Joe Biden's Go Big or Go Home Economic Plan - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15151651
I am in favor of Biden's "Go Big or Go Home" economic plan approach for getting us out of recession and over-coming the economic pain inflicted by this pandemic. What do others think?

Matt Egan of CNN wrote:The federal government didn't act aggressively enough in 2009 to fight the Great Recession. And the economic recovery was weaker as a result.

Joe Biden, as former President Obama's vice president, learned that painful lesson firsthand. That's why Biden is taking a go-big, or go-home approach now that he's inheriting a fragile economy and the worst pandemic in a century.

Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan shows that he's determined to avoid repeating the mistakes of the Great Recession -- if Congress lets him.
"If we look back and think this plan was too big, that would be a regret that would be fine to live with," Jason Furman, one of the architects of the 2009 stimulus plan, told CNN Business.

Furman, a former top economic aide to Obama, recalled that the team wanted a $1 trillion stimulus package in 2009 -- or roughly 25% bigger than the record-setting legislation that ultimately got through Congress.

"The recovery was slower from the financial crisis because the stimulus wasn't bigger," said Furman, who served as one of Obama's top economic advisers.

By contrast, economists say the Biden plan should help the US economy ride out the next six months or so of the pandemic, which has killed more than 400,000 Americans.


Matt Egan of CNN wrote:The $1.9 trillion plan includes $1,400 stimulus checks, a $15 federal minimum wage, $350 billion in state and local aid, enhanced unemployment benefits, help for the hungry and $25 billion in rental assistance.

The goal would be to help Americans in need, especially those whose livelihoods are linked to industries crushed by the pandemic like restaurants, hotels, airlines and cruise lines. The United States lost jobs in December for the first time since the spring. The nation is still down 10 million jobs during the pandemic.

Crucially, Biden is proposing spending big, for the first time during this pandemic, on the health crisis itself. His plan calls for $400 billion to keep schools open, speed up vaccinations and improve testing.

"One of the lessons of 2009 was that the argument that you could start modestly and then keep adding if the economy did not improve ran into a political reality," Austan Goolsbee, a former Obama economic adviser, told CNN Business. "President-elect Biden was there. You can already see they're not going to repeat that scenario."

If enacted -- and that's a huge if -- the US economy would grow by a sizzling 8% in 2021 and the job market would return to nearly full employment by the fall of 2022, according to projections by Mark Zandi, chief economists at Moody's Analytics.

However, Biden's stimulus plan will face opposition in Congress. Zandi expects Biden's American Rescue Plan will get whittled down to just $750 billion. That in turn would leave US GDP growth at about 5%.

Goldman Sachs is a bit more optimistic. After Biden released his plan, the Wall Street bank raised its estimate of fiscal relief from $750 billion to $1.1 trillion. And Goldman Sachs now expects US GDP growth of 6.6% this year, up from 5.9% before Democrats took control of the US Senate.


https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/20/economy/ ... index.html
#15152094
I'm a Progressive and so, I mostly hear Progressive sources. They are saying that it seems unlikely that the Repuds in the senate will *not* filibuster this. So, the Dems will need about 10 Repud to vote for cloture. Progressives say that is unlikely.

IMO, the Repub Party needs to change to reflect the new post-Trump reality. This is that the Repub Party is toast unless it changes.
The problem is that there are 4 main voting blocks in the US; Dems, Repubs, Independents, and stay-homes. Now we should split the Rebubs, to have 5. We can ignore the stay-homes.

This will apply t all Pres. and statewide races for many years
So, 1] if the Repubs nominate a Trumper, the Dem and larger Ind. vote will crush them.
2] If the Rebubs nominate a non-Trumper, the Trumper part of the Rebub Party will stay home, so the Repubs will be crushed.

IMO, the Repub Party is toast. That is unless it does something radical.
The key question is, what will the 1% who are the main Repub donors allow them to do?

IMHO, their only hope it to make a 180% turn and try to become the Party of the workers to the maximum extent that the donor will allow. IMO, Neo-liberalism has reached the limit. The 1% are as rich as they can ever be. Either the strangle hold of Neo-liberalism has on the economy is relaxed; or the US economy implodes, or the workers rise up and make changes in a massive way. Either by voting or by shooting.
. . IMHO, the 1% needs to look at Lebanon to see the results on what the 1% owns of a modern civil war. This is close to the worst case for them, but it has a good chance of being close to the level of damage to the nation if a civil war starts.

So, the best plan for the Repubs now is to pass Biden plan and even get the Repub Party to double it. Then they might have a fighting chance of winning some elections going forward, and also importantly it shall avert the civil war.
#15152215
Politics_Observer wrote:I am in favor of Biden's "Go Big or Go Home" economic plan approach for getting us out of recession and over-coming the economic pain inflicted by this pandemic. What do others think?

Much of it is bog standard Keynesian stimulus. GDP = Consumption + Gross Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports. If the government spends a crap ton of money, you get a double kick. Stimulus checks generally go to people with a high marginal propensity to consume. That will keep GDP numbers up, because you get both government spending spiking and consumption spiking.

The question is what's going to happen to commercial and residential rental real estate? What's going to happen when people are hit with back rent? Will millions be forced into bankruptcy whether they are landlord or tenant? Rental assistance is really just a bailout for landlords, because there won't be a dime of it that a renter can keep.

A $15 minimum wage will put strong downward pressure on employment. If he could forestall that for 3 years, and run on it taking effect in 2024, he might pull it off politically. Otherwise, we're looking at slowing job growth, higher use of automation, and putting the very marginal members of the working class in more peril.

Steve_American wrote:They are saying that it seems unlikely that the Repuds in the senate will *not* filibuster this. So, the Dems will need about 10 Repud to vote for cloture. Progressives say that is unlikely.

I imagine they will object to a few things, but not the outrageous amount of money spent. Republicans haven't been fiscally conservative since the Newt Gingrich days.

Steve_American wrote:IMO, the Repub Party needs to change to reflect the new post-Trump reality. This is that the Repub Party is toast unless it changes.

If Trump starts a Patriot party, the political duopoly is toast.

Steve_American wrote:Either the strangle hold of Neo-liberalism has on the economy is relaxed; or the US economy implodes, or the workers rise up and make changes in a massive way. Either by voting or by shooting.
. . IMHO, the 1% needs to look at Lebanon to see the results on what the 1% owns of a modern civil war.

1/6/21 obviously scared them, but they really don't seem to be learning anything--like none of them are popular with the masses anymore.

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