[DudeWhoGetsIt]

I would love a considered opinion or two on this subject. I could post links, but either you've read about this or you can google it yourself. Needless to say, it is a strange phenomenon that is indicative of What? And will lead to What? These are my questions.

Is this a real estate bubble waiting to pop? Or can the chinese command control of the economy keep it from popping?

Is this the industrial equivalent of the chinese govt paying they're workers to break rocks? Are they just keeping them busy to keep them from rioting?

Is this some kind of meta-cry-for-help? Do we need to unleash the power of chinese industry in a world sorely lacking in this kind of dynamism and focus?

Is this some kind of grand scheme? Are there plans for how and with whom to fill these empty cities?

Look at some of these towns they've built: exact replicas of old english countryside towns, complete with red telephone booths and pubs and Angelican churches...but no one lives there. Are they planning to invite tourists one day? Or how about immigrants from england...sick of dealing with muslims they can move to china en masse and feel right at home, 10,000 pensioners retiring in China but they feel like they are in Blarneyschlockenshire.

What is going on here? Will this bubble collapse? Is this a serious problem? And if so, indicative of what?

Has the global industrial economy hit another wall? Can we no longer keep going on this way? Why the fuck don't we just tax the shit out of environmental degradation and pollution...and let people live happy lives growing at 1% per year? That's all we need to grow, assuming we get population expansion under control and even falling...right? If population falls slightly every year, due to voluntarily low birth rates...why should GDP have to grow...it could shrink at the same rate, no? Or if it grows at 1% while population falls...doesn't that mean really that we are creating wealth? And if we can do so in an environmentally sustainable way...haven't we acheived societal evolution? Or am I just shitfaced?

[Igor Antunov]

This is a tired topic.

List the ghost cities in question so we can talk about them. Maybe present each one with a map/location to save us some time in terms of geography and I can provide some background information/perspective on each one and broader ongoing developments.

[Bramlow]

Ghost cities aside, China has quite the property/investment bubble which might well pop in the next 2-3 years. I've talked about this before, so I won't labour the point.

No doubt when it happens, Igor will be here to conveniently erase the facts away.

[Igor Antunov]

Bramlow is starting to believe in his wishes coming true.

[AVT]

If the Europeans and Americans don't start buying China's produce again there is a chance of a property bust, but with China still growing at a very high % it is likely even with a pop it will still be insulated, if the economy continues to slow well that could be bad for everyone, particularly my country, Australia.

[unbalanced zealot]

The Chinese economy is likely to slow as it matures. Japan, then South Korea did the same thing.

China came off a very low base, but now where it is at, it would have to generate some pretty big numbers and consume a pretty big percentage of world resources to sustain near 10%.

Australia has been riding the Chinese growth bandwagon for at least 15 years now, and pissed away a good proportion of its gains during that time. Australia's gains on the back of high commodity prices seem to have just translated into irrational exuberance in the residential property sector and little else.

Any Chinese economic downturn/correction/recalibration is going to leave Australia's economy without a sugar daddy.

Just my take on things ...

[Igor Antunov]

Yeah but you're talking millions of years from now, in terms of Australian economic planning initiatives....which don't really exist but yeah, million of years.

[unbalanced zealot]

Yeah but you're talking millions of years from now, in terms of Australian economic planning initiatives....which don't really exist but yeah, million of years.

Australians.

Most Australian economic planning initiatives revolve around getting votes in marginal seats.

[stalker]

Half the Chinese population is still in the country. The eventual urbanization rate will likely by a Korean-like 80%. That's .3*1300 = 400mn people. Those ghost cities will be filled up with, and in the meantime it will avoid the slums typical of inferior and more dysfunctional Third World nations.

What is there to complain about?

[Andropov]

Ghost cities aside, China has quite the property/investment bubble which might well pop in the next 2-3 years. I've talked about this before, so I won't labour the point.

No doubt when it happens, Igor will be here to conveniently erase the facts away.

Western "analysts" have been talking about the Chinese bubble popping "in the next 2-3 years" for many decades now.

[Chill]

The Chinese economy is likely to slow as it matures. Japan, then South Korea did the same thing.

China came off a very low base, but now where it is at, it would have to generate some pretty big numbers and consume a pretty big percentage of world resources to sustain near 10%.

Australia has been riding the Chinese growth bandwagon for at least 15 years now, and pissed away a good proportion of its gains during that time. Australia's gains on the back of high commodity prices seem to have just translated into irrational exuberance in the residential property sector and little else.

Any Chinese economic downturn/correction/recalibration is going to leave Australia's economy without a sugar daddy.

Just my take on things ...

The size of the economy is essentially different. If China is as mature as Japan in economy, she will control everything...

[Igor Antunov]

It's far more difficult for china to develop to the same extent japan has, not because of lack of resources (japan has none) but because more people need more time to rise up. This means that long term planning is critical, fortunately china is blessed with such a regime, building cities and mass infrastructure years before they are needed, sowing the seeds for trade with africa and the americas, etc, instead of going the route of so many others and languishing for decades and being an underachiever (brazil, india, south africa, russia) despite having the tools necessary to achieve above and beyond most others.

These 'ghost' cities are a testament to the future success of the country. It shows the commitment to a level of foreplanning that is required to go forth and prosper.