans. The candidates are tied among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

White House Watch will be posted at noon Eastern every Wednesday until Labor Day. The matchup will be posted daily Monday through Friday from Labor Day until Election Day, Tuesday, November 3.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted August 19-20 and 23-25, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public ... atch_aug26

[Drlee]

Trump is going to win. I have not seen a Biden ad or a Lincoln project ad in a long time and I live in a swing state.

Trump;s efforts at voter suppression will succeed.

Social Security will go away. Probably not for people my age but certainly for any of you under about 55. You will also lose medicaid for the times when you could not buy insurance on a bet. And now that the republicans have figured out how to win without catering to any voters at all except a few to dumb to understand that they are being fucked the future is clear. There will be no democracy in the US in 20 yeas. About the time that Barron will take over.

[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls, a little early for Labor Day weekend (everyone in the US, have fun and be safe). Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending August 27, 2020. This week’s finding is up one point from a week ago. By comparison, this number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office. Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters believe the nation is headed down the wrong track, down two points from last week.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of August 23-27, 2020 fell - for the second week in a row – to 100.7. It was at 101.5 last week and at 104. 1 two weeks ago. This is the lowest finding since mid-May.

63% of Likely U.S. Voters think America is a more divided nation than it was four years ago. Only nine percent (9%) say the country is less divided, while 23% see the level of division as about the same. Still this is an improvement over four years ago. Seventy-two percent (72%) described America as a more divided nation as the Obama presidency came to a close. Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters say Trump is more to blame for the division in America, while 45% blame his political opponents more. This compares to 52% and 38% respectively last October. But a plurality (46%) now believes that America will become more divided if Trump is defeated by Joe Biden in the 2020 election, up from 38% last fall. Thirty-five percent (35%) say the country would be less divided. Eighteen percent (18%) think the level of division would be about the same.

59% of Likely U.S. Voters rate Trump’s record as more important to their vote than Biden’s ideas for the next four years. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say Biden’s ideas are more important. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Republicans and 62% of voters not affiliated with either major party consider the GOP president’s record more important to their vote, but just 34% of Democrats agree. Among voters in the opposing party, 65% put more emphasis on Biden’s ideas for the next four years. Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans are now excited about the choice between Trump and Biden, up from 75% in mid-July. This compares to 71% of Democrats, unchanged from six weeks ago, and 54% of unaffiliated voters. Among all likely voters, 70% are excited about the Trump-Biden contest, while only 23% now say they will simply be voting for the lesser of two evils. The number excited about the contest is up from 60% in late April and 67% in July.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey read Likely U.S. Voters a short list of major issues and asked them which candidate they trusted more. When it comes to the economy and job creation, 49% trust Trump more, while 46% have more confidence in Biden. On national security, Biden has a 49% to 47% trust advantage over the president. Perhaps surprisingly given Biden’s hesitation to criticize the violent protests in many cities until the last few days, the Democrat has a 48% to 46% trust lead on the issue of public safety. Biden leads by a negligible one point when it comes to immigration: 48% trust him more, while 47% have more faith in Trump. Only on the environment is their significant difference, with 53% who trust Biden more to handle this issue. Forty percent (40%) trust the president more. In past presidential cycles, the Democratic nominee has always been the one most trusted on environmental issues. Rasmussen Reports will revisit these questions as Election Day approaches.

74% of American Adults remain concerned personally about the coronavirus threat, with 47% who are Very Concerned. This compares to 78% and 46% respectively in late June. Twenty-five percent (25%) don’t share that concern, but that includes only eight percent (8%) who are Not At All Concerned. Eighty-four percent (84%) were concerned about the coronavirus threat in late March, up from 56% when the virus first reached these shores in late January. Fifty-two percent (52%) of Americans say they are more concerned about the health impact of the coronavirus than its financial impact. Thirty-eight percent (38%) worry more about its financial impact. Ten percent (10%) are undecided. Among those who are Very Concerned personally about the virus threat, 84% put its health impact first versus 10% who worry more about its financial impact.

The new national telephone and online survey finds Biden with 49% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 45%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while another three percent (3%) remain undecided. A week ago, Biden and Trump were in a near tie – 46% to 45%. The former vice president has bested Trump in every weekly survey to date. The president has never earned more than 45% of the vote and doesn’t appear to have gotten any kind of bounce from last week’s Republican National Convention. The new survey finds Biden with 81% of the Democratic vote and a three-point advantage among voters not affiliated with either major party. Trump has the support of 81% of Republicans.

President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden are running dead even in Pennsylvania.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in the Keystone State finds Trump and Biden with 46% support each. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and another four percent (4%) remain undecided. Among the 82% of voters who say they are certain now how they will vote in the presidential election, Trump holds a slight 51% to 49% advantage. The president carries 86% of the Republican vote and leads among voters not affiliated with either major party by 11 points. Biden takes 81% of the Democrat vote. Trump leads among men and middle-aged voters. Biden carries women, those under 40 and seniors. Worrisome for the former vice president is his 67% black support, low for a Democrat, with the incumbent earning 27% of the black vote in Pennsylvania. Trump leads among whites and other minority voters.

And here's the President's job approval over the last week. Rasmussen's -1 for the week narrows slightly the distance with the RCP's current average of -9.5 (once the highest and lowest polls are dropped) by 0.4:


• Strongly Approve: 39% (+1%)
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 43%
• Total Approve: 49% (+1%)
• Total Disapprove: 50%

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 37%
• Strongly Disapprove: 43%
• Total Approve: 48%
• Total Disapprove: 50%

[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls. Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending September 3, 2020. This week’s finding is the same as a week ago. By comparison, this number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office. Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters believe the nation is headed down the wrong track, up one point from last week.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of August 30-September 3, 2020 rose to 103.0 from 100.7 the week before. The latter was the lowest finding since mid-May.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Wisconsin shows Biden with 51% support to Trump’s 43%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided. Among the 84% of Wisconsin voters who are already certain how they will vote, Biden leads 54% to 46%. Biden carries 93% of Wisconsin Democrats and leads among voters not affiliated with either party by a commanding 17 points. Trump wins 90% of the state’s Republicans. Biden is well ahead among women, voters under 40 and senior citizens. He carries 69% of the black vote and has a slight advantage among whites and other minority voters in Wisconsin.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in the Buckeye State finds Biden leading the president 49% to 45%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while another three percent (3%) remain undecided. Among the 85% of Ohio voters already certain how they will vote, Biden has a narrower 51% to 49% lead. The former vice president carries 90% of the state’s Democrats and leads among voters not affiliated with either major party by 13 points. Trump wins 87% of Republicans. Trump leads among men and middle-aged voters. Biden wins women, those under 40 and seniors. The Democrat carries 78% of the black vote in the state and has a narrow lead among other minority voters. Trump has a seven-point advantage among whites.

17% of Likely U.S. Voters who Strongly Approve of the job President Trump is doing say they are less likely to let others know how they intend to vote in the upcoming election. By comparison, just half as many (8%) of those who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s performance say the same. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of those who Strongly Approve are More Likely to tell others whom they plan to vote for compared to previous presidential campaigns. But that compares to 66% of voters who Strongly Disapprove. A similar but narrower gap is evident between the two parties. Sixteen percent (16%) of Republicans are less likely to tell others how they intend to vote, compared to 12% of Democrats. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of GOP voters and 60% of Democrats are more likely to tell this year.

The new national telephone and online survey finds Biden with 48% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 46%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while three percent (3%) remain undecided. A week ago, Biden held a four-point lead following the two national party conventions. The former vice president has bested Trump in every weekly survey since the beginning of July, but this is the first time Trump has edged above 45%. The new survey finds Biden with 79% of the Democrat vote, while Trump has the support of 80% of Republicans. The two are nearly tied among voters not affiliated with either major party.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Michigan finds Democratic nominee Joe Biden with an eight-point lead – 51% to 43% - over Trump. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and another three percent (3%) are undecided. Among the 86% of Michigan voters already certain of how they will vote, Biden leads 55% to 45%. Trump carried Michigan over Democrat Hillary Clinton by 0.23% in 2016, the narrowest presidential margin in the state’s history. The former vice president wins 91% of the Democrat vote in Michigan and leads among those not affiliated with either major party by six points. Trump carries 90% of the Republican vote. Biden leads among both men and women and is ahead in all age groups except middle-aged voters. He captures 73% of the black voter. The two are tied among whites and other minority voters.

Incumbent Democrat Gary Peters holds a comfortable lead over Republican challenger John James in Michigan’s sole 2020 U.S. Senate race. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Michigan shows Peters leading James 48% to 40%, with three percent (3%) who prefer some other candidate. Ten percent (10%) are undecided. Peters, a former state senator and U.S. congressman, was first elected to the Senate in 2014 with 54.6% of the vote. James, who would be Michigan’s first black U.S. senator if elected, is a West Point graduate and Army veteran. He ran unsuccessfully in 2018 against Michigan’s other incumbent Democratic senator, Debbie Stabenow. James wins 78% of the GOP vote, while Peters carries 81% of Democrats. The two are in a near tie among voters not affiliated with either major party. Peters leads among men and women and those of all ages, except middle-aged voters. Blacks appear conflicted, with the Democrat only carrying 58% of their vote. James wins 24% of the black vote. Six percent (6%) like someone else, and 12% are undecided.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in the Tar Heel State finds Trump with 48% support to Biden’s 46%. Three percent (3%) favor some other candidate, and another three percent (3%) remain undecided. Among the 83% of voters in the state who are already certain how they will vote this fall, the president leads 51% to 49%. Trump carried North Carolina over Democrat Hillary Clinton by nearly four points in the 2016 presidential election. The incumbent wins 88% of the Republican vote in the state and carries voters not affiliated with either major party by three. Biden has 81% support among Democrats. Biden has a narrow lead among women and a more sizable margin among those under 40. Trump carries men and older voters. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of blacks opt for the former vice president, 25% for Trump who leads among whites and other minority voters.

Incumbent Republican Thom Tillis is trailing Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham by three points in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in North Carolina shows Cunningham, a former state senator, ahead of Tillis 47% to 44%. Three percent (3%) like another candidate, while seven percent (7%) are undecided. Tillis, a former state House speaker, was first elected to the Senate in 2014, defeating Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan by just one point. Hagan passed away in 2019. Cunningham carries 79% of the Democrat vote, while Tillis earns a comparable 80% of Republicans. The two are tied among voters not affiliated with either major party. The two are also in a near tie among men, while Cunningham leads by seven among women voters. Middle-aged voters prefer the Republican; those of all other ages opt for the Democrat. Sixty-six percent (66%) of blacks support Cunningham, 28% Tillis. The incumbent leads among whites, while the two are again nearly tied among other minority voters.

And here's the President's job approval over the last week. Rasmussen's -1 for the week is the same as last week, but the distance widens slightly with the RCP's current average of -10.1 (once the highest and lowest polls are dropped) by 0.6:


• Strongly Approve: 39%
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 44% (+1)
• Total Approve: 49%
• Total Disapprove: 50%

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 38% (+1)
• Strongly Disapprove: 43%
• Total Approve: 49% (+1)
• Total Disapprove: 50%

[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls. Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

45% of American Adults think Trump should be given the Nobel Peace Prize for the new peace deals and keeping America out of new wars, among other things. Forty-six percent (46%) disagree.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of September 6-10, 2020 fell to 101.4 from 103.0 the week before.

In covering Biden, 67% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the media is more interested in where he stands on the issues than in creating controversies about him. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that only 19% think the media is more interested in Biden controversies. Thirteen percent (13%) are undecided. By contrast, only 41% think the media is more interested in where Trump stands on the issues. Forty-nine percent (49%) say they are more focused on creating controversies about him. Ten percent (10%) are not sure. Even among Democrats, just 53% feel the media is more interested in where Trump stands on the issues, compared to 73% who feel that way about media coverage of Biden. Most Republicans and voters not affiliated with either major party say the media is more interested in creating controversies when it comes to Trump but more interested in the issues when it comes to his Democrat rival.

42% of Likely U.S. Voters have had anti-police protests in their community this summer. Nearly half (48%) of these voters say the protests in their community have turned violent. Among all voters, 65% say the violent protests are important to their vote in the presidential election this fall, with 41% who say it’s Very Important. Among those who have had violent protests in their community, even more (76%) rate them important to their vote, including 54% who say they are Very Important. Sixty-three percent (63%) of these voters Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing versus 35% who Strongly Disapprove.

52% of Likely U.S. Voters rate Trump’s handling of the economy as good or excellent despite the pounding it’s taken this year from the coronavirus lockdown. That’s up from 39% in mid-2017 just after he took office and edges his previous high of 51% in October 2018. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say he’s doing a poor job. Forty-nine percent (49%) think the president is doing a good or excellent job handling national security issues. This, too, is up from 39% three years ago and the previous high of 47% in June of last year. Forty-one percent (41%) believe Trump is doing a poor job in this area. At this point in his presidency in mid-September 2012, 41% of voters said Barack Obama was doing a good or excellent job handling the economy, and 46% gave him positive marks for national security.

President Trump has now edged to a one-point lead over Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey. While statistically insignificant, it’s the first time Trump has been ahead.

The new national telephone and online survey finds the president with a 47% to 46% lead over Biden among Likely U.S. Voters. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The race has narrowed over the past two weeks. Biden had a two-point lead last week, but that survey also marked the first time Trump had edged above 45% over the past two-and-a-half months. Prior to this week, Biden has bested Trump in every weekly survey since White House Watch began at the beginning of July. The new survey finds Trump with 80% support among Republicans and a nine-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. Biden has 80% of the Democrat vote. Trump shows surprising strength among other minority voters, suggesting perhaps that he is attracting Hispanic support as violent racial protests continue in many major cities. It will be interesting to see if this support holds up in the weeks ahead.

59% of Likely U.S. Voters think there is a war on police going on. That’s up from 43% two years ago and up from a previous high of 58% in 2015. Just 29% disagree, while 12% are undecided. Fifty-nine percent (59%) also support the adoption of a Blue Lives Matter law in their state that would make attacks on police and first responders a hate crime and increase the penalties for such attacks. That’s unchanged from 2016 when Louisiana became the first of more than a dozen states to adopt such a law. Only 25% oppose a Blue Lives Matter law where they live. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters are concerned that deadly attacks on the police will lead to a shortage of police officers and reduce public safety where they live, with 44% who are Very Concerned. Thirty percent (30%) don’t share that concern, but that includes only 14% who are Not At All Concerned. Whites (63%) are bigger supporters of Blue Lives Matter laws than blacks (52%) and other minority voters (49%). But blacks (84%) are a lot more concerned than whites (66%) and other minorities (70%) about a potential shortage of police officers in their community.

45% of Likely U.S. Voters are more likely to contribute time or money to a political campaign his year. That compares to 34% two years ago. Twenty-nine percent (29%) are less likely to do so, while 19% say the likelihood is about the same as in previous election cycles. Among the 52% who say they have contributed time and money to a campaign in the past, 62% are more likely to do so this year, compared to 46% in 2018 which was not a presidential election year. Twenty-two percent (22%) of these voters are less likely to give time or money to a political campaign this year, while 13% rate the likelihood about the same. Partisan enthusiasm is about the same. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Democrats are more likely to give time or money this year, as are 43% of Republicans and 45% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

45% of American Adults think Trump should be given the Nobel Peace Prize for the new peace deals and keeping America out of new wars, among other things. Forty-six percent (46%) disagree. In 2018 when Trump directly confronted the North Korean threat, 42% said he should be given the Nobel Peace Prize. Forty-five percent (45%) disagreed, and 13% were undecided. Predictably, 73% of Republicans and those not affiliated with either major party by a 44% to 39% margin think Trump should get the Nobel Peace Prize. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Democrats do not. Only 42% of all Americans think former President Obama still deserves his Nobel Peace Prize awarded in 2009 just after he took office and before he had launched any major foreign policy initiatives. Critics complain that his failure to end the war in Afghanistan as promised and his use of drones to kill terrorists, among other things, negated the award.

And here's the President's job approval over the last week. Rasmussen's +5 for the week is substantially better than last week, and the best week for Trump since February 2017. Even with the RCP's current average dropping 1.2 to -8.9 (once the highest and lowest polls are dropped), the difference still widens by by 4.8.

This could just be a bump, or it could be the beginning of a trend--Trump's numbers have been inching upward since the beginning of August. Something like that happened with Obama in the last weeks of 2012, where IIRC his previously low approval ratings trended up until the election. I'm wondering if this could possibly be a case of people that have decided to vote for a candidate being disposed to think better of him:


• Strongly Approve: 40% (+1)
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 42% (-2)
• Total Approve: 52% (+3)
• Total Disapprove: 47% (-3)

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 39% (+1)
• Strongly Disapprove: 43%
• Total Approve: 49%
• Total Disapprove: 49% (-1)

[Drlee]

Fucking Rasmussen. They are running out of softballs.

[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls. Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending September 17, 2020. This week’s finding is up one point from a week ago. By comparison, this number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office. Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters believe the nation is headed down the wrong track, staying the same as last week.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of September 13-17, 2020 rose to 104.0 from 101.4 the week before. The Index is based on a series of questions designed to determine whether voters are moving toward an immigration system that encourages more immigration to the United States or a one that reduces the level of immigration here. All surveys are compared to a baseline – set the week of December 2-6, 2019 - which has been given an Index of 100. A weekly finding moving up over 100 indicates growing support for a more expansive immigration system. A weekly index number falling below 100 indicates increased support for a more restrictive immigration system. For three out of the four weeks prior to the latest survey, the index has been under 102.0 for the first time since May.

45% of all Likely U.S. Voters feel Trump should nominate someone to fill Ginsburg’s seat on the high court. But 51% say he should leave the position open for the winner of the 2020 presidential election. Eighty-three percent (83%) of Republicans think Trump should nominate someone. Just as many Democrats (84%) say that nomination should be made by the winner in November. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 44% say Trump should nominate someone now, while 48% believe he should wait. These findings are little changed from January when Rasmussen Reports asked voters what Trump should do if a Supreme Court vacancy opened up this year. In July 2018 when Justice Anthony Kennedy retired, 51% said the Senate should fill his vacancy as soon as possible, but 40% - and most Democrats - wanted it to wait until a new Senate was elected that November. Democrats hope to oust Trump this November, and some have even gone so far as to suggest violence against the U.S. Senate if it moves on a Supreme Court nomination before next year.

33% of Likely U.S. Voters agree with Barr’s statement last week that “…putting a national lockdown, stay at home orders, is like house arrest. Other than slavery which was a different kind of restraint, this is the greatest intrusion on civil liberties in American history.” Fifty-seven percent (57%) disagree, while 10% are not sure. Seventy-five percent (75%) of Democrats and 52% of voters not affiliated with either major party disagree with Barr, but Republicans are evenly divided: 43% agree; 43% disagree, while 15% are undecided. But then 74% of Democrats and a plurality (47%) of unaffiliated voters think the country underreacted to the COVID-19 threat. Just 28% of Republicans agree. Among all voters, 24% believe the United States overreacted to the coronavirus. Fifty-one percent (51%) say we underreacted, while 23% rate the response as about right. This finding is little changed from the first time Rasmussen Reports asked this question in late May.

Democratic nominee Joe Biden is back in the lead, just barely, in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey. The new national telephone and online survey finds Biden leading President Trump 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate. Just two percent (2%) are undecided. The race has narrowed over the past three weeks and is now reminiscent of the closing weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign when Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton seesawed up and down within one or two points of each other in Rasmussen Reports polling. Trump took his first lead last week, 47% to 46%, after Biden was ahead by two the week before. Three weeks ago marked the first time Trump had cleared the 45% mark since the weekly White House Watch began at the beginning of July. The new survey finds Trump with 83% support among Republicans and a six-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. Biden has 83% of the Democrat vote.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Likely U.S. Voters think there have been more wildfires this year than in past years. Just 29% disagree and think there’s just been more media coverage of them. Thirteen percent (13%) are not sure. Forty-one percent (41%) see climate change as the most likely reason that wildfires in California are spreading, but most (54%) blame a variety of other natural and human factors. Just two years ago, a high of 56% of voters said global warming was causing more extreme weather events in the United States.

42% of Likely U.S. Voters consider Biden’s over 45 years in elected government positions as a positive when it comes to their vote this November. Thirty-eight percent (38%) view the Democratic nominee's experience as a negative, while 19% say it will have no impact. The presidency is Trump’s first elected office after a lifetime in the business sector, but just 24% think his entry into politics has made him more of a traditional Republican. Sixty-two percent (62%) say Trump instead has changed the Republican Party more to his way of thinking. Fourteen percent (14%) are not sure. Still, generally speaking when it comes to a candidate, voters attach slightly more importance to experience in government (46%) than to experience in the private sector (42%). Twelve percent (12%) are undecided. Sixty-five percent (65%) of Democrats think experience in government is more important for a candidate, while 62% of Republicans tout experience in the private sector instead. Voters not affiliated with either major party are almost evenly divided.

54% of American Adults say schools are open for in-person learning in their community. Thirty-three percent (33%) say they are not, while 13% are not sure. Among adults with children of elementary or secondary school age, 63% say schools are open for in-person learning in their community, and 55% say they’ve sent their children back to school. Only 32% of these parents believe online learning for stay-at-home students works for most students, down from 38% in mid-July. Fifty percent (50%) say it does not work, compared to 46% in the earlier survey, while 18% are undecided. Just 25% of all Americans think online learning for stay-at-home students works for most.

So a slight drop this week but still over 50%, it's been quite awhile since that's happened two weeks in a row:


• Strongly Approve: 41% (+1)
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 43% (+1)
• Total Approve: 51% (-1)
• Total Disapprove: 48% (+1)

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 40% (+1)
• Strongly Disapprove: 43%
• Total Approve: 50% (+1)
• Total Disapprove: 49%

[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls. Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending September 24, 2020. This week’s finding is down two points from a week ago. By comparison, this number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office. Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters believe the nation is headed down the wrong track, up two points from a week ago.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of September 20-24, 2020 fell to 102.2 from 104.0 the week before. The Index is based on a series of questions designed to determine whether voters are moving toward an immigration system that encourages more immigration to the United States or a one that reduces the level of immigration here. All surveys are compared to a baseline – set the week of December 2-6, 2019 - which has been given an Index of 100. A weekly finding moving up over 100 indicates growing support for a more expansive immigration system. A weekly index number falling below 100 indicates increased support for a more restrictive immigration system.

79% of Likely U.S. Voters think Barrett is likely to be confirmed as a Supreme Court justice, with 54% who say it’s Very Likely. This compares to 83% and 47% respectively for Judge Brett Kavanaugh just after President Trump announced his nomination in July 2018 and 86% and 52% respectively for Judge Neil Gorsuch, Trump’s first high court pick, in February 2017. These findings are also comparable to initial voter attitudes just after President Obama named both of his choices for the Supreme Court – Judge Sonia Sotomayor and former Solicitor General Elena Kagan. Also similar to what we’ve seen in initial surveying on past Supreme Court nominees, 39% of voters think the Senate should confirm Barrett based on what they know at this time. Forty-nine percent (49%) say she should not be confirmed, but 12% are undecided. Predictably, 76% of Republicans believe the Senate should confirm the GOP president’s latest nominee. Seventy-five percent (75%) of Democrats and 53% of voters not affiliated with either major party oppose her confirmation. But 76% of Democrats and 71% of unaffiliated voters agree with 90% of Republicans that the Senate is likely to confirm Barrett.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the debates are important in determining their vote, but that includes only 26% who say they are Very Important. This compares to 63% and 28% respectively in September 2016 just before the first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Similarly, while 51% of voters said the debates were more important four years ago than most previous presidential debates, only 45% feel that way this year. Twenty-four percent (24%) rate the upcoming debates between Democrat Joe Biden and President Trump as less important than in the past, while 27% say their level of importance is about the same.

40% of Likely U.S. Voters believe most debate moderators will try to help Joe Biden. Only eight percent (8%) think they will try to assist President Trump instead. Thirty-seven percent (37%) expect most moderators to be unbiased, while 16% are not sure. It’s important to note, however, that this poll was completed before last night’s first debate, moderated by Fox News’ Chris Wallace. Before the 2016 presidential debates, 46% thought most moderators would try to help Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton. Just six percent (6%) said they would help Trump instead. In the latest survey, 41% of voters trust media fact-checking of candidates’ comments. Forty-eight percent (48%) disagree and think news organizations skew the facts to help candidates they support. Twelve percent (12%) are undecided. Still, this is a big improvement from four years ago when 62% thought news organizations skewed the facts versus 29% who said they trusted media fact-checking. A big reason for the change is that Democrats are a lot more trusting of media fact-checking than they were in 2016. Most Republicans and unaffiliated voters remain skeptical.

Following President Trump’s announcement of a U.S. Supreme Court nominee just weeks before Election Day, Democrat Joe Biden has jumped out to an eight-point lead in Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey. The survey does not include reaction to last night’s first Trump-Biden debate. The latest national telephone and online survey finds Biden leading President Trump 51% to 43% among Likely U.S. Voters. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate. Another three percent (3%) are undecided. The race had narrowed over the previous three weeks, but Biden has now cleared the 50% mark for the first time. Trump’s latest showing is his lowest since early August. The president took his first lead two weeks ago, 47% to 46%, but Biden inched back ahead 48% to 47% last week. The new survey finds Trump with 79% support among Republicans. Biden has 84% of the Democrat vote and has reclaimed the lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.

52% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Supreme Court justices should be subject to term limits. Thirty-six percent (36%) disagree, up from 30% the first time we asked these questions in March 2019. Thirteen percent (13%) are not sure. Only 32% favor increasing the number of justices on the high court, but that’s up from 27% in last year’s survey. Fifty-three percent (53%) are opposed. Fourteen percent (14%) are undecided. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Democrats want term limits for Supreme Court justices, compared to 39% of Republicans and 49% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Democrats (45%) are also bigger fans than GOP voters (21%) and unaffiliateds (29%) of packing the court with more members.

73% of Likely U.S. Voters now think the choice between Trump and Democrat nominee Joe Biden is a choice they are excited about. Just 22% still say they will be voting for the lesser of two evils. The number who are excited about the Biden-Trump choice is up from 60% in late April when Rasmussen Reports first asked this question and 67% in mid-July. Eighty-five percent (85%) of GOP voters are now excited by the choice between Trump and Biden, compared to 74% of Democrats and 58% of voters not affiliated with either major political party. Forty-six percent (46%) of all voters say that when they vote, they are guided more by their head, down from 55% going into the Trump-Hillary Clinton election. Just eight percent (8%) are guided more by their heart. Forty-four percent (44%) say both play an equal part in their voting decisions, up from 36% four years ago. Unchanged from past surveying is the 86% who say a candidate’s positions are more important to how they vote than the political party he or she represents. Only 11% put more weight on the candidate’s party.

Just like his match-up against Biden, Trump has definitely taken a hit since Justice Ginsburg died. It'll be interesting to see the impact of his coming down with the Wuhan virus:


• Strongly Approve: 37% (-4)
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 47% (+4)
• Total Approve: 47% (-4)
• Total Disapprove: 52% (+4)

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 40%
• Strongly Disapprove: 44% (+1)
• Total Approve: 50%
• Total Disapprove: 50% (+1)

[Drlee]

Just like his match-up against Biden, Trump has definitely taken a hit since Justice Ginsburg died. It'll be interesting to see the impact of his coming down with the Wuhan virus:

It is called Corona Virus 19. Just like your polls you can't avoid getting in a partisan dig. But then the epicenter of the disease is now in the US. And our latest super spreader events were a rose garden republican political event and a criminally negligent presidential debate team.

[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls. Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction. This week’s finding is up two points from a week ago. By comparison, this number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office. Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters believe the nation is headed down the wrong track, down two points from a week ago. A year ago at this time, 36% said the United States was heading in the right direction, while 57% said it was on the wrong track.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of September 27-October 1, 2020 rose to 103.2 from 102.2 the week before. The Index is based on a series of questions designed to determine whether voters are moving toward an immigration system that encourages more immigration to the United States or a one that reduces the level of immigration here.

Trump earned a monthly job approval of 50% in September, up from 48% in August and his high for the year to date. His previous high was 49% in February. In 2019, Trump’s monthly approval ran from a low of 44% in January to a high of 50% in April. He ended the year at 49%. Fifty percent (50%) disapproved of the president’s job performance this September, down one point from the month before. Trump’s monthly approval rating during 2017, his first year in office, ranged from a high of 51% in February to a low of 42% by August. In 2018, his job approval ratings also began to improve after that year’s State of the Union speech. President Obama's monthly approval ran from a high of 59% in February 2009, his first full month in the White House, to a low of 44% in August and October of 2011. For December 2016, his final full month in office, Obama earned a monthly job approval of 56%. Forty-three percent (43%) disapproved.

44% of Likely U.S. Voters continue to think it is likely senior federal law enforcement officials broke the law in an effort to prevent Trump from winning the presidency, with 29% who say it’s Very Likely. This compares to 48% and 34% respectively in May and 50% and 32% respectively two years when we first asked this question. Forty-two percent (42%) see high-level illegality as unlikely, including 30% who say it’s Not At All Likely. Fourteen percent (14%) are not sure. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Republicans still think senior federal law enforcement officials are likely to have broken the law, but that’s down from a high of 66% in 2018. Just 38% of both Democrats and voters not affiliated with either major party agree. Thirty-six percent (36%) of all voters say Comey should be criminally prosecuted for his actions as director of the FBI. Forty-three percent (43%) disagree. This compares to 39% and 40% respectively four months ago. Twenty percent (20%) are undecided. Most GOP voters (55%) still want Comey prosecuted, compared to only 21% of Democrats and 35% of unaffiliateds.

15% of Likely U.S. Voters say they are more likely to vote for Trump because he has tested positive for the coronavirus. Twenty-two percent (22%) say they are less likely to vote for him now, while 63% say the diagnosis will have no impact on their vote. Forty-three percent (43%) of American adults say they or someone in their household owns a gun, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey. Of these Americans, 22% say they or someone in their household has purchased a gun since the violent anti-police protests began. Fifty-four percent (54%) of adults who live in gun-owning households say they feel more safe with a gun in the house, although that’s down from 61% in February 2018. Only seven percent (7%) feel less safe. Thirty-eight percent (38%) think the presence of the gun has no impact on their personal safety. Among those who have added a gun in the last four months, however, 90% feel more safe.

The latest national telephone and online survey finds Biden leading President Trump 52% to 40% among Likely U.S. Voters. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate. Another four percent (4%) are undecided. Last week, following Trump’s announcement that he was nominating federal Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court, Biden moved from a narrow one-point lead to eight points ahead. The race had narrowed over the previous three weeks. Biden has now cleared the 50% mark for two weeks in a row, while Trump has fallen to his lowest level of support since the first week of White House Watch in early July. The new survey finds Trump with 76% support among Republicans. Biden has 81% of the Democrat vote and an 18-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.

50% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Harris if both major party presidential nominees dropped out of the race. Forty-five percent (45%) would choose Vice President Pence instead. But it’s important to note that this survey was taken before the vice presidential debate. Four years ago, Pence beat Democrat vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine 41% to 35% when voters were given the presidential option. Eighty-five percent (85%) of voters said they were likely to watch this week’s vice presidential debate, with 64% who were Very Likely to do so. This compares to 78% and 54% respectively in 2016. Seventy percent (70%) said the performance of the vice presidential candidates in the debate is important to their vote, including 37% who said it’s Very Important. This compares to 27% who rated the performances at the 2016 vice presidential debate as Very Important. Just 18% said that of the debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan in 2012, but 34% felt that way about the VP debate between Biden and Sarah Palin in 2008.

48% of American Adults believe Puerto Rico should be a state. Forty percent (40%) disagree, while 12% are not sure. Just 34%, however, believe Washington, D.C. should be a state. Fifty percent (50%) oppose elevating the District of Columbia, designated by the U.S. Constitution as a federal district, to statehood. Sixteen percent (16%) are undecided. Still, this is more support for both than we’ve found in previous surveys. Support for Puerto Rican statehood has ranged from 33% in 2015 to 47% last year. D.C. statehood has earned 20% to 29% support in surveys since 2009. Among Americans who believe Puerto Rico should be a state, just 57% want the same for Washington, D.C.

Economic confidence dropped slightly to 117.0 in this month’s Rasmussen Reports Economic Index, down a point from September but just shy of the highest finding since March when states started locking down due to the global coronavirus pandemic. Enthusiasm about the economy started to grow immediately following Donald Trump's election as president in November 2016 and had jumped to 147.8 by January 2020. Then it began its steep decline in February as the coronavirus lockdown threw Americans out of work and closed many businesses. Enthusiasm has started working its way up again in recent months. In President Obama’s final years in office, this index reached a high of 121.5 in January 2015 and was at 108.1 his last month in the White House. Thirty-five percent (35%) of American Adults rate the economy as good or excellent this month, down five points from last month. Thirty-one percent (31%) still rate the economy as poor, unchanged from a month ago. Twenty-nine percent (29%) think the economy is getting better, down two points from last month. Forty-four percent (44%) still expect a worsening economy, unchanged from last month but 23 points better than April’s most pessimistic view of economic direction. Twenty-one percent (21%) see things staying about the same. By comparison, just prior to the 2016 presidential election, 31% rated the economy as good or excellent, and 26% expected it to get better. As with most topics in the Trump era, party makes a difference. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Republicans now have a positive view of the economy. Just 22% of Democrats and 31% of those unaffiliated with either major party agree. Similarly, 55% of Republicans are optimistic that the economy will improve, a view shared by only 13% of Democrats and 27% of unaffiliateds. But 55% of all Americans now say they have a positive view of their personal finances. Just 11% rate their personal finances as poor. Twenty-seven percent (27%) expect their personal finances to continue improving, down three points from September, while 28% predict they will worsen, down two points. Forty percent (40%) think their personal finances will remain about the same.

And Trump's positives continue their decline:


• Strongly Approve: 35% (-2)
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 48% (+1)
• Total Approve: 45% (-2)
• Total Disapprove: 53% (+1)

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 38% (-2)
• Strongly Disapprove: 45% (+1)
• Total Approve: 49% (-1)
• Total Disapprove: 50%

[Godstud]

Keep this in mind, though.

Pollster: Rasmussen Research has a pro-GOP bias
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-america ... o-gop-bias

[Doug64]

@Godstud, keep in mind that in 2016 Rasmussen was more accurate than the polling company of the interviewee that was accusing them of bias? Sure. According to FiveThirtyEight, Rasmussen is off from the average of pollsters by +0.2--not exactly an earthshaking difference.

[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls. Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

Thirty-two percent (32%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending October 8, 2020. This week’s finding is up one point from a week ago. By comparison, this number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office. Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters believe the nation is headed down the wrong track, remaining the same from a week ago.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of October 4-8, 2020 fell to 99.3 from 103.2 the week before. This is the lowest weekly finding since mid-May.

16% of Likely U.S. Voters think a nominee’s religion should be a deciding factor in determining who sits on the Supreme Court. Seventy-three percent (73%) reject that position and say religious faith should not be a determining factor. Because the Catholic Church opposes abortion, 14% believe Catholics should be prohibited from sitting on the Supreme Court. Seventy-seven percent (77%) disagree. Voters under 40 (26%) are far more likely than their elders (8%) to think Catholics should be barred from serving on the high court. Fifteen percent (15%) of Democrats agree, compared to nine percent (9%) of Republicans and 20% of voters not affiliated with either major political party. Democrats (69%) oppose a religious litmus test for Supreme Court nominees nearly as strongly as Republicans (79%) and unaffiliated voters (73%).

46% of Likely U.S. Voters are more likely to vote for Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Fifty-two percent (52%) are more likely not to. Support for Trump is up from 42% when Rasmussen Reports first asked this question in September of last year. But the number who plan to vote against him has held steady since then: 51% felt that way in January and July. Fifty-four percent (54%) of those who expect to vote against the president continue to say their vote is more likely to be against him personally rather than for some other candidate. But that’s down from a high of 63% in July. Forty-three percent (43%) of anti-Trumpers say they are more likely to be voting for some other candidate.

49% of all Likely U.S. Voters consider Obamacare important to their personal health care, with 32% who say it’s Very Important. This is up slightly from 45% and 29% respectively in early March. Just as many (48%) rate it unimportant to their personal health, including 31% who view it as Not At All Important. But as in the previous survey, Democrats (68%) are far more likely than Republicans (32%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (44%) to rate the national health care law as important to their health. The Supreme Court is considering a case that challenges the constitutionality of Obamacare, and 59% of GOP voters think it would be good for most Americans if what’s left of it is repealed. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Democrats and 48% of unaffiliateds disagree. Among all voters, 39% think repeal would be good for most Americans, 46% bad. Seven months ago, voters were evenly divided on this question. Five percent (5%) now say repeal would have no impact, while 10% are not sure.

With less than three weeks to go until Election Day, Democrat Joe Biden holds a five point-lead over President Trump in Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey. But a week ago, Biden had a 12-point advantage, his biggest lead ever.

The latest national telephone and online survey finds Biden leading Trump 50% to 45% among Likely U.S. Voters. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate. Three percent (3%) are undecided. In mid-September, the candidates were neck and neck, but following Trump’s announcement that he was nominating federal Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court, Biden moved from a narrow one-point lead to eight points ahead. Last week following the candidates’ first debate and Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, the Democrat jumped to a 12-point advantage. Biden has now been at 50% or higher for the past three weeks. The new survey finds Trump with 81% support among Republicans. Biden has 80% of the Democrat vote and again this week a double-digit lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.

82% of all Likely U.S. Voters say early voting is available in their home state. Only five percent (5%) say it’s not, but a surprisingly high 13% are not sure. Of those voters who say early voting is available to them, 65% are more likely to vote early. Thirty-three percent (33%) say they are more likely to wait until Election Day. Eighty percent (80%) of those who plan to vote for Democrat Joe Biden are likely to vote early, compared to 46% of those who support President Trump.

51% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the Senate should confirm Barrett as a Supreme Court justice based on what they know at this time. That’s a 12-point increase from 39% when we first asked this question in late September just after President Trump nominated Barrett to fill the seat of the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Forty percent (40%) still disagree, but that’s down from 49% in the first survey. Regardless of whether or not they believe she should be confirmed, 88% now think Barrett is likely to be confirmed for the Supreme Court, with 68% who say it’s Very Likely. This compares to 79% and 54% in the first survey. Just seven percent (7%) now say Barrett, a federal judge, is not very or Not At All Likely to be confirmed. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Republicans say the Senate should confirm Barrett, a view shared by 29% of Democrats. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Democratic voters disagree. Voters not affiliated with either major party are evenly divided. But 59% of Democrats agree with 81% of GOP voters and 64% of unaffiliateds that Barrett is now Very Likely to be confirmed as a Supreme Court justice.

28% of Likely U.S. Voters think it is too easy to vote in the United States today, consistent with surveying for the past several years. But now just as many (27%) say it’s too hard, an increase in concern. Forty percent (40%) rate the level of difficulty as about right. While roughly 40% of voters across the partisan spectrum generally agree that the current level of difficulty is about right, Democrats tend to see voting in America as too hard. Republicans and unaffiliated voters are more likely to say it’s too easy to vote. Seventy-five percent (75%) of GOP voters and 60% of unaffiliateds think laws requiring photo identification at the polls do not discriminate against some voters. Democrats who continue to fight such laws nationwide are evenly divided on this question. Among all voters, 59% still believe that photo ID laws do not discriminate against some. Thirty-one percent (31%) disagree and believe those laws do discriminate. This, too, is in line with past surveying.

And it looks like Trump's beginning to recover:


• Strongly Approve: 38% (+3)
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 46% (-2)
• Total Approve: 48% (+3)
• Total Disapprove: 51% (-2)

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 38%
• Strongly Disapprove: 45%
• Total Approve: 48% (-1)
• Total Disapprove: 51% (+1)

[Doug64]

Here's this weekend's round-up of polls. Anyone that wants to check out any possible links over the next week can go to the link to the left. (Anyone wanting more details on a particular poll, just ask):

Thirty-four percent (34%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending October 15, 2020. This week’s finding is up two points from a week ago. By comparison, this number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office. Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters believe the nation is headed down the wrong track, down three points from a week ago. A year ago at this time, 38% said the United States was heading in the right direction, while 57% said it was on the wrong track.

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of October 11-15, 2020 rose to 102.6 from 99.3 the week before. Last week’s was the lowest weekly finding since mid-May. The Index is based on a series of questions designed to determine whether voters are moving toward an immigration system that encourages more immigration to the United States or a one that reduces the level of immigration here. All surveys are compared to a baseline – set the week of December 2-6, 2019 - which has been given an Index of 100. A weekly finding moving up over 100 indicates growing support for a more expansive immigration system. A weekly index number falling below 100 indicates increased support for a more restrictive immigration system.

61% of Likely U.S. Voters now think the impact on politics of social media like Facebook and Twitter has been bad for the nation. That’s up from 51% when we first asked this question three years ago. Just seven percent (7%) say social media has been good for politics in this country, while 28% consider it neither good nor bad. But only 33% say they rarely or never go online and use social media like Facebook and Twitter. Forty-one percent (41%) say they used it every day or nearly every day. Interestingly, among regular users, just 11% say they believe most things they read on social media. Seventy-nine percent (79%) do not. Democrats are heavier users of social media like Facebook and Twitter than Republicans and voters not affiliated with either major party. But roughly 60% of all three are in general agreement that social media has been bad for politics in America.

Democrat Joe Biden has the edge over President Trump in Ohio, a Republican-leaning state that is a must-win for the president in his bid for reelection. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Ohio shows Biden leading Trump 48% to 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) remain undecided. Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Biden’s lead shrinks to one point – 48% to 47%. In 2016, Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton by eight points in Ohio, carrying nearly 52% of the state’s voters. Forty-one percent (41%) of voters in the Buckeye State have already voted this election cycle. Among these voters, Biden leads by a whopping 61% to 34%. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of all voters in Ohio have already made up their minds whom they’re going to vote for. Biden leads 50% to 48% among this group. Among the 92% who definitely plan to vote, the Democrat leads 49% to 46%.

President Trump trails Democrat Joe Biden by five points in Pennsylvania, a state that was key to Trump’s election in 2016. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania finds Biden leading Trump 50% to 45%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided. Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Biden leads 50% to 47%. In 2016, Trump edged Democrat Hillary Clinton by less than a point to carry Pennsylvania with just over 48% support. Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters in the Keystone State have already voted this election cycle. Among these voters, Biden leads 78% to 19%. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of all voters in Pennsylvania have already made up their minds whom they’re going to vote for. Biden leads 53% to 46% among these voters. Among the 92% who definitely plan to vote, the Democrat leads 52% to 44%.

President Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are in a near tie in Arizona, a state Trump carried by three-and-a-half points in 2016. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Arizona shows Biden leading Trump 48% to 46%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while another three percent (3%) remain undecided. Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Biden has a minimal 48% to 47% lead. In 2016, Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton in Arizona, carrying 48% of the state’s voters. Ninety-four percent (94%) of Arizona voters have already made up their minds whom they’re going to vote for. Biden leads 49% to 48% among this group. Fifty-seven percent (57%) have already voted. The Democrat nominee has a commanding 20-point lead among these voters. Among the 96% of voters in the state who definitely plan to vote, Biden leads 48% to 46%.

Democrat Joe Biden now leads President Trump 49% to 46% among Likely U.S. Voters, according to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey. The latest national telephone and online survey finds that two percent (2%) still prefer some other candidate, while another two percent (2%) remain undecided. Two weeks ago, Biden had a 12-point lead. A week ago, he was ahead by eight. This is the first time in a month that Biden’s support has fallen below 50%. Trump earns 82% support among Republicans. Biden has 79% of the Democrat vote and leads by seven among voters not affiliated with either major party. The Democrat had a double-digit lead among unaffiliateds for the two weeks prior to this.

President Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are running neck and neck in the battleground state of North Carolina. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in North Carolina finds Trump edging Biden 48% to 47%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Trump still has a one-point 49% to 48% lead. In 2016, Trump won nearly 50% of the vote in North Carolina, beating Democrat Hillary Clinton by almost four points. Ninety-two percent (92%) of voters in the Tar Heel State have already made up their minds whom they’re going to vote for. Trump leads 50% to 48% among this group. Among the 47% who say they have already voted, however, Biden has a 14-point lead – 55% to 41%. Ninety-four percent (94%) say they are definitely going to vote, and Trump has a 49% to 47% advantage among this group.

24% of Likely U.S. Voters say they have changed the way they were going to vote after watching the debates between presidential candidates. Voters not affiliated with either major party (34%) have changed their votes much more than Republicans (22%) and Democrats (19%) have. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of all voters are likely to watch another debate between President Trump and Democrat nominee Joe Biden, with 49% who are Very Likely to do so. But last month before their first debate, 88% said they were likely to watch, with 67% who were Very Likely to tune in. Only 51% think it is important for Trump and Biden to have a second debate, including 36% who say it is Very Important. Forty-seven percent (47%) rate another debate as unimportant, with 27% who say it is Not At All Important. The partisan difference of opinion on these questions is not surprising, given the controversy surrounding Trump’s performance in the first debate.

President Trump holds a three-point lead over Democrat Joe Biden in Florida, a state that’s critical to whether or not the president is reelected. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Florida finds Trump beating Biden 49% to 46%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and another three percent (3%) are undecided. Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Trump gains another point, besting Biden 50% to 46%. In 2016, Trump earned 49% of the vote in Florida, edging Democrat Hillary Clinton by 1.2 points to carry the state. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of voters in the Sunshine State have already made up their minds whom they’re going to vote for. Trump leads 50% to 48% among this group. Among the 45% who say they have already voted, however, Biden has a 17-point lead – 56% to 39%. Ninety-three percent (93%) say they are definitely going to vote, and Trump has a five-point advantage – 50% to 45% - among these voters.

Incumbent Republican Thom Tillis is running dead even with Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham in North Carolina’s fevered U.S. Senate race. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in North Carolina shows Tillis and Cunningham with 45% support each. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, while six percent (6%) remain undecided. Among the 47% who say they have already voted, however, Cunningham has a 13-point lead – 54% to 41%. Ninety-four percent (94%) of Tar Heel State voters say they are certain to vote in this election. The candidates are tied with 46% apiece among these voters. Tillis, former speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, was elected to the Senate in 2014, edging incumbent Democrat Kay Hagen by less than two points. Cunningham, a lawyer and former state senator, has been on the defensive in recent days following the disclosure of an extramarital sexual relationship.

And it looks like Trump's recovery continues:


• Strongly Approve: 40% (+2)
  
• Strongly Disapprove: 45% (-1)
• Total Approve: 50% (+2)
• Total Disapprove: 49% (-2)

And over the past month:


• Strongly Approve: 38%
• Strongly Disapprove: 46% (+1)
• Total Approve: 48%
• Total Disapprove: 51%