[benpenguin]

Been checking my own posts from year ago and I have now went from very supportive to very disappointed with the Xi government. It seems that they had the right idea about how China should take its next step in the beginning, and then decided to completely fuck it up because of irrelevant reasons.

- Xi and his cabinet is helplessly inflexible and doesn't seem to understand the world from others perspective. Despite what everyone says I believe he is a man with strong morals - in the most conservative Chinese sense - that is, upholding Chinese nationalism and going great lengths to punish those that he deemed offensive to Chinese pride. The problem is that we need a savvy statesman, like Deng, right now - not a paragon of Chinese virtual.

- His inability to contain Communist infighting - there has always been a rivalry between the crown princes and the party school, but they had been able to keep it under the rug and speak with one voice. His cleansing of political opponents is now firing back at his face since he is pushing too far, and recent announcements and newspeak from party media is getting more and more paranoid. Some of it even smells like ideological witch hunt, others go back to stale self-praising. It is going completely backwards from what I saw a year ago where constructive criticisms were being tolerated or even encouraged at times.

- Serious mishandling of Hong Kong - he backed CY Leung to the Chief Executive position to displace the original candidate favored by local oligarchs and his party rivals. CY Leung then handled Hong Kong exactly like Xi - uncompromising to any dissent, setting off every possible political bomb and behaving like a spoiled fuckwit. His cabinet has trouble supporting him, while the opposition gained complete control over the disgruntled young. Many establishment players (With crown prince party backup) are even silently opposing him. Xi refuses to replace this counter-productive piece of shit because of the same reason to everything else: He will not compromise to dissent.

- Instead of trying to find a way to fix the trainwreck, Xi uses every available power to micromanage Hong Kong. Buying newspapers, imprisoning dissenters, demanding absolute loyalty. He over blew the independence movement in Hong Kong while party newspapers spared no effort in smearing the city. He made sure that Hong Kong and mainlanders will now hate each other so much that there is no going back. He treats Hong Kong like a misbehaving child, while completely missing the point that Hong Kong would have been an absolutely essential partner in his one belt one road project - if left alone.

- He is also spending lots of effort in "parenting" the morals of Chinese people, in the most conservative way possible. The media department is now not only censoring porn and political dissent, but also censoring divorce, fantasy, affairs, cleavage and 90% of what is produced by foreign countries, making sure that every piece of media produced in China is morally pure and therefore completely unwatchable - while what China desperately needs is soft power delivered by mass entertainment AND a way to divert public frustration from the economic disaster, which he created with his amateurish handling of the stock markets.

- Same case with South China sea. A year ago, I haven't been able to answer the question: Why would you piss off your SEA neighbors while trying to build a economical alliance? Now I know - its the same analysis. China claimed the massive wrath of sea with their "nine dotted line" many decades ago. While all his predecessors knew better than to push this ridiculous issue, Xi would believe it his patriotic duty and legacy to enforce it. Geopolitically it made completely no sense - Philippines and Vietnam would never have harassed our sea lanes or fell into the embrace of US/Japan completely if he didn't upset them over pieces of rocks.

With so much power Xi once consolidated, he could have done so much good. Instead he is now undoing decades of good work laid down by Deng - everything he does is pure brute force and no finesse. I cannot wait for his replacement to somebody with a cooler head...

[yiostheoy]

...

- He is also spending lots of effort in "parenting" the morals of Chinese people, in the most conservative way possible. The media department is now not only censoring porn and political dissent, but also censoring divorce, fantasy, affairs, cleavage and 90% of what is produced by foreign countries, making sure that every piece of media produced in China is morally pure and therefore completely unwatchable - while what China desperately needs is soft power delivered by mass entertainment AND a way to divert public frustration from the economic disaster, which he created with his amateurish handling of the stock markets.

- Same case with South China sea. A year ago, I haven't been able to answer the question: Why would you piss off your SEA neighbors while trying to build a economical alliance? Now I know - its the same analysis. China claimed the massive wrath of sea with their "nine dotted line" many decades ago. While all his predecessors knew better than to push this ridiculous issue, Xi would believe it his patriotic duty and legacy to enforce it. Geopolitically it made completely no sense - Philippines and Vietnam would never have harassed our sea lanes or fell into the embrace of US/Japan completely if he didn't upset them over pieces of rocks.

With so much power Xi once consolidated, he could have done so much good. Instead he is now undoing decades of good work laid down by Deng - everything he does is pure brute force and no finesse. I cannot wait for his replacement to somebody with a cooler head...

I would hate to see China become immoral and decadent like the USA, Japan, Netherlands, etc. So I applaud Pres/Party Chm Xi Jinping for his efforts and curbing its spread.

As for the South China Sea, well I think the name says it all. The USA should get OUT of the South China Sea. We (the USA) would not like it very much if Chinese frigates seamed around the Gulf Of Mexico or the Gulf of Alaska.

Xi has obviously tipped his hand that he intended to get Taiwan back sometime soon.

To do that he needs island air bases. Therefore he is building them. They will hold fuel and ammo for his squadrons of fighter jets and bombers. If he has to kick the USA out of the South China Sea he will need to refuel and resupply his vast air force.

Islands do not sink like aircraft carriers can. Of course, one well placed nuke can still blast an island base to hell.

To negotiate from a position of strength over Taiwan Xi will need to be well prepared for war and then either call Hillary's or Donald's bluff.

So everything makes perfect sense to me. Xi is to China what Putin is to Russia -- they just want to make their mother countries strong again.

[Igor Antunov]

everything he does is pure brute force and no finesse.

And at this point, that is absolute valid and workable.

The west has not done a single thing to undo Island building in the SCS for example, not directly and not indirectly.

For all the hoopla, Vietnam and the Philippines are still gleefully accepting Chinese trade and investment above and beyond that of any other contributor. Japan is pumping its exports into China, Chinese companies keep wooing, investing in and buying US and other western firms, and in turn they invest in China etc. Taiwan has not taken a single step to limit its economic reliance on the mainland. Similarly Hong Kong economic integration with Guangdong is still proceeding.

No real anti-Chinese coalition is forming, the silk road project is proceeding unabated. This so-called coordinated regional dissent only exists in western media.


Xi is a shark like Putin. He has smelled weakness in his rivals, and he is taking rapid advantage of that weakness, as you should. An arbitrary ruling in the Hague, in whichever direction it goes, has no material legitimacy or relevance to China's regional sphere of influence.

[benpenguin]

I would hate to see China become immoral and decadent like the USA, Japan, Netherlands, etc. So I applaud Pres/Party Chm Xi Jinping for his efforts and curbing its spread.

There is a difference between immoral and completely stale. This also shouldn't be a government focus at the first place.

As for the South China Sea, well I think the name says it all. The USA should get OUT of the South China Sea. We (the USA) would not like it very much if Chinese frigates seamed around the Gulf Of Mexico or the Gulf of Alaska.

He should have tried to win SEA countries under his wing and lock them in with trade agreements instead. Wrong move. Now USA has more reasons to be present.

Xi has obviously tipped his hand that he intended to get Taiwan back sometime soon.

Same with Hong Kong, wrong move. Taiwan is not anti-China, they are happy to be a semi-tributary state and it works best that way despite what they says. If China wants to impose their values and systems on the place, it's not going to be pretty.

So everything makes perfect sense to me. Xi is to China what Putin is to Russia -- they just want to make their mother countries strong again.

There is a difference to be strong vs being oppressive... Putin seems to be able to control his opposition a lot better than Xi (Though on the foreign policy side Xi's government is better despite the many fiasco)
Let's put it this way, he is making a lot more enemies and putting his nose into a lot of places than necessary, while I think his focus should be better spent elsewhere.

[unbalanced zealot]

Been checking my own posts from year ago and I have now went from very supportive to very disappointed with the Xi government. It seems that they had the right idea about how China should take its next step in the beginning, and then decided to completely fuck it up because of irrelevant reasons.

I can really see where you are coming from in your post ... I personally get the feeling that Xi is just trying to get China's reform process back under central control. He's found himself faced with a 'herding cats' scenario where his future vision for China is likely to be compromised by competing interests widely scattered around the country. But I think Xi is still essentially a nationalist but in a different mode to Deng. Deng's agenda was also compromised but predominantly from within the SC, with Chen Yun acting as a respected counter-balance to Deng's pro-reform agenda. However, Deng was working with more centralized power so he could call shots with more authority and be more statesman like in his position. Fast forward to the Hu Jintao era and his inclination to let each of the many Standing Committee etc. members do their own thing, generated a bit of an anything goes dynamic ... Zhou Yongkang being a personification of how that turned out.

So I think Xi in some ways has been trying to pull back from the freelancing of recent times that maybe got out of hand. Surely the Bo Xilai debacle must play on his mind, and he's perhaps wary of anyone building a profile and looking to work their own agenda. China's democratic centralism politics (unlike multi-party democracies which can completely replace its politicians at elections) relies a lot more on succession planning and no doubt with members of the current SC reaching retirement age in 2017 Xi will be looking to have the power at hand to install his own people so he can really work his own vision in the next 5 years period (and beyond).

So from an outsider's viewpoint I can see why he is so obsessed with accumulating central (inc. personal) control (including over the military/economic hubs) but I can understand your argument that he's taking it all a bit too far and getting sidetracked with non-core issues. The South China Sea thing I agree with you completely, and as someone who lives in South Korea I think China is asserting its regional hard power in the wrong places. North Korea is not only disrespecting China, it's impeding the economic development of the whole north east, as well as giving the US every reason to have a military presence in the region. I agree fully that the best way for China to push them back to their side of the Pacific is to decrease their relevance here starting with defense relationships.

created with his amateurish handling of the stock markets.

Agreed. That looked really bad and it doesn't look like its going to be any better if/when MSCI includes Chinese A-shares.

Same with Hong Kong, wrong move. Taiwan is not anti-China, they are happy to be a semi-tributary state and it works best that way despite what they says. If China wants to impose their values and systems on the place, it's not going to be pretty.

Here I definitely agree. The generations who were preoccupied with 20th century history between China/Taiwan are receding. China is better off just letting Taiwan play its own game, arguably with HK as well. China has so much economic leverage over both surely the astute game-plan would be to just work the carrot-stick leverage it has in that sphere.

[yiostheoy]

There is a difference between immoral and completely stale. This also shouldn't be a government focus at the first place.


He should have tried to win SEA countries under his wing and lock them in with trade agreements instead. Wrong move. Now USA has more reasons to be present.


Same with Hong Kong, wrong move. Taiwan is not anti-China, they are happy to be a semi-tributary state and it works best that way despite what they says. If China wants to impose their values and systems on the place, it's not going to be pretty.


There is a difference to be strong vs being oppressive... Putin seems to be able to control his opposition a lot better than Xi (Though on the foreign policy side Xi's government is better despite the many fiasco)
Let's put it this way, he is making a lot more enemies and putting his nose into a lot of places than necessary, while I think his focus should be better spent elsewhere.

Everything you say about Xi is also true of Putin.

You must want a more politically correct strong man.

However since both Xi and Putin are coming from a position of strength in the region, they are unlikely to patronize weaker states.

At first I thought you were a spy from Beijing trying to sound out the Western view of Xi.

Now I think you are a dangerous dissident and if Mother China finds out about your statements then you will be donating your organs soon.

Personally I think Xi is doing a pretty good job. And I am not even a Communist -- although the American far right extreme has been known to slander me as such.

Maybe you should try emigrating OUT OF China and find someplace else where you get along.

Don't go to Taiwan though, for obvious reasons. That would only be a short term solution.

South Korea or Singapore might be great for you.

[benpenguin]

Wow, it's like talking to Good O Xi himself. Didn't it occur to you that I agree with a lot of his reforms, but just didn't like the way they are executed? My motive is not political correctness, my motive is to not waste resources fighting unnecessary battles, and to make surrounding countries able to work for China. But the nationalist type would always choose the most violent path possible, aint it?

That would land me a ticket for the gulag if it were up to you?

If that's your standard, I assure you, you will be have to lock up 30% of the Chinese population and fresh human organs will become a commodity - very communist if you think about it

[Potemkin]

If that's your standard, I assure you, you will be have to lock up at least 30% of the Chinese population and fresh human organs will become a commodity - very communist if you think about it

Actually, it's very capitalist if you think about it - the USA locks up a larger percentage of its population than China does, and under capitalism everything becomes a commodity to be bought or sold, including our politicians.

[benpenguin]

Well I'm starting to confuse the two. Living in a state capitalist country does that to you

[benpenguin]

So from an outsider's viewpoint I can see why he is so obsessed with accumulating central (inc. personal) control (including over the military/economic hubs) but I can understand your argument that he's taking it all a bit too far and getting sidetracked with non-core issues. The South China Sea thing I agree with you completely, and as someone who lives in South Korea I think China is asserting its regional hard power in the wrong places. North Korea is not only disrespecting China, it's impeding the economic development of the whole north east, as well as giving the US every reason to have a military presence in the region. I agree fully that the best way for China to push them back to their side of the Pacific is to decrease their relevance here starting with defense relationships.
Here I definitely agree. The generations who were preoccupied with 20th century history between China/Taiwan are receding. China is better off just letting Taiwan play its own game, arguably with HK as well. China has so much economic leverage over both surely the astute game-plan would be to just work the carrot-stick leverage it has in that sphere.

Although I must say he is at least handling relationships with S Korea quite well Can't say the same for many else...

[unbalanced zealot]

South Korea or Singapore might be great for you.

Singapore is very expensive (even more so than Shenzhen etc.) and SK has very strict immigration laws so there is not a strong Chinese presence here. Sensibly Chinese can not invest in residential property here (except Jeju island). So unlike Europe it's not an easy proposition to just relocate between countries, unless you are an expat working within a transnational company.

Although I must say he is at least handling relationships with S Korea quite well Can't say the same for many else...

That's true. Park GH and Xi seem to get along quite well. Fun fact ... Zhang Dejiang (Chinese #3 leader) is a fluent Korean speaker.

[yiostheoy]

Wow, it's like talking to Good O Xi himself. Didn't it occur to you that I agree with a lot of his reforms, but just didn't like the way they are executed? My motive is not political correctness, my motive is to not waste resources fighting unnecessary battles, and to make surrounding countries able to work for China. But the nationalist type would always choose the most violent path possible, aint it?

That would land me a ticket for the gulag if it were up to you?

If that's your standard, I assure you, you will be have to lock up 30% of the Chinese population and fresh human organs will become a commodity - very communist if you think about it

I myself have nothing against free speech as long as it is true and not slander.

Xi on the other hand probably has different views, and with him being the #2 or #2 most powerful person in the world he might not like your criticism. He may actually be the #1 or #2 most powerful person de facto because BHO cannot really do much alone, whereas Xi and Putin can do whatever each wants without question.

[Drlee]

Good Lord. China is not going to retake Taiwan. The idea is preposterous. Here are the three reasons that first come to mind.

1. A war with the US, or even US sanctions would destroy China's economy. Just the loss of foreign exchange held in US instruments would be devastating. And, of course, the EU would be quick to jump on the band wagon.

2. China does not have the expeditionary forces to take Taiwan. It is one thing to have a big army, it is quite another to tote it off somewhere and wage war.... Especially if US submarines are blocking their path.... It is funny how everyone focuses on Aircraft Carriers and ignores Submarines. Though China has coastal defense subs they are not a major threat to US fast attack subs. Nor are they intended to be.

China's air force is questionable. They have less than 1500 fighters and most of them are far from first rate. Over 700 of their version of the Mig 21's for example. Plainly said, China may lack the strength to take Taiwan against determined opposition. Maybe someday but not soon. China could certainly make a war expensive but it will be quite some time before they could achieve air superiority over Taiwan not to mention the Spratleys.

3. The best reason of all. There was a time when Taiwan's capitalist government was an impediment to China's ambitions with regard to its hybrid capitalist/communist system. Now I believe that there are few people who consider China anything but communist in name only. Tell me what China gains from acquiring Taiwan and why it is worth all of the pain it must endure to try, with no guarantee of success, to get it.

4. Well. OK. 4 reasons. Can China risk nuclear war for a pittance? Why do that. And then have to wear the 'dangerous' label for a long time. China is doing just fine. It is growing rapidly and developing its interior markets. Why risk blowing that all to hell over nothing. Some day. Not anytime soon.

[yiostheoy]

Good Lord. China is not going to retake Taiwan. The idea is preposterous. Here are the three reasons that first come to mind.

1. A war with the US, or even US sanctions would destroy China's economy. Just the loss of foreign exchange held in US instruments would be devastating. And, of course, the EU would be quick to jump on the band wagon.

2. China does not have the expeditionary forces to take Taiwan. It is one thing to have a big army, it is quite another to tote it off somewhere and wage war.... Especially if US submarines are blocking their path.... It is funny how everyone focuses on Aircraft Carriers and ignores Submarines. Though China has coastal defense subs they are not a major threat to US fast attack subs. Nor are they intended to be.

China's air force is questionable. They have less than 1500 fighters and most of them are far from first rate. Over 700 of their version of the Mig 21's for example. Plainly said, China may lack the strength to take Taiwan against determined opposition. Maybe someday but not soon. China could certainly make a war expensive but it will be quite some time before they could achieve air superiority over Taiwan not to mention the Spratleys.

3. The best reason of all. There was a time when Taiwan's capitalist government was an impediment to China's ambitions with regard to its hybrid capitalist/communist system. Now I believe that there are few people who consider China anything but communist in name only. Tell me what China gains from acquiring Taiwan and why it is worth all of the pain it must endure to try, with no guarantee of success, to get it.

4. Well. OK. 4 reasons. Can China risk nuclear war for a pittance? Why do that. And then have to wear the 'dangerous' label for a long time. China is doing just fine. It is growing rapidly and developing its interior markets. Why risk blowing that all to hell over nothing. Some day. Not anytime soon.

You have several choices when the USA and China final go to war.

1 - crawl back under your rock.

2 - crawl back into your rat hole.

3 - stick you head back into the sand.

Anyone who cannot see that war is coming is simply either blind or an extreme simpleton.

[Drlee]

Did you join simply to troll and insult the adults?

How about developing an argument. Are you able to do that? They used to teach it in third grade. At least in the US they did. We are permitted to argue. Encouraged to as a matter of fact. We do not shoot people for it.

[yiostheoy]

Did you join simply to troll and insult the adults?

How about developing an argument. Are you able to do that? They used to teach it in third grade. At least in the US they did. We are permitted to argue. Encouraged to as a matter of fact. We do not shoot people for it.

If you cannot see war coming between the USA and China then you are like the millions who could not see war coming with Adolf. It is not an uncommon affliction. It even has a name: "denial".

It is a coping mechanism of the weak. They must have sunshine blown at them like smoke all the time.

[benpenguin]

Sorry I cannot entertain the idea that we will go to war with US either. US and China has went back to their "dysfunctional couple" routine which I think is a healthy balance. They are keeping each other in check in SCS, cooperating a little in mid-east/africa, while doing a bit of back and forth with Russia.
Since Xi's US visit major US newspapers dialed back the usual outright hostility against China, and allows Chinese elements to appear in Hollywood movies even.
Not a bad position I think.

[yiostheoy]

Sorry I cannot entertain the idea that we will go to war with US either. US and China has went back to their "dysfunctional couple" routine which I think is a healthy balance. They are keeping each other in check in SCS, cooperating a little in mid-east/africa, while doing a bit of back and forth with Russia.
Since Xi's US visit major US newspapers dialed back the usual outright hostility against China, and allows Chinese elements to appear in Hollywood movies even.
Not a bad position I think.

Xi has no reason to build islands for airstrips unless he plans to go to war.

It is a waste of the people's money otherwise.

The Central Committee obviously agrees and knows about it.

After they send out their wave of fighter-bomber jets they will need to recover and refuel them so they can at least get back home.

When war finally comes it will be over Taiwan. China will have run out of patience.

[unbalanced zealot]

"dysfunctional couple" is probably an apt term ... and I don't think the relationship is anything like that between the US/Russia which is deeply toxic on many fronts. China has been retreating from US Treasuries recently but they still have massive holdings of US debt and at this point in time the US/China economic relationship is almost symbiotic. Both are no doubt quite aware that any military confrontation is going to send shock waves through their economies that could actually/possibly send either/both into terminal decline. Thus, I'm pretty sure they will find a way to avoid any kind of military conflict between them.

Will have to see how Clinton/Trump position themselves (after November) in regards to China. Obama has a reputation for setting a red line and then when it gets crossed he responds with harsh rhetoric. Perhaps Xi is just making the most of the Obama era when the only actual backlash from the US for anything it does will likely be words and maybe some finger wagging.

Re Taiwan

Good Lord. China is not going to retake Taiwan.

I basically agree with Dr Lee's points (see above). I was in Taipei earlier this year and I know quite a few Taiwanese well. While talking (and drinking) with them I never heard any animosity towards the PRC. The new president, Tsai Ing-wen and her party, are not significantly hostile to the PRC and won't be pushing for a formal declaration of independence (as I understand things). Taiwan isn't antagonising mainland China (unlike North Korea of late). There's a term in boxing matchmaking parlance called 'risk-reward' in that there is usually little to be gained in taking a big risk for little reward ... China invading Taiwan would be a huge risk for limited reward IMO.

[benpenguin]

North Korea is not only disrespecting China, it's impeding the economic development of the whole north east, as well as giving the US every reason to have a military presence in the region. I agree fully that the best way for China to push them back to their side of the Pacific is to decrease their relevance here starting with defense relationships.

Missed that point - I agree...But let's face it, they were an essential partner during the cold wars because if they fell, South Korea would have been be a staging ground for all sort of shenanigans (CIA black ops or even land invasions) against China.
This age however, SK and China are almost besties - if NK can go the Deng route, we are gonna have a large piece of undeveloped land in the middle of Korea, Japan, China and Russia, soon to be joined by high speed rails and infrastructure that China is itching to build. That's a capitalist wet dream
But despite all their nonsense our bonds with NK won't be broken that easily. For China it is an issue of political correctness and Xi the paragon of virtue is definitely not going to cross that line.