JohnRawls wrote:@B0ycey @Potemkin @Igor Antunov
You are talking about the growth of China that happened before Corona nor did I deny that China is currently growing. The situation changed a lot though with Corona and now currently with the Evegrande situation.
Also you are pointing out that relatively China has been growing and pushing the economic influence of Asia along with other countries in the region to Asia basically which is true but has little relevance with the discussion that we are having.
I understand that I am not going to convince you that China growth is slowing down and having problems right now. This year on paper the growth will be there because of the Covid quarter difference but in general Q3 and Q4 data will be more important in my opinion. And what comes after that is a mystery for now. I wrote this before but Chinese growth has been slowing down significantly even by their own statistics and for its low nominal per capita PPP gdp that is small in comparison already the growth is basically moderate or small. In absolute per capita terms the West was growing 2-3 times faster. While china is adding 500 to gdp per capita most countries in the West are adding 1000-2000 and so on.
As I wrote the problems of China are going to catch up to it due to the general systemic problems from many factors. But previously I said that it would happen at some point in this decade and never really expected it to be basically now. Time will tell obviously but this is a warning sign with the news that are coming out of China and the behaviour of its high leadership. This is not only Taiwan related.
Jury is not out yet if its happening now. We will only be able to tell if the so called "middle income trap" is now or somewhere further in the decade.
Yes after Corona China and the developing world is growing even faster relatively compared to the west. And Evegrande is just another 'two week until collapse' china bear unicorn. After 2008 when this anti-china crusade kicked into high gear it was ghost cities, then it was the imaginary western firm manufacturing exodus to other countries (that never happened), then it was sanctions and tariffs (that made the US trade deficit worse and diversified china's trade with Europe), then it was a pandemic (that hit the US the hardest), then it was the three gorges dam buckling (obvious fake news psyop) then it was mass floods (that were supposed to displace hundreds of millions) now it's back to real estate and we're just now shifting in tandem to an energy 'crisis'. Boring.
And China building physical links with over 68 countries housing over 65% of global population is indeed a major factor in this discussion of how the Chinese see themselves and how much of an impact that will have on the global economy. Between 2014-2019 China invested $280 billion into 30 countries just for the belt and road initiative. That's already more than the marshal plan and they're just getting started.