Study: 151,000 Iraqis died in conflict’s violence - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

Wandering the information superhighway, he came upon the last refuge of civilization, PoFo, the only forum on the internet ...

Talk about what you've seen in the news today.

Moderator: PoFo Today's News Mods

#1421939
Study: 151,000 Iraqis died in conflict’s violence
Surveyors face danger to count casualties from 2003 to 2006
Associated Press
updated 7:15 p.m. ET, Wed., Jan. 9, 2008
About 151,000 Iraqis died from violence in the first three years after the United States invaded, concludes the best effort yet to count deaths — one that still may not settle the fierce debate over the war's true toll on civilians and others.

The estimate comes from projections by the World Health Organization and the Iraqi government, based on door-to-door surveys of nearly 10,000 households. Experts called it the largest and most scientific study of the Iraqi death toll since the war began.

Its bottom line is far lower than the 600,000 deaths reported in an earlier study but higher than numbers from other groups tracking the count.

The new estimate covers a period from the start of the war in March 2003 through June 2006. It closely mirrors the tally Iraq's health minister gave in late 2006, based on 100 bodies a day arriving at morgues and hospitals. His number shocked people in and outside Iraq, because it was so much higher than previously accepted estimates.

No official count has ever been available. While the U.S. military says it does not track Iraqi deaths, it has challenged some news reports of tolls from shootings and bombings as exaggerated — indicating it does in fact monitor fatalities....

....The true toll may never be known. Many deaths go unreported in the chaos that has gripped the country, and the numbers may be tainted by sectarian bias; the Iraqi security forces and government are led by Shiites. Muslim burial traditions add to difficulties — many families are believed to simply bury loved ones before sundown on the day of death without ever reporting the fatality....

....Limiting the study to the time from the invasion in March 2003 to June 2006, and extrapolating results to the whole country, researchers arrived at the 151,000 estimate. The study authors say they are 95 percent certain that the true number is between 104,000 and 223,000. Iraq's population is roughly 26 million.

That seems low, especially because the new survey saw no increase in deaths in recent years, as previous surveys did, said Columbia University's Dr. Ronald Waldman, who has long done humanitarian research for WHO and others....

....The Associated Press began tracking civilian deaths after the new Iraqi government took office on April 28, 2005.

Since then, at least 37,547 Iraqis have lost their lives due to war-related violence, according to the AP toll, which is considered a minimum since many killings go unreported or uncounted. It's compiled from police, hospital officials, morgue workers and verifiable witness accounts, and reporters and photographers at the scenes. Insurgent deaths are not included.


This really does underscore what a goatfuck the Iraq war is. Especially compared to Afghanistan. Not that everything's peachy keen in 'Stan. The warlords still hold more real power than Pres. Karzai does and last year we managed to kill more civilians than the Talibs did. But still Afghanistan (at least as of July of last year according to the CIA's Worldfact Book) has 4,390,285 more people than Iraq does but the average annual casualties there are in the hundreds whereas in Iraq they're in the tens of thousands.

Bush really shot himself (and America) in the foot by invading Iraq. He should've stuck with the war in Afghanistan. It was more popular, both at home and abroad, and it was taken much more seriously, due to 'Stan's reputation as being Vietnam's West Asian cousin. Whereas the preparation for the invasion of Iraq was a mixture of cockiness and self-delusion. If he had applied the same level of objectivity in analyzing the situation in Iraq, he would've known to have left Iraq alone. Some corporations profitted from this but for everyone else it's a complete FUBAR.
User avatar
By Nets
#1421950
The important thing people often forget is that these deaths are Arabs butchering Arabs for the most part.

No, that doesn't make it any less sad though. :(

This number seems far more reasonable than the original 600,000, but the methodology in both isn't rock solid. This war has been such a disaster. :*(

Here's to hoping the Sunnis and Shias can strap it down and get along, and the Kurds and Turks can stop antagonizing each other. :hmm: Really, I just don't get what's going on.

(Although I certainly don't miss Saddam, but the Iraqis might)
User avatar
By Gletkin
#1421971
NetsNJFan87 wrote:The important thing people often forget is that these deaths are Arabs butchering Arabs for the most part.

We don't know how much of these people was killed by who. The article didn't say.

But this sectarian civil war happened under our watch. Yeah, yeah, I know. Saddam killed fuckloads of people. But he was in power for over two decades and in just three years we and the "free democratic" Iraq we've created are already giving him a run for his money. Plus most of Saddam's killings occurred as part of his counter-insurgency campaigns. Once the rebellions were crushed, the number of killings dropped. By the time we invaded, things were relatively quiet in Iraq. Now, once again, tens of thousands of Iraqis are being killed. Tens of thousands died under Saddam's iron-fisted order. Now tens of thousands are dying under the chaos that we've unleashed.

It wasn't just lefties who opposed the invasion. People like Maj. Gen. Anthony Zinni, Brent Snowcroft,..heck even Norman Schwarzkopf himself!...opposed invading Iraq.
But I guess Bush Jr. and the hawks had to learn the hard way. Unfortunately they had to drag the rest of the nation into this mess as well.
User avatar
By droodle
#1422019
The difference between this and The Lancet's study is that this study focuses on deaths by violence, and excludes indirect deaths from deteriorated living conditions. It does not disprove The Lancet's study. On the other side, The Lancet said that out of the 654,000 died 600,000 died of violence, so the difference should not be this great.

To quote from the WHO website:

"Some homes could not be visited because of high levels of insecurity and more people move residence in times of conflict. These factors were taken into account in the analysis as they may affect the accuracy of the survey work," said Salih Mahdi Motlab Al-Hasanawi, Minister of Health of Iraq.

The weird thing is, they used about the same methodolgy as The Lancet - what explains the variance.
By SpiderMonkey
#1422082
That seems low, especially because the new survey saw no increase in deaths in recent years, as previous surveys did, said Columbia University's Dr. Ronald Waldman, who has long done humanitarian research for WHO and others....


So basically the survey contradicts observed facts. I'm going to stick with our best estimate being the Lancet one, which has not been opposed by any serious statistician. And remember kids, that 650,000 is on top of the number Saddam would've killed in a similar time period.

You guys are probably over a million kills now.
User avatar
By Looter
#1422106
They just dropped 40 tons of explosives on southern Baghdad, the surge is working! They used B-1 bombers, this probably is how they get these civilian casualties.
User avatar
By Oxymoron
#1422136
Again the only number of dead in Iraq that matters in the US is around 3000. Sorry but thats the truth.
By SpiderMonkey
#1422140
Again the only number of dead in Iraq that matters in the US is around 3000. Sorry but thats the truth.


And that is why Arabs feel no remorse when they kill 3000 Americans. Why should they?

Have fun living in fear forever.
User avatar
By Oxymoron
#1422147
And that is why Arabs feel no remorse when they kill 3000 Americans. Why should they


We dont need their fake remorse.
User avatar
By sazerac
#1422173
The Lancet reports were complete bullshit paid for by George Soros. It's pretty scary when billionaires start pushing buttons and inventing the "truth." Terrorists used the Lancet reports to recruit new terrorists.

And all you sheep fell for it even though the studies were absurd and the results were impossible.

Thanks, George and Lancet for lying to the world. Shame!

http://news.nationaljournal.com/article ... /index.htm
User avatar
By Beren
#1422176
Again the only number of dead in Iraq that matters in the US is around 3000. Sorry but thats the truth.

It is not the truth, becuse in this case all Americans would be for the war in Iraq. 3,000 American soldiers' lives would worth a peaceful oil-rich-and-America-friend Iraq to the US. However, this war leads nowhere, but violence killing too many Iraqis, and this simply makes no sense according to the most of the Americans by now.
And it costs too much money, of course. :roll:
User avatar
By sazerac
#1422179
So how many would have been killed if the West just stayed out of it and let them all slaughter each other getting rid of a tyrant and then trying to seize power? Or should the minority Sunnis have kept power and just continued the brutal apartheid system?

We gave 25 million people on this planet a serious opportunity to replace tyranny with democracy and liberty. Anything else is just antiwar spin.
User avatar
By Beren
#1422181
The Iraqi people should be asked what the American invasion and occupation have given them and taken away from them. As far as I can judge the most of them want the US-troops to leave, in conjunction with the most of the American people.
By dasnd12
#1422182
I can't speak for all American's but i can speak for myself - I do not and will not ever - live in fear!

The one thing i don't understand about Iraq is - why does it seem that Iraqi's have no sense of patriotism for their country? Why dont they stand up as Iraqi's (not Sunnis or bathists or whatever) but as a country and say - we are not going to live like this anymore - kick out the foreign fighters and terroists and claim their country back?? If they would do this - we would be out of there in no time.


I just dont get it??![/quote]
User avatar
By Beren
#1422184
If they would do this - we would be out of there in no time.

You should be out of Iraq inconditionally, it's not your land. You cannot do any more for them.
By SpiderMonkey
#1422201
Oh boy, must be a full moon again, cause they are all coming out the woodwork

sazerac wrote:The Lancet reports were complete bullshit paid for by George Soros. It's pretty scary when billionaires start pushing buttons and inventing the "truth." Terrorists used the Lancet reports to recruit new terrorists.

And all you sheep fell for it even though the studies were absurd and the results were impossible.

Thanks, George and Lancet for lying to the world. Shame!

http://news.nationaljournal.com/article ... /index.htm


The conspiracy theory of a hack who suddenly decides not to trust stats derived from clustering (as the vast majority of mortality studies are - I bet he didn't dispute the Tsunami death toll did he?) is no substitute for a scientific argument.

dasnd12 wrote:I can't speak for all American's but i can speak for myself - I do not and will not ever - live in fear!


If you supported the invasion of Iraq, and the Patriot Act (and by your tone, I'll take a stab in the dark and say you did) then you are a very fearful person.

The one thing i don't understand about Iraq is - why does it seem that Iraqi's have no sense of patriotism for their country? Why dont they stand up as Iraqi's (not Sunnis or bathists or whatever) but as a country and say - we are not going to live like this anymore - kick out the foreign fighters and terroists and claim their country back?? If they would do this - we would be out of there in no time.


Iraqis do have a sense of patriotism, hence they are fighting the foreign army that has occupied their country. The idea that its just 'foreign fighters' is such bullshit that not even the Bush administration often says it anymore.

I just dont get it??!


That much is clear.
User avatar
By sazerac
#1422206
The conspiracy theory of a hack who suddenly decides not to trust stats derived from clustering (as the vast majority of mortality studies are - I bet he didn't dispute the Tsunami death toll did he?) is no substitute for a scientific argument.

baaaaahhhhhh....I hear the sound of sheep.
By SpiderMonkey
#1422219
baaaaahhhhhh....I hear the sound of sheep.


That is a fairly normal response from a conspiracy theorist who has just been called on his dodgy sources :lol:
User avatar
By Nets
#1422225
Iraqis do have a sense of patriotism, hence they are fighting the foreign army that has occupied their country. The idea that its just 'foreign fighters' is such bullshit that not even the Bush administration often says it anymore.


Except that they are fighting each other more than they are fighting the U.S.A.

Furthermore, if they wanted us to leave they'd stop fighting, Bush would hastily declare victory and get the hell out. Every IED and car bomb humiliating the fledgling Iraqi democracy only extends our stay.
User avatar
By sazerac
#1422231
That is a fairly normal response from a conspiracy theorist who has just been called on his dodgy sources

Hey, sheep, the World Health Organization, the government of Iraq, the United Nations and IraqBodyCount all back up my "conspiracy theory."

If you want to believe a bunch of screaming antiwar lunatics bought and paid for with George Soros's money go right ahead.

You're all a buncha prudes. GET LAID!

By that definition, if you obtained a DNA a census[…]

Let me guess, this is going to be one of THOSE thr[…]

Yours is not history, just tinfoil-hat nonsense[…]