Taking a last pre-election look at various stats, starting with mail-in ballots returned and early in-person voting in some battleground states by party breakdown, and how the total compares to 2016:
- Ohio: R 49% (+1), I 13%, D 38% (-1), +94% (-10)
- Michigan: R 42% (+1), I 19% (-1), D 39%, +192% (-14)
- Texas: R 53%, I 11% (+1), D 36% (-1), +73% (-121)
- Wisconsin: R 43% (+1), I 22%, D 35% (-1), +235% (-46)
Here's the latest from RealClearPolitics:
Over the past week, Biden's lead in the RCP's average betting odds holds steady, at Biden +30.5 29.5 (R+1.0).
RCP National Average: Biden 51.5 Trump 43.9 Spread Biden +7.6 (R+0.5)
Battleground States Average: Biden 47.7 Trump 46.4 Spread Biden +1.3 (R+0.1 )
Electoral College Map: Biden 242 (-20) Trump 125 (-1) Toss Ups (spread <= +5) 171 (+21)
Electoral College No Toss Ups: Biden 369 Trump 169 D+14)
Electoral College No Toss Ups (<=Biden+3): Biden 279 Trump 259 (D+1)
Electoral College No Toss Ups (<=Biden+4): Biden 242 Trump 296
Battlegrounds
Arizona: Biden 47.6 Trump 46.5 Spread Biden +1.1 (R+1.3 )
Florida: Biden 48.3 Trump 47.6 Spread Biden +0.7 (R+1.1)
Georgia: Biden 48.0 Trump 47.2 Spread Biden +0.8
Iowa: Biden 45.8 Trump 46.5 Spread Trump +0.7 (R+1.7)
Maine CD2: Biden 46.0 Trump 42.0 Spread Biden +4.0 (D+6)
Minnesota: Biden 47.5 Trump 43.5 Spread Biden +4.0
Nebraska CD2: Biden 50.0 Trump 47.0 Spread Biden +3.0
Nevada: Biden 49.0 Trump 45.7 Spread Biden +3.3 (R+0.7)
North Carolina: Biden 47.8 Trump 47.5 Spread Biden +0.3 (R+1.2)
Ohio: Biden 47.5 Trump 46.5 Spread Biden +1.0 (D+1.3)
Pennsylvania: Biden 49.3 Trump 45.3 Spread Biden +4.0
Texas: Biden 46.0 Trump 47.5 Spread Trump +1.5 (D+2.0)
2020 vs. 2016
Top Battlegrounds: 2020 D+3.1 2016 D+1.3 Spread Biden +1.8 (D+1.8 )
RCP National Average: 2020 D+7.2 2016 D+2.2 Spread Biden +5.0 (D+0.7)
Favorability Ratings: 2020 D+19.7 2016 D+5.4 Spread Biden +3.9 14.3 (D+10.4)
For the Senate, as per the Cook Report, this week there is one shift, but not one likely to make a difference. Giving each party 2/3 of their leaners, 1/2 of the toss-ups, and 1/3 of the opposite party's leaners, this would give the Democrats 51.8 and the Republicans 48.2:
- No election Democrat (35)
- Safe Democrat (10): Delaware (D), Illinois (D), Massachusetts (D), Minnesota (D), New Hampshire (D), New Jersey (D), New Mexico (D), Oregon (D), Rhode Island (D), Virginia (D)
- Leans Democrat (3): Arizona (R), Colorado (R), Michigan (D)
- Toss-Ups (7): Georgia (R), Georgia (R), Iowa (R), Maine (R), Montana (R), North Carolina (R), South Carolina (R)
- Leans Republican (4): Alaska (R), Alabama (D), Kansas (R), Texas (R)
- Likely Republican (2, +1): Kentucky (R), Mississippi (R)
- Safe Republican (9, -1): Arkansas (R), Idaho (R), Louisiana (R), Nebraska (R), Oklahoma (R), South Dakota (R), Tennessee (R), West Virginia (R), Wyoming (R)
- No election Republican (30)
And for the House, again per the Cook Report, there are no changes this week. Giving each party 2/3 of their leaners, 1/2 of the toss-ups, and 1/3 of the opposite party's leaners, that gives us Democrats 239.7, Republicans 195.3. So again absent a wave that's a small Democratic increase from 2018's 235 D / 199 R:
- Safe Democrat: 191
- Likely Democrat: 18
- Leans Democrat: 19
- Toss-Ups: 25
- Leans Republican: 15
- Likely Republican: 13
- Safe Republican: 153
There are eleven governors up for election, and once again no change from last week. This would give us Democrats 23.5, Republicans 26.5—
maybe the Republicans will net a +1:
- No election Democrat (20)
- Safe Democrat (2): Delaware (D), Washington (D)
- Leans Democrat (1): North Carolina (D)
- Toss-Up (1): Montana (D)
- Leans Republican (1): Missouri (R)
- Safe Republican (6): Indiana (R), New Hampshire (R), North Dakota (R), Utah (R), Vermont (R), West Virginia (R)
- No election Republican (19)
Patrickov wrote:What about this collection of Tweets and Fox interviews?
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/1 ... rus-188736
He says literally anything at anytime. I can only judge him by what he did / enabled (or lack of it if necessary)
Yes, Trump a) has no filter, and b) has no sense of subtlety--whether he is condemning or praising someone, defending his own actions or attacking someone else's, he lays it on with a trowel. Which is why I don't bother to listen to Trump's speeches or press conferences. All you can judge him by is his actions, and in the case of both Russia and China Trump has taken a harder line than the Obama/Biden administration.
Even for my worst enemies I would not say I am 100% opposed. I think it's a 50-50 or 60-40 between us.
Fair enough, I like to think I'm the same.
Anybody employing this trick as a norm is despicable, regardless of the person's position. I personally don't want to do that unless I am in a wicked mood.
I have to disagree. Yes, it is negative campaigning, but if it is both accurate and relevant then there is nothing despicable about it. And what Biden as vice president knew about Hunter's activities, whether he encouraged it, ignored it, or tried to discourage it
is relevant to how his character. Since it pretty clear that Biden at least knew about it (and lied about that fact),
at best Biden is in the same position as Eli in 1st Samuel 2.
Now the sons of Eli were scoundrels who had no respect for the Lord or for their duties as priests. Whenever anyone offered a sacrifice, Eli’s sons would send over a servant with a three-pronged fork. While the meat of the sacrificed animal was still boiling, the servant would stick the fork into the pot and demand that whatever it brought up be given to Eli’s sons. All the Israelites who came to worship at Shiloh were treated this way. Sometimes the servant would come even before the animal’s fat had been burned on the altar. He would demand raw meat before it had been boiled so that it could be used for roasting.
The man offering the sacrifice might reply, “Take as much as you want, but the fat must be burned first.” Then the servant would demand, “No, give it to me now, or I’ll take it by force.” So the sin of these young men was very serious in the Lord’s sight, for they treated the Lord’s offerings with contempt.
Now Eli was very old, but he was aware of what his sons were doing to the people of Israel. He knew, for instance, that his sons were seducing the young women who assisted at the entrance of the Tabernacle. Eli said to them, “I have been hearing reports from all the people about the wicked things you are doing. Why do you keep sinning? You must stop, my sons! The reports I hear among the Lord’s people are not good. If someone sins against another person, God can mediate for the guilty party. But if someone sins against the Lord, who can intercede?” But Eli’s sons wouldn’t listen to their father, for the Lord was already planning to put them to death.
“Therefore, the Lord, the God of Israel, says: I promised that your branch of the tribe of Levi would always be my priests. But I will honor those who honor me, and I will despise those who think lightly of me. The time is coming when I will put an end to your family, so it will no longer serve as my priests.”
Patrickov wrote:Just curious, why there is a suffix (D) after "MSM"? Does this mean something like "MSM(R)" exists?
Yes, there is are MSM(R), they have names like Breitbart, Newsmax, Townhall, RedState. The MSM(D) have names like MSNBC, CNN,
New York Times,
Washington Post.
ingliz wrote:Democracy in action...
Trump is a bit closer to fiddling a win through judgements given by 'Republican' Justices appointed to the State and Federal courts - An estimated 1.5 million valid votes declared invalid and unlikely to be counted in 4 swing states - 900,000 in Florida alone.
So how are these "Republican" justices ordering changes to state laws to allow the counting of invalid votes?
Society cannot exist, unless a controlling power upon will and appetite be placed somewhere; and the less of it there is within, the more there must be without.
—Edmund Burke