you really are not good at this
I do alright.
The campaign this time is a fight between the rich, the corporate wing (Biden, Pete and some wannabees) and the Progressives.
Usually, the establishment types win. But the Progressives have a lot of momentum. Bernie or Liz just might cross the finish line.
This is inherently unpredictable. Liz worked hard, and rose to the top of the pile. And then everyone attacked her, Corporate Dems, other candidates, Republicans, I am pretty sure she got a few Russian trolls.
But that means she's down, not out, although the odds of a comeback are steep.
A lot of this depends on the mood of the voters. Some years the guy that wins Iowa is the guy that wins. They want to rally around a warm body, and they don't care much who that is.
This year, it's a fight (which I've been saying for a couple years). Who is left standing depends on a hundred different things. Luck, the mood of the voters, the mood of the media.
If I had to guess, and I don't particularly want to, I think Pete will come out of Iowa strong. Warren will hang on in NH, maybe not a win, but a good showing. Biden will do well on Super Tuesday, which is usually enough. But between Biden's weakness at campaigning, the energy of the kids, I don't think it will be enough.
These days it always gets settled before the convention. So somewhere in the middle of this overly long catfight, Dems will rally around somebody.