Say tensions escalate and Ukraine expels the Russian Black Sea Fleet from its territory. Russia follows up by invading Ukraine.
Will NATO get involved? Do they have mutual alliance treaties with Ukraine? If they do, will any other nation side with Russia?
That would an economic shit-storm since a good deal of European oil comes from Russia. If tensions continue to rise, I imagine the EU and NATO slapping the crap out of both of them (metaphorically) and telling them to play nice. If it does go to war, I imagine NATO would shatter into countries that rely on Russian oil, and the people who want to piss off Russia.
I think the NATO response would depend on how Russia actually went about invading, and if it goes that far, their occupation strategy.
For example if Russia simply rolled into the Crimea and some of the eastern parts of Ukraine and stayed there it would be pretty bold but at the same time it would be relatively difficult for NATO countries to deploy effective force to the area. On the other hand a full invasion and occupation probably couldn't go unanswered (or NATO would lose its credibility), and there is an easier 'in' with an operation launching from Poland etc. Alternatively you have the scenario in Georgia where Russian forces engage in a relatively limited offensive and don't end up as occupiers per se, where no only were NATO strategic options limited, but there wasn't any obvious reaction that didn't involve going directly into Russia itself (ie. there wasn't an option to simply fight until Russian forces withdrew from occupied territory).
As a side issue, NATO is somewhat surprisingly not that popular in the Ukraine:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2 ... in_Ukraine
Russia rolling into Ukraine is serious. South Ossetia - who cares - but Ukraine....that's serious.
I imagine, for starters, Russia would be shut off of markets in the West. Every western country would sanction them. They would never do this for that reason alone.
If they did it anyway, NATO is not in a position to stop it, but it would basically restart the Cold War.
Why is this surprising? Ukraine has never been pro-NATO, save for the poor rural regions of the west.
"I am in no way an apologist for Hitler or the Nazis, but I honestly believe that all sides in the Second World War have the same amount of blood on their hands." - Section Leader
No to both.
Russia could fairly easily take eastern ukraine and the crimea. Occupation would probably not be necessary. Western ukraine would need to be detached however, or occupied. Probably not worth it since it has no resources and is largely the rural part of the country. Let the EU absorb it.
Europe would have few options, it is reliant on russian gas and oil so it would just issue a strongly worded letter.
Nato can go fuck itself.
And go without russian oil or gas? Winter 2012 would be pretty fun for Europeans then.
Who cares about Ukraine? They be better of under Russia anyway, they are a failed state.
How is Ukraine a failed state, and how did Ukraine do better under Russia?
I lived there and I still got family members there and yeah thats pretty much a a failed state that will be better under russian controll.
Ukraine is not a failed state, but its independence is nevertheless nonsensical; both Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine have the same heritage, the Kievan Rus'. It would be like if Mecklenburg declared independence from Germany proper.
Ukraine is a second world state, with a decent economy and functional government. How the fuck is Ukraine a failed state?
Ukraine is a failed state and it allways was like that
-even people that are not considered poor can barely survive
-very high crime rate
-GDP per capita that is lower than some African and arab countries.
The makes most of the fucking world a failed state. Fuck, the US meets a bunch of those.
Last edited by Wolfman on Sun Nov 06, 2011 8:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Yeah but in the US there are problems in some areas in Ukraine there is shit everywhere the place with the least shit I have listed is Kiev.
I was in Ukraine a few months ago. It wasn't that bad; the infastructure is shit but when you go inside of the buildings themselves it's just like in Europe or in the US.
That doesn't change the fact that you made 2/3s of the world a failed state.
Ukraine (and it's military) would split in two: the East of the country is pro-Russian, the West is pro-West/EU. Russia would be taking a serious gamble since the EU wouldn't look to kindly on an invasion of one of their neighbours. If Russia does not enter Western Ukraine and doesn't annex Eastern Ukraine then the EU and NATO would go for a negotiated peace, perhaps with a referendum in Eastern Ukraine so the local population can decide whether they want to join Russia or not. If Russia enters Western Ukraine expect guerilla warfare from the locals and local military units, probably supported by special forces and ammo drops from the EU and possibly NATO, to force Russia to retreat to Eastern Ukraine. If Russia touches any EU member state that would mean full-blown war between Russia and the EU, something that the Russians will not risk, in other words: the Polish don't have to worry.
Zionist Nationalist wrote:
Without uncle sam,israel would be a failed state too.