noemon wrote:Worse? It is non-existant, you multiplied by 3-4 for Russia and did not multiply anything for Ukraine. You are not using a "smaller multiplier" and it has not just been Ukraine on the defensive either, the role interchanged when Ukraine went on the offensive in the summer of 2022 and Russia established its defenses.
Overall, I would say that Ukraine and Russia have spent around the same manpower today with Russia perhaps(according to western estimates) 10-15% more but which ratio has been decreasing significantly. During the start, Russia burned through soldiers very quickly and was up by even 100% probably for the first 6 months of the war but it eventually learned its lesson and has been lowering the man for man ratio to a point where now -even based on western estimates- stands in the region of 70-100k for both Russia and Ukraine each for soldiers alone and around 400-500k total "removed from war".
The discrepancy being within the 10-15% area when it initially was in the 100% area.
Therefore, not only Russia equalised the ratio but became a lot more efficient to bring it down a lot rather than keep it steady.
This trajectory continues.
What do you mean, I said Ukraine nonreturnable are 70-80k while total non-returnables+wounded are probably around 150-240k which is a 2-3 times multiplication. The number is lower sure, but as I said, there is a reason for that. A higher multiplier of 3-4 also be used if you believe it should be the same. Although I don't believe it since they are both in different circumstances. Also there is a bit of a difference between the war in general and last 6-9 months. It seems that, for example, under Avdiivka the Russians were trying to preserve a lot of the equipment and send people without armor. It is hard to quantify this data right now but either they are feeling the shortages of equipment or it was just in general a better tactic overall. Hard to say for now.
As for the ammount of manpower percentage wise that was used and they have available. You are probably closer to the truth that in the grander scheme of things and percentages the available manpower used and remaining is about the same actually. Once again, it is hard to "quantify" this because the countries are totally in two different situation that:
1) Ukraine is fighting for its existence and a defensive war basically.
2) Russia is fighting an offensive war and units are no that motivated to enlist or fight in the first place since the start.
Don't get me wrong, this is not a Russia specific thing, just any offensive war is harder on the moral requirement at any time in history. So I would say that we have to take this measurements with a grain of salt so to speak. Also we live in a different time, this ain't the 20th or the 19th century so people in general are not that fond of the idea of going to war to die at least in Europe.
On paper, Russia should have the advantage even under 1-2.5 to 1-3 non-returnable casualties. I would say Ukraine would need 1-4 or 1-5 to be safe. But that is on paper. How it will actually play out in this regard is horribly hard to predict. And the reason is simple, in the grander scheme of things the amount of people dying is sustainable for both sides for decades if not longer as long as the equipment and the money is there if we ignore the social/political/moral fallout from all this.