- 11 Mar 2017 10:44
Ireland's chances are very slim. First, if Scotland lose to England today, then England win the championship. A draw (and assuming England don't score 4 tries in that) puts England 5 points ahead of Ireland; that leaves Ireland the slim chance of beating England by more than 7 and scoring 4 tries, and then winning the championship on goal difference and/or having beaten England in the direct match (not sure what counts first).
If Scotland beat England, then Scotland could end up favourites for the championship - a simple win puts them equal on points with England, and they have Italy as their final game, while England face Ireland. Bonus points complicate all that, of course, but Scotland getting 4 tries against Italy sounds quite likely (everyone else has so far). If England were to lose today, a bonus point for losing by 7 or less may be vital. But if Scotland win, Ireland would need to beat England and Italy would need to beat Scotland for Ireland to get the championship.
So the Irish have to pray for an England-Scotland draw.