Zionist Nationalist wrote:Im fairly convinced that Biden will not win. This virus will be gone by November
many "progressive" supporters will not vote at all and some will vote for Trump just to stick it to the DNC
Biden will continute being embarrassing along with his creepy videos and the wird stuff he says will be all over the place
The most important part is what will happen to the economy. the Virus death count wont go above 100k and when mostly elders die it isnt such a big deal
Okay, analysis 101 here. We need to establish a baseline and that baseline/average will be the previous election.
So previous election was rather close, Clinton won the overall vote but lost the election because of the election rules. Now what is Biden Vs Clinton:
1) Biden is a man. (Better than being a women, Clinton didn't attract much more female vote)
2) Biden is white. (They are both white is irrelevant i guess)
3) Biden is less corrupt in the eyes of the people (Republicans didn't spend the last 5 years discredeting Biden)
4) Biden is more charismatic than Clinton (Both are sausages just Biden happens to be less of a sausage i guess)
There are more examples i can give here but overall, Biden is just a stronger candidate than Clinton, just on paper. There is also a very important argument to be made that Clinton cheated Sanders of his nomination while Biden won fair and square. Basically Biden is a less controvertial candidate compared to Clinton in the eyes of the Democrats and Democratic left wing. Yes, they don't like both but Biden is just less controvertial.
Now we look about changes for Trump:
1) It is his re-election(Acting presidents do better for re-elections)
2) People got used to him and he turned out to be basically average. (Which is both good and bad for Trump. I am unsure because from one side this makes him a corporatist but then from the other not crazy as democrats shout)
3) He has not fulfilled his promises regarding the economy(Coronavirus) and building the wall(it is not there). Previously him not fucking up the economy and living off Obamas heritage would have gotten him elected but the economy is fucked now and he is doing nothing.
Again, there is more stuff to be added here but that will be enough for now. Re-election is easier for an acting president and that would be the case of average but not now. If previously Biden being a better candidate than Hillary would not make him win the election then now, with the Covid mismanagement and economic downturn, overall situation is getting tipped over.
Some of the arguments that the "Left" will not vote for Biden is stupid. They didn't vote for Hillary anyways in mass because she basically cheated on Sanders. Biden didn't cheat on Sanders so the resentment here is less. Yes, they will not vote as much as they would for Bernie but that is besides the point. On top of the left being more radicalised and understanding the situation now. Basically, this time people will come out and vote even because of the virus if its still around in November. THey remember the previous election. The left is more radicalised. A lot of the things point in to the direction of Biden right now comapred to what the situation was with Hillary.
This doesn't even covers the dissent that some of the original Republican establishment will put up. Yes, they were more or less quite durring the previous election since they were caught off guard. This time, they are more or less ready to support Biden just not to let Trump win. They had time to prepare and organise regarding this. The Democratic "Left" on the other hand, will not vote for Trump even though they might have sympathies, simply because Trump has radicalised them against himself.