- 14 Jul 2021 11:56
#15180930
I'll say it again:
"Here is my 2 cents, and it's a guess, but a good one.
China has hit the wall. It's a damn shame, but inevitable. Their social contract with their people is a common one when a poor country gets authoritarian government. Russia did much the same, the government says we will make your lives better.
They were able to keep that promise, partly through the stupidity of American (and other leaders). That has slowed down, and that's just the first part of the tale of woe. The way most Chinese invest is real estate. The government deliberately created a investment bubble, and now they are trapped inside it. So they keep pouring massive amounts of money in, with zero expectation of it doing much good. It used to, their brilliant maglev trains are good example. But an economist would tell you it needs to stop, but the government is far too afraid of the political consequences of obliterating the investment income most Chinese have.
Then there is their other problems. They have severe water problems. That does have an easy solution, but it would be highly unpopular. "If you want to change behavior, change the price."
China is between a rock and hard place of it's own doing. They need to make the transition to being a mature economy, but they are terrified the government will collapse if they do. They are in a race against time, and losing."
There is an old Go proverb, "Rich men don't pick fights."
Countries that are secure don't need to keep a boot on the necks of their people... The big fear among China's leaders is another collapse into chaos and 'warlordism'. They have good reason to worry. We're in an era of rapid change, and that is a severe challenge to all of the governments. Those that are quicker to adapt have a better chance to handle it better. One of the few agile governments out there is Iceland, run mostly by women.
"Here is my 2 cents, and it's a guess, but a good one.
China has hit the wall. It's a damn shame, but inevitable. Their social contract with their people is a common one when a poor country gets authoritarian government. Russia did much the same, the government says we will make your lives better.
They were able to keep that promise, partly through the stupidity of American (and other leaders). That has slowed down, and that's just the first part of the tale of woe. The way most Chinese invest is real estate. The government deliberately created a investment bubble, and now they are trapped inside it. So they keep pouring massive amounts of money in, with zero expectation of it doing much good. It used to, their brilliant maglev trains are good example. But an economist would tell you it needs to stop, but the government is far too afraid of the political consequences of obliterating the investment income most Chinese have.
Then there is their other problems. They have severe water problems. That does have an easy solution, but it would be highly unpopular. "If you want to change behavior, change the price."
China is between a rock and hard place of it's own doing. They need to make the transition to being a mature economy, but they are terrified the government will collapse if they do. They are in a race against time, and losing."
There is an old Go proverb, "Rich men don't pick fights."
Countries that are secure don't need to keep a boot on the necks of their people... The big fear among China's leaders is another collapse into chaos and 'warlordism'. They have good reason to worry. We're in an era of rapid change, and that is a severe challenge to all of the governments. Those that are quicker to adapt have a better chance to handle it better. One of the few agile governments out there is Iceland, run mostly by women.
Facts have a well known liberal bias