[Fasces]

Thread about that here:

China has an intractable demographic problem
viewtopic.php?f=114&t=181410

China is now in a position of being between a rock and hard place, in terms of policy choices. It is damned if it does and damned if doesn't.

It cannot keep growing and there are already too many people, but at the same time the workforce is not going to be large enough to pay for the old.

In other words, China has come to the end of the demographic pyramid scheme. It was never really long-term sustainable.

Thanks for a perfect demonstration of exactly what I said.

China has the exact same problem that Canada would have if you ended all immigration into Canada.

[Puffer Fish]

Ironic, I am pretty much the only person here that posts regularly about improving the quality of life...

It's not merely about design in already existing big cities.
New cities will have to be built with good design.

Not just housing tracts continually being built and expanding out in piecemeal fashion.

But this would actually cost money.

[Puffer Fish]

Thanks for a perfect demonstration of exactly what I said.

China has the exact same problem that Canada would have if you ended all immigration into Canada.

My point was its not a sustainable solution.
Sure, it might help Canada for a while, but eventually Canada would end up in the same situation China is now.

And you can't have too much population growth at a rate too high, otherwise it won't be able to keep up with economic growth, and wage levels will go down, standards of living will deteriorate.

Adding people doesn't just automatically create more jobs. Well it does, but those won't be the same type of good jobs that already exist. The proportions will change, things won't just remain the same as they were before. You'll just have more people with less money (less wealth). Unfortunately wealth isn't entirely built on just a simple labor component, like some people imagine.

But hey, why care? If you're on the Left you can just blame the results on a "failure of capitalism".

[late]

It's not merely about design in already existing big cities.
New cities will have to be built with good design.

Not just housing tracts continually being built and expanding out in piecemeal fashion.

But this would actually cost money.

You don't know what you're talking about. There won't be new cities.

There is a European idea called infilling, where you increase population density, and improve quality of life, at the same time. That isn't about building new cities, it's about making cities better.

But that still misses the point, without immigration, the population of Canada would go down.

[Puffer Fish]

You don't know what you're talking about. There won't be new cities.

There is a European idea called infilling, where you increase population density, and improve quality of life, at the same time. That isn't about building new cities, it's about making cities better.

That's my point. Already existing cities are going to get more crowded. That is not going to improve quality of life, and you are deluding yourself if you have convinced yourself of that.

Is banning all cars on the roads in these cities part of your plan?
Otherwise I hope you have plans for something like construction of a monorail, because the traffic congestion in these areas is going to get really bad.

It's going to dramatically increase cost of housing. It's very expensive to build up. And of course there won't be enough of the older cheaper housing.

And depending on which countries these people come from, they will bring many social problems with them. That is not going to improve quality of life. You have only to look to the experience of the U.S. to see that.

Now you might say "There are ways to solve these problems." But my point is that WON'T happen. You are basing your plan on a set of solutions that are never actually going to get implemented.

[late]

Already existing cities are going to get more crowded. That is not going to improve quality of life, and you are deluding yourself if you have convinced yourself of that.

Some places have been improving the quality of life for 40 years.

Your fantasy doesn't get to replace facts.

Way book in 1961, Jane Jacobs wrote The Death and Life of Great American Cities in which she discovered what makes cities tick.

Why don't you know math?

[Godstud]

Canada is NOT where US was 40 years ago. You're delusional and like to ignore reality and facts.

Canada has a far different set of demographics than the US and we really don't give a shit about it nearly as much as racist Americans do. Demographics change. Always.

If anything, Canada is 40 years AHEAD of USA. Only flag-wavers, who think USA is #1 despite the reality, think otherwise.

[Puffer Fish]

Some places have been improving the quality of life for 40 years.

Are any of these places that have been getting lots of immigrants?

Be intellectually honest with yourself.

[Steve_American]

My point was its not a sustainable solution.
Sure, it might help Canada for a while, but eventually Canada would end up in the same situation China is now.

And you can't have too much population growth at a rate too high, otherwise it won't be able to keep up with economic growth, and wage levels will go down, standards of living will deteriorate.

Adding people doesn't just automatically create more jobs. Well it does, but those won't be the same type of good jobs that already exist. The proportions will change, things won't just remain the same as they were before. You'll just have more people with less money (less wealth). Unfortunately wealth isn't entirely built on just a simple labor component, like some people imagine.

But hey, why care? If you're on the Left you can just blame the results on a "failure of capitalism".

Puffer Fish,
AFAIK, the only age distribution that is sustainable is the one that is a rectangle with vertical sides, equal numbers at each age group (then a pyramid at the very top), well almost equal to allow for deaths at all ages.
The normal pyramid shape will always drive up population. However, the Earth is finite. We are at peak oil now. We can't keep adding CO2 to the air. We are using top soil 23 times faster than nature produces it. We will see massive food shortages in less than 100 years just from soil erosion.
The problem with this is that most economists say that it doesn't have enough young people to drive consumption and work to support the old people. At least so say mainstream economists. We really need some new economists figure out how to make that rectangle topped by a pyramid shape work.

.

[Godstud]

Are any of these places that have been getting lots of immigrants?

Be intellectually honest with yourself.

Yes. FFS, the very place you are talking about, Canada, is a good example of this. You are delusional and don't like facts, however.

You're pushing a narrative that says that changing demographics is bad. This is a very racist argument.

[late]

Are any of these places that have been getting lots of immigrants?

Be intellectually honest with yourself.

Having utterly failed, you are trying to move the goalposts...

The demographic shift is new.

[Pants-of-dog]

@Puffer Fish

Your weird arguments seem wrong.

Immigants are not going to overcrowd cities.

There is no evidence of this.

Toronto, a city that is already minority majority, has a population density of 4,427.8/km2.

If we double that, as per your headline, we get 8,855.6/sq. km.

This is still significantly less than the 75 most dense cities in the world. It would not even make it into the top 100.

[Verv]

Canada and the whole of the West are trying to cover up for economic difficulties stemming from the fact that they are experiencing inverted age pyramids. Of course, right now they aren't, really, due to immigration, but even the new immigrants tend to have lower birth rates which necessitates bringing in more immigrants to fill up the coffers that cover the expensive healthcare and pensions of the seniors.

The big problem is, though, that third world states just don't have birth rates like they used to.

Just some random numbers on total fertility rates:

Brazil: 1.7
Bangladesh: 2.0
Vietnam: 2.06
Mexico: 2.1
India: 2.28
Philippines: 2.89

Yes, there are other countries out there, like Chad, Nigeria, and Somalia, that sport TFRs above 5... But the demand for immigrants throughout the whole of the world is going to increase by a lot. Somalia can't supply the whole world with replacements for the aging population and while the immigrants that are replacing your mom & dad right now may actually have a TFR above your own, it's scarcely the case.

The real funny question for everyone is what're Bangladesh & Brazil going to do when their age pyramid begins to really invert..?

Who's going to choose to go to these places and work? Unless it has gone entirely belly up in W. Europe and N. America, why would you go there..?

This is a strange prediction but I think that we will eventually see some of these countries move towards limiting emigration and also take drastic measures to increase their own TFRs. As it stands, S. Korea and much of the West has tried to increase their women's fertility... but all the incentives in the world do not seem to be growing it.

I suspect more authoritarian countries will take drastic measures, and those countries which are poor and free and would not normally take drastic measures will begin to have Duterte moments. But IDK. Lots of room for speculation.

"China is doomed. It is entering a demographic crisis. The West will prevail because it attracts migrants and laborers from all over the world to keep its population above replacement levels, while China cannot."

"Immigration and migrant families are an existential threat to the West and must be stopped at all costs."

Pick a lane, Western far-right.

I did not know that China being doomed because of a demographic crisis could even really be a Western far right talking point other than potentially a criticism of the hypercapitalism that begins to sterilize the Chinese... Which is an undeniable fact. As it stands, they already have a sizable amount of immigrants going there to work.

But I think it is an undeniable fact that populations are going to be dramatically altered, and cultures will shrink greatly in size. At the rate things are going in South Korea, we will be losing half of the population every single generation because the TFR is below 1..!

Yes, immigrants can learn the Korean language and, to some degree, they integrate themselves into Korean culture... Kind of. But a leopard can't change its spots. They do not give up 100% of their own cultural practices even when they marry, and they do not only pass on Korean cultural traits to their children. My point only being that the Korean population, failing a dramatic and highly unlikely population rebound, will diminish greatly in size within its own country, a fact that they all acknowledge and are concerned about.

I guess the West is less concerned minus the far right because they believe that their cultures are either fully transmittable to foreigners, or that cultures always change. The whole cultures always change shtick is very useful to progressives, and also not necessarily untrue, cultures do change... But I think the progressives will feel different about this when they are in the nursing home and the MENA and African migrants are replacing their drag queens with Hijabis.

(Of course, the fantasy is that Muslims are immediately enlightened & secularized but, to the credit of Muslims, this has not been the trend in France - I do not have the link to an article I read just a few years ago on this, but this was a trend that was evening happening from the 1990s to 2000s... Sadly, I could not find the awesome study I had seen earlier, but this excerpt works:

"85% of Muslims aged 17-25 say religion plays an important role in their lives, compared to only 22% of the same age group of Catholics." from Le Figaro).

[Skynet]

The Planet has become a mixer of races.

In 50 Years is the national state obsolete, because its population is diverse. There will be a 2 class society on the planet those who have good passports and those with bad.

The pinacle folly is a Mexican border patrol agent who hounts down illegal immigrants.

Therefore I think the future will be the World State!



@Verv South-Koreans as ethnicity will disappear with a the lowest birthrate on earth (1 child per Woman, 2.1 are needed to stay stable)

[Verv]

The Planet has become a mixer of races.

You could say this was essentially the case with the discovery of America...

But then Egypt, Yemen, East Africa, and much of the Middle East and perhaps even Thailand or Malaysia would raise their hands and demand their recognition.

But yeah, I do essentially agree.

Vasconcelo's La raza cosmica (Wiki) is a fun and romantic way to look at this.

In 50 Years is the national state obsolete, because its population is diverse. There will be a 2 class society on the planet those who have good passports and those with bad.

That is dystopian as can be.

The pinacle folly is a Mexican border patrol agent who hounts down illegal immigrants.

... But what is a Mexican?

If he is trying to become a good passport holder and wants to stem the tide of people threatening to turn his chances of getting the good one away... Isn't that a good calculation on his behalf? Maybe not ethical, but smart economically.

@Verv South-Koreans as ethnicity will disappear with a the lowest birthrate on earth (1 child per Woman, 2.1 are needed to stay stable)

[/quote]

I think some kind of events can happen to stabilize it, even to bounce back a little, but you are right... It really could disappear, and be drowned out significantly, over the next centuries, but even this will be a slow process.

[Skynet]

@Verv

I think some kind of events can happen to stabilize it, even to bounce back a little, but you are right... It really could disappear, and be drowned out significantly, over the next centuries, but even this will be a slow process.

I think this will happen faster: Every generation (≈ 20 years) is halving. The last South-Korean will be born at the end of the century ( ≈ 4 generations)