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#13935348
Russia Is Massing Troops On Iran's Northern Border And Waiting For A Western Attack

WASHINGTON – The Russian military anticipates that an attack will occur on Iran by the summer and has developed an action plan to move Russian troops through neighboring Georgia to stage in Armenia, which borders on the Islamic republic, according to informed Russian sources.

Russian Security Council head Viktor Ozerov said that Russian General Military Headquarters has prepared an action plan in the event of an attack on Iran.

Dmitry Rogozin, who recently was the Russian ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, warned against an attack on Iran.

"Iran is our neighbor," Rogozin said. "If Iran is involved in any military action, it's a direct threat to our security." Rogozin now is the deputy Russian prime minister and is regarded as anti-Western. He oversees Russia's defense sector.

Russian Defense Ministry sources say that the Russian military doesn't believe that Israel has sufficient military assets to defeat Iranian defenses and further believes that U.S. military action will be necessary.

The implication of preparing to move Russian troops not only is to protect its own vital regional interests but possibly to assist Iran in the event of such an attack. Sources add that a Russian military buildup in the region could result in the Russian military potentially engaging Israeli forces, U.S. forces, or both.

Informed sources say that the Russians have warned of "unpredictable consequences" in the event Iran is attacked, with some Russians saying that the Russian military will take part in the possible war because it would threaten its vital interests in the region.

The influential Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper has quoted a Russian military source as saying that the situation forming around Syria and Iran "causes Russia to expedite the course of improvement of its military groups in the South Caucasus, the Caspian, Mediterranean and Black Sea regions."

This latest information comes from a series of reports and leaks from official Russian spokesmen and government news agencies who say that an Israeli attack is all but certain by the summer.

Because of the impact on Russian vital interests in the region, sources say that Russian preparations for such an attack began two years ago when Russian Military Base 102 in Gyumri, Armenia, was modernized. It is said to occupy a major geopolitical position in the region.

Families of Russian servicemen from the Russian base at Gyumri in Armenia close to the borders of Georgia and Turkey already have been evacuated, Russian sources say.

"Military Base 102 is a key point, Russia's outpost in the South Caucasus," a Russian military source told the newspaper. "It occupies a very important geopolitical position, but the Kremlin fears lest it should lose this situation."

With Vladimir Putin returning to the Russian presidency, the prospect that he again would order an attack on Georgia as he did in August 2008 also has become a possibility, these informed sources say.

The Russians believe that Georgia would cooperate with the United States in blocking any supplies from reaching Military Base 102, which now is supplied primarily by air. Right now, Georgia blocks the only land transportation route through which Russian military supplies could travel.

Fuel for the Russian base in Armenia comes from Iran. Russian officials believe this border crossing may be closed in the event of a war.

"Possibly, it will be necessary to use military means to breach the Georgian transport blockade and establish transport corridors leading into Armenia," according to Yury Netkachev, former deputy commander of Russian forces in Transcaucasia. Geography of the region suggests that any such supply corridor would have to go through the middle of Georgia approaching Georgia's capital of Tbilisi given the roads and topography of the country.

In September, the Russian military plans to hold its annual military exercises called Kavkaz 2012. However, informed Russian sources say that preparations and deployments of military equipment and personnel already have begun in anticipation of a possible war with Iran.

These sources report that new command and control equipment has been deployed in the region capable of using the Russian GPS system, GLONASS for targeting information.

"The air force in the South Military District is reported to have been rearmed almost 100 percent with new jets and helicopters," according to regional expert Pavel Felgenhauer of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation.

In 2008, Felgenhauer pointed out, Kavkaz 2008 maneuvers allowed the Russian military to covertly deploy forces that successfully invaded Georgia in August of that year.

Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov already has announced that new Spetznaz, or Special Forces units, will be deployed in Stavropol and Kislovodsk, which are located in the North Caucasian regions.

Russian sources say that the Russian military believes that if the U.S. goes to war with Iran, it may deploy forces into Georgia and warships in the Caspian Sea with the possible help of Azerbaijan, which since has stated that it will not allow its territory to be used by Israel to launch an attack on neighboring Iran.

There had been speculation that given the improved relations between Israel and Azerbaijan, the Jewish state may use bases from which to launch air attacks on neighboring Iran's nuclear sites. Israel recently agreed to sell Azerbaijan $1.6 billion in military equipment.

A further irritant to Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili is the prospect that Russian assault airborne troops, or VDV units, with helicopters could be moved into Georgia's two breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These two provinces were taken by the Russian military during the August 2008 Russian-Georgian war. Initially they were declared by Moscow to be independent countries, but now the Kremlin is indicating they may be annexed to Russia.

Similarly, Lt. General Vladimir Shamanov, commander of the VDV, has announced that Russian troops in Armenia will be reinforced by paratroopers, along with attack and transport helicopters.

"The Russian spearhead (from the Transcaucasia region) may be ordered to strike south to prevent the presumed deployment of U.S. bases in Transcaucasia, to link up with the troops in Armenia and take over the South Caucasus energy corridor along which Azeri, Turkmen and other Caspian natural gas and oil may reach European markets," Felgenhauer said.

"By one swift military strike, Russia may ensure control of all the Caucasus and the Caspian states that were its former realm, establishing a fiat accompli the West, too preoccupied with Iran, would not reverse," he said.

"At the same time, a small victorious war would unite the Russian nation behind the Kremlin, allowing it to crush the remnants of the prodemocracy movement 'for fair elections,' and as a final bonus, Russia's military action could perhaps finally destroy the Saakashvili regime."

Putin has made no secret that he despises Saakashvili and with his return to the presidency, he may consider taking out the Georgian president as unfinished business. Just as in 2008, Putin will not have much to worry about if he sends Russian troops into Georgia, since there was muted reaction from the U.S. and the European countries to the Russian invasion and subsequent occupation.
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-t ... ain-2012-4
http://g2bulletin.wnd.com/index.php?fa= ... z1rbM30aw1


It would certainly provide a window/opening for Russia to re-assert itself in the region and tie up a few loose ends (eg. eliminate pro-west georgian regime).
#13935426
Captain Sam wrote:What a load of rubbish. As if Russia would go to war with the West over Georgia. :roll:


Not directly, but simply use western aggression in Iran to justify it's own conquest of the caucasus. Russia wants georgia back, badly. As it stands it only needs justification. Iran could be the opening. A Georgia actively hindering regional russian troop movements and supply lines = justification for military occupation.

Image

That is the Russian goal. Iran, and by extension Georgia are the justifiers that can get the russian military into the region in full force. It looks like a fairly simple conquest, the russians will pull it off easy. It's their backyard. Surrounded by russian fleets in the caspain/black seas, airspace dominated by the russian airforce, and easily overrun by russian land forces, there is no hope for these statelets.

Russia would then be better positioned to spread it's influence over Iran and sell it arms.
Last edited by Igor Antunov on 10 Apr 2012 06:09, edited 1 time in total.
#13935433
Igor Antunov wrote:Not directly, but simply use western aggression in Iran to justify it's own conquest of the caucasus. Russia wants georgia back, badly. As it stands it only needs justification. Iran could be the opening. A Georgia actively hindering russian troops movements in this vital resource transit route region = justification for military occupation.

Image

That is the Russian goal. Iran, and by extnesion Georgia are the justifiers that can get the russian military into the region in full force. It looks like a fairly simple conquest, the russians will pull it off easy. It's their backyard. Surrounded by russian fleets in the caspain/black seas, airspace dominated by the russian airforce, and easily overrun by russian land forces, there is no hope for these statelets.

How does the western bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities justify Russia invading and annexing one of its neighbours? :roll:
Furthermore, why would Russia want to annex Georgia? :lol:
Last edited by Captain Sam on 10 Apr 2012 06:12, edited 1 time in total.
#13935439
How does the western bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities justify Russia invading and annexing one of its neighbours?


Well, for starters, hundreds of russians would die in the attacks, engineers who operate and maintain many of these russian built facilities.

This gives russia justification to render 'assistance' in whatever form. This could simply be russia moving ships, troops, bases etc closer to Iran. And to do this (i.e establish more routes to supply these new deployments) Russia would have to cross Georgian territory. Georgia would obviously not allow it. Russia would do it anyway. And there's the opening to introduce force against the only state in the region that actively opposed russian interests. Once georgian regime is ousted by force, the region is russian territory all but in name.
#13935445
There are no Russian nuclear engineers in Iran, and there hasn't been in well over a decade. Russia has in recent years voted in favour of arms embargoes and sanctions against Iran. The only involvement Russia has had is supervision of the Bushehr plant, which it had originally helped the Iranians build.

Russia and Iran are not friends.

Russia is not going to invade and annex Georgia for your incomprehensible reasons.
#13935488
I do have to laugh at Igors latest dreams of Russian glory, they would never go to war with any NATO member for the sheer fact that the conflict would snowball into a larger confrontation, the EU needs Russia for energy supply but it is a two-way street, without the EU buying Russian resources they have no economy. Also Russia would be very unlikely to come to the aid of Iran as they aren't even allies, the only thing they have of value is oil, which Russia has plenty of.

Be assured that before the US or Israel strike Iranian facilities they will give Russia warning, Russia does not want a nuclear armed Iran as much as any of Irans neighbours but their international stance at the moment is part of the good cop (Russia), bad cop (US\Israel) routine.
#13935493
Captain Sam wrote:There are no Russian nuclear engineers in Iran, and there hasn't been in well over a decade. Russia has in recent years voted in favour of arms embargoes and sanctions against Iran. The only involvement Russia has had is supervision of the Bushehr plant, which it had originally helped the Iranians build.

Russia and Iran are not friends.

Russia is not going to invade and annex Georgia for your incomprehensible reasons.

Of course those 2 countries are friends.
The US and Europe want the entire word to install cripling economical sanctions on Iran. And the Russia-China combination in the UN threw that plan in the trash. The UN sanctions that they did agree with are just a laugh.


Igor Antunov wrote:So which one is the NATO member you speak of, Israel or Georgia?

Israel is not part of NATO
#13935506
I'm more interested to know whether the Russians' sources saying an attack on Iran would take place before the summer are really true or just another bluff.

And it's very likely that the two countries would cooperate against the West, including China, regardless of Westerners' disbelief. The West has recently been involved in a lot of idiotically ballsy expansionist ventures. Stupidity must end eventually.
#13935511
Preston Cole wrote:I'm more interested to know whether the Russians' sources saying an attack on Iran would take place before the summer are really true or just another bluff.

Its all mussle flexing, to see how other countries will respond.


Its also like when Israel says they might just bomb Iran on their own... and listens to what others think about it. To figure out if they will be back up or not if they do. Just to see what possabilities are available. Up till now they had their ears pointed to the EU and US. So it will be intresting how Israel will respond to Russia. They probably won't say a peep... because they first need to discuss this scenario with the US.


There will be new rounds of talks about the Iranian nuclear weapons program soon in Turkey, by the way. I guess Russia showed one of their cards in advance of that.
#13935517
Igor Antunov wrote:So which one is the NATO member you speak of, Israel or Georgia?

Just sit and watch.


Most serious commentators and even some senior Israelis themselves recognise and acknowledge they do not have the capabilities to hit the Iranian facilities, any attack would be by the US, with Gulf state backing.

As for Russia using this to invade Georgia, it is extremely unlikely, and this is why:

1 - Russia had a free hand to invade and conquer Georgia in wake of the blunder they made in South Ossetia in 2008 but did not take it.
2 - Russia already has to contend with several armed resistance movements in the Caucasus already.
3 - Georgia is internationally recognised as a sovereign country, Russia would not be able to invade it without establishing a credible reason.
4 - Turkey (a NATO member) would not want to share a border with Russia and so would obstruct any Russian interference.
5 - The days of wholesale invasion and annexing countries are over, at best they would install a puppet regime, something they could have pursued in 2008 but didn't.
#13935537
5 - The days of wholesale invasion and annexing countries are over, at best they would install a puppet regime, something they could have pursued in 2008 but didn't.


That's what I've been saying. As for the first time, they didn't go all the way (regime change) because this kind of shit you do in steps. Russia is taking it slow, less resistance that way. First tear away a few chunks and annex them (south ossetia, abkhazia) then later you puppet the rest. You don't do it all in one go.
#13935725
AVT wrote:Most serious commentators and even some senior Israelis themselves recognise and acknowledge they do not have the capabilities to hit the Iranian facilities, any attack would be by the US, with Gulf state backing.

As for Russia using this to invade Georgia, it is extremely unlikely, and this is why:

1 - Russia had a free hand to invade and conquer Georgia in wake of the blunder they made in South Ossetia in 2008 but did not take it.
2 - Russia already has to contend with several armed resistance movements in the Caucasus already.
3 - Georgia is internationally recognised as a sovereign country, Russia would not be able to invade it without establishing a credible reason.
4 - Turkey (a NATO member) would not want to share a border with Russia and so would obstruct any Russian interference.
5 - The days of wholesale invasion and annexing countries are over, at best they would install a puppet regime, something they could have pursued in 2008 but didn't.



1. Russia did invade Georgia and have conquered part of it, while testing the international response in the process. They now have a permanent military presence there, will annex those break away regions at some stage and have dismantled the Georgian military, making future goals more easily obtainable.

2. I read some reports a while back that I could go looking for the again if needed. Russian intelligence has claimed those resistance movements have been in part supplied via Georgia. That's either a false excuse for further confrontation, or a genuine motivator for it. If either are true, it makes this scenario more likely not less.

3. Last I checked, Iran was also an internationally recognised sovereign country. If it's ok for NATO to continue invading countries at will, what is to stop Russia doing the same? I'm sure they can think of ways to justify it, at least to themselves. Worst case scenario they can just come up with something stupid like false claims of WMDs.

4. Possibly an influencing factor, but Turkey was not willing to do anything in 2008, why do we assume they would now?

5. Immediate annexation is not really an option, but removing the current government and installing a non NATO puppet certainly is. Saakashvili is not a very popular president anyway.
Also, Putin is coming back into the presidency. Didn't he make some threat to hang Saakashvili by the balls that he has yet to follow through with?

From what I've read lately, it looks quite plausible that Russia would invade Georgia if Iran is attacked. I'm starting to doubt if Israel is stupid enough to attack Iran though.
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