[Doug64]

Yeah, I know, I'm really late this week. I had a very interesting Thanksgiving vacation. Still, I'm definitely one of the 83% that have a lot to be thankful for this holiday.

Americans are taking a break this week from the cares and woes that have beset them all year. Their economic concerns and political views remain largely unchanged, so perhaps they feel they need to share the upcoming season of joy more than ever.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of American Adults, in fact, say they have a lot to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. Just 12% disagree. Perhaps as a reflection of the continuing bad economy, however, more Americans were planning to have their Thanksgiving dinner at home this year, but nearly half - as usual - figured they’d eat too much at the holiday meal.

Even before the much-hyped Black Friday shopping rush, seven percent (7%) of American Adults said they already have finished their holiday shopping. That’s in keeping with years past.

But some early indicators from Black Friday suggest that it didn’t turn out the way retailers hoped it would. Rasmussen Reports will have numbers early next week that will tell us more how Black Friday went.

One thing to keep in mind: 32% of Americans now owe more money than they did last year, and that ties its all-time high.

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, is looking slightly better this past week. Consumer confidence so far in November has been consistently higher than in any month since June. It remains to be seen whether this is the start of an improving economic trend or simply a temporary improvement. Still, only eight percent (8%) of consumers rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent. Sixty-four percent (64%) give the nation's economy a poor rating.

The companion Rasmussen Investor Index, which measures daily confidence in that group, shows little change from three months ago. Among investors, seven percent (7%) give economic conditions in the country positive marks, while most (64%) do not.

Confidence in the short- and long-term housing market remains at or near all-time lows. Only 12% of U.S. homeowners now expect the value of their home to go up over the next year, just above the record low of 11% reached in July. In surveys for over two years prior to that time, the number who expected their home values to rise during the next year remained largely in the low to mid 20s.

The number of American homeowners who owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth is again at an all-time high of 37%.

The continuing problems in the housing market appear to be redefining the American Dream as well. For the sixth consecutive month, fewer than half of Americans say buying a home is a family’s best investment. An overwhelming majority continues to advise against selling a home in their area.

Voters are more skeptical than ever that they’ll get any short-term relief from Washington, D.C. The congressional super committee tasked with finding over a trillion dollars in deficit reduction gave up this past week without an agreement, but then voters expected that all along. Most now believe overwhelmingly that President Obama and Republicans in Congress are unlikely to reach any agreement to make major cuts in government spending prior to next year’s elections.

Social Security is one of the key topics on the deficit-reduction bargaining table. Right now, most voters continue to feel they are unlikely to receive their full Social Security benefits when they retire but still give the federal retirement program generally favorable marks.

Not that congressional action always necessarily makes a difference. Americans believe more strongly than ever that most of the government bailout money for the financial industry went to those who caused the economic meltdown and that the government hasn’t tried hard enough to bring Wall Street criminals to justice.

One thing you can sure we’ll be watching is the dynamic between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the longtime front-runner in the Republican presidential race, and rising challenger Newt Gingrich.

A generic Republican candidate again runs slightly ahead of the president nationally, but Obama now leads all his named opponents. He’s opened up a six-point lead over Romney in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup. This is the widest gap between the two men since mid-August. They’ve been running neck-and-neck for weeks now.

Gingrich, on the other hand, still trails the president 46% to 40%, but this is his highest level of support yet in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup with Obama. Just over a week prior to this survey, the president held a 12-point lead over the former House speaker.

In the crucial state of Florida, Romney holds a slight 46% to 42% lead over the president while Gingrich is slightly behind

The president earns much lower job approval ratings among those who own a home or live in a household where someone owns a gun than he does among all voters nationally. He earns much higher marks among those who don’t own a house or don’t have a gun in the home.

For the second week in a row, Democrats and Republicans are essentially tied on the Generic Congressional Ballot. The previous week, for the first time in nearly two-and-a-half years, Democrats and Republicans earned the same amount of support - 41% each. Republicans had been leading on the ballot every week since June 2009.

In other surveys last week:

-- Most U.S. voters don’t view the political changes in countries like Egypt during this year’s so-called Arab Spring as good for the United States, and even fewer expect any of those countries to become U.S. allies.

-- Most voters support the building of the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada to Texas and believe it can be built without harming the environment. Still, the numbers should be interpreted with some caution since voters are giving only limited attention to the Keystone XL debate thus far.

-- Most Florida voters are unhappy with the job Rick Scott is doing as his first year as governor of Florida winds down.

[Doug64]

So, Gingrich's turn for a day in the sun. Personally, I don't expect it to last - he seems to have a distinct case of foot-in-mouth disease that's bound to trip him up sooner or later.

Flavor of the month or the next presidential nominee of the Republican Party?

As Herman Cain’s campaign disintegrates, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has surged to the largest national lead held by any candidate so far in the race for the GOP’s 2012 nomination. Gingrich earns 38% of the vote from Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is a distant second at 17%. No other candidate reaches double digits.

Gingrich also now edges President Obama by two points in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup – 45% to 43% - after trailing by 12 points two weeks ago.

Earlier in the year, both Texas Governor Rick Perry and Cain followed a similar path to take a slight lead over the president. However, their time as front-runners quickly came to an end. Neither man led the president more than a single time in a Rasmussen Reports poll. It remains to be seen whether Gingrich follows that path or is able to retain his status as the leading alternative to Romney.

Romney is again running neck and neck with the president in their ongoing matchup after the president opened up a six-point lead over his GOP rival the week before. It was the widest gap between the two men since mid-August. Now it’s Obama 42%, Romney 40%. Romney is the only GOP presidential hopeful who has been ahead of the president in more than one survey.

Cain continues to trail Obama by 10 points – 46% to 36% - after edging ahead 43% to 41% in mid-October. However, this survey was taken prior to the claims aired Monday by an Atlanta woman that she has had a 13-year extramarital affair with Cain. The GOP candidate is expected by many to end his run for the White House as early as today. Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters think that’s a good idea.

What a difference a month makes in the Republican race. In September, Perry was leading in Iowa and running second in New Hampshire. In October, Cain took the lead in Iowa and was running second in New Hampshire. Now, Gingrich is gaining ground in New Hampshire. Romney is still ahead among Likely GOP Primary Voters in the Granite State with 34% support, but Gingrich now runs second with 24% of the vote. This is the first survey since the influential statewide Manchester Union Leader newspaper endorsed Gingrich.

Gingrich made news recently when he suggested that the Occupy Wall Street protesters should stop protesting and get jobs after taking a bath. Voters are evenly divided over whether that’s a good idea. But 64% of Republican voters agree with Gingrich.

The president continues to trail a generic Republican candidate in weekly matchups, although he generally leads most named GOP hopefuls.

Obama’s job approval numbers improved slightly in November. His full-month Presidential Approval Index rating for November was -19%, up three points from October’s all-time low of -22 and the president’s best showing in four months. From October 2009 through July of this year though, the president’s approval index rating stayed between -10 and -17.

The president got some good news at week’s end, with new government figures showing that the national unemployment rate fell from 9.0% to 8.6% in November. This mirrors the five-point jump in the Rasmussen Employment Index earlier in the week. Generally speaking, an increase in the index, which measures workers’ perceptions of the labor market each month, suggests the upcoming government reports on job creation will be better than the prior month.

The Employment Index is now the highest since June and is close to where it was at the beginning of 2011. Overall levels of consumer confidence as measured by the Rasmussen Consumer Index, however, are still down from the beginning of the year.

Also, confidence among adults nationwide that the U.S. economy will be stronger a year from now remains at an all-time low. Only 27% believe the economy will be stronger in one year, showing no change from September and the lowest finding in regular tracking since early 2009. Prior to September, the number of adults expecting a stronger economy in a year’s time ranged from 31% to 45%.

Americans continue to share gloomy assessments of the housing and stock markets, too, and half still believe another 1930s-like Depression is possible in the near future.

Just 16% of Likely Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, down 13 points from this time last year. Since the third week in July, the number of voters who are confident in the nation's current course has resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration.

With voters continuing to focus much of their unhappiness on Congress, ratings for the national legislators now match the lowest levels ever recorded. Just six percent (6%) rate the job Congress is doing as good or excellent. Sixty-eight percent (68%) view Congress’ job performance as poor.

Voters overwhelmingly believe it’s important to their lives which political party controls Congress, but Republicans feel more strongly than Democrats about it.

Republicans hold a five-point advantage over Democrats – 43% to 38% -- on the most recent Generic Congressional Ballot. The two were tied two weeks earlier, the only week since July 2009 that the GOP has not led on the ballot.

One likely explanation for this lead is that Republicans continue to be trusted more than Democrats when it comes to the economy, the number one issue on voters’ minds. On all 10 important issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports including health care and national security, voters now trust Republicans more on seven of them.

Speaking of health care, in the first tracking poll since the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to review the constitutionality of the new national health care law, most voters to continue to favor the law’s repeal and think repeal is likely.

A NATO “friendly fire” incident that cost the lives of 24 Pakistani soldiers has added to the president’s headaches in Afghanistan and further damaged the strained U.S.-Pakistan relationship. Hardly any Americans now view Pakistan as an ally of the United States, and there is strong support for ending all foreign aid to that country.

Most voters also remain ready to bring U.S. troops home from Afghanistan, the nation’s longest-running war. Fifty-nine percent (59%) want the troops to come home either immediately or within a year, up from 39% in September 2009 and 51% this past June. Just 29% oppose any firm timetable for withdrawal.

In other surveys last week:

-- After the much-hyped Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, only a few more Americans say they are done with their holiday shopping compared to just before Thanksgiving. Eleven percent (11%) have finished their holiday shopping, up from seven percent (7%) last week and four percent (4%) in early November. But 49% of adults haven’t even started yet.

-- Most Americans plan to spend less money on gifts than they did last year, and fewer adults will be doing their shopping on the Internet.

-- Holiday shoppers, as they have for several years, strongly prefer being greeted with signs reading “Merry Christmas” rather than “Happy Holidays.”

-- The number of Democrats in the United States increased by nearly two percentage points in November, while the number of Republicans held steady. During November, 34.9% of Americans considered themselves to be Democrats, just a tenth of a point below their best showing of 2011 which came in January. For Republicans, they retain the allegiance of 34.3%, unchanged from a month ago.

-- Voters have only a slightly more favorable view of Tea Party activists compared to Occupy Wall Street protesters. But they’re also a bit more likely to link the Tea Party to Republicans than they are to see Democrats as supporters of those protesting on Wall Street and in other financial centers.

-- Americans overwhelmingly believe in the safety of air travel in this country and are more satisfied with airport security measures. Ninety-one percent (91%) think air travel in the United States is at least somewhat safe, with 47% who consider it Very Safe. Most Americans (58%) feel airport security measures are now about right. That’s up 14 points from 44% a year ago when full body scans and full body pat downs by security officials were generating headlines.

[Doug64]

A slight uptick in consumer confidence, IMHO thanks to the holiday season but I hope I'm wrong.

Maybe it’s the holiday season or maybe it’s an indicator of things to come. Last month, the Rasmussen Employment Index signaled a slight drop in the national unemployment rate, subsequently borne out by government figures. Now consumer and investor confidence are improving.

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, is up five points from a month ago. Consumer confidence for the full month of November was the highest it has been since June. Its companion Rasmussen Investor Index, which measures daily confidence among investors, is also up several points from three months ago. Yet more than 60% of both groups believe the country remains in a recession.

Nevertheless, we’ll be watching to see whether this is the start of improving economic trends or simply a temporary aberration.

Still, only 17% of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, down nine points from this time last year. Since the third week in July, the number of voters who are confident in the nation's current course has resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration.

Most voters also now share the pessimistic view that America's best days are behind us. Just 32% say the country’s best days are in the future, while 52% think the best days are in the past, the third time this year that more than half have felt this pessimistically about the future and just one point below the all-time high of 53% reached in April.

Despite the improvement in the unemployment rate, more Americans than ever know someone who is out of work and looking for a job. The number who expect unemployment to be lower a year from now (21%) remains at an all-time low.

At the same time, the number of adults who believe it is possible for anyone in America to work hard and get rich is at its highest level (35%) in nearly three years. But one-out-of-two still don't share that belief.

Congress is again debating whether to extend the funding that makes possible up to 99 weeks of state and federal unemployment benefits, but Americans continue to express skepticism about benefits that last that long. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Adults believe 99 weeks is too long a period to provide unemployment benefits. Forty-three percent (43%) think providing unemployment benefits for that long actually increases the number of people who remain unemployed, although that view is down slightly from a year ago.

Americans are a bit more evenly divided when it comes to whether the economy benefits from the government hiring the unemployed, but nearly a third still thinks the government should do nothing for the long-term unemployed.

Perhaps helping to feed the opposition to more government hiring is the continuing belief by sizable majorities that government employees don’t work as hard, make more money and have more job security than those who work in the private sector.

But one-out-of-four Americans still believe the government should manage the U.S. economy. Nearly as many, however, say the government should mind its own business.

As our elected officials continue to haggle over ways to cut the federal budget, more voters than ever believe the country spends too much on the military and national security. Thirty-eight percent (38%) think America spends too much on defense, up five points from January. Only 19% now believe the United States does not spend enough in this area, while 34% feel the level of spending is about right.

One big area of savings will be the end of the nearly nine-year-old war in Iraq. Most voters (55%) remain convinced that the United States should never have invaded Iraq in March 2003 and believe all U.S. troops should be brought home by the end of this month as planned.

A generic Republican candidate holds an eight-point advantage over President Obama – 49% to 41% - in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup for the week ending Sunday, December 4. This is the largest gap measured between the two since early September.

Most voters continue to be unhappy with the job the president is doing as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, but Obama still fares better in head-to-head matchups with named Republican candidates.

Support for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among Republican primary voters has soared in both national and state polls, but he now trails the president 45% to 40% after edging slightly ahead the week before.

Obama holds a double-digit lead over Texas Governor Rick Perry, another candidate who briefly held a slight lead over the president. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman's level of support remains essentially unchanged, and he continues to trail Obama by seven points – 41% to 34%.

Following another allegation of sexual misbehavior and increasing questions about his lack of foreign policy expertise, Georgia businessman Herman Cain announced last Saturday that he was ending his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. In a survey taken just prior to that announcement, 51% of voters thought it was a good idea for Cain to end his campaign.

Gingrich is the latest Republican presidential hopeful to meet with billionaire developer Donald Trump who is scheduled to moderate a GOP debate later this month. But a sizable number of voters think Republican presidential candidates are paying too much attention to Trump, and an overwhelming majority say his endorsement would hurt a candidate in their eyes or have no impact. Just after the release of these findings, two of the Republican candidates announced they would not participate in Trump’s debate, and now it seems likely the debate will be cancelled.

For the second week in a row, Republicans hold a five-point advantage over Democrats – 43% to 38% - on the Generic Congressional Ballot. Republicans have led on the ballot every week but one since June 2009.

It’s been nearly a year since she was arguably the most powerful person in Congress, but former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi remains the best-known and most unpopular congressional leader. She continues to hold a double-digit lead in terms of unfavorables over John Boehner who took her place as speaker.

In other surveys last week:

-- At a time when most Americans see political correctness as a serious problem in this country, an overwhelming majority (79%) continues to believe religious holidays should be celebrated in the public schools. Seventy-three percent (73%) also think religious symbols like Christmas nativity scenes, Hanukkah menorahs and Muslim crescents should be allowed on public land.

-- Will he or won’t he run for the presidency in 2016? Only Vice President Joe Biden knows for sure, refusing to rule out another run for the White House in an interview earlier this month on NBC’s “Today” show. Right now, however, the vice president is earning some of the highest unfavorables since he took office in late January 2009.

-- The United States continues to fight in Afghanistan, the nation’s longest-running war, but a sizable number of Americans don’t know enough about Leon Panetta, the new secretary of Defense, to have any kind of opinion about him.

-- Despite recent concerns about Chevrolet’s electric Volt possibly catching fire in a crash, most Americans aren’t worried about the safety of electric cars but still don’t intend to buy one in the next 10 years.

-- Americans are growing even less enthusiastic about tax breaks for those who buy alternative-energy cars, and most oppose a proposal to give purchasers of electric cars a $10,000 tax credit to offset the high price of those vehicles. Still, most see a future with a lot more alternative-energy vehicles on the road.

-- Whether Americans celebrate Christmas or not, most are not offended by the type of holiday greeting they receive this time of year. Among those who celebrate Christmas, 76% say they wouldn’t be offended if someone wished them “Happy Holidays” instead of "Merry Christmas."

[Doug64]

Interesting Gingrich/Romney matchup.

It was a newsy week - with the Iraq war coming to a quiet close, the Obama administration’s fight against state anti-immigration efforts going to the U.S. Supreme Court and Newt Gingrich’s runaway train seeming to slow in the Republican presidential race.

The majority of U.S. voters believe Iraq is better off than when dictator Saddam Hussein was in power, but they're not so sure the war-torn country will become peaceful and democratic anytime soon. One thing for sure: If civil war breaks out in Iraq, voters strongly believe U.S. troops should not get involved.

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday announced it will decide whether the law Arizona adopted last year to fight illegal immigration violates the Constitution as the U.S. Justice Department contends. But a new survey finds that most voters still support a similar immigration law for their own state. Seventy-three percent (73%) agree that government officials are not doing enough to stop illegal immigration, and 63% think a state should have the right to enforce immigration laws if it believes the federal government is not enforcing them.

Voters continue to believe strongly that the federal government’s actions are encouraging illegal immigration as the Justice Department ended the week announcing bias charges against a popular Arizona sheriff for his anti-immigration efforts.

Attorney General Eric Holder has problems of his own as calls for his resignation grow as more revelations about the botched Fast and Furious gun trafficking operation surface. That operation put numerous guns in the hands of Mexican drug cartels, and now more voters than ever have an unfavorable opinion of Holder.

With the 2012 presidential campaign season scheduled to kick off in less than three weeks with the January 3 Iowa Caucus, the Republican field has a new front-runner in Iowa – for the fifth straight survey. Gingrich now appears to be following in the footsteps of previous “anti-Romney” candidates Rick Perry and Herman Cain. A month ago, Gingrich had jumped to a 32% to 19% lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in Iowa, but now the race is Romney 23%, Gingrich 20% and Paul 18%. Still, with a sizable number of Iowa Caucus-goers uncertain of their vote, anything goes .

Romney remains on top of the New Hampshire Republican Primary field, but the race for second place between Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul in the January 10 primary is a lot closer than it was just two weeks ago. Romney earns 33% of the vote, followed by Gingrich at 22%. Paul now picks up 18% support, his best showing in the Granite State so far. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman comes in fourth with 10% of the vote, with no other candidate reaching double digits. Support for Romney, Gingrich and Huntsman is little changed from the previous survey, but Paul has now closed the 10-point gap between him and Gingrich to just four points.

Many analysts have suggested that there is still time for someone new to enter the Republican presidential race, but there is currently little enthusiasm in New Hampshire for a couple of the bigger names – former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels - to jump in.

Romney also remains slightly ahead of President Obama in an Election 2012 matchup for the second week in a row. He remains the only GOP presidential hopeful to lead Obama in more than one survey to date, and the two men have been running nearly even in surveys for months.

The president continues to trail a generic Republican candidate in weekly surveys but beats all his named GOP competitors except Romney in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups.

At the end of last month, Gingrich held a slight 45% to 43% lead over Obama, but he now trails the president by 10 points. Paul's support remains unchanged since September as he continues to run several points behind the president.

Romney is still the Republican candidate that voters like the most, while Perry remains the GOP hopeful they like the least. Among Republican voters, however, Romney and Gingrich are running neck-and-neck, but Gingrich has the edge when it comes to enthusiasm.

Voters rate Gingrich and Romney evenly when asked which Republican presidential candidate would run strongest against Obama, but among GOP voters, Gingrich is the clear favorite.

Just over one-third of all Likely U.S. Voters now trust Obama more than the Republican candidates for president when it comes to the handling of the economy, national security and health care. However, the president does have the trust of more voters than any individual GOP candidate at this time.

But voters have not changed their views of how the president is performing when it comes to the economy. Forty-eight percent (48%) rate Obama’s handling of economic issues as poor, while 33% think he’s doing a good or excellent job in this area. Voters remain more enthusiastic about the president’s handling of national security issues. There’s been no change in the president’s overall job approval ratings as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Daily consumer and investor confidence as measured by the Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes remain up from three months ago, but two-thirds of both groups also continue to believe the country is still in a recession.

Most voters continue to believe the economy would be better off if both taxes and government spending were reduced, but if taxes are increased, voters still lean toward raising them only on the rich.

As it has for most of the year, Congress closed the week haggling over budget issues including a possible tax hike on the wealthy. A plurality (45%) of voters now thinks the agendas of both major political parties in Congress are equally extreme. This is the first time in regular surveying since August of last year that voters have rated the congressional agendas of the two parties so closely alike, although voters continue to see them as poles apart ideologically.

Republicans continue to lead Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot as they have every week but one since June 2009.

In other surveys last week:

-- Nineteen percent (19%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, the highest level of optimism measured in nearly three months. Still, that’s down four points from this time last year. Since the third week in July, the number of voters who are confident in the nation's current course has resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration.

-- Most voters (55%) still want to repeal the national health care law, even though they tend to believe the law won’t force them to change their own health insurance coverage.

-- Forty-four percent (44%) of American Adults are at least somewhat confident in the stability of the U.S. banking industry today, up 10 points from the all-time low of 34% measured last month. Forty-eight percent (48%) lack confidence in the nation’s banking industry. Prior to the meltdown in the fall of 2008, 68% expressed confidence in the stability of the U.S. banking system.

-- Most voters now believe America’s alliances do more good than harm.

-- Forty percent (40%) of Americans are giving less to charity than they did last year, but adults are more confident that the money they donate will be used effectively. The number of Americans who say they are giving less this year is up five points from a year ago but is similar to the result measured in 2009.

-- As of last weekend, 21% of Americans had finished their holiday shopping, but one-third hadn’t even started yet.

-- More Americans than ever (81%) say they celebrate the upcoming holiday of Christmas as a religious one.

[Doug64]

Merry Christmas! I wonder how many of us were among the panicked few that hadn't finished our Christmas shopping, or even started? Not me, I love Amazon!

The vast majority of Americans celebrate tomorrow as Christmas, and most of those folks recognize the day as a celebration of the birth of Jesus Christ. It’s a time to pause momentarily even as the news hurtles on in places as remote as North Korea and as near as Iowa where the race for the presidency gathers steam.

For a sizable number of adults, the last couple days have been panic time. As of Friday morning, 38% hadn’t finished their holiday shopping, and 18% hadn’t even started yet. Still, there’d been a lot of shopping going since Monday when 57% hadn’t finished and 26% had yet to start.

More toys may have been on the shopping list, too. Just 41% of American Adults are even somewhat concerned about the safety of most toys being sold this holiday season, down from 51% a year ago.

The number of adults who expect to travel away from home during the holiday season has slowly increased in recent years, but half still say the current economy makes them less likely to do so.

Speaking of the economy, President Obama may be getting a Christmas present of sorts with consumer confidence as measured by the Rasmussen Consumer Index remaining near the highest levels of the past seven months. That confidence is still short of where it was at the beginning of the year, however. The Rasmussen Investor Index shows a similar recent rise in confidence among investors.

This helps explain why the president on Friday earned his best Job Approval Index rating since July 15 in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Twenty-two percent (22%) of voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, the highest level of optimism measured in over five months. Since the third week in July, the number of voters who are confident in the nation's current course has resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration. It is too soon to determine whether the findings in all these surveys are just a temporary uptick in optimism or the start of a trend.

At the same time, just 44% of U.S. homeowners believe their house is worth more than the amount they still owe on their mortgage. That’s down from 51% a month ago and the lowest finding ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports on this question. Results have been tracked regularly since December 2008 and sporadically before that. Homeowners also express little confidence that the situation will change any time soon.

Concern that the government won’t do enough in response to the bad economy has reached its highest level in over three years of regular surveying. Just 39% of voters worry more that the federal government will do too much in reacting to current economic problems. Fifty percent (50%) now are more worried that the government will not do enough.

Most Americans remain concerned about inflation but are slightly more confident in the Federal Reserve Board's ability to keep it under control.

The president is essentially tied with a generic Republican candidate in their latest weekly matchup. That’s the closest margin in over a month of tracking and only the third time the Republican has not been ahead in weekly surveys since May.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is the only named Republican who has led Obama in more than one survey this past year, but the two generally have been running neck-and-neck. Romney held a one-point lead over the incumbent two weeks ago, but the latest survey finds the president ahead 44% to 41%.

For the third straight week, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has lost ground in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup against the president. Obama now attracts 48% of the vote, while Gingrich earns 37% support. The new numbers reflect a sharp decline from the peak of the Gingrich surge in late November when he led the president by a 45% to 43% margin.

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann hasn't gained any ground on Obama in their latest matchup. The president leads Bachmann 48% to 35%. While he seems to be doing better among likely Iowa Caucus-goers, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum continues to trail Obama by double-digits – 47% to 37%.

Romney and Texas Congressman Ron Paul are leading the Republican presidential pack in Iowa with the caucus just around the corner. But large numbers of voters remain uncommitted, and lots could change between now and January 3. This poll reflects the highest level of support yet measured for Romney and Paul. It’s also by far the best result yet for Santorum who on Tuesday received an endorsement from Bob Vander Plaats, a major social conservative leader in Iowa. Romney and Paul have fairly consistent bases of support in Iowa. So that leaves more than half the vote up for grabs, and four candidates – Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann and Santorum - playing musical chairs in hopes of winning the remaining top-tier seats heading out of Iowa.

In Iowa, Romney also has more second choice support than the other candidates.

Republicans continue to lead Democrats on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot as they have every week but one since June 2009. It’ll be interesting to note whether the GOP’s misplay of this past week’s payroll tax cut vote will impact those numbers as the two parties continue to wrangle over how to cut the federal deficit.

U.S. elections are frequently raucous and out of control, but they’re miles ahead of the secret passing of power that takes place in countries like North Korea where just this past week longtime dictator Kim Jong-il died and was quickly replaced by one of his sons. Voters are not optimistic about the change in leadership in communist North Korea, and many are concerned that it will lead to war between North Korea and South Korea. Just 12% think the change in leadership in North Korea will be good for the United States.

Also on the foreign policy front, confidence that the United States can win the war in Afghanistan has fallen to an all-time low. Most voters also are more worried that the United States will remain in Afghanistan too long but trust the military commanders on the timing for a troop withdrawal more than the president.

As the last U.S. troops in Iraq come home, voters continue to have pessimistic views about the near future of the nation the United States has occupied for nearly nine years. Only 24% think the situation in Iraq will get better in the next six months.

In other surveys last week:

-- The U.S. Justice Department is challenging as racially biased South Carolina’s new law that requires showing a photo ID before voting, but voters nationwide overwhelmingly favor such a requirement and reject the idea that it is discriminatory.

-- Most voters continue to question whether they will get the Medicare benefits they are entitled to, and nearly one-out-of-three is willing to raise taxes to ensure that they do.

-- A third (34%) of American voters oppose an immigration policy that keeps out only criminals, national security threats and those who come to live off America’s welfare system because they don’t think it’s restrictive enough.

-- The National Transportation Safety Board has called for a federal ban on all cellular phone use while driving, including hands-free devices. More than one-third of Americans favor such a ban, but most think hands-free devices should still be allowed.

-- Twenty-three percent (23%) 0f Americans now prefer to read a book on an electronic device rather than in traditional print format, up from eight percent (8%) in February. Sixty-four percent (64%) still like reading a traditional printed book.

[Doug64]

Yes, I'm really late this week, blame it on an interesting story and the holiday. So, it's a few days old (the very latest non-Rasmussen poll has Santorum in second), but on to Iowa!

The old year’s out, the new year’s in, but you’d hardly notice it from the unbroken pace of politicking in Iowa as Tuesday’s caucus approaches. Now it’s time for Election 2012 to get real.

After months of volatility, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul remain the front-runners in Iowa for the third week in a row. Romney earns 23% support from likely caucus participants to Paul’s 22%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum has moved into third place with 16%, his best showing to date, closely followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Governor Rick Perry who earn 13% of the vote each. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann picks up five percent (5%) support, while former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman gets three percent (3%), marking no movement on either candidate’s part over the past week.

But 41% of these likely caucus-goers say they still could change their minds, and six percent (6%) more have no first preference, suggesting that much could change in the last few days. In short, as Scott Rasmussen wrote recently, it continues to be a game of musical chairs in Iowa to determine who will emerge near the top and go on in the contest for the Republican presidential nomination.

Romney has now jumped out front of President Obama by a 45% to 39% margin. It’s his biggest lead ever over the incumbent and also the biggest lead a named Republican candidate has held over Obama in Rasmussen Reports surveying to date.

After three straight weeks of decline, support nationally for Gingrich stabilized this week, although he still trails the president by 10 points – 47% to 37%.

Obama remains in a near tie with a generic Republican candidate in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup. The president has led the generic candidate only three times in weekly tracking since late May.

Obama’s overall job approval rating as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll was unchanged this past week, but opinions about the president are divided sharply along lines of faith and religious participation. He earns a job approval rating of 58% among those who rarely or never attend church or religious services. However, among those who attend services every week or nearly every week, just 38% offer their approval. Among those who attend more than one service a week, approval is even lower at 31%.

Looked at from another perspective, Obama earns a 31% approval rating among Evangelical Christians, a 38% rating among Catholics and approval from 44% of other Protestants. Among voters who do not claim a Christian faith, including many who claim no religious faith of any kind, the president’s job approval is substantially higher at 65%.

The economy remains the top issue for all voters nationwide, with 80% who say it’s Very Important in terms of how they will vote in the next election. Health care runs second. Most voters continue to favor repeal of the health care law and believe it will drive up the cost of health care in America, contrary to what its backers promised.

So how do Americans view the economy these days? As 2012 approaches, consumer confidence as measured by the Rasmussen Consumer Index remains near the highest levels of the past seven months and is approaching the levels reached at the beginning of 2011. The Rasmussen Investor Index now matches the first reading of the year.

At the same time, more homeowners than ever say (29%) their home is worth less now than when they bought it.

Just when you think the numbers couldn’t get any worse for Congress, the end of session debacle over the payroll tax extension comes along and drives perceptions of Congress even lower. Only five percent (5%) of Likely Voters rate the job Congress is doing as good or excellent. Sixty-eight percent (68%) view Congress’ job performance as poor. That’s the lowest level of congressional approval ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports. However, in the larger sense, it’s just a continuation of a downward trend as the percentage who give Congress good marks has remained in single digits since mid-April.

Most voters agree that extending a 2% cut in the Social Security payroll tax for all of 2012 will be beneficial for the economy but won’t significantly impact their financial plans for the year. Congress finally signed off on a two-month extension of the tax cut just before heading home for the holidays but hopes to extend the tax cut for all of 2012 when it reconvenes after the first of the year.

Most voters continue to favor the building of the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada to Texas that congressional Republicans are prodding the president to approve as part of the recently passed payroll tax cut legislation. Republicans see the pipeline as a job creator, while Democrats view it as an environmental risk.

Republicans continue to hold a modest lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot as they have every week but one since June 2009, meaning slightly more voters are likely to vote for the GOP candidate in the next congressional elections.

Voters right now give the edge to Republicans when asked which political party is likely to win the White House and control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in next November’s elections. Republicans are more confident about their party’s chances than Democrats are, but a lot of voters are undecided.

A growing number of voters want the government to do more in response to the ailing economy. What they’re looking for, however, is for government to shrink itself rather than expand its presence in the economy. Seventy-seven percent (77%) want the government to cut deficits; 71% think the government should cut spending, and 59% want the government to cut taxes. This is consistent with long-held voter views that cutting spending and taxes is good for the economy.

Interestingly, however, most voters don't believe government spending will go down even if Republicans control both the White House and Congress, but they’re also sure spending will go up if Democrats are in charge of both branches of government.

Political spats and elections come and go, but one thing most voters still agree on is that government is not the solution to their problems. Ronald Reagan said it in his first inaugural address in January 1981: “Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem,” and 60% of Likely Voters agree with the iconic president. Yet while 69% of Mainstream voters think government is the problem, not the solution, 78% of the Political Class disagree.

In other surveys last week:

-- Twenty percent (20%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction. That’s down two points from last week’s five-month high of 22%. From the third week in July through earlier this month, the number of voters who were confident in the nation's current course had resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration. It is too soon to determine whether the last three surveys are just a temporary uptick in optimism or the start of a trend.

-- The U.S. Supreme Court recently announced it will review the constitutionality of the national health care law and Arizona's law cracking down on illegal immigration, although rulings on the high-profile cases are months away. The decisions to review these laws have done little to change voter opinions of the high court.

-- For most adults, Christmas continues to be America's most important holiday. Most adults who recognize Christmas celebrate it as a religious holiday, and an overwhelming majority believes in the divinity of Jesus Christ.

-- Americans plan to be busy this New Year’s Eve. Forty-four percent (44%) plan to kiss someone at midnight. Slightly more (61%) plan to say a prayer on New Year's Eve, but it's not clear if that's before or after the kiss. Just 22% will be asleep by the time midnight rolls around.

-- As 2011 comes to an end, Americans expected it to be better than it turned out, but they are slightly more optimistic about the future than they were last year at this time.

[Doug64]

So, the first polls since the Iowa caucuses, on to New Hampshire!

Like a weathered old gunslinger who has to face down every newcomer who thinks he’s faster on the draw, Mitt Romney has yet another challenger stepping out of the pack. First it was Michele Bachmann followed by Rick Perry; then it was Herman Cain. Next came Newt Gingrich, and now it’s Rick Santorum.

After his photo finish with Romney in last Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses, Santorum is now in second place among Republican voters in the race for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination. Romney’s back in first place with support from 29%, followed by Santorum with 21%. Gingrich, who led in late November with 38% of the vote, now runs third with 16%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, the third place finisher in Iowa, picks up 12% of the vote, up from eight percent (8%) in the previous survey.

In the short term, Romney doesn’t appear to have any worries. Next up is the first-in the-nation New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, and the former Massachusetts governor is pulling far ahead. His nearest rival now trails him by more than 20 points.

But Santorum has focused little on New Hampshire and instead is counting on the January 21 South Carolina primary to give his candidacy momentum for the long haul. Just two months ago, the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania had only one percent (1%) support among likely South Carolina Republican Primary voters. Now he’s running a close second there with 24% of the vote. Romney’s still in the lead with 27% support. Gingrich is in third with 18%, followed by Paul at 11%.

Romney remains the most competitive Republican presidential contender as far as President Obama is concerned, with the two men running even again this week. A generic Republican candidate now holds a narrow lead over Obama as has been the case in all but three weekly surveys since late May. But aside from Romney, Obama leads all the named GOP candidates.

Gingrich still trails the president by 10 points – 49% to 39% - in a hypothetical 2012 general election matchup surveyed the night before the Iowa caucuses. Obama receives his highest level of support yet against former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman – 46% to 33% - in their latest matchup.

Likely Republican primary voters nationwide see Romney as the strongest challenger to Obama, but regardless of who wins their party's nomination, most of these voters are confident their candidate will win the White House in November.

Voters, regardless of party affiliation, identify all of the leading Republican presidential contenders as ideological conservatives but see Romney and Paul as the least conservative of the group.

Obama ended 2011 with a slight improvement in his job approval rating, but it was still lower than at the beginning of the year.

The president got some good news at week’s end, however, with the report that the national unemployment rate fell a bit further last month to 8.5%. That development was correctly anticipated by the Rasmussen Employment Index for December which rose to its highest level since November 2010. The index which measures workers’ perceptions of the labor market is now two points higher than it was at the start of 2011.

Both the Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes, which measure daily confidence among those groups, were up slightly at the end of the week but still down several points from where they were a year ago. Nearly 60% of consumers and investors continue to think the country is in a recession.

On the final day of 2011, 36% of American adults rated their own finances as good or excellent. That was the most optimistic assessment of the month and highlighted a trend of modestly improving confidence during the final two months of the year.

At the same time, the number of Americans who expect to be earning more money in a year’s time has fallen to a record low (30%), while those who expect to be making even less than they are now is at its highest level in two-and-a-half years at 17%. A plurality (47%) of working Americans feels their best opportunity for career advancement is to stay put, and fewer (29%) believe their next job will be better than their current one. The latter marks the lowest level of confidence measured since November 2010.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Americans know someone who joined the military because of the bad job market, and most adults (57%) feel that veterans like those now returning from Iraq should be given special consideration when applying for a private sector job.

Speaking of those who need jobs, enough is enough as far as most voters are concerned when it comes to the Occupy Wall Street protesters. In fact, 51% of Likely U.S. Voters now view the protesters as a public nuisance. Thirty-three percent (33%) think the Occupy Wall Street movement will hurt the Democratic Party in the 2012 elections.

Republicans continue to hold a modest lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot as they have every week but one since June 2009, meaning slightly more voters are likely to vote for the GOP candidate in the next congressional elections.

Voters sure don’t care for the Congress they currently have. Forty-eight percent (48%) now believe that most members of Congress are corrupt, the most pessimistic assessment to date.

The number of Republicans in the country increased by a percentage point in December, while the number of Democrats fell back two points to the lowest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports. During December, 35.4% of Americans considered themselves Republicans, while just 32.7% said they were Democrats. The number of voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties rose to 32.0%.

In other surveys last week:

-- Twenty-two percent (22%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction. That ties a five-month high first reached in mid-December. From the third week in July through the first week in December, the number of voters who were confident in the nation's current course had resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration.

-- Most voters continue to have a favorable opinion of Social Security even though they don’t think it’s a good deal for working Americans. Not surprisingly, younger voters remain more skeptical of the system than older voters do.

-- Most Americans still believe any good student can find a way to get into college, and if a student is accepted at a college but can't afford it, 38% of adults think the government should pay for it.

-- Although the abortion issue doesn't rank high in terms of voting importance, voters nationwide remain consistent on the topic: 49% are pro-choice, while 43% say they are pro-life. Pro-choice voters have slightly outnumbered pro-lifers in surveys for several years. But most voters (53%) also continue to believe abortion is morally wrong most of the time.

-- Tax hiking activists in California have been airing a TV commercial pointing out that millionaire celebrity Kim Kardashian pays a 10.3% state tax rate when the average middle class family is paying 9.3%. The commercial includes the full screen message “We All Need to Pay Our Fair Share.” But most voters nationally think the state's present tax rates are fair, and a sizable number say the 10.3% rate is too high.

-- Unlike U.S. troops returning from World War II and the Gulf war, the veterans coming home from the now-ended war in Iraq won’t be getting a national parade to honor their service, and most Americans agree the parade should wait until all troops are withdrawn from Afghanistan, too.

-- Thirty percent (30%) of Americans planned to make New Year’s resolutions this past weekend, but just 41% of those adults think they are Very Likely to keep them. Only 12% of American consider New Year’s Day to be one of the nation’s most important holidays.

[Doug64]

And now, on to South Carolina!

Next Saturday’s South Carolina Republican Primary is expected to thin the pack of presidential hopefuls, but for now Mitt Romney, winner of both the Iowa caucuses and last Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary, is the man to beat. New numbers out of South Carolina and Florida suggest that may be easier said than done.

Romney still holds first place in the South Carolina Primary field, while his opponents jockey for second. The former Massachusetts governor earns 28% support, virtually unchanged from a week ago, but now former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is in second place with 21% of the vote. Support for former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum who was in second a week ago has fallen back to 16%, putting him dead even with Texas Congressman Ron Paul who also earns 16%.

Texas Governor Rick Perry, whose continued candidacy likely depends on the South Carolina vote, now captures six percent (6%) support, while former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman runs last with five percent (5%).

Of course, much can change in the closing days before the South Carolina primary, with just 52% who say they are certain of their vote at this time. In Iowa, a late surge by Santorum nearly swept him to victory. In New Hampshire, Paul and Huntsman made gains in the final days of the campaign. This suggests whoever is perceived as the most effective tactical alternative to Romney could see a last-minute surge in South Carolina as well.

The next big test for the GOP presidential field is the January 31 primary in Florida, and Romney is currently running away with the race there. He now picks up 41% support with Gingrich a distant second at 19%. Santorum runs third with 15% of the vote. Paul and Hunstman are next with nine percent (9%) and five percent (5%) support respectively. Perry runs dead last among primary voters in the Sunshine State with two percent (2%) support.

Speaking of New Hampshire, our final survey before the actual vote showed Romney 37%, Paul 17% and Huntsman 15%. The actual results were Romney 39%, Paul 23% and Huntsman 17%. Party primaries like New Hampshire where independents also can vote are notoriously hard to call, and Paul was the biggest recipient of votes from voters not registered as Republicans.

Every four years New Hampshire is invaded by politicians as the presidential nomination race of one or both parties begins to formally take off. Roughly one-in-three (32%) of New Hampshire’s Likely GOP Primary Voters say they have personally met at least one of the candidates this primary season. Six percent (6%) have met more than three.

Very few voters (18%) nationally like the fact that Iowa and New Hampshire always go first in the presidential selection process, and most prefer the idea of regional primaries instead.

A generic Republican candidate continues to run slightly ahead of President Obama as has been the case nearly every week since late May. Romney remains the only named Republican hopeful who has led the president in more than one hypothetical Election 2012 matchup. This past week, Obama leads Romney by three – 44% to 41%. The two candidates have been running neck-and-neck in regular surveys since January 2011. The former governor’s support has ranged from 38% to 45%, while the president has picked up 39% to 46% of the vote.

While the Republican presidential hopefuls continue to fight it out, Romney is the only GOP contender that most voters view as having a chance against Obama.

Still, for the first time since early December, Gingrich is within single digits of the president – 46% to 38% - in an Election 2012 matchup. Santorum trails Obama by a similar 46% to 39% in their latest hypothetical contest.

Although Paul had strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, his support remains little changed nationally in his latest matchup with the president. Obama leads him 43% to 37%.

Paul at a debate last Saturday night in New Hampshire refused to rule out a third party run for the presidency if he fails to win the Republican nomination. But there’s minimal support (6%) for a third party candidate among Republican voters even if their favorite candidate is not the nominee. If Paul doesn’t win the Republican nomination, however, 22% of GOP voters who support him say they plan to vote third party, a finding that is paralleled in our latest surveys in South Carolina and Florida.

More voters than ever dislike the Tea Party, and a sizable number thinks the grass roots movement will hurt Republicans in this year’s elections. But most GOP voters don’t agree and still see the Tea Party as good for them in November. Nevertheless, as far as all voters are concerned, the Tea Party is more potentially toxic to the GOP than the Occupy Wall Street movement is for Democrats.

Voters see that movement as liberal, and most still believe the president is to the left of them ideologically. Just 27% feel Obama has about the same ideological views as they do. Fifty-five percent (55%) say Obama is more liberal than they are, while 11% believe he’s more conservative. Pluralities of voters also continue to believe that the congressional agendas of both major parties are extreme.

Unfavorable reviews for all four top congressional leaders are at their highest levels in three years, although voters continue to regard the Democratic leaders, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, more negatively than their GOP counterparts, John Boehner and Mitch McConnell. Republicans continue to hold a small lead over Democrats on the weekly Generic Congressional Ballot, as they have for two-and-a-half years now.

The economy remains the number one issue on voters’ minds, and perceptions of the president’s handling of economic issues have improved slightly. Thirty-seven percent (37%) now rate the way Obama is dealing with the economy as good or excellent, his highest positives since July. But even more (43%) still give the president poor marks in this area. Since the fall of 2009, Obama's negatives in the area of the economy have generally exceeded his positives in regular tracking.

Voters, in fact, now blame President Bush only slightly more than Obama for the continuing bad economy. It’s the narrowest gap between the two in nearly 18 months.

Americans in recent weeks have been sending increasingly mixed signals about the economy. Concern about inflation remains high but appears to be easing somewhat as Americans show more confidence in the Federal Reserve Board to keep it under control. Still, a sizable majority expects to pay more for groceries in the months ahead.

Americans overwhelmingly believe that they will be paying more for gas six months from now, and most worry that increasing tensions with Iran will prompt a spike in prices at the pump.

Most Americans (51%) continue to lack confidence in the stability of U.S. banks. Since February 2009, those lacking confidence in the system have ranged from 46% to 57%. By contrast, in September 2008 just prior to the Wall Street meltdown, 68% of adults were confident in the banking system.

Investor confidence as measured by the Rasmussen Consumer Index reached its highest level in nearly a year on Friday. Ten percent (10%) of consumers rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, as do 13% of investors. But a majority of both consumers (57%) and investors (50%) still give economic conditions in the country poor marks.

In other surveys last week:

-- Twenty-four percent (24%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction. That’s the highest level of confidence measured since the first week in July. But 69% still think the country is heading down the wrong track.

-- Most voters still want to see the national health care law repealed and believe repeal of the controversial measure is likely.

-- Gun crimes remains a common feature in the news, but just 38% of American Adults now think the United States needs stricter gun control laws, virtually unchanged in regular tracking back to February 2006. Fifty percent (50%) see no need for tougher anti-gun laws, while 11% are undecided. Similarly unchanged over several years of surveying are the 77% of Americans who think the U.S. Constitution guarantees the right of the average citizen to own a gun.

-- Belief that global warming is a serious problem is at its highest level in two-and-half-years, but fewer voters than ever give Obama positive marks on his handling of this issue.

-- Sixty percent (60%) of Americans agree that military service is good for the young but also acknowledge that it's a more stressful line of work than most other jobs.

-- More Americans than ever (64%) believe the Federal Communications Commission should be allowed to regulate objectionable content on television and radio as the U.S. Supreme Court debates whether the government should retain that power.

-- Members of the Washington, D.C. City Council are proposing a law that would make all high school students take college entrance exams and apply to at least one post-secondary school as requirements for graduation. But most Americans don't like the proposals.

[Rainbow Crow]

A slight derail maybe (though this was touched upon in the Rasmussen poll) but I wonder how trying to limit the rate at which people can buy cigarettes would go? Would it be constitutional? Would people support it? The problem is the addiction part after all. I'm skeptical of the effectiveness of the blackened lungs pictures myself.

[Doug64]

My personal opinion, for what it's worth, is that the most Congress could do constitutionally is restrict the amount of cigarettes crossing state lines. But then, I also believe the federal rationing during WWII and the current federal ban of recreational drugs were and are also unconstitutional. As for enough people supporting it, not a chance.

[Doug64]

A little late, and just predating the South Carolina primary, of course, but here we go:

And then there were four. The South Carolina Primary claimed two of the Republican presidential hopefuls this past week – Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry – before a single vote was cast. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are now running nearly even, but with all the charges in the air, who knows if that will last until the votes are counted this evening?

Gingrich surged ahead of Romney 33% to 31% in the final Rasmussen Reports survey of the South Carolina Republican Primary race taken Wednesday evening. Two days earlier, before a strong debate showing by Gingrich and Sarah Palin’s endorsement of the former House speaker, it was Romney by 14 percentage points.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul ran third on Wednesday with 15% of the vote, followed by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum at 11%. Paul's support held steady while Santorum's support dropped five points since Monday. At the beginning of the month, after Santorum’s strong showing in the Iowa caucuses, he ran second to Romney with 24%. Perry pulled two percent (2%) support Wednesday evening but has since dropped out of the race.

Still, nearly one-in-three primary voters (31%) said they could change their minds, and it’s unclear how Perry’s withdrawal, the growing dispute over Romney’s taxes or a televised interview Thursday evening with one of Gingrich’s former wives might impact the contest.

There’s been a similar tightening of the national race for the Republican presidential nomination with Romney still on top but Gingrich just three points behind – 30% to 27%. Santorum, who was running second two weeks ago, has now dropped to 15%, and Paul captures 13% support from likely GOP primary voters nationwide. Perry was still in the race at that time but earns just four percent (4%). While Romney’s support is essentially unchanged, Gingrich’s jumped dramatically, up 11 points from 16% two weeks ago. This suggests that many voters are still looking for an alternative to Romney and currently see Gingrich as that candidate.

One group looking for that alternative is the Tea Party. Who are the Tea Party voters these days? Among other things we’ve found in our recent data: 59% are men, 41% women; 61% are over the age of 50, a bit older than the population at large, and they’re more closely affiliated with the GOP than they were when the movement first began nearly three years ago.

A generic Republican candidate continues to lead President Obama in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup as has been the case nearly every week since late May. Romney also remains the only named GOP hopeful who runs competitively against the president.

Gingrich is within single digits of Obama – 47% to 38% - in their latest matchup. Last week, the president held a similar 46% to 38% lead over Gingrich, but it was the first time since early December that the incumbent didn't post a double-digit lead over this Republican challenger.

The president has a 10-point lead over Santorum – 48% to 38% - in their most recent face-to-face matchup.

With several of Romney’s rivals questioning his tenure at the Bain Capital investment firm, voters are closely divided over whether his business career is a plus or a minus, but most Republicans see it as a plus. Additionally, a plurality of all voters think Romney would do a better job than Obama dealing with the economy.

Americans still put a lot more faith in the private sector than in government when it comes to making the economy work. Seventy percent (70%) of adults think a free market economy is better than one managed by the government.

But Americans give mixed marks to the type of capitalism practiced in this country. Just 34% view the U.S. economy as free market capitalism. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say the country has a system of crony capitalism in which the most successful businesses have a close relationship with influential government officials.

Most voters will continue to rely on either cable or traditional television news to stay up with politics this year, but the Internet will provide the election coverage for a quarter of the nation.

Republicans continue to hold a small lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot as they have virtually every week since June 2009.

More voters support a candidate who promises to raise taxes only on the rich over one who opposes all tax hikes, but roughly half feel tax increases of any kind would hurt the nation’s economy.

Concern that the government will do too much responding to the bad economy has reached its highest level in seven months after falling to a three-year low in December. Most voters (57%) also continue to think one of the things the government has already done - bail out banks, auto companies and insurance companies - was bad for the country.

The Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes ended the week just slightly below where they were a year ago. Two-out-of-three consumers and investors believe the country is currently in a recession.

Belief among homeowners that home values will increase during the next few years is the strongest it has been in a year, as is confidence that their homes are worth more than what they still owe. Twenty-one percent (21%) now believe their home will be worth more in a year, the highest result measured since February 2011. Still, 27% say their home will be worth less in a year’s time, while 51% expect its value to remain about the same. Forty-five percent (45%) believe their home will be worth more in five years, also the highest level of confidence in the past year.

Fifty percent (50%) of Americans think they will be paying higher interest rates a year from now. The number of Americans who predict higher interest rates is up nine points from December’s recent low of 41% but has mostly run in the 50s since mid-2009.

The national Occupy movement is the latest to question the fairness of U.S. society, but most Americans continue to reject that point of view. Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters think U.S. society is generally fair and decent. Just 29% disagree and think it is basically unfair and discriminatory.

Americans celebrated Martin Luther King, Jr. Day this past Monday and still hold an overwhelmingly favorable view of the murdered civil rights hero. But a plurality also continues to believe the federal holiday honoring King’s birthday is not good for the racial situation in this country.

Perceptions of race relations in the United States have grown a bit more negative. Thirty-three percent (33%) now believe race relations are getting better, but that’s down from 38% last January and the lowest finding in several years. Thirty-two percent (32%) think those relations are getting worse, while 29% say they’re about the same.

In other surveys last week:

-- Twenty-four percent (24%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, tying the highest level of confidence measured since the first week in July.

-- With the start of the New Year, voters are slightly more optimistic about the future of America than they have been for most of 2011. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the country's best days are in the future, up from 32% last month and the highest level measured since mid-February of last year. Forty-four percent (44%) feel America's best days are in the past, while another 18% are not sure

-- The Obama administration is reportedly considering negotiating with the fundamentalist Taliban to help bring the war in Afghanistan to an end, particularly following reports of Marines urinating on dead Taliban fighters. But just 17% of voters feel it’s possible negotiations with the Taliban could bring the war in Afghanistan to a satisfactory conclusion.

-- Most voters don’t expect economic sanctions to discourage Iran from continuing its development of nuclear weapons, but most also don’t support U.S. military action if those sanctions fail.

-- With Congress looking for ways to make substantial cuts in the federal budget, nearly half of voters continue to say it’s time for U.S. troops in Europe to come home.

-- Most voters continue to support immigration status checks on routine traffic stops and favor strict sanctions on employers who give illegal immigrants jobs.

-- A majority of Americans nationwide believe the current television ratings system does a satisfactory job of warning viewers of possible objectionable content, and half say they’re less likely to watch a program after such a warning.

[Rainbow Crow]

Forgive me for asking, but why are we talking about Rasmussen anyway? 4/5ths of every poll they do for the past few years (at least) is skewed in favor of Republicans as compared to every other polling body. Even Fox News consistently polls Republicans and Republican ideas lower than Rasmussen does. I have learned to regard them with a great deal of skepticism.

[Doug64]

That's probably because most polls go with "voters" while Rasmussen usually goes with "likely voters" - the result tends to be somewhat higher for Republicans than other polls, because a good-sized chunk of the Democratic base is less likely to vote. Since Rasmussen tends to be one of the more accurate polls when it comes to predicting election outcomes, I'd say the approach works well enough.

[Rainbow Crow]

I don't see that as a valid explanation because Rasmussen is not the only polling company to go for likely voters. More than half the polls I read are described as "likely voter" polls.

[Doug64]

Yet as best I know Rasmussen continues to be one of the more accurate polls as tested against actual elections.

[Doug64]

Actually got it in a little early this week, a miracle!

President Obama on Tuesday night delivered his final State of the Union speech before Election Day, and the public seems receptive to at least two of his major economic initiatives. At the same time, the race between the men who want his job has seesawed, with the latest numbers from Florida’s upcoming primary suggesting Newt Gingrich’s surge may have crested.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Likely U.S. Voters agree with the president’s proposal that wealthy Americans pay at least 30% of their income in federal taxes. But 49% also think federal, state and local governments combined shouldn’t take more than 30% of anyone’s income in taxes. These findings suggest that while voters feel generally that the wealthy aren’t paying their fair share, they remain more interested in fairness than in being punitive.

The president in his speech also called for corporate tax credits and tax reductions to encourage an increase in U.S. manufacturing jobs, and 55% of Americans agree that government funds should be used to subsidize U.S. manufacturers this way. An overwhelming 90% say it is at least somewhat important for the United States to have a major manufacturing and industrial base, but just 54% believe it’s at least somewhat likely the country will have that base once again.

Voters are less happy with Obama’s decision to delay the construction of an oil pipeline from Canada to Texas for environmental reasons. Supporters say the project will lessen America’s overseas oil dependence and create up to 20,000 new jobs. Fifty-six percent (56%) favor building the Keystone XL pipeline and think it will be good for the economy. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say creating new jobs is more important than environmental protection.

The president continues to endorse a path to economic recovery with government fully involved. The candidates seeking the Republican presidential nomination argue that it’s best to get the government out of the way. When it comes to money issues, voters still prefer the more conservative course. Forty-two percent (42%) say they are fiscal conservatives when it comes to issues such as taxes, government spending and business regulation. Just as many (42%) describe themselves as fiscal moderates. Only 11% are fiscal liberals. The gap remains much narrower when it comes to social issues such as abortion, public prayer and church-state topics.

How that budget will be handled in the years ahead may be determined in part by how Florida Republicans vote on Tuesday. Mitt Romney has jumped back ahead in the fevered Florida GOP Primary race with his support back to where it was before Gingrich’s big win last Saturday in South Carolina. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Wednesday night, shows Romney with 39% support to Gingrich’s 31%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earns 12%, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with nine percent (9%). Four days earlier, just after the South Carolina Primary, Gingrich led Romney 41% to 32%. Less than two weeks before that, coming off Romney’s decisive win in the New Hampshire Primary, it was Romney 41%, Gingrich 19% in Florida. Santorum’s and Paul’s support has remained largely the same throughout.

The latest results from Florida are a mirror image of the dynamic found the week before the South Carolina Primary. In the Palmetto State, Gingrich was trailing by 14 points on Monday, but following a strong debate performance he had a two-point lead by Wednesday. That 16-point turnaround seemed stunning at the time. Now, in Florida, it’s Romney’s turn. He trailed by nine points in the Sunshine State on Sunday but enjoyed a 17-point comeback by Wednesday.

The charges have been flying fast and furious about Gingrich’s marital and professional behavior and Mitt Romney’s taxes and business practices. But 68% of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide believe Gingrich is at least as ethical as most politicians, while 82% say the same of Romney. However, just nine percent (9%) now think Gingrich has the best personal character of the remaining major GOP hopefuls, placing him fourth out of four.

Still, Gingrich’s angry denial of the marital charges and his attack on the media for reporting it appears to have worked at least initially, helping to propel him to a big win in South Carolina and to jump ahead dramatically early in the week in the national GOP race. He’s suffered a lot of criticism from fellow Republicans this past week, however, so it will be interesting to see if his national lead like his lead in Florida begins to fade.

Evangelical Christians and Tea Party Republicans were critical to Gingrich’s South Carolina win. Whether he can hold that vote is an open question. After all, Americans believe overwhelmingly in the importance of marriage, and a sizable number continue to feel it’s too easy to get a divorce in this country.

But as Scott Rasmussen explains in his latest syndicated column, “Gingrich has benefited thus far from the fact that when it comes to ethics, voters always grade politicians on a curve. … Ironically, Rasmussen polling first identified how steep a curve is used to judge political ethics at the time Gingrich was trying to drag down President Bill Clinton on personal transgressions. In that case, and in just about every other political scandal since, most voters tend to believe that the politician in question is just doing what politicians do. It's a part of the political culture that voters would desperately like to see changed.”

While many pundits have taken to describing the race for the Republican nomination as a two-man competition between Romney and Gingrich, a third of GOP voters nationwide think it would be good for the party if someone else jumped into the contest.

Republicans lead again on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot as they have every week but one since June 2009.

Voters also continue to trust Republicans more than Democrats on the number one issue of the economy, but they now trust Democrats at least slightly more on five of the 10 most important issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. This is the first survey since May 2009 in which the GOP doesn't have an edge on a majority of the issues.

For the first time in nine months, more than half of Americans believe purchasing a home is the best investment for a family, but this finding is still well below results measured several years ago.

According to the Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes on Friday, 28% of consumers think the U.S. economy is getting better these days, up from 18% measured three months ago. Just over half (51%) feel the economy is getting worse. Among investors, 32% say economic conditions in the country are getting better, while 48% say they're getting worse.

While Americans worry about inflation in general, they agree that it’s getting cheaper to buy a congressman or governor. Thirty-five percent (35%) now think a contribution of $10,000 or less will influence one of these elected officials. Just 24% felt that was enough six years ago. A similar level of skepticism about the politicians is common across all partisan lines.

But then adults nationwide feel more strongly than ever that most members of Congress don’t play by the rules and want full disclosure when congressmen meet with regulators and other government officials.

Most Americans, regardless of political affiliation, think the country needs more campaign finance laws, but a plurality still opposes public financing of presidential elections. They’re evenly divided over whether incumbents should be banned from receiving campaign contributions of any kind.

In other surveys last week:

-- Twenty-six percent (26%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, the highest level of optimism measured in over seven months. But 67% still believe the country is heading down the wrong track.

-- Most voters still want to repeal the national health care law even though they’re not overly worried that it will force them to change their insurance coverage.

-- As insurgent violence in Iraq grows following the withdrawal of U.S. troops, voters’ perceptions that the situation there will get better have fallen to an all-time low. There's similar pessimism about Afghanistan, but voters are still relatively confident that the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror.

-- Adults nationwide overwhelmingly believe that it is important for children to grow up in a home with both parents and feel those children have an advantage over those who grow up in a single-parent home.

-- Americans still place high importance on buying U.S.-made products, but most would go with a foreign product if it’s cheaper and better than its American counterpart.

-- Congress’ Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) is in limbo in the face of strong opposition from Internet giants like Google and Wikipedia fearful of government censorship. Most voters agree that online piracy of films is theft, but they, too, are more concerned about Internet censorship than about someone downloading movies without paying for them.

-- When it comes to immigration reform, most voters continue to feel border security should be the main focus but also think it’s important to create a welcoming policy that excludes only threats to society.

-- While Americans seem to be showing a bit more confidence in the economy, their eating habits haven't changed much. Forty-five percent (45%) are dining out less often than they were six months ago. That finding has changed little since July, but it’s a big improvement from November 2008 just after the Wall Street meltdown when 57% said they were eating out less.

-- Increasing numbers of restaurants around the country are disclosing nutritional information on their menus, and 66% of American Adults are at least somewhat confident in the accuracy of that information.

[Doug64]

A little late, but not as big a catch this week:

Mitt Romney’s victory in Florida put him back on top as the clear frontrunner in the race for the GOP nomination. Rasmussen Reports and others had accurately projected Romney’s victory in advance but the fact that he got more votes than Gingrich and Santorum combined still caught many observers off guard.

Romney is expected to win big in Nevada today and has leads in the next two primary states—Michigan and Arizona. A commentary by Larry Sabato and his colleagues, however, suggests, that the race for the Republican nomination is unlikely to end any time soon. Michael Barone adds that Romney faces tough opponents in a long war.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported this week that the federal budget deficit is projected to reach $1.1 trillion in 2012. That number is troubling enough but the reality is much worse. The United States will actually go about $4 trillion further in debt during the year.

While much attention has been focused on the GOP race, the current trends may be President Obama’s friend. For the first time in more than two years, Democrats have a lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. The president’s Full-Month Approval Rating reached its highest level since June and 48% give Obama positive marks on leadership.

Driving this is improving consumer confidence and improved confidence in the labor market. The Rasmussen Employment Index moved up to a 15-month high. Also, 29% now say the U.S. is heading in the right direction. That’s up from 24% a month ago and 16% the month before that.

One trend not working in the president’s favor is that that the number of people who consider themselves Democrats has fallen to a new low.

This weekend, more people will be watching football than politics. Fans are evenly divided as to whether the Giants or Patriots will win this epic showdown. But Super Bowl viewers don’t think Madonna’s a good choice for the halftime show.

Other highlights from this past week:

77% Know Someone Out of Work and Looking For A Job

69% Oppose Efforts to Increase Those on Food Stamps

39% Say Unions Bad for Business, 31% Say Good

53% Favor Fingerprinting Requirement For Food Stamp Applicants

79% Give Their Boss Positive Marks

69% Say Domestic Animals Are Treated Well In The U.S.

5% Say Congress Doing Good or Excellent Job

74% Favor Right-to-Work Law Eliminating Mandatory Union Dues

52% Say Overhaul of All Health Care Costs Needed to Salvage Medicare

81% Describe Their Workplace As Positive

45% Say Too Many GOP Debates, Mostly Useless

45% Think Free Trade Good for U.S., 28% Disagree

[Rainbow Crow]

Another problem with Rasmussen is their oddly worded and phrased questions. 79% "give their boss positive marks." What does that have to do with politics? A basic understanding of psychology makes that a pretty meaningless question.

53% favor fingerprinting requirements for food stamp applicants. What a nuanced subject. Pretty much right down the middle, probably because few understood it.

They might as well put the horoscope into these polls.

[Doug64]

And we're back to a more normal number of polls.

Here we go again. Another Republican surges up out of the pack to challenge Mitt Romney’s grip on the party’s presidential nomination. Meanwhile, President Obama appears to have helped his rivals with a bad political call forcing Catholic institutions to go against their basic beliefs and pay for contraception.

In a survey taken Monday evening, Romney reclaimed the lead in the national race for the Republican presidential nomination, jumping ahead of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 34% to 27%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earned 18% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul ran last with 11%.

Then the following day Santorum won the trifecta, sweeping caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado and a non-binding primary in Missouri. His numbers nationally and in other states began to move, reinforcing that Romney has yet to seal the deal with many Republican voters. Still, 75% of those voters predicted early in the week that Romney will be the ultimate nominee, but it will be interesting to see if Romney holds on to the leads he has in the next primary states of Arizona and Michigan.

Since Tuesday, after all, there’s been an interesting development in our daily matchups with the president. Santorum runs slightly stronger against Obama than Romney does.

Similarly, late in the week, the former Pennsylvania senator performed better one-on-one against the president than Romney did in surveys in the key electoral states of Ohio and Florida. A sign of things to come? We’ll see.

The president, meanwhile, posted a 50% to 40% lead over Romney at one point this past week. It was his best showing against the former Massachusetts governor in over a year of surveys. Obama’s job approval numbers continue to improve, and other economic and social indicators suggest that Americans are feeling a little better about the president and things in general these days.

Voter confidence in Obama’s handling of the economy is at its highest level in a year’s time. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say the country is heading in the right direction, unchanged from last week and the highest level of optimism measured in weekly tracking since May of last year. But 63%, of course, still say the country is headed down the wrong track.

The Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Indexes also continue to show a higher level of confidence among these groups than has been experienced in some time.

But the president dinged his improving political fortunes with a new policy stemming from his unpopular national health care bill. That policy forces Catholic institutions to pay for birth control measures that run contrary to the church’s moral teachings and has prompted an angry backlash from the Catholic hierarchy and others.

Half (50%) of voters do not agree with the administration’s action forcing Catholic institutions to pay for birth control measures they morally oppose. Thirty-nine percent (39%) approve of the policy. By week’s end, the president announced “an accommodation” that would ease the offending requirement.

Scott Rasmussen explores the political downside for the president in his latest column. “The issue puts the president's unpopular health care law back in the news,” he writes. “Voters already believe that law will increase the cost of health care, and most also believe the decision on contraceptive coverage will add even more costs.”

Remember, most voters still favor repeal of the health care law, the president’s signature legislative achievement.

Voters responded much more favorably to the president’s announcement this week that the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan will be ended by the middle of next year. Most strongly favor that decision and think there’s a good chance it will succeed.

Just over half (51%) of Americans nationwide also like the president’s proposal to boost government funding to increase the number and quality of math and science teachers, but they agree that teaching now is not a desirable profession to go into.

Rasmussen Reports stepped up its state polling this week and finds that most voters in Michigan like the job the president is doing. They give mixed marks to their new governor, Republican Rick Snyder, despite his announcement this week that as a result of his budget-cutting measures the state now has a $457 million surplus.

Many Democrats have high hopes for the Southwest in Election 2012, but the president has an uphill fight in Arizona where most voters disapprove of the way he’s done his job.

The president still has some troubling economic concerns to deal with. Despite the Federal Reserve's insistence that inflation is under control, for example, Americans continue to say overwhelmingly that they are paying more for groceries than they were a year ago and they expect to be paying even more a year from now. Most Americans also remain unsure about the stability of banks in this country.

Congress will soon be battling over budget issues again which will put the president’s pro-government approach in stark contrast to the Republican agenda of less government and less spending.

It’s disturbing to note that fewer than half of voters nationwide now believe elections are generally fair. Most think the system is rigged to benefit incumbents in Congress.

Speaking of Congress, Republicans have regained the lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, Feb. 5. Democrats led the GOP for the first time in roughly two-and-a-half years the previous week. Prior to that, Republicans led on the ballot every week but one since June 2009.

Favorability ratings for the top four congressional leaders have improved slightly from last month’s all-time lows but are still far from positive.

With Congress’ job approval ratings still in the cellar, it may come as no surprise that a plurality (43%) of voters nationwide believes a group of people randomly selected from a telephone book would do a better job than the current legislators. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree, while another 19% are not sure.

In other surveys last week:

-- Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown has a narrow 44% to 40% lead over Republican challenger Josh Mandel in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at Ohio’s 2012 race for the U.S. Senate.

-- More Americans than ever think the federal government should do nothing when it comes to those who are unemployed for an extended period of time. At the same time, the number of adults who believe in ongoing government support for the unemployed is at its lowest level yet.

-- Voters nationwide remain firmly convinced that Iran is likely to develop a nuclear weapon in the near future and will use it against Israel. Forty-eight percent (48%) want the United States to help Israel if it decides to attack Iran.

-- Most Americans continue to view teachers’ unions negatively and believe even more strongly that it's too hard to get rid of bad teachers.

-- With political chaos continuing in Egypt and Libya, voters are now evenly divided over whether the political changes from last year’s so-called “Arab Spring” are good or bad for the United States. Most favor an end to long-standing U.S. aid to Egypt.

-- Most Americans rarely take a trip to the theater to see a movie, preferring instead to watch films in the comfort of their own home.

-- Sixty-three percent (63%) of Americans planned to watch the rematch between the New York Giants and New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI last Sunday. Forty-four percent (44%) of those who planned to watch correctly predicted the Giants would win. Forty percent (40%) expected a Patriots’ victory.

[Doug64]

The economy is looking up a bit, and what do you know, so are Obama's numbers, a bit.

Politics is often a game of inches, especially when you’ve got a contest like this year’s for the White House. Gains in the economy or even perceptions that it’s improving could be enough to get President Obama across the finish line ahead of his Republican opponent.

For the first time in over two years, the number of Americans who believe the economy will be stronger one year from now is slightly higher than the number who expect it to be weaker. Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe the economy will be stronger in one year, up 10 points from November’s all-time low of 27%, while 35% expect it to be weaker a year from now.

The Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes show a continuing gain in confidence among both groups, compared to a year ago.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction. That’s the highest level of optimism since April 2010. Of course, 59% still think the country is heading down the wrong track, but that's the lowest level of pessimism measured since early September 2009.

By the same token, just 37% say the country’s best days are in the future. Forty-six percent (46%) feel America’s best days are in the past, and 17% are not sure. These numbers have changed little for months.

But Americans are less inclined to believe a 1930s-like depression is in the cards, even if most don’t expect the housing or stock markets to make a full recovery anytime soon.

Forty-six percent (46%) now believe it is possible for anyone who really wants to work to find a job. That’s the highest level of confidence measured since May 2009. Thirty-seven percent (37%) don't think it’s possible for anyone who wants a job to find employment, down from 42% three months ago and tying the lowest level ever measured. Another 17% are undecided.

Americans' interest in a new car is slightly higher than it has been over the last two years. Twenty-eight percent (28%) are at least somewhat likely to buy or lease a car in the next year, including 14% who are Very Likely to do so.

Amidst reports that the car industry is experiencing a modest rebound in sales, support for the perennially unpopular government bailouts has risen slightly to 32%, its highest level in three years of regular tracking. Most voters (51%) still think they were a bad idea. At the same time, more Americans than ever (76%) have a favorable opinion of Ford, the one Big Three automaker who didn't need a taxpayer bailout to stay in business. General Motors is a distant second, with 51% of Americans sharing a favorable opinion of the biggest bailout recipient. Just 43% have a favorable opinion of Chrysler.

Take the gains in economic perception, modest as they may be, and what do you find: The president’s job approval ratings also have been improving in recent weeks, and he now routinely outdistances all of his potential Republican challengers.

At least one group, however, remains unhappy with the president. Catholics strongly disapprove of the job Obama is doing as the debate continues over his administration’s new policy forcing Catholic institutions to pay for contraception they morally oppose.

Outside of Washington, the race to challenge the president in the fall continues to follow its unpredictable course. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum has now bounced to a 12-point lead over Mitt Romney – 39% to 27% - in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich follows from a distance with 15% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with 10%. Just over a week earlier, it was Romney leading the pack with 34% after his win in the Florida Primary. But then Santorum swept GOP caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota and a non-binding primary in Missouri as Gingrich continued to stumble in the race to be the conservative alternative to Romney.

Perhaps more tellingly, Santorum now trounces Romney 55% to 34% in a one-on-one matchup among likely GOP primary voters. This is the first time any challenger has led Romney nationally in a head-to-head matchup.

Like Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Gingrich before him, Santorum has emerged as the leading anti-Romney candidate and taken the lead in the GOP race. Now the question is will he, unlike his predecessors, be able to hold onto that lead? Scott Rasmussen notes in his latest column that “while it's impossible to predict what will happen in this volatile election season, the data suggests that Santorum might be more of a challenge for Romney than earlier flavors of the month.”

Next up for the GOP contenders are February 28 primaries in Arizona and Michigan. The Arizona Republican Primary race has tightened dramatically over the past two weeks, but Romney remains in first place with Santorum close behind. Romney earns 39% support to Santorum’s 31%.

In Romney’s native state of Michigan, Santorum now has a 35% to 32% lead over the former Massachusetts governor. That’s an 18-point jump in support for Santorum from less than two weeks earlier. In both upcoming primary states, Gingrich and Paul run far behind.

Ohio is one of the big electoral prizes in the Super Tuesday primaries on March 6, and new numbers out of the Buckeye State should send a chill through the Romney camp. Santorum leads Romney by a near two-to-one margin – 42% to 24% - among likely Ohio Republican Primary voters. Take the other candidates out of the mix, and Santorum leads Romney by even more – 58% to 30%. Still, 47% of these voters say they could yet change their minds.

Voters in Ohio have decidedly mixed feelings about both Obama and Republican Governor John Kasich these days. But the president far outdistances his two likeliest GOP opponents in California and New Mexico.

This November, 33 U.S. Senate seats also will be on the line, and Democrats have more than twice as many seats they now hold at stake compared to seats with Republican incumbents. Rasmussen Reports has stepped up the pace of polling in those states to see how those Senate races are stacking up.

Republican Congressman Connie Mack now runs dead even with incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in Florida’s 2012 U.S. Senate race, each with 41% support. But Nelson outdistances two other potential GOP challengers, former Senator George LeMieux and businessman Mike McCalister.

The first Rasmussen Reports survey of the U.S. Senate race in New Mexico shows a tight contest between former Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson and her two likeliest Democratic challengers, Martin Heinrich and Hector Balderas.

Republicans hold a modest lead again this week on the Generic Congressional Ballot. Democrats led the GOP for the first time in roughly two-and-a-half years two weeks earlier.

With job approval ratings for the current Congress at all-time lows, more voters than ever see the Republican agenda in Congress as extreme. But voters are only slightly less critical of congressional Democrats.

Most voters still think Republicans and Democrats in Congress are out of touch with their respective party bases, but now they believe it’s more important for the GOP to work with the president than to stand on principle. That’s similar to how the majority felt right after Obama’s election in November 2008, but by January 2010 with hotly contested midterm elections coming in the fall, 53% rated standing for what the party believes in as more important.

The president, in his latest budget released this past week calls for a modest pay increase for federal workers. But 63% of voters believe cutting the federal payroll is better for the economy. Only 18% say giving all federal workers a modest raise is the better option, but just as many (19%) are not sure.

Voters appear to be showing a little less resistance to tax increases, and for the first time ever a majority (52%) would support a candidate who promised to raise taxes only on the wealthy over one who was against all tax increases.

In other surveys last week:

-- Voters strongly approve of the president’s decision to use unmanned drones to go after terrorists, but they're much less excited about the use of such aircraft for surveillance on the home front.

-- Most voters continue to have a favorable opinion of Social Security, but they also don't believe the government retirement system will pay all their promised benefits.

-- Most Americans think the Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts are good for young people but say it's harder to get them involved in scouting these days.

-- The majority of adults continue to feel that violence in movies is reflected in real life and believe movies have a negative impact on society.

-- Defense Secretary Leon Panetta who recently announced significant cuts to the defense budget and plans for the United States to end its combat role in Afghanistan earlier than scheduled is a bit more recognizable to voters these days. So far, this increased awareness has mostly worked in his favor, although Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the most popular member of the Obama Cabinet.

-- Ohio voters, compared to voters nationwide, have a more favorable opinion of Social Security but view Medicare about the same.