[Igor Antunov]

THE Assad regime was within a few hundred metres of surrounding Aleppo yesterday, with rebels vowing to “fight to the last drop of our blood”.

If the Syrian army does ­besiege the country’s second ­biggest city, rebels will be starved of supplies, arms and new fighters, and it would deliver the ­biggest victory to Bashar al-Assad in the country’s four-year civil war. Rebel commanders predict Aleppo would fall back into ­regime hands within weeks.

Sami al-Rej, a spokesman for the Revolutionary Forces of Syria in Aleppo, who begged for Western military aid, said they would battle to the last and “fight constantly and will never stop ­because the people have spoken”.

Rebel commanders claim to hold a corridor of less than 1km wide amid ferocious fighting in the battle to keep Aleppo.

They said they had managed to retake parts of Malah village and the strategic Handarat hill, which fell to regime forces on Sunday.

Dozens were reported to have been killed on both sides after two days of fighting.

“These two bases were exhausting the rebel factions,” said Hussam Abu Bakr, a spokesman for the ultra-conservative Ahrar al-Sham group that fought with Jabhat al-Nusra, which is aligned to al-Qa’ida and a variety of other rebel groups.

“There are more deaths and more prisoners every hour.”

The battle for control of Aleppo, now in its second year, comes at a critical juncture for the civil war that has slowly pulverised one of the cultural jewels of the Middle East.

A victory for the regime would be a huge psychological blow to Western-backed rebel forces, leaving them without any major urban area under their control.

The narrowing rebel supply corridor that runs past an abandoned fairground and is the only way in to Aleppo has been under government artillery fire for nearly a year.

“I can say that the situation is critical now, despite the fierce ­resistance of the rebels and the heavy losses that the regime ­incurs.

“It is a battle for existence for rebels in Aleppo,” said Abdurrahman Saleh, a spokesman for Islamic Front, which is defending the city with the Western-backed Free Syrian Army.

Analysts said while anti-­government forces of different hues were making gains in some parts of the country, including the capture of two strategic government bases in Idlib province ­yesterday, the Syrian regime troops had the upper hand around Aleppo.

Video footage posted by Islamic Front showed their forces in intense gun battles with government troops who were advancing towards farms and villages north of the city.

“For the past two months I’ve been expecting regime forces to take Aleppo,” said Michael Stephens, deputy director of the Royal United Services Institute office in Qatar.

“It has happened slower than expected.”

UN officials have warned that the fall of the city would spur a fresh exodus of up to 400,000 refugees into neighbouring Turkey.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/wo ... 21a7f4710f

[Far-Right Sage]

The countdown to siege is at hand and a crushing defeat on the foreign backed scum imminent.

Rats will be eating their own brethren from the gutters and the sewer pipes by the time the SAA sweeps in and brings Aleppo's liberation to a victorious conclusion. There has been some talk of a Russian/EU/UN-mediated freeze, but it would be unwise to cease for even a day until their spirit is as utterly crushed as their bodies will be. It must be like Homs when a tightened cordon reduced rats to shadows of themselves and the full freeing of every Aleppine neighorhood.

Remember all the talk of Assad's days being numbered? Let's play that number game. How many days constitute the next 40 years?

[Igor Antunov]

When Aleppo and the north falls the threat from Turkish fed Islamists is effectively over. Finally the south west and east of the country can be cleaned out at the expense of IS and Jordanian /Saudi backed Islamists. Then Syria, Iraq, Iran can squeeze iraqs sunni crescent into submission. Saudi's will kick up a major fuss, will be interesting to see their influence in the middle east drop to zero and how they will respond to that.

[Il Duce]

With the fall of aleppo, the SAA will be able to free up their troops. It has been said for a while that whoever wins in Aleppo
will most likely win this war. Once the rebels are crushed, ISIS can be wiped out.

[pikachu]

Yeah except none of this is happening any time soon.

Syria is still in for a long war.

[Heisenberg]

“For the past two months I’ve been expecting regime forces to take Aleppo,” said Michael Stephens, deputy director of the Royal United Services Institute office in Qatar.

“It has happened slower than expected.”

They really will do anything to spin heavy "rebel" losses as a semi-victory, won't they?

This is excellent news. As pikachu says, this won't be over soon, but any blow to the troglodytes of the Islamic Front is encouraging.

[pikachu]

Really hard to give predictions for that war, but if I had to, I would predict something like this:

-Within the next year the rebel alliance will split between the pro-American "moderate wing" led by SRF and the anti-American "radical wing" led by Nusra Front. The US will increase its air strikes against the radical wing and force its Arab allies to get involved. In the meantime it will also increase its aid to the moderates. Consequently, the radicals will probably reconcile with the Islamic State and join forces with it.

-Slowly but surely, ISIS and allies will get steamrolled out of existence by the combination of Syrian government, Syrian moderate rebel, Iraqi government, Kurdish factions, and tribal militias, assisted by NATO/Arab coalition forces, Iran, and everyone else who's already in this. This may take 2 or 3 years.

-After the demise of ISIS and allies, the Syrian moderate rebels will be left practically one on one with the government and in a very weak position. Only the Kurds might help them, but they won't be able to do much. A "Geneva 3" conference will be held, by which the rebels (represented by the SNC) will be forced to accept token concessions in exchange for a negotiated surrender a-la Tajikistan 1997. If Tajikistan is any indication, the entire negotiation process may take a few years as well. Most of the remaining FSA and tribal units will become part of the Syrian army. The Kurdish regions will probably follow the Iraqi model - gain maximum autonomy but formally remain part of the Syrian state. Assad will appoint a new cabinet which will include members of the SNC, PYD, NCC, and any other party still around, and schedule new parliamentary and presidential elections. The war will have thus ended by about 2017.

[Rugoz]

FRS should kiss Obama's feet for saving Assad's ass.

[pikachu]

I agree, in the sense that it is primarily the position of the US government that leads me to believe that the long term prospects for Damascus are positive. There are other reasons too, of course.

But it's not like the US could have easily picked a different policy. Policy is born out of necessity, not out of whim.
The motivation for the US policy is probably rooted in Washington's belief that there is no real alternative to the regime in Damascus, and that if the SAA was to be defeated, there would be such chaos in the region that the US would be forced to introduce troops and get stuck there for decades trying to clean up that mess. Israel wouldn't mind that, perhaps, but US has had enough of "nation building" for a while. Since this is a reality which is not likely to ever change, therefore the US strategy in this respect is not likely to ever change either. What Washington wants is a negotiated solution - but, of course, it also realizes that no negotiated solution is possible as long as the rebels include forces like Jabhat al Nusra and other al Qaeda linked groups in their ranks. Therefore, the US is doing what it can in order to split the rebels into "moderates" and "radicals", and then crush the latter. Only after that is done will a negotiated solution become a possibility - until then they can hold Geneva 3 and Geneva 33 and it will get nowhere.

[Far-Right Sage]

I don't disagree fundamentally, but a few points:

1) It's counterproductive, I think, to view the non-Nusra insurgents as moderates and doesn't portray the real picture. Many individual factions have fought hand in hand with Nusra as recently as yesterday, in a coordinated offensive carried out in rural Idlib governorate. If you prefer working with and living under Al-Qaeda - which is all Jabhat al-Nusra is, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda central - over the Syrian government, then you are a Sunni Islamist radical and in no sense a moderate. These people would fight alongside the IDF if it meant being allowed to institute their form of Saudi-inspired rule in major population centres of Syria. This does not represent the moderate or mainstream position of Syrians.

2) The Kurdish factions will not, I believe, assist FSA and the non-Al-Qaeda Islamists (better term than moderates, I feel) with any joint operation outside of Syrian Kurdistan/Rojava. Not only have they made it clear that they have no ambitions outside their own ethnic territory, but the most "moderate" of the "moderates" still is anti-Kurdish in orientation, probably has a more classic Arab chauvinist view of the Kurds, and would not accept any Kurdish force occupying Arab towns. In this, they are no different than the government although their view is more Islamic than nationalistic-inspired (and even though Islamists have no interest in ethnic politics per se, many still view Islam through the prism of Arab civilization, Arabic is the Prophet's language, Kurds are treacherous interlopers, etc.) There are a few Kurdish Sunni Islamists fighting with ISIL but this is a small minority. Plus, the FSA has actually fought with Al-Qaeda on several occasions against Kurdish militias.

The most I have heard about cooperation is that there is a small battalion of FSA which essentially broke ranks after being turned on viciously by ISIL and co. in northern Syria fighting alongside the YPG militia resistance front in and around Kobane, and the YPG in turn has kept a neighborhood in Aleppo open through which the mainstream rats can ferry their supplies to prepare for and undermine siege. The Kurds are opportunists like no other. When the tide turns even further in Aleppo and overall, the PYD will restrict any cooperation with anyone to its own territory.

3) This is primarily directed to Rugoz, but do you believe Syria has anything to thank Washington for? If you country is invaded, torn apart and thrown through the bowels of bloody chaos from its major cities to its tiniest villages by terrorists provided with weapons, communication technology, training, financial support, and diplomatic cover - essentially given legitimacy by a superpower-led bloc to keep the good times rolling and the car bombs blowing - Will you look upon this favorably? Would anyone sane and rational unless they were with the terrorists themselves?

Syria should thank its army, its air force, its intelligence services, and above all the iron will of its president and leadership backed by the same from its national community. It is they who are liberating their country with each agonizing step and they won't rest until the beating heart of the Levant is free.

The arrogance is off the charts unbelievable to imagine a coalition of countries sponsor a thieving, raping, murderous terrorist mercenary army to level half your country and the targeted country for this coordinated policy of state terrorism/state-sponsored terrorism should be grateful.

[pikachu]

The Kurdish factions will not, I believe, assist FSA and the non-Al-Qaeda Islamists (better term than moderates, I feel) with any joint operation outside of Syrian Kurdistan/Rojava. Not only have they made it clear that they have no ambitions outside their own ethnic territory, but the most "moderate" of the "moderates" still is anti-Kurdish in orientation, probably has a more classic Arab chauvinist view of the Kurds

So far they appear to side with whoever is weaker in Syria to prevent a powerful opponent from emerging on their borders - a sound policy, I must say. If the SAA was emerging victorious and was in position to attack Rojava, the Kurds would understandably be worried that they are next, and would try to take the necessary precautions.

Let us also not forget, that PYD very clearly and unquestionably considers itself part of the "Syrian revolution", is opposed to the regime in Damascus, and its representatives have recently been re-admitted to the SNC (the main foreign opposition coordinating body). This is their stance from the beginning.

[roxunreal]

It's counterproductive, I think, to view the non-Nusra insurgents as moderates and doesn't portray the real picture. Many individual factions have fought hand in hand with Nusra as recently as yesterday, in a coordinated offensive carried out in rural Idlib governorate.

The SRF are what's left of the moderates, the Islamic Front that among other things control rebel held Aleppo are a mixed bag of everything from moderate islamists to islamic extremists, whereas Al-Nusra are jihadists. I don't know if you missed the part where SRF was routed from many of its holdings in Idlib by Nusra a few months ago?

The encirclement of Aleppo has been looming for over 6 months now. Though there's little chance that it won't happen, the battle for the city won't be won by Assad for a long time to come, unless the rebels collectively chicken out, for which chances aren't big from what we can see now. Coupled with the insurgency in the south and overall chaos in the east, it's safe to assume that Syria won't be fully Assad's for many years to come, if ever.