- 11 Aug 2008 15:08
#1605479
Back in 2005, I posted the following:
http://www.politicsforum.org/forum/view ... tin+russia
Well, its NATO expansion and not EU expansion, and the flash point is Georgia not the Ukraine, but the basic situation I described seems to be coming to pass.
I don't think of myself a having unusual foresight - a lot of other people have seen this coming too.
We provoked them. Our mishandling of the Soviet collapse, the expansion of NATO and the EU, and the missile shield. But that doesn't matter now; Versailles may have provoked Germany but that doesn't excuse Nazism.
A resurgent, authoritarian Russia is testing its neighbours and finding them weak and isolated. Georgia is militarily fucked on its own, and between 8 years of US 'might makes right' style foreign policy and aversion to getting our hands dirty after Iraq means serious western intervention is unthinkable.
So if they can assert the 'rights' of ethnic Russians so brutally in Georgia, might then proceed to do that in other ex-Soviet states? We know they've an interest in the Ukraine and have shown a willingness to meddle there. This is probably why Ukraine is threatening to deny Russia access to its port in the Crimea; they know that they could well be next on Russia shopping list.
Europe is too dependent on Russian gas and George Bush is too busy looking for them dastardly terriers to do anything about this. Assuming the Russian government can withstand a Rather Stern Talking To, they have nothing to worry about.
The dishonest, aggressive, genocidal and acquisitive invasion of Iraq has made those of us with a moral conscience loathe war, mistrust our governments, and lean towards opposing all military action. Has the idiotic campaigns of the Bush administration left us so jaded and cynical that we always assume it isn't worth fighting? Have NATO leaders cried wolf so many times with regard to the latest big threat than we can no longer react appropriately to a genuine threat?
I surprise myself having these thoughts. When I write that Russia is a threat to its neighbours I feel that I sound like a neocon even though Russia is currently in the process of invading one of its neighbours with tanks. When I make comparisons between Russia and Nazi Germany I feel like I am the headline writer who suggested that Iraq could attack us in 45 minutes - but you must admit there are real historical parallels.
I am having a moment of paranoia? Am I turning into a neoconservative? What is going on?
We are poking a sleeping bear with a stick here.
EU expansion is basically what we do these days instead of military imperialism. We are conquering countries with 'soft' instead of 'hard' power now.
Assimilating territories with large Russian minorities is a dangerous game, as essentially we are very slowly invading Russia (as many Russians see it). Putin has already been making noises about this - he said in a speech what a pity it was that some ethnic Russians had to live outside Russian borders. Thats the same kind of thing Hitler was saying about Czechoslovakia in the 1930s. Seriously, with a few more developments this could turn into a military confrontation.
http://www.politicsforum.org/forum/view ... tin+russia
Well, its NATO expansion and not EU expansion, and the flash point is Georgia not the Ukraine, but the basic situation I described seems to be coming to pass.
I don't think of myself a having unusual foresight - a lot of other people have seen this coming too.
We provoked them. Our mishandling of the Soviet collapse, the expansion of NATO and the EU, and the missile shield. But that doesn't matter now; Versailles may have provoked Germany but that doesn't excuse Nazism.
A resurgent, authoritarian Russia is testing its neighbours and finding them weak and isolated. Georgia is militarily fucked on its own, and between 8 years of US 'might makes right' style foreign policy and aversion to getting our hands dirty after Iraq means serious western intervention is unthinkable.
So if they can assert the 'rights' of ethnic Russians so brutally in Georgia, might then proceed to do that in other ex-Soviet states? We know they've an interest in the Ukraine and have shown a willingness to meddle there. This is probably why Ukraine is threatening to deny Russia access to its port in the Crimea; they know that they could well be next on Russia shopping list.
Europe is too dependent on Russian gas and George Bush is too busy looking for them dastardly terriers to do anything about this. Assuming the Russian government can withstand a Rather Stern Talking To, they have nothing to worry about.
The dishonest, aggressive, genocidal and acquisitive invasion of Iraq has made those of us with a moral conscience loathe war, mistrust our governments, and lean towards opposing all military action. Has the idiotic campaigns of the Bush administration left us so jaded and cynical that we always assume it isn't worth fighting? Have NATO leaders cried wolf so many times with regard to the latest big threat than we can no longer react appropriately to a genuine threat?
I surprise myself having these thoughts. When I write that Russia is a threat to its neighbours I feel that I sound like a neocon even though Russia is currently in the process of invading one of its neighbours with tanks. When I make comparisons between Russia and Nazi Germany I feel like I am the headline writer who suggested that Iraq could attack us in 45 minutes - but you must admit there are real historical parallels.
I am having a moment of paranoia? Am I turning into a neoconservative? What is going on?