Election 2024 Thread - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15158004
Early, I know. But you'd better believe that the race for the Presidency in 2024 has already begun. So let's talk about it now because it's almost sure to happen no matter how good or bad conditions and circumstances are, even as the elections still occurred during the American Civil War of 1860-1865.

Let the speculations begin!
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By JohnRawls
#15158020
Biden will probably win again, unless something unexpected like health issues happen.
#15158037
Biden is most likely to run for reelection, in which case he will most likely win against whatever the opposition is. However, if, for whatever reason, Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, they are probably fucked, considering how much more disliked she seems to be than even Hillary Clinton. The DNC have successfully warded off the leftists for at least a couple more election cycles with their 2020 victory, and have consequentially dropped any pretense of aiming for a $15 minimum wage, universal healthcare or anything of the like.

On the Republican field, in the short term, things are looking more interesting. Despite what others may say, I cannot see any actual substantive ideological differences between most major Republican politicians, so it's mainly going to be about character and rhetoric. A 'Trump effect', of sorts. Perhaps a Romney-brand straight-from-the box neoliberal will run, but I'd be surprised if they even made it into the top three. If Trump's recent sparring with Mitch McConnell amounts to anything, he could very well run with the GOP again in 2024, or even act as a spoiler candidate for the Republican Party, in either case losing them the election. A Harris v Trump 2024 would definitely be the most entertaining outcome though, I think.
By late
#15158060
Biden will be in his 80s... He won't run again.

I'd love to see Kammy run, but that depends a lot on which nightmare Republicans nominate..

I doubt it will be Trump. Seriously, there's a bunch of reasons.

If it's Nikki, then you might well see a Kammy versus Nikki race. But it's real hard to see Republicans doing that. That leaves the odd ducks that keep kissing Trump's butt.

Big money is not going to give much to a populist. The open extremism is going to find a less welcome reception than Trump got, most of us remember what a shithole those years were, ending with an attack on government. Not many presidents try to bump off their vice president. That's real class.

In the general election, Americans have a long history of rejecting extremists. All that BS about Trump winning and being cheated, that will come back to haunt them in the general election.

One last thing, Bidens been moving fast to fix the country. People like that, and they vote for what they like.

So I expect the race is the Dems to lose.

But, seriously, this is way too early to call.
#15158121
I am really far more interested in how to make the next four years as healing and productive as possible. That said, this kind of thread is a shiny bauble for my brain.

Biden will not run again, for age issues. Whether Harris gets the nod depends on what she does for four years.

Way more interesting for me is what will happen to the GOP. If a significant number of states pass real electoral reform - eliminating partisan primaries and first past the post plurality based outcomes with ranked choice and absolute majority outcome - it will help replace extremists with moderates and help to reintroduce some sanity into the party. 2022 will augur 2024.
By Doug64
#15158142
annatar1914 wrote:Early, I know.

Really early, you completely skipped 2022! You'd better believe what happens next year is going to have a huge impact on what happens in 2024.
#15158145
Doug64 wrote:Really early, you completely skipped 2022! You'd better believe what happens next year is going to have a huge impact on what happens in 2024.


@Doug64 ;

I skipped 2022 because I think we all know what's going to happen in 2022 deep down. Let's put it this way; it'll be clear by 2022 why Biden isn't running for re-election in 2024, and why Harris is like Biden, a stopgap measure by the DNC establishment, unlikely to run in 2024 either. It'll also be clear in 2022 that the GOP is President Trump's party, and that the GOP is totally dependent on him and his followers for it's continued existence. Opponents of his in the GOP will be voted out in 2022 whenever possible, as the Neoconservatives flee to the Democratic Party and White and Non-White working class Democrats and Independents flock to the GOP.

So 2024 is more important, as about the only thing for certain is that President Trump will have been a factor in it's outcome.
By Doug64
#15158158
@annatar1914, I'm not so sure we know what's going to happen in 2022. For one thing, if Biden's policies do the kind of damage to this country--and his supporters political chances--as I expect, how likely are the neocons to board a sinking ship? Besides, I doubt there is going to be much about Biden's foreign policies that neocons like.
#15158160
JohnRawls wrote:Biden will probably win again, unless something unexpected like health issues happen.

Unexpected? You think there are no expected health issues for someone who is 78 years old and exhibits signs of dementia? That's the number 1 reason people think Trump won't run.

Local interest wrote:Biden is most likely to run for reelection, in which case he will most likely win against whatever the opposition is. However, if, for whatever reason, Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, they are probably fucked, considering how much more disliked she seems to be than even Hillary Clinton.

Biden is already a figurehead, and the Democrats are already concerned about him having exclusive control over the nuclear football. Since the establishment, for God knows what reason, wants a woman president, it's not at all inconceivable that they give Biden the heave ho after the 2022 mid terms, leaving Harris an opportunity to run for two terms.

annatar1914 wrote:Let's put it this way; it'll be clear by 2022 why Biden isn't running for re-election in 2024, and why Harris is like Biden, a stopgap measure by the DNC establishment, unlikely to run in 2024 either.

So you think Biden will finish out his first term? I've always figured that he would step down after two years and let Kamala Harris have the presidency. Then, Joe gets the credit for the first woman president--not the electorate.

annatar1914 wrote:It'll also be clear in 2022 that the GOP is President Trump's party, and that the GOP is totally dependent on him and his followers for it's continued existence.

What they're really dependent on is voters, and like the Democrats, the Republican establishment pisses off their base too frequently. Republicans who focus on issues like trade and illegal immigration can step right into Trump's shoes. That takes a certain type of temperament, because such a person is going to be met with imminent attacks from the media.

annatar1914 wrote:Opponents of his in the GOP will be voted out in 2022 whenever possible, as the Neoconservatives flee to the Democratic Party and White and Non-White working class Democrats and Independents flock to the GOP.

Yes, so what is transpiring is a political realignment.
By B0ycey
#15158177
annatar1914 wrote:@Doug64
So 2024 is more important, as about the only thing for certain is that President Trump will have been a factor in it's outcome.


If Trump is a factor in 2024, then we can be certain of a Democrats victory given he would split the Republican vote. And if we are sure that Biden won't run again due to his age, then the same logic is true on Trump in any case.

My opinion is that if a Trump is going to run in 2024 it will be Trump Jr. But as someone wrote in another thread, whether Trump realistically is planning on 2024 or not, in the short term he will say he is planning on running... or imply he is running, in order to finance his ponzi that he had been running since his election defeat.

I guess predictions so early on is futile but nonetheless fun, however Trump may well be in prison in 2024, running his own 'Alex Jones' radio show or even in a home due to his dementia kicking in. Assuming Trump is a factor in 2024 is ignoring all the hurdles he has to conquer and also assuming that he really wants to run in any case.
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By JohnRawls
#15158187
blackjack21 wrote:Unexpected? You think there are no expected health issues for someone who is 78 years old and exhibits signs of dementia? That's the number 1 reason people think Trump won't run.


Biden is already a figurehead, and the Democrats are already concerned about him having exclusive control over the nuclear football. Since the establishment, for God knows what reason, wants a woman president, it's not at all inconceivable that they give Biden the heave ho after the 2022 mid terms, leaving Harris an opportunity to run for two terms.


So you think Biden will finish out his first term? I've always figured that he would step down after two years and let Kamala Harris have the presidency. Then, Joe gets the credit for the first woman president--not the electorate.


What they're really dependent on is voters, and like the Democrats, the Republican establishment pisses off their base too frequently. Republicans who focus on issues like trade and illegal immigration can step right into Trump's shoes. That takes a certain type of temperament, because such a person is going to be met with imminent attacks from the media.


Yes, so what is transpiring is a political realignment.



Yes it is unexpected because our medicine is more advanced right now. Average age expectancy for heavily developed countries is +-80 years with the highest countries being 84+. Meaning that more wealthy than average individuals will live even longer. If artists can do concerts in their 80s and some even in the 90's then serious health issues appearing is indeed unexpected.
#15158195
JohnRawls wrote:Average age expectancy for heavily developed countries is +-80 years with the highest countries being 84+.

So death is expected, but not serious health issues. I see.
#15158200
blackjack21 wrote:So death is expected, but not serious health issues. I see.


Interpret as you want. Basically if health issues don't get in the way then he will almost certainly win. In this sense Biden got it easy:

1) He will be credited for Covid recovery and beating the pandemic.
2) He will be running for re-election which is easier.
3) If Trump or Trump like candidate runs then they literally stand no chance since Biden did what Trump couldn't. (Beat the Pandemic and take it seriously)
4) If a "establishment" candidate challenges Biden then this will invigorate democratic left to vote for Biden even harder while probably will discourage the Trumpists a bit. I can see how the Republicans can win under this choice but the chances are pretty low.
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By Rancid
#15158201
JohnRawls wrote:
Interpret as you want. Basically if health issues don't get in the way then he will almost certainly win. In this sense Biden got it easy:

1) He will be credited for Covid recovery and beating the pandemic.
2) He will be running for re-election which is easier.
3) If Trump or Trump like candidate runs then they literally stand no chance since Biden did what Trump couldn't. (Beat the Pandemic and take it seriously)
4) If a "establishment" candidate challenges Biden then this will invigorate democratic left to vote for Biden even harder while probably will discourage the Trumpists a bit. I can see how the Republicans can win under this choice but the chances are pretty low.


America is pretty fucking stupid.

I think Trump and a Trumpist will win.
#15158212
If we are making predictions:

Trump will say he will run again in order to fleece rubes. He will probably end up believing it. He will be unable to because of legal and/or medical problems.

An even worse grifter and liar will come along and take over what Trump has built.

The Democrats will continue to be spineless invaders with progressive branding.
#15158216
So much for Democratic miracle: So much beating the virus and incredibly seriousness.

* Biden says nothing can change the trajectory of the Covid pandemic over the next several months. This man was accusing Trump. Now look at what he says.

* Hear it from Biden's darling: We might need to keep wearing masks into 2022 to defeat COVID-19, Biden's top advisor Dr. Fauci says.

* Pro-Biden and anti-Trumpist media personalities address Biden's failure on Covid-19. Meghan McCain Wants Dr. Anthony Fauci Replaced With Someone Who “Understands Science”.

* Democrats' darling and anti-trumpist New York State governor covered up Covid-19 deaths. Now he had no choice but to admit: Governor Cuomo admits to withholding nursing home deaths. The governor, who became a Democratic star for his early handling of the crisis, is accused of downplaying a key part of the coronavirus’s death toll. Andrew Cuomo draws bipartisan ire for withholding data on nursing home deaths.

All of these scandals are missed on PoFo. Guess why? :lol:
#15158297
@B0ycey, you said ;

If Trump is a factor in 2024, then we can be certain of a Democrats victory given he would split the Republican vote. And if we are sure that Biden won't run again due to his age, then the same logic is true on Trump in any case.


80 to 90 % of the GOP base would vote for Trump, the Neoconservative/Big Business War party wing of the other 10 to 20% are already migrating to the Democrats, while the blue collar Democrats and Independents are migrating to the GOP. This process will be completed by 2024 I am sure. That being said, Trump 4 years older would not be an issue for them after 4 years of a Democratic administration.

My opinion is that if a Trump is going to run in 2024 it will be Trump Jr. But as someone wrote in another thread, whether Trump realistically is planning on 2024 or not, in the short term he will say he is planning on running... or imply he is running, in order to finance his ponzi that he had been running since his election defeat.


Or that's his idea, once again, to be underestimated by his enemies, to let them think he really doesn't have a long range plan.

I guess predictions so early on is futile but nonetheless fun, however Trump may well be in prison in 2024, running his own 'Alex Jones' radio show or even in a home due to his dementia kicking in. Assuming Trump is a factor in 2024 is ignoring all the hurdles he has to conquer and also assuming that he really wants to run in any case.


I wanted to start this thread early, partly to see how the early comments age.
#15158337
JohnRawls wrote:3) If Trump or Trump like candidate runs then they literally stand no chance since Biden did what Trump couldn't. (Beat the Pandemic and take it seriously)

The reason we have a vaccine is Trump's operation warp speed and guaranteeing the funds. Even Biden admits as much. Of course, we know the media will lie to no end about this, but that's what they do and very few people believe them anymore.

JohnRawls wrote:4) If a "establishment" candidate challenges Biden then this will invigorate democratic left to vote for Biden even harder while probably will discourage the Trumpists a bit.

The Democratic left hates Biden, because he's been pretty much a lackey to bankers and the war machine his whole career.

Istanbuller wrote:* Biden says nothing can change the trajectory of the Covid pandemic over the next several months. This man was accusing Trump. Now look at what he says.

Biden is really no more at fault than Trump. It's state governors who have the power here. The vulnerability for the Democrats is that if they don't get the schools open, female voters with children will finally turn on the Democrats. Biden is also screwing up with the illegal alien stuff. Today, if you want to come to the United States, you need to have been tested for covid within 72 hours and the result negative--except if you're an illegal alien. Then, you can come and spread covid and it's no problem.

Istanbuller wrote:* Pro-Biden and anti-Trumpist media personalities address Biden's failure on Covid-19. Meghan McCain Wants Dr. Anthony Fauci Replaced With Someone Who “Understands Science”.

Meagan McCain is pretty much worthless, but she is right that Fauci needs to go. He's needed to go for a few decades. Why he's been in that position for 30+ years is anyone's guess. We need to have term limits for all public offices--especially the unelected ones. In addition to all his fucked up commentary, he also provided funds to the Wuhan lab that may have played a role in this whole pandemic.

Istanbuller wrote:* Democrats' darling and anti-trumpist New York State governor covered up Covid-19 deaths.

That is substantive, because he actually did fuck it up in a big way. I think the sex scandal stuff is bullshit, but it's the type of thing the establishment puts out there when they want you gone.

Istanbuller wrote:All of these scandals are missed on PoFo. Guess why? :lol:

A lot of them are establishment shills when you get right down to it. They all feign to be something else, but they are frequently defending the Washington establishment.

annatar1914 wrote:80 to 90 % of the GOP base would vote for Trump, the Neoconservative/Big Business War party wing of the other 10 to 20% are already migrating to the Democrats, while the blue collar Democrats and Independents are migrating to the GOP. This process will be completed by 2024 I am sure. That being said, Trump 4 years older would not be an issue for them after 4 years of a Democratic administration.

I'm inclined to agree. The issue for Trump in 2024 is age, but I imagine he would still be far more spry than Biden, who's effectively a zombie. The realignment is going to be a big deal. So to is the backlash against totalitarian government.

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