Russia Is Massing Troops On Iran's Northern Border And Waiting For A Western Attack
It would certainly provide a window/opening for Russia to re-assert itself in the region and tie up a few loose ends (eg. eliminate pro-west georgian regime).
So this is basically a threat to use a hypothetical war in Iran as a excuse to invade Georgia (because if the Russians were so worried about Iran they would just cross its shared border with it by sea if necessary)? Smart, but a dog that barks doesn't bite.
What a load of rubbish. As if Russia would go to war with the West over Iran.
Russia will wipe the US off the face of the earth.
Captain Sam wrote:
Not directly, but simply use western aggression in Iran to justify it's own conquest of the caucasus. Russia wants georgia back, badly. As it stands it only needs justification. Iran could be the opening. A Georgia actively hindering regional russian troop movements and supply lines = justification for military occupation.
That is the Russian goal. Iran, and by extension Georgia are the justifiers that can get the russian military into the region in full force. It looks like a fairly simple conquest, the russians will pull it off easy. It's their backyard. Surrounded by russian fleets in the caspain/black seas, airspace dominated by the russian airforce, and easily overrun by russian land forces, there is no hope for these statelets.
Russia would then be better positioned to spread it's influence over Iran and sell it arms.
Last edited by Igor Antunov on Tue Apr 10, 2012 6:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
Igor Antunov wrote:
How does the western bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities justify Russia invading and annexing one of its neighbours?
Furthermore, why would Russia want to annex Georgia?
Last edited by Captain Sam on Tue Apr 10, 2012 6:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
Well, for starters, hundreds of russians would die in the attacks, engineers who operate and maintain many of these russian built facilities.
This gives russia justification to render 'assistance' in whatever form. This could simply be russia moving ships, troops, bases etc closer to Iran. And to do this (i.e establish more routes to supply these new deployments) Russia would have to cross Georgian territory. Georgia would obviously not allow it. Russia would do it anyway. And there's the opening to introduce force against the only state in the region that actively opposed russian interests. Once georgian regime is ousted by force, the region is russian territory all but in name.
There are no Russian nuclear engineers in Iran, and there hasn't been in well over a decade. Russia has in recent years voted in favour of arms embargoes and sanctions against Iran. The only involvement Russia has had is supervision of the Bushehr plant, which it had originally helped the Iranians build.
Russia and Iran are not friends.
Russia is not going to invade and annex Georgia for your incomprehensible reasons.
I do have to laugh at Igors latest dreams of Russian glory, they would never go to war with any NATO member for the sheer fact that the conflict would snowball into a larger confrontation, the EU needs Russia for energy supply but it is a two-way street, without the EU buying Russian resources they have no economy. Also Russia would be very unlikely to come to the aid of Iran as they aren't even allies, the only thing they have of value is oil, which Russia has plenty of.
Be assured that before the US or Israel strike Iranian facilities they will give Russia warning, Russia does not want a nuclear armed Iran as much as any of Irans neighbours but their international stance at the moment is part of the good cop (Russia), bad cop (US\Israel) routine.
So which one is the NATO member you speak of, Israel or Georgia?
Just sit and watch.
Captain Sam wrote:
Of course those 2 countries are friends.
The US and Europe want the entire word to install cripling economical sanctions on Iran. And the Russia-China combination in the UN threw that plan in the trash. The UN sanctions that they did agree with are just a laugh.
Igor Antunov wrote:
Israel is not part of NATO
I'm more interested to know whether the Russians' sources saying an attack on Iran would take place before the summer are really true or just another bluff.
And it's very likely that the two countries would cooperate against the West, including China, regardless of Westerners' disbelief. The West has recently been involved in a lot of idiotically ballsy expansionist ventures. Stupidity must end eventually.
I wouldn't be shocked to see Russia using a conflict with Iran as cover for their occupying Georgia. Our media will be so tied up with 24/7 coverage of the bombs dropping on Tehran to report that Russian tanks are rolling through Tbilisi.
Preston Cole wrote:
Its all mussle flexing, to see how other countries will respond.
Its also like when Israel says they might just bomb Iran on their own... and listens to what others think about it. To figure out if they will be back up or not if they do. Just to see what possabilities are available. Up till now they had their ears pointed to the EU and US. So it will be intresting how Israel will respond to Russia. They probably won't say a peep... because they first need to discuss this scenario with the US.
There will be new rounds of talks about the Iranian nuclear weapons program soon in Turkey, by the way. I guess Russia showed one of their cards in advance of that.
Igor Antunov wrote:
Most serious commentators and even some senior Israelis themselves recognise and acknowledge they do not have the capabilities to hit the Iranian facilities, any attack would be by the US, with Gulf state backing.
As for Russia using this to invade Georgia, it is extremely unlikely, and this is why:
1 - Russia had a free hand to invade and conquer Georgia in wake of the blunder they made in South Ossetia in 2008 but did not take it.
2 - Russia already has to contend with several armed resistance movements in the Caucasus already.
3 - Georgia is internationally recognised as a sovereign country, Russia would not be able to invade it without establishing a credible reason.
4 - Turkey (a NATO member) would not want to share a border with Russia and so would obstruct any Russian interference.
5 - The days of wholesale invasion and annexing countries are over, at best they would install a puppet regime, something they could have pursued in 2008 but didn't.
Well when I said the tanks would be rolling into Tbilisi I didn't mean Georgia would become part of Russia. It would almost certainly be to install a puppet regime and cut up parts of Georgian territory.
That's what I've been saying. As for the first time, they didn't go all the way (regime change) because this kind of shit you do in steps. Russia is taking it slow, less resistance that way. First tear away a few chunks and annex them (south ossetia, abkhazia) then later you puppet the rest. You don't do it all in one go.
1. Russia did invade Georgia and have conquered part of it, while testing the international response in the process. They now have a permanent military presence there, will annex those break away regions at some stage and have dismantled the Georgian military, making future goals more easily obtainable.
2. I read some reports a while back that I could go looking for the again if needed. Russian intelligence has claimed those resistance movements have been in part supplied via Georgia. That's either a false excuse for further confrontation, or a genuine motivator for it. If either are true, it makes this scenario more likely not less.
3. Last I checked, Iran was also an internationally recognised sovereign country. If it's ok for NATO to continue invading countries at will, what is to stop Russia doing the same? I'm sure they can think of ways to justify it, at least to themselves. Worst case scenario they can just come up with something stupid like false claims of WMDs.
4. Possibly an influencing factor, but Turkey was not willing to do anything in 2008, why do we assume they would now?
5. Immediate annexation is not really an option, but removing the current government and installing a non NATO puppet certainly is. Saakashvili is not a very popular president anyway.
Also, Putin is coming back into the presidency. Didn't he make some threat to hang Saakashvili by the balls that he has yet to follow through with?
From what I've read lately, it looks quite plausible that Russia would invade Georgia if Iran is attacked. I'm starting to doubt if Israel is stupid enough to attack Iran though.
I welcome an attempt of Russia to take back Georgia. This way the world can see how fucking evil of a country Russia is. I hope for a day that it will be socially acceptable to openly discriminate against Russians in America.