Election predictions - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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What do you think about the upcoming US election?

The Republicans are likely to win, and I'm happy about that.
2
9%
The Republicans are likely to win, and I'm not happy about that.
3
13%
The Republicans are likely to win, and I'm ambivalent about that.
5
22%
The Democrats are likely to win, and I'm happy about that.
2
9%
The Democrats are likely to win, and I'm not happy about that.
1
4%
The Democrats are likely to win, and I'm ambivalent about that.
2
9%
It's anybody's guess who will win.
8
35%
#15120191
At this point Biden could certainly win, although there's plenty of reason to believe that Trump has a very good shot at winning.

Then of course there's the possibility that Trump contests the results if he loses. And that would be new territory for contemporary American Presidential elections.
By Rugoz
#15120276
late wrote:It's straight out of the dictators manual. Militarise the border, get them used to playing rough, and then use them on their own people.

Didn't you see them in the news in places like Portland?

He doesn't need a coup, he's already there. All he has to do is thwart law and tradition, which he has done dozens of times before.


I don't know how you think this is supposed to go down. Are his "militias" powerful enough to go up against America's bloated security services? Is there going to be a war within them? :?:
By late
#15120296
Rugoz wrote:
I don't know how you think this is supposed to go down. Are his "militias" powerful enough to go up against America's bloated security services? Is there going to be a war within them? :?:



The military is unlikely to get involved, posse comitatus...

Who else would oppose them, DC police?

“All of our scenarios ended in both street-level violence and political impasse,” said Rosa Brooks, a Georgetown law professor and former Defense Department official who co-organized the group known as the Transition Integrity Project. She described what they found in bleak terms: “The law is essentially ... it’s almost helpless against a president who’s willing to ignore it.”

Using a role-playing game that is a fixture of military and national security planning, the group envisioned a dark 11 weeks between Election Day and Inauguration Day, one in which Trump and his Republican allies used every apparatus of government — the Postal Service, state lawmakers, the Justice Department, federal agents, and the military — to hold onto power, and Democrats took to the courts and the streets to try to stop it.

The very existence of a group like this one, which was formed late last year, underscores the extent of the fear in Washington’s political circles — and beyond — that Trump will take the same hammer he has used to fracture the norms of executive governance over the past three years and upend the nation’s delicate tradition of orderly political transitions of power by refusing to concede if he loses.

“We have norms in our transition, rather than laws,” said Rachel Kleinfeld, a senior fellow in the Democracy, Conflict and Governance Program at the Carnegie Foundation, who was not part of the game. “This entire election season is something a democracy expert would worry about.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/25/ ... nt-pretty/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... t-election
By Finfinder
#15120366
Tainari88 wrote:According to the analytical dude who is never wrong about presidential elections Biden will win by a very slim margin and Trump will not leave quietly into the night. I am not confident at all that it will be an easy win for Biden. H


What does that mean did Obama leave quietly into the night? :lol: Trump wouldn't have to spy on Biden and then make up a fake scandal, Biden is already impeachable by his and his sons own words.

My prediction is if it's a close election we won't know who is president for up to 1 year.
User avatar
By Tainari88
#15120482
Finfinder wrote:What does that mean did Obama leave quietly into the night? :lol: Trump wouldn't have to spy on Biden and then make up a fake scandal, Biden is already impeachable by his and his sons own words.

My prediction is if it's a close election we won't know who is president for up to 1 year.


It is bad for this year 2020.
#15120484
Finfinder wrote:What does that mean did Obama leave quietly into the night? :lol: Trump wouldn't have to spy on Biden and then make up a fake scandal, Biden is already impeachable by his and his sons own words.

My prediction is if it's a close election we won't know who is president for up to 1 year.


It's the law that all the votes have to be in by December 14th or they're voided under the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment, Supreme Court ruling in 2000 ''Bush V. Gore'' made that clear. So no, there won't be any doom porn scenario like yours going on.
#15123823
Tainari88 wrote:According to the analytical dude who is never wrong about presidential elections Biden will win by a very slim margin and Trump will not leave quietly into the night. I am not confident at all that it will be an easy win for Biden.

Here is why Biden will win.


His theory reminds me of Gene Sharp's concept of " pillars of support " .
If it ever were to become necessary to remove Trump from power , I can only hope that something like Gene Sharp's nonviolent tactics of resistance can wind up working .

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