[B0ycey]

Both.

If China bailouts Evergrande, then they have the resources to pay back any investors. If they don't, then Evergrande goes bust and the investors lose out.

The Chinese housing market issue is actually separate to Evergrande though. The Chinese have been manipulating the market in order for the price of homes to remain stable for a while now given investment in property has dried up. Like property and anything really, something is only worth as much as someone else is willing to pay for it. So they might keep this system in place. Or they might let it crash. But if they let it crash, people might default on mortgage payments which might effect Chinese banks very much like in 2008. So my instinct is they will retain manipulating the market. As long as those with property believe someone will come along and pay the price or more for it, the bubble can't burst.

[B0ycey]

No banker that didn't violate the law should be jailed.

How about those that do?

[MadMonk]

No banker that didn't violate the law should be jailed.

China will publicly execute/jail a few scapegoats who happen to be disloyal to the regime.

"Wall Street bankers make it their daily business to figure out ways to abide by the letter of the law while violating its spirit."

Preet Bharara, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York


Yep, they stayed within the margins while defrauding investors left and right. Selling shit and calling it gold. Even getting the supposedly independent rating agencies to play along and shovel the shit.

"The system allows a bond issuer to pay the ratings agencies for initial and ongoing ratings of a security. The credit ratings agencies tend to overrate the credibility of the debtors so as to not lose established clients. This, in turn, can lead to a biased analysis and faulty ratings."

The bankers were not put in jail. The banks were later forced to settle huge fines for their misconduct and to keep it from the public eye.

"In November 2013, as part of a deal that kept Wagner’s complaint from becoming public—and the specifics of Fleischmann’s revelations from being widely disseminated—JPMorgan Chase agreed to a $13 billion settlement with various federal and state agencies, then the largest of its kind."

"The Justice Department reached agreements with other Wall Street banks, among them Citigroup and Bank of America, using a similar playbook: Threaten public disclosure of behavior that looks criminal and then, in exchange for keeping it sealed, extract a huge financial settlement. No one individual, or group of individuals, is held accountable. No predawn raids of Park Avenue apartments are made. No one gets arrested. No one gets publicly shamed."

Another day, another dollar and another sucker to get fucked.

How Wall Street’s Bankers Stayed Out of Jail

The Indisputable Role of Credit Ratings Agencies in the 2008 Collapse, and Why Nothing Has Changed

[Igor Antunov]

@B0ycey @Potemkin @Igor Antunov

You are talking about the growth of China that happened before Corona nor did I deny that China is currently growing. The situation changed a lot though with Corona and now currently with the Evegrande situation.

Also you are pointing out that relatively China has been growing and pushing the economic influence of Asia along with other countries in the region to Asia basically which is true but has little relevance with the discussion that we are having.

I understand that I am not going to convince you that China growth is slowing down and having problems right now. This year on paper the growth will be there because of the Covid quarter difference but in general Q3 and Q4 data will be more important in my opinion. And what comes after that is a mystery for now. I wrote this before but Chinese growth has been slowing down significantly even by their own statistics and for its low nominal per capita PPP gdp that is small in comparison already the growth is basically moderate or small. In absolute per capita terms the West was growing 2-3 times faster. While china is adding 500 to gdp per capita most countries in the West are adding 1000-2000 and so on.

As I wrote the problems of China are going to catch up to it due to the general systemic problems from many factors. But previously I said that it would happen at some point in this decade and never really expected it to be basically now. Time will tell obviously but this is a warning sign with the news that are coming out of China and the behaviour of its high leadership. This is not only Taiwan related.

Jury is not out yet if its happening now. We will only be able to tell if the so called "middle income trap" is now or somewhere further in the decade.

Yes after Corona China and the developing world is growing even faster relatively compared to the west. And Evegrande is just another 'two week until collapse' china bear unicorn. After 2008 when this anti-china crusade kicked into high gear it was ghost cities, then it was the imaginary western firm manufacturing exodus to other countries (that never happened), then it was sanctions and tariffs (that made the US trade deficit worse and diversified china's trade with Europe), then it was a pandemic (that hit the US the hardest), then it was the three gorges dam buckling (obvious fake news psyop) then it was mass floods (that were supposed to displace hundreds of millions) now it's back to real estate and we're just now shifting in tandem to an energy 'crisis'. Boring.

And China building physical links with over 68 countries housing over 65% of global population is indeed a major factor in this discussion of how the Chinese see themselves and how much of an impact that will have on the global economy. Between 2014-2019 China invested $280 billion into 30 countries just for the belt and road initiative. That's already more than the marshal plan and they're just getting started.

[Wellsy]

Interesting take on the characterization of Chinas infrastructure projects in Africa.

Basically says that the idea of China seeking to trap countries in Debt isn’t that credible. Although not assuming benevolence on Chinas part.

It in fact raises a concern that China lack vision and cohesion on the belt and road initiative. That it has lost any meaning and is left vague and that it replicates a domestic problem across the world.

[Rugoz]

https://youtu.be/7gwgcIfzttA
Interesting take on the characterization of Chinas infrastructure projects in Africa.

Basically says that the idea of China seeking to trap countries in Debt isn’t that credible. Although not assuming benevolence on Chinas part.

It in fact raises a concern that China lack vision and cohesion on the belt and road initiative. That it has lost any meaning and is left vague and that it replicates a domestic problem across the world.

There's a really simple question you can ask. Are Chinese companies building the stuff? If yes, it's about propping up China's bloated construction sector with excess savings and gaining some influence abroad in the process. It's not real development aid.

[Fasces]

What is "real" development aid? One Frenchman owns 20 of west Africa's largest ports.

We hold China to standards we do not hold ourselves, and use this to justify stasis and hatred.

[Wellsy]

There's a really simple question you can ask. Are Chinese companies building the stuff? If yes, it's about propping up China's bloated construction sector with excess savings and gaining some influence abroad in the process. It's not real development aid.

I can agree with that sentiment/characterization. Neither benevolent or malevolent, just self serving, just as those who take the loans and such are seeking gains themselves and aren’t merely suckers.

And I think @Fasces point about not considering aid does point out that a lot of loans aren’t really aid. When I think of aid I think primarily of solidarity where one offers support on another's terms. And many loans aren’t all that charitable with the terms and conditions of them. Although China’s loans are more accessible and with less strings attached than some. But i doubt any of it comes from a benevolence and charity just as me seeking a loan isn’t a matter of simply getting money with little to no commitment of paying it back.

[AFAIK]

The Chinese gov't is willing to forgive loans in exchange for political favours.

I agree that it's not doing anything a dozen other countries have done before.

[MadMonk]

The Chinese gov't is willing to forgive loans in exchange for political favours.

I agree that it's not doing anything a dozen other countries have done before.

Considering what most powerful countries and empires were doing pre-1945, that is not really comforting.

No one does anything if it doesn't benefit themselves in some way. China like the US many decades ago might see a chance of improving their soft power influence and world standing by seeming like the benevolent superpower, to some degree.

[Igor Antunov]

The Chinese gov't is willing to forgive loans in exchange for political favours.

I agree that it's not doing anything a dozen other countries have done before.

Wrong. China doesn't care about politics abroad outside of sensitive internal issues such as Hong Kong and Taiwan. This is why it has been so successful in places like Africa-these countries don't interfere in Chinese politics. It forgives loans in order to keep things ticking along and to keep the raw resources flowing to its industries.

In short it seeks material favors and raw resource exports are as basic material as it gets.

When little Lithuania decided to directly interfere in Chinese internal affairs regarding Taiwan, it was economically smacked down like the little American bitch it is. Good riddance.

[Patrickov]

Wrong. China doesn't care about politics abroad outside of sensitive internal issues such as Hong Kong and Taiwan.

It ceases to be an internal issue when Taiwan is de facto independent and both the people of Taiwan and Hong Kong want to get rid of China.

In fact, I start to think that "internal" and "external" are just excuses for oppressive rogue nations like China to abuse their so-called "power".

[AFAIK]

Wrong

Tell that to the Uighurs who got deported from Cambodia to China in violation of the UN refugee convention that Cambodia has signed. Guess how many loans were forgiven the next day out of sheer coincidence.

Remember when China generously donated a parliament building to the African Union? It came preloaded mics and other tracking equipment that made daily contact with Beijing.

[Igor Antunov]

It ceases to be an internal issue when Taiwan is de facto independent and both the people of Taiwan and Hong Kong want to get rid of China.

In fact, I start to think that "internal" and "external" are just excuses for oppressive rogue nations like China to abuse their so-called "power".

Except it's not, it's merely autonomous. It can't do anything a real country can do and if it tries it will be reminded of that. How often does this happen to independent countries?

https://apnews.com/article/religion-chi ... d6c6566c8c

And the vast majority in Hong Kong want to be in China. Only 70,000 applied for Britains visa lol. That's 7.5 million that didn't.

Tell that to the Uighurs who got deported from Cambodia to China in violation of the UN refugee convention that Cambodia has signed. Guess how many loans were forgiven the next day out of sheer coincidence.

Harboring anti-chinese terrorists is indeed interference in internal affairs. Good to see Cambodia stopped doing that.

Remember when China generously donated a parliament building to the African Union? It came preloaded mics and other tracking equipment that made daily contact with Beijing.

Fake news.

[Patrickov]

Except it's not, it's merely autonomous. It can't do anything a real country can do and if it tries it will be reminded of that.

Wars are inevitable because of shithole thoughtslike the above.

How often does this happen to independent countries?

Ask Ukraine.

https://apnews.com/article/religion-china-caribbean-taiwan-nicaragua-b6fd5f0a5b13d02393d583d6c6566c8c

And the vast majority in Hong Kong want to be in China. Only 70,000 applied for Britains visa lol. That's 7.5 million that didn't.

Not all can afford to go in one go. With tge recent development more will go, but more importantly some will wait for time of liberation and revenge.

Harboring anti-chinese terrorists is indeed interference in internal affairs. Good to see Cambodia stopped doing that.

Cambodia is China's puppet.

[AFAIK]

Harboring anti-chinese terrorists is indeed interference in internal affairs. Good to see Cambodia stopped doing that.

They weren't extradited after a court heard their case. They were deported by the gov't. Pretend that this happened to Julian Assange is you're struggling to comprehend the situation.

[Igor Antunov]

They weren't extradited after a court heard their case. They were deported by the gov't. Pretend that this happened to Julian Assange is you're struggling to comprehend the situation.

Julian assange is not a potential militant religious extremist, clearly such cases see special actions, see French seuizure of property and extralegal US abductions of muslim suspects across Europe.

[Wellsy]

Former Aussie PM states a need to work with China in being integrated into the global order and that Australias fear mongering about China is unnecessarily antagonistic.

[Wellsy]

Kevin Rudd suggests a kind of managed strategic competition between the US and China with the hopes that some clarity of where lines are drawn in the sand for both sides will help accidentally escalating into a tit for tat conflict while encouraging the competition between the systems.
The hope being that war might be better avoided with some clearer terms between China and the US in much the same way that the USSR and the US were able to avoid nuclear war through diplomacy and clear communication while being entirely opposed to one another.

The above is interesting in putting some thoughts on the position of Xi Jingping and the possibility of a weaker mandate within the politburo and thoughts on how China relates to Russia amidst the Ukraine invasion.