Joe Biden greenlights Russian 'incursion' into the Ukraine - Page 8 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

Wandering the information superhighway, he came upon the last refuge of civilization, PoFo, the only forum on the internet ...

Talk about what you've seen in the news today.

Moderator: PoFo Today's News Mods

#15209425
JohnRawls wrote:Population means literally jack shit nowadays. China had hundreds of millions and billions of people for a long time but it didn't become relevant in any major sense for modern times until it opened up its economy and started growing economy. Considering Turkish population, it is economically tiny and irrelevant. Especially with the new Lira things happening.

Your nominal GDP just dropped by 30%-50% because of last year meaning that you went to a total GDP less than Poland while having folds more people. Greece also went to having 4x less to having 2x less compared to Turkey.

The currency crisis of emerging countries is temporary. National income increase by record levels in terms of lira. Exchange rate is manipulated and it hides economic realities. Our export grows to unseen levels in Turkey's history.

Beren wrote:And what will you do with so many poor people? Because illegal aliens are poor and it's the poor multiplying that much as well, I guess. Will you blackmail the EU with them as potential refugees perhaps? Because that's all they'll be good for.

We have a deal on refugees. Did you forget it? It has been 5 years since we agreed on that. Therefore, population boom is unavoidable. It is economically good as it creates a one big marketplace. I am for open borders.
wat0n wrote:@Istanbuller is right though, not so much about Turkey being a dictatorship in the '90s but it's been a dictatorship before while being in NATO. And has had military tensions with other members.

It was a dictatorship in 1990s either. Politicians seemed to run the country, but in fact military generals and mobs were in charge of the country. Terror attacks were rampant everywhere.

Erdoğan restored the rule of law and authority of central government. He cleared the country from terrorists.
Scamp wrote:@Istanbuller, just curious, and I mean no disrespect. Does Turkey have toilet paper now? They did not, outside of Incirlik Air Base, years ago.

Now we sell toilet paper to Israel. :excited:
#15209455
Istanbuller wrote:The currency crisis of emerging countries is temporary. National income increase by record levels in terms of lira. Exchange rate is manipulated and it hides economic realities. Our export grows to unseen levels in Turkey's history.


We have a deal on refugees. Did you forget it? It has been 5 years since we agreed on that. Therefore, population boom is unavoidable. It is economically good as it creates a one big marketplace. I am for open borders.

It was a dictatorship in 1990s either. Politicians seemed to run the country, but in fact military generals and mobs were in charge of the country. Terror attacks were rampant everywhere.

Erdoğan restored the rule of law and authority of central government. He cleared the country from terrorists.

Now we sell toilet paper to Israel. :excited:


Industrial production and exports grow because Erdogan just devalued the Lira by two digit numbers making you a lower and lower income country so as to create fake competitivness through cheap labour of sorts. Does it work for increasing industrial base for basics and exports? Well yes. But this also destroys the middle class and makes people work in sweatshops basically. And as soon as the salaries start rising again then companies that invested and built those factories will just go to other low income countries so the country runs in to the middle income trap. Turkey basically went back a decade or two in this regard so there will be growth again but then again you will bump the head in to the middle income trap.
#15209459
Istanbuller wrote:It was a dictatorship in 1990s either. Politicians seemed to run the country, but in fact military generals and mobs were in charge of the country. Terror attacks were rampant everywhere.

Erdoğan restored the rule of law and authority of central government. He cleared the country from terrorists.

So no one should ever expect any better from Turkey because Erdogan's Turkey is the best possible Turkey?
#15209467
JohnRawls wrote:Industrial production and exports grow because Erdogan just devalued the Lira by two digit numbers making you a lower and lower income country so as to create fake competitivness through cheap labour of sorts. Does it work for increasing industrial base for basics and exports? Well yes. But this also destroys the middle class and makes people work in sweatshops basically. And as soon as the salaries start rising again then companies that invested and built those factories will just go to other low income countries so the country runs in to the middle income trap. Turkey basically went back a decade or two in this regard so there will be growth again but then again you will bump the head in to the middle income trap.

Trade surplus means things are sustainable. We will have it hopefully.

China's trade surplus was half a trillion dollar in 2020 while you are running deficit in America and Europe. What you are doing there is not sustainable. Believe me, things will get very hard for you when Germany runs out of cash.

Rancid wrote:Erdogan is doing his best to turn Turkey into a shit hole.

Also, it was comical to see Erdogan offer to mediate between Russia/Ukraine. :lol: Fucking jackass.

Turkey's location is close to both of countries. We have close relations with both of them. Also, there is sizeable minority of Russians and Ukranians livin in Turkey. I don't see anything comical about Erdoğan's attempts.
Beren wrote:So no one should ever expect any better from Turkey because Erdogan's Turkey is the best possible Turkey?

I see other options not viable. I like personal liberties granted to us during latest 20 years of Erdoğan government.
#15209481
Istanbuller wrote:Trade surplus means things are sustainable. We will have it hopefully.

China's trade surplus was half a trillion dollar in 2020 while you are running deficit in America and Europe. What you are doing there is not sustainable. Believe me, things will get very hard for you when Germany runs out of cash.


Turkey's location is close to both of countries. We have close relations with both of them. Also, there is sizeable minority of Russians and Ukranians livin in Turkey. I don't see anything comical about Erdoğan's attempts.
I see other options not viable. I like personal liberties granted to us during latest 20 years of Erdoğan government.


Trade surplus is misunderstood by most people. You are producing the goods but that's it. Most of the companies belong to the investors along with the IP and majority of value add. It doesn't mean that your country is getting a surplus of money from other countries while others are loosing it needing to print more money, it doesn't work that way. It is a win-win arrangement for those companies that either subcontract cheap production or produce themselves with cheap labour.

There is a more precise metric for this called capital flow that is calculated for that same reason as you are describing. This is the Turkish capital flow:
Image

While it is also not ideal it kinda shows what is happening. Turkey historically might be positive with its trade surplus but then all that money is going just back to Europe basically. It is not staying in Turkey.
#15209576
JohnRawls wrote:Trade surplus is misunderstood by most people. You are producing the goods but that's it. Most of the companies belong to the investors along with the IP and majority of value add. It doesn't mean that your country is getting a surplus of money from other countries while others are loosing it needing to print more money, it doesn't work that way. It is a win-win arrangement for those companies that either subcontract cheap production or produce themselves with cheap labour.

There is a more precise metric for this called capital flow that is calculated for that same reason as you are describing. This is the Turkish capital flow:
Image

The whole definition of economics is about production and trade. Europe and America can't comply with basics of economics. You fail at production and trade. What else can you say about economics if you exclude these? You are spending more than you earn. China does the opposite. That is why they are beating you very hard.
#15209602
Istanbuller wrote:The whole definition of economics is about production and trade. Europe and America can't comply with basics of economics. You fail at production and trade. What else can you say about economics if you exclude these? You are spending more than you earn. China does the opposite. That is why they are beating you very hard.


It doesn't work that way. By that logic any resource extracting country would be rich while everyone else would be poor because they are basically extracting and not paying for it besides salaries while having massive returns from selling oil, gas, any resource to other countries. In reality though only very few resource rich countries are rich when they have small population while majority of resource extractors are underdeveloped countries.

When you look at production then you are buying those resource and then making something out of them while somebody is selling the complete product. Usually owner of the IP, product or technology to produce it which makes them far more money compared to just producing. So the manufacturer is basically getting price that they sell/arranged the production for minus the production cost(all of them) which is far less than the selling price to normal people since you don't own the brand, ip, technology.

Look at the iphone as an example. Total component cost has always been 300-500ish depending on the model. Apple sells them almost for 2x the cost of manufacturing. Foxconn, the manufacturer, who produced those phones got 8 dollars per produced iPhone.

And with everything put together like logistics and so on, apple makes 300-500 dollars of profit per iphone while the actual manufacturer makes 8 dollars. https://slate.com/business/2012/09/foxc ... tors%20pay.

It might look nice on your trade surplus though that you are exporting iPhone. In reality though you are not the one selling them but just producing them for export.
#15209625
JohnRawls wrote:It doesn't work that way. By that logic any resource extracting country would be rich while everyone else would be poor because they are basically extracting and not paying for it besides salaries while having massive returns from selling oil, gas, any resource to other countries. In reality though only very few resource rich countries are rich when they have small population while majority of resource extractors are underdeveloped countries.

When you look at production then you are buying those resource and then making something out of them while somebody is selling the complete product. Usually owner of the IP, product or technology to produce it which makes them far more money compared to just producing. So the manufacturer is basically getting price that they sell/arranged the production for minus the production cost(all of them) which is far less than the selling price to normal people since you don't own the brand, ip, technology.

Look at the iphone as an example. Total component cost has always been 300-500ish depending on the model. Apple sells them almost for 2x the cost of manufacturing. Foxconn, the manufacturer, who produced those phones got 8 dollars per produced iPhone.

And with everything put together like logistics and so on, apple makes 300-500 dollars of profit per iphone while the actual manufacturer makes 8 dollars. https://slate.com/business/2012/09/foxc ... tors%20pay.

It might look nice on your trade surplus though that you are exporting iPhone. In reality though you are not the one selling them but just producing them for export.

It works that way. There is debt accumulation and you are living on debt. China still sell you goods and services because it needs to do until Chinese internal markets reach maturity. China will ask you pay for goods at some point and it will cut selling good to you. Because you don't pay them.

Living standrads on the West artifcally increased. Welfare state made you believe that you can spend money which you don't have. This is not sustainable.
#15209632
Istanbuller wrote:It works that way. There is debt accumulation and you are living on debt. China still sell you goods and services because it needs to do until Chinese internal markets reach maturity. China will ask you pay for goods at some point and it will cut selling good to you. Because you don't pay them.

Living standrads on the West artifcally increased. Welfare state made you believe that you can spend money which you don't have. This is not sustainable.


We are getting most of the capital and money for the transactions. So I am not sure how are we loosing here. The only reason we can be more in debt is because we have so much capital so borrowing is cheap and people borrow more. It is a question of interest rates.

The reason other countries can't do it is because interest rates are very high and capital is more expensive for them because they have very few of it.
#15209743
JohnRawls wrote:
We are getting most of the capital and money for the transactions. So I am not sure how are we loosing here. The only reason we can be more in debt is because we have so much capital so borrowing is cheap and people borrow more. It is a question of interest rates.

The reason other countries can't do it is because interest rates are very high and capital is more expensive for them because they have very few of it.


The one thing that is being lost is industrial base though. Meaning, say once war breaks out with China. Who's going to make your shit?
#15209745
Rancid wrote:The one thing that is being lost is industrial base though. Meaning, say once war breaks out with China. Who's going to make your shit?


Definitely not China so unless they wanna commit economic suicide they better be a good boy.
#15209748
Actually since this is a topic about Ukraine here is another take on Ukraine situation:

1) We the West are actually fanning the flames to punish Russia for constant abuse regarding Ukraine as a pre-emptive measure. Putin has abused this military tactic several times already so this time we though, hey why not fuck the Russians and send more arms to Ukraine along with preventing them from doing it again.
2) As a result of this, we managed to collapse the Ruble to its lowest value in history I think along with investors having a run from Russian investment market. Making Putin panic more and not willing to use this extortion tactic out of fear of what is happening to Russian currency and market right now.
3) It seems that we also undermining Germanies pathetic stance on the subject along the way. Germany blocking UK exports seems to have been a PR stunt and nobody actually asked permission to fly over their territory and UK just flew around while spreading the news on the subject. Same goes for other news trying to ridicule Germany for their weak ass position.

All in all, I am for this. If this is the case then good move on the side of the EU countries participating, UK and US for figuring such a plan to fuck Russia and punish it for its extortion tactics.
#15209751
JohnRawls wrote:Actually since this is a topic about Ukraine here is another take on Ukraine situation:

1) We the West are actually fanning the flames to punish Russia for constant abuse regarding Ukraine as a pre-emptive measure. Putin has abused this military tactic several times already so this time we though, hey why not fuck the Russians and send more arms to Ukraine along with preventing them from doing it again.
2) As a result of this, we managed to collapse the Ruble to its lowest value in history I think along with investors having a run from Russian investment market. Making Putin panic more and not willing to use this extortion tactic out of fear of what is happening to Russian currency and market right now.
3) It seems that we also undermining Germanies pathetic stance on the subject along the way. Germany blocking UK exports seems to have been a PR stunt and nobody actually asked permission to fly over their territory and UK just flew around while spreading the news on the subject. Same goes for other news trying to ridicule Germany for their weak ass position.

All in all, I am for this. If this is the case then good move on the side of the EU countries participating, UK and US for figuring such a plan to fuck Russia and punish it for its extortion tactics.


As I stated, all Putin has achieved is show the rest of the world further how much of an asshole fuck face he is.
#15210029
JohnRawls wrote:We are getting most of the capital and money for the transactions. So I am not sure how are we loosing here. The only reason we can be more in debt is because we have so much capital so borrowing is cheap and people borrow more. It is a question of interest rates.

The reason other countries can't do it is because interest rates are very high and capital is more expensive for them because they have very few of it.

National income figures show that Chinese gets more. It doesn't really matter if you get cheap money as long as you don't use it in creative ways. It doesn't increase your production.
Negotiator wrote:So - still no invasion of the Ukraine ?

You promised.

I'm so disappointed now. :roll:

"When you dance with the bear, you can't stop until the bear wants to stop". Russia, which i know the one, always get what it wants.
#15210030
Istanbuller wrote:National income figures show that Chinese gets more. It doesn't really matter if you get cheap money as long as you don't use it in creative ways. It doesn't increase your production.
"When you dance with the bear, you can't stop until the bear wants to stop". Russia, which i know the one, always get what it wants.


What do you mean by national income? Capital flow? China has okay positive flow right now because they introduced capital controlls in 2015-2016 which brings a whole different bunch of problems in itself.

Also what do you mean by not being creative? European and US companies are the ones that are inventing most of the stuff while producing it partially or fully somewhere else.
#15210032
JohnRawls wrote:What do you mean by national income? Capital flow? China has okay positive flow right now because they introduced capital controlls in 2015-2016 which brings a whole different bunch of problems in itself.

Also what do you mean by not being creative? European and US companies are the ones that are inventing most of the stuff while producing it partially or fully somewhere else.

You told me that you get more money from transactions and I told you that your assumption is false. China runs a record number of trade surpluses each year while you are in deficit. It would be vice versa if you were right.

You are strrugling to create new jobs while China creates millions of them easily. It is obivious that you use that cheap money on waste things.
#15210033
Istanbuller wrote:You told me that you get more money from transactions and I told you that your assumption is false. China runs a record number of trade surpluses each year while you are in deficit. It would be vice versa if you were right.

You are strrugling to create new jobs while China creates millions of them easily. It is obivious that you use that cheap money on waste things.


You just don't understand. Trade surplus doesn't work how you think it is. Trade surplus is not even the total surplus or negative of traded money in a classical sense. Then you have capital flows and so on.

Since I have tried 5 times now, the long story short here is that negative trade balance is not a bad thing be it in economic sense or political or social.
  • 1
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
Pizzagate

They probably use it to control politicians etc. […]

Russia-Ukraine War 2022

While I could ask about Kiev once again but I won[…]

When Skinster posted spammy tweets about Palestin[…]

May 18, Wednesday Again, circumstances at Spot[…]