[wraith261]

I hope he's right....

Stephen Schork is the president of The Schork Group. He also consults for major oil firms, OPEC member countries, and hedge funds.

Stephen Schork: The estimates are that oil right now is essentially fairly valued at about $95 a barrel. This is essentially why all the major Wall Street houses back in December, when they were giving us their 2008 forecast, all their average ranges ranged between $85 and $95. So anything above and beyond that is essentially this speculative bubble. There is no doubt what we are seeing now is long-term bullish prognostications. This has created a panic. People are moving in this market. This is nothing unlike what we saw in the dot-com market in the late 1990s. When this bubble bursts -- and it will burst -- we're going to go right back to where we started from, below fair market value, below $95, back towards $70, when this all began last August.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/jan-june08/oilprices_06-24.html
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[SeriousCat]

Stephen Schork: The estimates are that oil right now is essentially fairly valued at about $95 a barrel. This is essentially why all the major Wall Street houses back in December, when they were giving us their 2008 forecast, all their average ranges ranged between $85 and $95. So anything above and beyond that is essentially this speculative bubble.

I don't want to sound pedantic, but Schork used the word "essentially" once in each sentence for three consecutive sentences; his limited vocabulary is annoying.

[NYYS]

I agree. The speculators have way overshot.

It's going to be hella nice for everyone in a year or so, when gas price is suddenly halved and they've been budgeting for $4-$5/gallon. They're going to suddenly have thousands of dollars a year left over.

[wraith261]

I edited the full quote a bit, that may be why it sounds awkward. Scroll down to the bottom of that link if you want to read it in its entirety.

[wraith261]

I agree. The speculators have way overshot.
Not only that, all the fund managers have raced in to buy oil contracts while the market is hot just like they bought shares of the dot coms which drove the Nasdaq index to ridiculously high levels. We may still see $5 a gallon gas but once this bubble pops we'll be back in the upper $2, low $3 dollar a gallon range

It's going to be hella nice for everyone in a year or so
And of course the new president (whoever he is) will try to take credit for it.

[SeriousCat]

And of course the new president (whoever he is) will try to take credit for it.

But that would be dishonest!

[Dr House]

But that would be dishonest!

We need a sarcasm tag.

-Dr House

[MVictorP]

We need a sarcasm tag.

Indeed we do, good doctor.

Sarcasm is an essential, post-modern mean of psychological survival.

Caricaturists are the only credible philosophers nowadays.

[QatzelOk]

The estimates are that oil right now is essentially fairly valued at about $95 a barrel.

What does this even mean, "essentially fairly valued at about this estimate?"

He uses so many qualifiers, that I'm thinking he must essentially be more-or-less talking through his hat, sort of.

[wraith261]

What does this even mean, "essentially fairly valued at about this estimate?"
From the quote...."This is essentially why all the major Wall Street houses back in December, when they were giving us their 2008 forecast, all their average ranges ranged between $85 and $95."

In other words the best minds in the futures markets who took into account all the global variables of supply and demand stated that the actual value of oil in 2008 should be $85 to $95 dollars a barrel.

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[QatzelOk]

the best minds

Is that how the market works? Supply and best minds?

I always thought the demand played a role, but I guess I was essentially sort of mistaken, kind of.

[wraith261]

Is that how the market works? Supply and best minds?
I repeat....In other words the best minds in the futures markets who took into account all the global variables of supply and demand stated that the actual value of oil in 2008 should be $85 to $95 dollars a barrel.

So yes, that is how the market works.

I always thought the demand played a role, but I guess I was essentially sort of mistaken, kind of.
Or you essentially didn't even read what I wrote...kind of.


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[QatzelOk]

Or you essentially didn't even read what I wrote...kind of.

You actually wrote something?

All I see you do is bold-quote others writing, and then place some bland regurgitated commercial media meme under it. This is useless. We are all familiar with conventional media thinking - we don't need you to rehash it for us.

[wraith261]

You actually wrote something?
Yes, it had letters and words and even some punctuation.

All I see you do is bold-quote others writing, and then place some bland regurgitated commercial media meme under it.
It's simply my writing style. In the future I'll try to make it a bit more exotic (and maybe even erotic.)

We are all familiar with conventional media thinking - we don't need you to rehash it for us.
I am merely expounding on what this expert was saying about the oil futures markets I'm sorry if this agitates you.

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[Nets]

House, let him get it out of its system.

N00bs first encounters with Qatz or Spidermonkey are always entertaining.

[wraith261]

N00bs first encounters with Qatz or Spidermonkey are always entertaining.
Don't forget NoRapture, Ingliz and MVictorP, they too are the backbone of intellectual thought on this board.

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[QatzelOk]

I am merely expounding on what this expert was saying
What expert? Do you mean Nostradamus?

Or do you think some guy with an MBA (does he even have one of these?) and a media connection (why else would anyone print his horrible writing?) can tell the world what the "real" price of oil really kind of should be in a way essentially?

Anyone could call themselves a "Marshmallow Expert" and tell us that they really "should" cost five dollars each. So what? The actual price is what we pay, and the future price will depend on supply and demand, and not some mouthpiece with too many adjectives in each undergrad sentence.

[wraith261]

What expert? Do you mean Nostradamus?
So your argument in this thread is that there are no experts on oil commodities. Yet another profound QatzelOk conclusion.

Or do you think some guy with an MBA (does he even have one of these?) and a media connection (why else would anyone print his horrible writing?) can tell the world what the "real" price of oil really kind of should be
Yes, nevermind the fact that Wall Street experts have been doing this for decades. It's not an exact science and he may be wrong but I'll take his word over yours for now.

Anyone could call themselves a "Marshmallow Expert" and tell us that they really "should" cost five dollars each.
I'm sorry Qatzel, but since he's consulting for major oil firms, OPEC member countries, and hedge funds and since the "News Hour with Jim Lehrer" is a respected news source, I'll again take his word over yours...thanks.

So what? The actual price is what we pay, and the future price will depend on supply and demand
Which is exactly what the Wall Street analysts try to determine based on the latest data when they forecast future prices.

I have no idea what you're screeching about here or why you have such antagonism for what this individual said. Try to calm down just a little.

.

[QatzelOk]

I'm sorry Qatzel, but since he's consulting for major oil firms, OPEC member countries, and hedge funds and since the "News Hour with Jim Lehrer" is a respected news source, I'll again take his word over yours...thanks.

So for you, this guy is credible because of oil company links and prominent media placement. Big Media and Big Oil have sold you yet another Edsel of infotainment.

[wraith261]

So for you, this guy is credible because of oil company links and prominent media placement.
When talking about oil prices I guess it is a liability to have on your resume that you're a consultant to major oil firms as well as OPEC.

Big Media and Big Oil have sold you yet another Edsel of infotainment.
I just haven't evolved enough where I'm willing to get all my news from agenda driven web blogs where anyone can post whatever they want; be patient with me.

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