First day of Florida in-person voting data is in and it's looking like it will be a close but clear win for Trump in the sunshine state.https://countyballotfiles.floridados.go ... ublicStats
Voted by mail: 812,363 Republicans, 1,293,994 Democrats.
This gives Democrats a 481,613 vote lead.
Voted in-person early: 153,743 Republicans, 154,004 Democrats.
This gives Democrats a 261 vote lead, or a 481,874 vote lead in total.
At first glance this might look good for Democrats but, unless the first day is a fluke, it confirms that Democrat's mail-in vote is elevated compared to Republicans and that they are about equal in terms of non-mail-in votes.
If we extrapolate this, in a normal election about 60% of votes happen on election day instead of early. This would mean (if the election were held tomorrow) that there would be about 6,035,260 total votes.
This number is relevant because we can ask ourselves what kind of lead Trump would need to make up a 481,874 vote difference.
There's a theoretical 3,621,156 votes remaining (again, if the election were held tomorrow).
The vote difference (Democrat's current lead) is 13% of the total remaining votes. Therefore, Trump would need to win 64% of the remaining vote in order to break even.
At first glance, that might sound really challenging for Trump to win 64% of the remaining vote but there's a few things to note:
1) Even leftist publications are giving Republicans a 60/40 split regarding early vs. election day voting. This would mean that Trump has to make up another 4%.
2) Conservative publicans are more like 65/35, which would give Trump the win.
3) Importantly, this is only the first day of in-person early voting data. As more days pass, the Democrat's percentage lead will shrink. With 14 days to go, in-person early voting could still equal or surpass mail-in early voting totals, whereby if the current ratios stay the same (and they stayed mostly the same so far regarding mail-in votes, so they probably will stay the same regarding early votes) the Democrat's lead would shrink. If their lead shrinks, even the leftist numbers on voter splits (60/40) would presume a win for Trump, absent some kind of turnout miracle.
Sweet baby Jesus, please preserve our President against the vitriol and hexes of these abusive criminal leftists. Please let him beat COVID!