[Gnote]

Since Barack Obama will, barring a horrific miscarriage of democracy, become the Democratic Party's nominee for president, I pose the following question to you:

Are there any traditionally red states that will come into play in the general election against McCain? I'm less interested in discussion about swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, and would rather focus on states that almost always lean Republican.

[Kylie]

Well, here's an interesting fact to realize. While I do speak of my state, which is a swing state, I can't help but think it may apply to typically 'red states'. You see, a lot of people switched their party affiliation to vote in the election, and the majority of people who switched their party affiliation voted for Obama.

I would like to see numbers or polls or something to reflect that in red states, because I can't help but think it's true. I think the question, if what I think is true, is whether that translates into votes for Obama in November. It depends on how they see McCain; whether they see them as doing the same as Bush or not. If so, they'll vote for Obama to change things up. It will be interesting to see.

I'm also looking for the horrific miscarriage of democracy to happen, though.

[Goranhammer]

I'd say absolutely no. In fact, there may be some traditionally blue states that may turn swing by the nomination of Obama.

Hillary is the choice of the "intellectual" Democrat base, while Obama mostly gets his support from the chickenhawk Democrat base. If Hillary gets swept aside, there may be a boycott-like backlash.

[sazerac]

All the states with the highest black populations are Red states. Obama will get most of those votes.

[Koga]

A: I hate this whole red/blue state thing. It's bullcrap. It's generally impossible to suggest that nearly everyone in a particular state is liberal or conservative. Perhaps the government in that state is, but as we know, the people's opinion and government's opinion can be two very different things.


B: I find it disgusting that democrats try to capitalize on the fact Obama is black. Let's forget all about what blacks actually care about. Religion, family, and more education/housing subsidies for the poorer classes... and let's just rely on the fact that Obama is black. They'll vote for friggin Adolph Hitler if he painted himself black afterall.. The black community's far too stupid to actually notice the draconic filthmongerer Obama is...

[ronaldo6923]

it seems much more likely that mccain will carry some blue states than barack will carry red states.

[RustyDialectic]

barring a horrific miscarriage of democracy

What, like the popular vote being used by superdelegates as a way to overturn the convoluted and undemocratic delegate system?

2000: Gore gets popular vote, loses election; Dems have aneurysms.
2008: Clinton wins popular vote (hypothetical projection), loses nomination, Obama cult rejoices.

Could you imagine the outroar - especially in the black community - if Obama won the popular vote but Clinton had more pledged delegates, and "stole" the nomination? It is quite possible that the opposite will occur... And he'll keep giving the same spin about caring about democracy, fairness, and a "new politics..."

[NoRapture]

What, like the popular vote being used by superdelegates as a way to overturn the convoluted and undemocratic delegate system?

The electorates of Ohio and Pennsylvania are not the popular vote of the whole USA. I'm pretty sure the Democratic super-delegates are aware of this if not Hillary's new best friends.

[Nets]

Hillary is the choice of the "intellectual" Democrat base, while Obama mostly gets his support from the chickenhawk Democrat base. If Hillary gets swept aside, there may be a boycott-like backlash.

I'm one of those Democrats who hasn't decided yet who he'd vote for in the general election if Obama got the nomination. I just don't know at this point. I may not vote.

[Dr House]

I'm one of those Democrats who hasn't decided yet who he'd vote for in the general election when Obama gets the nomination

Fixed.

Personally, I'd rather vote for Obama than Clinton. He's less of an economic populist than he lets on, and he's already admitted that his NAFTA-bashing was just a show for the far-left primary voters.

-Dr House

[The Immortal Goon]

Hillary is the choice of the "intellectual" Democrat base,

Gallop: Obama Dominates Clinton Among College Graduates

[Dr House]

Worse, he dominates with everybody who has more than a high school degree, and the more educated, the higher his popularity gets.

[Gnote]

Hillary is the choice of the "intellectual" Democrat base, while Obama mostly gets his support from the chickenhawk Democrat base.

The truth is the exact opposite.

Every poll shows that the better educated, wealthier Democrats are in Obama's camp.

[Todd D.]

I'd say absolutely no. In fact, there may be some traditionally blue states that may turn swing by the nomination of Obama.

I think you are both right. Chances are Obama will win a few traditionally "Red" states, while McCain might take some traditionally "Blue" states. This very well could be a very different election than we've seen since '84.

New Mexico is traditionally a "swing state" (it went Red in 2000, Blue in 20004), and it's more Southwest than South (yes Gnote, they are very different things), and I'd say that Richardson endorsing Obama pretty much wrapped up the state for him.

As far as "the South" goes, Virginia, Georgia (mainly because of Atlanta), and South Carolina could easily go to Obama.

[Gnote]

Which blue states might McCain stand to win?

Are we talking New England?


(and yes, I do understand the difference between South and Southwest)

[Todd D.]

Just wanted to make sure. I live in New Mexico and didn't want to get accused of being a Southerner.

Are we talking New England?

Well, New Hampshire is always up for grabs, and could certainly lean McCain's way depending on Obama's politics leading in to the general election. Other strongholds like CT and MA are unlikely to shift though.

I'd say the Blue States in 2004 that McCain could win are PA, MN, and possibly California.

[Adam_Smith]

Hillary is the choice of the "intellectual" Democrat base, while Obama mostly gets his support from the chickenhawk Democrat base.

The truth is the exact opposite.

Every poll shows that the better educated, wealthier Democrats are in Obama's camp.

Yes, and "chickenhawks" are natural McCain supporters who would take Hillary only as a second choice.

[Goranhammer]

I never would have expected the opposite to be true. It seems that most of the liberal support I've seen from Obama has been from the Hollywood dipshits who couldn't rub two brain cells together.

I would have bet dollars to donuts that Hillary would have been the choice for educated Democrats in a business-induced world that make 250K+ a year.

I don't understand how smart people could vote for someone so stupid. So inexperienced. So wet behind the ears. Hillary doesn't have a platform that I like, but at least she has a platform. Obama just says vague, inane shit like "we want change" and "bring hope to the White House".

It scares me that the DNC nomination is going to essentially go to a walking fortune cookie.

[RustyDialectic]

The electorates of Ohio and Pennsylvania are not the popular vote of the whole USA. I'm pretty sure the Democratic super-delegates are aware of this if not Hillary's new best friends.

My point was that Hillary is winning the actual popular vote, not that PA and OH are more important.

[NoRapture]

My point was that Hillary is winning the actual popular vote, not that PA and OH are more important.

The Clintons are behind substantially in both popular vote and pledge delegate count. Hillary is claiming her votes in both Michican and Florida, two States which knowingly disqualified themselves from the primary elections by holding early polling without Obama even appearing on the ticket. Hillary, lying as usual, is now claiming those disqualified results as vote count.

If your point is that Clinton leads in vote count then your point is erroneous.