[MediaCritic]

as some of you probably know, there is currently a new miniwar going on since the 8th. and the reporting on it in most Western TV and newspapers is so horribly warped that i'm seriously angry by now. so i thought i'd write down some key facts again, both to give you a better picture of the situation and for my own reference, so that i can point people to it if i have to.

1. Ethnogeographic background

the region in question is South Ossetia:



its background is that it is a sub-territory of Georgia, however to about 80% inhabited by Ossetians who are ethnically a different nation with their own language and culture. Ossetia was more or less forcefully (as well as Abchasia) integrated into the Georgian SSR by the Bolsheviks/Stalin (btw for those who dont know: Stalin was himself a Georgian, his real name being Iosef Dzhugashvili), with a more or less random border being drawn through it dividing it in North and South Ossetia, North Ossetia having a lot more ethnic Russians (and being part of Russia), and South Ossetia mostly ethnic Ossetians. however, as usual, after the collapse of the USSR in the 90s all of those border republics started to want independence, and South Ossetia was no exception. This led to a conflict between Ossetia and Georgia already in 1991, as a result about 100,000 Ossetians fled into the Russian North Ossetia, about 20.000 Georgians to Georgia, there was a ceasefire forced on Georgia by Russia, and an OSCE peacekeeping force was deployed in South Ossetia (staffed by Russians since the UN said they had no troops to spare for it). since USSR passports were no longer valid, Ossetians had the choice between getting a Georgian and a Russian passport, and the vast majority (over 90%) opted for the Russian one - which was a rather obvious choice given that in Georgia they are rather looked down upon and discriminated against. since then, the situation remained more or less in a suspended state (no war, but occasional small conflicts) until yesterday night.

2. Behind the scenes in Georgia

now, to understand the reasons for what happened next, it is a good idea to take a step back and look at the current Georgian leadership and what they did in the last years. the current Georgian president is Mikhail Saakashvili, who came to power in 2003 in an unbloody coup after the election of the previous president Eduard Shevardnadze was considered rigged and he stepped down after a couple weeks of demonstrations (the so-called "Rose Revolution"). from the outset his general position was highly nationalistic, pro-US, and anti-Ossetian/Russian. why? nationalism and ethnic distinctions were very popular in Georgia at the time - like in many other places in times of instability and economic troubles (just take Germany in the Weimarer Republic times - Hitler made it very far with rather similar slogans). some other noteworthy details of his career are that he received a scholarship from the US State Department, studied at the Columbia Law School and George Washington University, and worked at a NY law firm. he is believed to maintain close ties with the US goverment, and has met with Bush and Rice (who visited Tbilisi and expressed support for Saakashvili's course). during his government, Georgia has received massive support in weapons and military training from NATO members (USA, Turkey, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic), increasing its military budget from $30 mil in 2002 to over $1 billion in 2008 (now almost 10% of the GDP - for comparison the Russian military budget is just 2.5% of the GDP, source: Izvestia.ru). over 8 thousand Georgian officers were trained in the USA and Turkey. as a total NATO countries provided Georgia with 175 tanks, 126 armored vehicles, 4 warplanes, 12 attack helicopters and 8 ships (source: RIA Novosti). Georgia under Saakashvili is considered a strategically important ally of the US (quote Bush) and provides 2000 troops for the US war in Iraq - 3rd largest force there after the US and the UK. currently there are over 2000 US citizens in Georgia, mostly military advisors/personnel (source: Reuters). in the last 2 years though, Saakashvili's internal popularity has dwindled strongly, with accusations of corruption in his cabinet and authoritarian, hardcore moves against the (already almost non-existing) opposition.

3. Recent events

now, what happened in the last days? on August 4th-7th, there were minor skirmishes on the Ossetian-Georgian border as a lot of times before, with a total of about 15 casualties on the 7th. around 20h on the 7th of August (the day before the opening of the Olympiad btw), Saakashvili appeared on Georgian TV and offered “an immediate ceasefire and an immediate beginning of talks” with South Ossetia. He repeated an offer of autonomy within Georgia, saying that he was willing to make Russia the guarantor of any agreement (source: Times Online and RIA Novosti). However, only a short time after, around 23h, lots of Georgian forces were moved into position around Tskhinvali (South Ossetian capital). Russian peacekeepers became aware of it and requested explanation from Georgia repeatedly, but were told that the troops are being drawn off (source: peacekeeper commander-in-chief Murat Kulahmetov). about midnight of the 8th, massive Georgian artillery and ground-to-ground Grad missile fire started targeting Tskhinvali, supported by some attacks from Georgian assault planes. almost all buildings in the city centre were damaged, with a large number of almost exclusively civilian victims (the total count from the 8th is around 1500 dead in Tskhinvali - RIAN), but also 12 casualties and around 50 wounded among Russian peacekeepers (their camp was directly targeted by tank fire - it was shown on Russian TV how it now looks). the casualties had to be expected/desired by the Georgians, as the Grad (Russian for "hail") system is basically meant for a complete destruction of unarmored area targets such as infantry positions, buildings, or groups of light vehicles, and results in total slaughter when fired on a city (it fires up to 40 100-152 mm unguided missiles in very close succession which detonate in an area of like 1km^2 up to 20km away):



the city itself was almost destroyed, with buildings such as the university and the city hospital burning, and by now around 30,000 more inhabitants have fled towards the Russian border (source: numerous Russian and Ukrainian TV and news reports):

(Tskhinvali early 8th)

(news from late 8th)

around 3am on the 8th, Georgia launched a tank attack on Tskhinvali supported by infantry. they were met by Ossetian forces (which are however far weaker). at 4:30am, Russia called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. around 10 am, the emergency meeting of the SC did not result in any resolution on the conflict. around noon on the 8th, Russia responded with warplanes being deployed into Ossetian airspace and the 58th army tank divisions moving towards Tskhinvali as well. around evening of the 8th, Georgian forces retreated from Tshkinvali, however hid themselves in the hilly forest areas around the city and continue firing at it occasionally.


4. Motives

one may ask himself - why in hell would Georgia want to perform such an attack when it is sure there will be an immediate Russian response - who Georgia certainly cannot hope to win against, no matter its military budget.

however, if one thinks a bit, the answer is really not difficult, and there are tons of hints that all indicate the same. Saakashvili's central goal is not to win - it is to drive as many Ossetians out of South Ossetia as possible (and kill a lot in the process). the nighttime first-strike usage of area-attack Grad systems against Tskhinvali, the quick withdrawal of Georgian troops once Russia entered the conflict, the almost instant Saakashvili request for ceasefire after their attack, are about as clear indications of that as it gets. there are only about 70000 or so Ossetians actually left in South Ossetia after the repressions of the '91 war led to massive refuge streams into North Ossetia. with 30000 of them having fled the same direction already now, more sure to follow if the fighting continues, and the capital in ruins, Saakashvili can be fairly certain that South Ossetia as an ethnic province will simply cease to exist - thus solving all Georgian problems with it. its just plain and simple ethnic cleansing. there would simply be no point for Russia to defend a foreign territory where nobody even lives anymore.

while it is quite obvious that is the main objective of the Georgians here, there are more. if the above approach proves successful with Ossetia, there is no reason for Georgia not to do it a second time with the other wannabe-independent province, Abchasia. furthermore, the whole conflict serves as a good measuring stick for the Pentagon planners behind Saakashvili for the ability of the Russian military to respond to such events. it also clearly quite weakens Russia politically, and creates it a bad international image - especially with the extremely biased western reporting (see below). Saakashvili's almost comically overblown PR efforts are a clear indication of that - his speeches are almost all in English (even on Georgian TV), he constantly has the EU flag behind him (although Georgia has no relation to the EU), and he produces lots of unverifiable or just plain ridiculous statements - some samples:

"Russia has been bombing Georgia specifically targeting civilian population, and we have scores of wounded and dead among civilian population all around the country, and these are exclusively civilians"

"Russian troops are fighting against Georgian self-defense (sic) troops.. this is the worst nightmare one can encounter"

"They have been preparing and studying world opinion, how the world would react, and now they have just moved in, this is unheard of, absolutely outrageous"
(right.. they've been carefully studying world opinion in order to move in at the worst possible time)

"Russian president Putin has often told me this all is unacceptable for him, not only my close relations with the US and the West, but the political system Georgia has opted for - democracy and freedom" (carbon copy of the famous American question "why do they hate our freedom and democracy")

"We are attacked because we wanted to be free, because we wanted to build genuine democracy" (right.. destroying a city and killing lots of civilians had absolutely nothing to do with it)

"look at the timing: Olympic games, people dont care about politics, American elections, you know, most of the statesmen are gone for the holidays, and its ideal time to attack this small country.. i think it is a very well-planned provocation" (when i heard this I almost fell off my chair.. i think he forgot to add "by me")

"at 24am Russian APCs started to cross into Georgian territory, and there we had to act, there we had to fire back the artillery" (firing Grads on the centre of Tskhinvali to stop (mythical) Russian APCs crossing Georgian border 50km away.. yeah right..)

"this small nation is right now fighting for its survival, but we are also fighting for world peace and future world order" (this is so ridiculous that it needs no comment)

sources:
CNN interview

Reuters:

another potential goal of his may be to counter his recent drop in inner-Georgian popularity and the weak results and poll falsification accusations for the 2008 election, which is not so different from the old US strategy of inciting external conflicts to distract from deficiencies in inner politics.

so...all in all nothing really surprising here except perhaps the fact that the lunatic Saakashvili actually attacked a city and killed almost 2000 people on the opening day of the Olympic games - a fact unprecedented in history. if that was really authorized by his Pentagon bosses (and, well, given his very close ties to the US it must have been) then... man... they still live in the age of napalm and dropping nukes on Hiroshima.


5. Western news coverage

and now lets look at the way the western press and TV reported the issue... really an interesting study in indirect lying and propaganda techniques. first of all, the initial highly destructive, cruel, and underhanded Georgian attack on Tskhinvali was practically not reported in the US, or only as a minor footnote. their first messages about the war:

CNN: "Georgia under attack: Russian tanks invade". first CNN commentator about the war: Mikhail Saakashvili. he complains in English (with the EU flag in background - Georgia isnt even a EU member (!)) about being a poor victim of Russian aggression - while in the background they show the Georgian Grad systems firing at Tskhinvali (!!). they quote the number of people killed in Tskhinvali - but only once and in what a great way: "South Ossetia: 1600 killed in fighting" during the Saakashvili please-help-us speech. implied picture for the viewer: Russians killed them all. in the whole hour of the report, there is zero information from the Russian side, and zero information from the Ossetian side. just the Georgian "information" - with Saakashvili appearing 3 times.

British Sky News: same picture. first report: footage of Grads firing, and a comment of "Georgian side states that 7 of its citizens have been wounded in Russian strikes". followed by footage of Russian T-90s rolling into Ossetia. 1500 people killed by Georgians? Tskhinvali in ruins? too unimportant to notice. instead they show a split picture of left: reservists drafted by Saakashvili standing around in civil clothes looking noob, and on the right modern Russian T-90 tanks in antiradar camouflage and BTRs rolling by. another great (not-so-)subtle way to brainwash people into believing crap.

BBC: same. first TV report: Russian warplanes are bombing Georgian town of Gori. term they use to call the Ossetians: "separatists". headline article on BBC website: "Russian tanks enter South Ossetia", with subheadline "Georgia is fighting with separatists backed by Russia".

Times: same. "Russia turns might of its war machine on rebel neighbour Georgia", "Georgia calls for ceasefire after Russian invasion".

Washington Post: even worse. Headline: "Stopping Russia: The U.S. and its allies must unite against Moscow's war on Georgia".

The Guardian: "Russian tanks roll into Georgia as cities burn".

source: compilations of western TV clips and news website articles:

for a bit of a contrast, in Germany, the initial Georgian attack was reported, and the whole news picture is somewhat more balanced. the SPD (one of the parties in the currently ruling coalition) criticized Georgia, its minister for foreign affairs Gernot Erler calling it a violation of international rights by Georgia, and the Russian response understandable (source: n-tv.de). however, the predominant TV coverage is still from correspondents in Georgia showing the Georgian point of view (a la "help us poor victims of Russian aggression").

German/Austrian/Swiss newspapers are in general less propagandistic too and the serious ones like FAZ or Die Zeit give a more balanced view, reporting the attack on Tskhinvali and analyzing the facts, with conclusions similar to what i wrote above. an article in the Austrian Der Standard by politics professor and East Europe expert Gerhard Mangott at the Universität Innsbruck said that the military escalation is exclusively in Georgia's interest, with Russia having no other choice than to respond by striking Georgian military.

the Swiss Neue Zürcher Zeitung called Saakashvili a provocateur and described him as "having lost the sense for reality".

still, from my general impression observing the news reporting in the last 2 days: how low can those so-called Western "journalists" and media sink? their "information" is disinformation^2. so, please, DONT TRUST YOUR TV AND NEWSPAPERS. read independent sources and papers like German/Austrian/Swiss ones. if all those media can get as perverse as defending this underhanded, cruel, calculated attack and the following hypocritical whining, they really arent far from the level of Goebbels' Propagandaministerium which called invading Poland - using the mightiest military machine in the world at the time - "self-defense".

[pikachu]

tl;dr. Also you probably watch Russian TV.

[MediaCritic]

tl;dr. Also you probably watch Russian TV.

if even that short essay is too long for you to read, you have zero chance whatsoever to make any kind of informed statement on this issue. and yes, I do watch Russian TV, along with Ukrainian, German, Swiss, British, US, and French TV.

[pikachu]

Therefore you're brainwashed, just like the rest of us. Your "independent analysis" cannot be any more credible than whatever I can get from the mass media itself.

[MediaCritic]

Therefore you're brainwashed, just like the rest of us. Your "independent analysis" cannot be any more credible than whatever I can get from the mass media itself.

I just know far more, and thus my picture is a good deal more balanced.

[Anothroskon]

The situation is directly analogous to Kossovo. The hypocricy of both the West and Russia is evident now as they have assumed positions directly opposite to what they had assumed in that conflict.

Whereas before the West disregarded national sovereignty in favor of human rights now it does the opposite when the sovereignty of one of its (putative) allies is threatened. Because Georgia DID in fact try to ethnically cleane the Ossetians.

Russia now uses exactly the same arguments it criticised the US for using in its own invasion and destruction of a much smaller and weaker country.

But the bulk of the blame can be safely placed on the door of the Yankeestanis who, with their idiotic and assinine occupation of Kossovo have forced the first violent change of borders in Europe since the Helsinki accords of the 70's stipulated that borders must be inviolate. Of course Kossovo was not a unique situation, Now they reap the whirlwind. And people, innocent people, are dying.

[Thunderhawk]

The Russian responce time is quite remarkable. So remarkable, that I question if they were using contingincy units and plans or wheather they were already positioned and waiting for Georgians to act. Im guessing they expected it to happen through their intellegence sources, but if so then they too would be cold blooded and devious for not warning the Ossetians or the international media.

[pikachu]

but if so then they too would be cold blooded and devious for not warning the Ossetians or the international media.

What in hell are you talking about? The Ossetians have been preparing for war for the last few months, and the Russian media was reporting on it non-stop. The only reason you don't seem to know about it is because your free-and-independent western media conveniently ignored it as irrelevant.

[linker]

this is one of the first reports about the conflict. a reporter said that this "looks like russian aircrafts on positions". do you believe him? i believe much more russian tv.

[MediaCritic]

The situation is directly analogous to Kossovo.

the situation is a fact somewhat similar to Kosovo, but it differs in a few key points. the central difference is that Kosovo was historically an ethnically Serbian territory, going thousands of years back. it was only in the late 20th century that due to the high birth rate of Albanian immigrants, the Albanian/Muslim percentage of the population significantly increased. Ossetia on the other hand was never a part of Georgia, except for some periods where it was forcefully made part of a Georgian complex of states like the Menshevik Georgian Democratic Republic in the 19th century, or the Georgian SSR in the 20th.

The ethnic cleansing aspect though is the same. just as KLA+the NATO managed to ethnically cleanse Kosovo of Serbs - they all fled to Serbia now - about the same result will probably be achieved by Saakashvili, with all Ossetians fleeing to North Ossetia in Russia.

The hypocricy of both the West and Russia is evident now as they have assumed positions directly opposite to what they had assumed in that conflict.

thats what it looks like if you just go by CNN or BBC news. its not the case in reality though. the positions are consistent. US/NATO position is to weaken Russia and ita allies, Russian position is to defend itself and its allies.

Whereas before the West disregarded national sovereignty in favor of human rights now it does the opposite when the sovereignty of one of its (putative) allies is threatened. Because Georgia DID in fact try to ethnically cleane the Ossetians.

that's correct.

Russia now uses exactly the same arguments it criticised the US for using in its own invasion and destruction of a much smaller and weaker country.

this is to a small extent correct, but the situation in Ossetia is quite different from Chechnya or Iraq. the exact differences though would require a lengthy explanation. maybe i'll have time to post that later.

[MediaCritic]

The Russian responce time is quite remarkable.

actually, it was quite slow. the 58th army and the 756th VVS brigade stationed near the border of Ossetia have had the explicit goal of defending Ossetia and assisting the peacekeepers in Tskhinvali in case of a Georgian aggression
for years. They just recently had maneuvers simulating that. the fact that they took over 12 hours to respond - giving the Georgian artillery time to largely destroy the city - indicates that either Medvedev/Putin were hesitant and wanted to get UN approval (party supported by the fact that Russia called an emergency SC council meeting at 4am) or simply that the army communications/deployment worked inefficiently (less likely, but still well possible).

So remarkable, that I question if they were using contingincy units and plans or wheather they were already positioned and waiting for Georgians to act. Im guessing they expected it to happen through their intellegence sources, but if so then they too would be cold blooded and devious for not warning the Ossetians or the international media.

obviously it was somewhat expected. Georgia already attacked South Ossetia once in 1991-92, and there have been constant small conflicts ever since. i think they simply didnt expect such a large-scale attack only 3 hours after Saakashvili declared his readiness for a ceasefire.

[Thunderhawk]

What in hell are you talking about? The Ossetians have been preparing for war for the last few months, and the Russian media was reporting on it non-stop.

Did not know this.

The only reason you don't seem to know about it is because your free-and-independent western media conveniently ignored it as irrelevant.

Seems to be the case.

All the more reason for me to once more read international sources (Im tired of Iraq/afghanistan related stories here and abroad).

[Maxim Litvinov]

Thanks, MediaCritic. Nice breakdown. Same breakdown from the Australian press, except we led with a story of how we were involved... because our PM saw Bush have 'harsh words' with Putin at the Olympic Beach Volleyball or something :/

So, apparently our PM no longer believes in national self-determination :/

[Donetsk]

I am from Ukraine and I would like to add that all the
Russian nationalists accept the situation as Greate Russia next step to renew it's super power.

Next target will be Ukraine... er ok, thats our own problem in fact, anyway for all readers - I want you to realize that russian nationalists(while talking about protecting civilians from evil georgians) feel themselves like fighting "evil" western world.


thats russian speaking forum of Sevastopol (Russia have rented it for Black Sea fleet)
http://forum.sevastopol.info/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=98160
you can check that thread with Google Translate

[Maxim Litvinov]

Strange thing is, Donetsk, if your username refers to your location then you are actually in a city with more Russians than Ukrainians and where Russian voices have been drowned out by oppressive policies from the Kyiv government.

There are actually many areas where the majority of the population would prefer to be in Russia than their own state, but instead they are stuck in tinpot anti-Russian puppet regimes like Ukraine or Georgia.

[Donetsk]

2 Maxim Litvinow
You have guessed I am from Donetsk.
And I am an "oppressed" russian-speaking guy.
Strange situation isn't it?

You know ...more strange thing about puppet regimes...I have a friend - he is a refugee from Abhkazia(1992)...Befor the war Abkhazians were the minority, after the war(backed by Russians) and 3/4 part of population as refugees it became pro-russian. I beleive after the Donbass "liberation" it will be the same situation( But I was born in Donetsk region and I am not pro-russian as they like to say in Putin propaganda

[Zbigniew Kissinger]

This unfortunate situation can be resolved if both parties become more reasonable in their negotiations with eahc other (Russia-Georgia).

The West needs to understand Russian sensitivities in this region particularly in the Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The later held a referendum on their status within Georgia and voted overwhelmingly in favor of independence and the wishes of the people should be respected. Irredentism is one of the main forces at the heart of this conflict.


The west should allow for Abkhazia and SO to determine their own future be it independence, more autonomy within Georgia, or absorption into Russia. Russia stood painfully by while Kosovo was ripped apart from Serbia proving that under the right circumstances the West will allow for secession.

With all that said Georgia proper must be supported by America and its allies and remain an independent fully functioning state. It must be brought into the Western bloc through accession into the EU and NATO.

If Russia has plans to subjugate all of Georgia and start restoring its former Empire they have another thing coming. Russian imperial expansion and ambitions must be nipped in the bud unequivocally. Russia has to learn its day in the sun is over and it must accept American hegemony in Georgia.

[stalker]

And how would you nip it in the bud??

[linker]

Georgian Security Council chief Alexander Lomaia said up to 50 Russian jets were roaming the skies Monday morning.
yeah, 50 russian jets. reporters are very happy

[Zbigniew Kissinger]

I would nip Russia's imperial ambitions in the bud through a combination of intelligent multi-lateral diplomacy (includes America, European Powers, Turkey) in conjunction with a little Brinksmanship.


ALready said to calm the Russian bear they need some much deserved Placation:

1) Recognize Russian Preponderance over Abkhazia and SO. ALlow both regions to either unite with Russia or become independent. Russis would be very pleased with this.

2)Put immense diplomatic pressure on Russia (behind closed doors, not in front of TV cameras at the UN!) . All powers would do this America, Europe, and TUrkey.

3) Give Russia a quid pro quo secretive back room deal: Cease fire immediately, respect georgian sovereignty and in return we (America) will not place our ABM defense system in Poland.



These two carrots (1 and 3) and one stick (2) should be enough to mollify Russia. I sympathize with Russia somewhat in this conflict. The dispute boils down to the Near Abroad and Russia reasserting itself as a Great Power in its backyard. The west must understand all this and realize Russia needs to be placated if this conflict is to be resolved in a way that keeps georgia sovereign and diffuses tension in teh two break away regions for good.


These two break away regions do not want to be part of georgia and the western media never gives alot of time to this fact.


AMerica has lost the moral high ground here ie "America: Russia you cannot invade georgia it is a sovereign country.

Russia: But you invaded Iraq! you are a hypocrite!

America: Russia georgia s territorial integrity must be respected!

Russia: Just like you respected Serbia's territorial integrity vis-a-vis kosovo!!!!!"


RUssia has a strong case to absorb or become teh suzerain power over these two breakaway region.