[Proctor]

Beijing keeps grip on HK
Beijing will not allow full democracy in Hong Kong in 2007 despite growing demands in the territory for universal suffrage and a constitution that had left open such a possibility, Hong Kong newspapers report.
Consultations between Hong Kong and Beijing on election reforms are just a show, and Beijing has ruled out direct elections for the next chief executive in 2007, the South China Morning Post said, quoting a Hong Kong source close to China's government.

So, if China doesn't have universal suffrage, what does it have? And does anyone have any opinions or predictions on Hong Kong's future?

[Andrew]

China is a pretty intransigent nation so I doubt that Hong Kong will obtain any freedom anytime soon, let alone in the future. If it is unwilling to ever grant Taiwan independance, then I doubt that it will be willing to let go of Hong Kong. However, capitalism in Hong Kong won't change and it will be business as usual, especially considering that China is moving into a more liberated market. In terms of democracy, such a movement seems impossible. It probably had such a chance under British rule, but the Chinese Government is a stubborn one.

According to the CIA Website, it says that China's universal suffrage is 18 years old, which for me makes no sense. For Hong Kong it quotes;

direct election 18 years of age; universal for permanent residents living in the territory of Hong Kong for the past seven years; indirect election limited to about 100,000 members of functional constituencies and an 800-member election committee drawn from broad regional groupings, municipal organizations, and central government bodies

.

[unbalanced zealot]

To grant H.K. that kind of status, Beijing would be making a
huge step that I don't think it's prepared to do at this point in
time. You're talking about the precedent for a broader Federalist
system of government, and that's a huge step. Then the CCP
would be under pressure to apply this further to Tibet, the North-West
even the booming East Coast.

Also, this is dangerous from the point of view of the
CCP. The last thing the S.C. leaders need are various
uncontrollable high profile political players to challenge
them from H.K. Their main HK man now is Li Ka-Shing
and he's in their boat, but if someone like him was
hostile to Beijing and based in a highly democratic
H.K. there would be all kinds of head-fucks for them
in that.

'For them' in the eyes of the CCP, that means the broad
population beyond the yuppie enclaves, as well as the
CCP players themselves.

The CCP despite what the current scenario in China projects,
is still theoretically the vanguard for the vast non-urban demographic
& low paid urban-workers.

A semi-democratic autonomous internationally connected
financially independent Guangdong province probably does
not fit in with the broader agenda the CCP leadership has in its
mind for China.

[glinert]

Does anyone think that if Hong Kong really really makes move for independence, Chinese will move tanks down street to put Hong Kong down.

[Yeddi]

So, if China doesn't have universal suffrage, what does it have?

Just guessing, but you probably have to be a member of the Communist Party to vote.

[vlad5017]

Hi~ i'm from Hong Kong actually. So here's my opinion. since 1997, nothing good actually happened in HK. NOT because it reunited with China but because we have a stupid HK government (HK is under the policy of one country two systems so it can basically decide everything they want, apart from electing their own leader or in military/foreign affairs). So the economic recession, chicken flu and recently the SARS have devastated the HK economy, no one is happy about it especially the middle class which made up pretty much most of the population. Unemployments and many other social issues... plus the fact that the government did not do anything to help the economy just enraged the people even more. So, for once, we HK people actually cares about politics. and please don't think those democratic parties represent all the voices of HK people. They are way too extreme. HK people are not against the mainland Central government, they are against and unsatisfied about the HK government. What most people need now is a way to rebuild the economy. Once the economy is better and most people have a job, not that many people will care about politics or freedom.

So here's my little prediction of HK's future. once we have a new chief executive and if he/she can fix the economy, the problem is solved. If this "gaining democracy" issue still continue on, I still don't think the Central government will do anything harsh on HK because Taiwan always use HK as an example of "this is what will happen if we reunite with China", so the central government will not really oppressed the HK people because that reduces the chance of Taiwan runiting with them.

[Proctor]

Great. I don't think we've ever had someone who's actually from Hong Kong here before.

HK people are not against the mainland Central government, they are against and unsatisfied about the HK government

You mention that this is largely because "HK is under the policy of one country two systems so it can basically decide everything they want". If the much publicised democracy movements do not have major support, how do general Hong Kong people want to reform the system?

[John Maynard Keynes]

Hi~ i'm from Hong Kong actually. So here's my opinion. since 1997, nothing good actually happened in HK. NOT because it reunited with China but because we have a stupid HK government (HK is under the policy of one country two systems so it can basically decide everything they want, apart from electing their own leader or in military/foreign affairs). So the economic recession, chicken flu and recently the SARS have devastated the HK economy, no one is happy about it especially the middle class which made up pretty much most of the population. Unemployments and many other social issues... plus the fact that the government did not do anything to help the economy just enraged the people even more. So, for once, we HK people actually cares about politics. and please don't think those democratic parties represent all the voices of HK people. They are way too extreme. HK people are not against the mainland Central government, they are against and unsatisfied about the HK government. What most people need now is a way to rebuild the economy. Once the economy is better and most people have a job, not that many people will care about politics or freedom.

So here's my little prediction of HK's future. once we have a new chief executive and if he/she can fix the economy, the problem is solved. If this "gaining democracy" issue still continue on, I still don't think the Central government will do anything harsh on HK because Taiwan always use HK as an example of "this is what will happen if we reunite with China", so the central government will not really oppressed the HK people because that reduces the chance of Taiwan runiting with them.

So are you saying that the recent instability in HK is largely due to an incapable HK gpvernment?

[NDP Will Win]

The social democrats and the the libertarians are pro-democracy and will topple the big business Beijing-worshipping right-wing elite.

And there's nothing the Nazis on the Mainland can do about it.

I hope Tung Chee-hwa gets killed in the a painful, degrading way.