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By SpiderMonkey
#1605479
Back in 2005, I posted the following:

We are poking a sleeping bear with a stick here.

EU expansion is basically what we do these days instead of military imperialism. We are conquering countries with 'soft' instead of 'hard' power now.

Assimilating territories with large Russian minorities is a dangerous game, as essentially we are very slowly invading Russia (as many Russians see it). Putin has already been making noises about this - he said in a speech what a pity it was that some ethnic Russians had to live outside Russian borders. Thats the same kind of thing Hitler was saying about Czechoslovakia in the 1930s. Seriously, with a few more developments this could turn into a military confrontation.


http://www.politicsforum.org/forum/view ... tin+russia

Well, its NATO expansion and not EU expansion, and the flash point is Georgia not the Ukraine, but the basic situation I described seems to be coming to pass.

I don't think of myself a having unusual foresight - a lot of other people have seen this coming too.

We provoked them. Our mishandling of the Soviet collapse, the expansion of NATO and the EU, and the missile shield. But that doesn't matter now; Versailles may have provoked Germany but that doesn't excuse Nazism.

A resurgent, authoritarian Russia is testing its neighbours and finding them weak and isolated. Georgia is militarily fucked on its own, and between 8 years of US 'might makes right' style foreign policy and aversion to getting our hands dirty after Iraq means serious western intervention is unthinkable.

So if they can assert the 'rights' of ethnic Russians so brutally in Georgia, might then proceed to do that in other ex-Soviet states? We know they've an interest in the Ukraine and have shown a willingness to meddle there. This is probably why Ukraine is threatening to deny Russia access to its port in the Crimea; they know that they could well be next on Russia shopping list.

Europe is too dependent on Russian gas and George Bush is too busy looking for them dastardly terriers to do anything about this. Assuming the Russian government can withstand a Rather Stern Talking To, they have nothing to worry about.

The dishonest, aggressive, genocidal and acquisitive invasion of Iraq has made those of us with a moral conscience loathe war, mistrust our governments, and lean towards opposing all military action. Has the idiotic campaigns of the Bush administration left us so jaded and cynical that we always assume it isn't worth fighting? Have NATO leaders cried wolf so many times with regard to the latest big threat than we can no longer react appropriately to a genuine threat?

I surprise myself having these thoughts. When I write that Russia is a threat to its neighbours I feel that I sound like a neocon even though Russia is currently in the process of invading one of its neighbours with tanks. When I make comparisons between Russia and Nazi Germany I feel like I am the headline writer who suggested that Iraq could attack us in 45 minutes - but you must admit there are real historical parallels.

I am having a moment of paranoia? Am I turning into a neoconservative? What is going on?
User avatar
By Prometheus
#1605505
You've got to remember that the Russians invaded after Georgia tried to militarily reclaim that territory.
By stalker
#1605508
You sound like you have a case of sluggishly progressing schitzophrenia. I suggest you visit a Russian lunatic asylum to get cured of your delusions.
By SpiderMonkey
#1605510
Georgia has been in conflict there for years, and the Russian action was pulled off remarkably quickly which suggests a certain amount of foresight on their part.

Recall also that Germany annexed the Sudetenland ostensibly in response to Czech repression of the German-speaking population there.
User avatar
By Nets
#1605515
Just close your eyes, count to three, and chant

America started it....America started it....America started it....its America's fault....its America's fault....

You'll feel much better, I guarantee it. Its what the other leftists on the boards seem to be doing.
By stalker
#1605518
Alternatively Russia could have had intelligence that a major attack was up and got prepared in time to repulse Georgian aggressors.
By SpiderMonkey
#1605521
Frankly, America (and Europe) did kind of start it. We were the ones instigating pro-western revolutions in former Soviet republics. We were the ones expanding NATO and the EU eastwards. We led the Russian people into the arms of a strongman like Putin.

But that does not matter one bit now. Russia has taken these provocations and used them as a pretext for expansionism and reassertion of power over what were traditionally Russian client states.
By Grognonours
#1605523
Frankly, America (and Europe) did kind of start it.


Glad to see you took Nets advice. That didn't take so long. And yes, America is so terrible by trying to help those oppressed commies break away a few decades ago...
By SpiderMonkey
#1605527
Glad to see you took Nets advice. That didn't take so long. And yes, America is so terrible by trying to help those oppressed commies break away a few decades ago...


Read past the first line next time. I don't particularly want to play the blame game at this point. Everyone knows my problems with the West and its not worth me restating them, and they are not my main concern at the moment.

Russian tanks are currently smashing through one of their neighbours. I suggest we leave the history talk to the dinner parties.
By stalker
#1605530
Georgia is a criminal regime run by terrorist and war criminal Saakashvili. The civilized world should support Russia in its laudable endevours to rid the world of that menace.
By SpiderMonkey
#1605533
Poland was a highly authoritarian regime in 1939. By all means criticise the west and its allies, but don't let it blind you to a very real threat on the horizon.
User avatar
By Kiroff
#1605641
Right, more baseless Nazi references please!


This is called Godwin's law.
By Grognonours
#1605649
Read past the first line next time


I did. That's why I congratulated you on taking Nets advice.

I don't particularly want to play the blame game at this point


And yet as usual you did just that.
User avatar
By pikachu
#1605659
Saakashvili is Hitler reborn!!!
Who are those, the Georgian community in Russia?
By SpiderMonkey
#1605663
Quote:
Read past the first line next time


I did. That's why I congratulated you on taking Nets advice.

Quote:
I don't particularly want to play the blame game at this point


And yet as usual you did just that.


Stop trolling. I think my intentions here were quite clear.
User avatar
By Nets
#1605764
I can understand your NATO point, but I don't understand your EU point, SpiderMonkey.

How is expanding a loose confederation of states by democratic choice a provocation? All of these countries are enthusiastically joining the EU, which is much more of an economic than military arrangement.
By SpiderMonkey
#1605770
The EU was originally formed as essentially a soft-power equivalent of NATO, promoting market economies in Europe, and now there is talk of it taking on a military role (albeit subservient to that of NATO).

However, its all pretty much water under the bridge now. Russia's actions have gone beyond any reasonable response to the West and clearly demonstrate aggressive, expansionist tendencies. We were poking a sleeping bear with a stick, but now the bear is awake talking about the stick is redundant. We've got a bear to deal with.
By stalker
#1605795
The EU is a competitor to the Eurasian Economic Community. Ukraine joining it is unacceptable.

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