Trump's Dumb Economics - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By jimjam
#14903154
About a year ago amidst the hysteria surrounding Trump's win I tried to predict the future of his administration. Predicting the future is pretty much an impossible job but it is somewhat easier when operating in the realm of economics. Economics (money) closely mirrors human behavior. The dynamics are relatively simple. Money is an addictive substance. The more you have, the more comfort and pleasure you get. Another consideration that facilitates the prediction of economic "history" is the truism that history repeats itself. This is not the fashionable Trump bashing. I am attempting to be empirical. An elusive target for sure but, I am trying.
Trump is not stupid and he is very successful. He became president .... something a moron cannot do. Here is the thing. He is a gut/instinct operator. Generally does not "need" advice. #one. He is adept at operating in a rather confined and small environment surrounded by family and faithful people who know not to differ from him. #two. He is now performing in a greatly different economic environment. National and, more significantly, global environment. He being rather inflexible and over confident, I surmised would do poorly in a world economic environment. He is still playing to his vaunted "base". His base hardly covers the globe. China has been screwing steel workers in Ohio. True. Solution: slap a tariff on Chinese steel which will impede the flow of steel into America. True. No way of course will China be passive to this. There is a big world out there and China is going to dominate it with their strategic economic plan that looks years ahead.
It is a real possibility as they buy more soybeans from Brazil,more planes from Europe they sell them more television sets. We lose jobs in South Carolina , Iowa and our consumer products become far more expensive. This in turn hurts the retail sector, etc, etc.
Yes we may produce more TV sets here , solar panels, shoes etc but they are going to be more expensive with no opportunity for export , we are simply not compeititive.
How can we be, our infrastructure is inadequate, our education system totally broken , our health care costs thrust a large cost on our commercial sector.
I have travelled in Asia , they are light years ahead in all these areas.

The world economic system is not perfect but ....... it is working. Trump's actions are a threat to the functioning of the world economic order. Businessmen prefer predictability which generally assures safety of their assets. Trump's methods which have produced success in his confined world involved unpredictability. These methods will, obviously, cause unpredictability in the world economic system. Businessmen will withdraw their money from the economic system and put it under their bed. Look at the current stock market and see this process starting. We are not there yet but it seems the process has begun.

This looks like Smoot-Hawley redux and, as it seems, Trump is no student of history. His knowledge base appears to be confined to Fox "news" on tv.

Stay tuned, this will be interesting.
Last edited by jimjam on 04 Apr 2018 20:50, edited 1 time in total.
#14903155
@jimjam
Have you noticed the world still has a whole lot of desperately poor people?
The truth is we can only support so many people at a US level in the world. A global free economy means we equalize wealth distribution, which sounds like a good thing. The truth is equalized wealth means a dramatic drop in the US standard of living.
Trump’s policies are simply “we are going to keep our unequal share of the wealth”.
It sounds terrible to an idealist, but it is very pragmatic. To all go down in poverty together is not a noble goal.
#14903160
jimjam wrote:Trump's actions are a threat to the functioning of the world economic order.

Which is currently sucking the life out of the US, except for high tech where I work.

jimjam wrote:Businessmen prefer predictability which generally assures safety of their assets.

That is, they prefer to assure the security of their factories in China that replaced the factories they shut down in Ohio.

jimjam wrote:Businessmen will withdraw their money from the economic system and put it under their bed.

Interest rates are too low for that to happen.
#14903167
That is, they prefer to assure the security of their factories in China that replaced the factories they shut down in Ohio.

Welcome to capitalism, blackjack. :)
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By Zamuel
#14903172
jimjam wrote:There is a big world out there and China is going to dominate it with their strategic economic plan that looks years ahead.

Hmmmm .... jimjam, I think you might want to look closely at your subject title ... Calling Trump dumb and then misspelling economics? Your're better than that.

Aside from that please consider that China's "future" strategy requires more than just economics. In particular it requires stable social function (happy, employed, workers) and relies on the maintenance of a modern standard of living. Trump is definitely threatening those factors.

It occurs to me that "undoing" the advances the world has made (which seems to be his thing) requires the destabilization of China and a return to international tensions we thought we had resolved.

Are trade deficits the real issue? Or is reversing globalization the goal? I don't really think Trump is the "author" of this gambit. I suspect there is a well prepared master plan unfolding.

Zam
#14903193
Zamuel wrote:Hmmmm .... jimjam, I think you might want to look closely at your subject title ... Calling Trump dumb and then misspelling economics? Your're better than that.


:lol: Point well taken. I do however have 2 excuses: My wife was rushing me out the door (not to say that I am not master of my household :lol: ) and some keys on my laptop stick.

Also I said of Trump : "Trump is not stupid and he is very successful. He became president .... something a moron cannot do. "

blackjack21 wrote:Which is currently sucking the life out of the US, except for high tech where I work.

Well, let's suck some more life out of the US ... starting with soybeans in the heart of Trump country and wine in the Napa valley. And lot's more. Where Trump's erratic behavior will lead, nobody knows.

blackjack21 wrote:That is, they prefer to assure the security of their factories in China that replaced the factories they shut down in Ohio.


Ummm .............. the world economy is much larger than the Trump Tower or, for that matter, Ohio.

blackjack21 wrote:Interest rates are too low for that to happen


Once again, this is rather my myopic. Interest rates are not the only option and ......... zero interest rates sure as hell are better than an out and out loss.

No offense #21 but I think that if Trump advocated a transfer of the contents (if any exist) of Fort Knox to Luxemburg, I suspect you would be able to place this move into a good light.
#14903196
One Degree wrote:Have you noticed the world still has a whole lot of desperately poor people?


Have you notice under Republicans that number increase more compare to Democrats?

Potemkin wrote:Welcome to capitalism, blackjack. :)


The man only now realizing that voting for a party that scapegoats "welfare queens"(Blacks) over economics wasn't a sound investment. :D


blackjack21 wrote:Which is currently sucking the life out of the US, except for high tech where I work.


Oh automation will come for your job before the Coal miners.

One Degree wrote:To all go down in poverty together is not a noble goal.


Why not misery loves company, whites gladly made Blacks poor cause they were doing better than them. Hell we did it to each other during slavery. Who cares if majority of whites were probably more poor than some slaves at least their skin was all they needed.
#14903211
Potemkin wrote:Welcome to capitalism, blackjack. :)


While I esteem both you, Potemkin, and Blackjack21, a good deal, I feel obligated to point out that Blackjack21 is doing what is most apparently rational of an economic decision to him. However, your point is well taken, as I believe that it is the System, Capitalism itself, that is stupid and flawed. Everyone, including President Trump, does what they think best under the parameters of a society that is the product of it's economy. And that my friend is precisely the problem, that President Trump, the billionaire businessman turned President of the United States, believes in the Capitalism that has worked out so well for himself, his family, and his circle of friends and associates. Therefore at this late stage, there will be wars both economic and military to save the American brand and American way of life, and of course, the endless war against the working classes.
#14903218
annatar1914 wrote:While I esteem both you, Potemkin, and Blackjack21, a good deal


Why? Blackjack21 is just a dogwhistling racist. He just want to destroy USA cause a Black man tainted the highest office in the country.

annatar1914 wrote: Blackjack21 is doing what is most apparently rational of an economic decision to him.


He was a republican til 06, he voted for cultural reasons not economical. Hell he criticized FDR(rightly so may I add).
#14903220
Libertarian353 wrote:Why? Blackjack21 is just a dogwhistling racist. He just want to destroy USA cause a Black man tainted the highest office in the country.



He was a republican til 06, he voted for cultural reasons not economical. Hell he criticized FDR(rightly so may I add).


are in a position to criticize Blackjack21 because he thrives in a system that he perfectly understands, a system that requires a certain measure of Statism to even exist.

You, even if you are quite intelligent and a super guy personally I'm sure, espouse a political philosophy that values Capitalism so much that it would deign to reduce the State to a vestigial appendage to ''get out of the way'' of a mythical totally free-enterprise Capitalism.
#14903221
oops, hit the wrong button while editing. What I meant was that your criticism of Blackjack is unjustified because he understands what Capitalism needs, while you as a Libertarian do not.
#14903222
annatar1914 wrote:are in a position to criticize Blackjack21 because he thrives in a system that he perfectly understands, a system that requires a certain measure of Statism to even exist.

You, even if you are quite intelligent and a super guy personally I'm sure, espouse a political philosophy that values Capitalism so much that it would deign to reduce the State to a vestigial appendage to ''get out of the way'' of a mythical totally free-enterprise Capitalism.


Don't take @Libertarian353, too seriously with his "political claims" he is actually a SJW racial agitator disguised as a libertarian because his real identity is likely EM (Ethiopian Monarchist) who was kicked out of PoFo for his racial agitating and ad-hominem attacks.

Besides, he claims to be an Anarcho-Capitalist and a Georgist, which is a contradiction.

Anarcho-Capitalism is private property absolutism, Georgism believes property should be collectively owned and only labor privately retained. They are freakin' opposites. :lol:
#14903224
Victoribus Spolia wrote:Don't take @Libertarian353, too seriously with his "political claims" he is actually a SJW racial agitator disguised as a libertarian because his real identity is likely EM (Ethiopian Monarchist) who was kicked out of PoFo for his racial agitating and ad-hominem attacks.

Besides, he claims to be an Anarcho-Capitalist and a Georgist, which is a contradiction.

Anarcho-Capitalism is private property absolutism, Georgism believes property should be collectively owned and only labor privately retained. They are freakin' opposites. :lol:


Ah, I remember ''Ethiopian Monarchist'' :lol:

Btw, I criticize Libertarianism because it is more logical to be an Anarcho-Capitalist than to be one who retains the State as some sort of afterthought.
#14903225
annatar1914 wrote:I criticize Libertarianism because it is more logical to be an Anarcho-Capitalist than to be one who retains the State as some sort of afterthought.


Agreed.
#14903226
Victoribus Spolia wrote:Agreed.


I'll go even further, VS, and posit that it is Anarcho-Capitalism that will be the final phase of Capitalism in it's Imperialist period. Furthermore, I can show the earliest trends of Anarcho-Capitalism not in Libertarianism, but on the practical level, in Fascism. Mind you, I'm not saying anything ad hominem or emotionally loaded, but just facts, things I and a few others I've read that I notice from history.

We'll have to discuss this shortly, I think :D
#14903228
annatar1914 wrote:Besides, he claims to be an Anarcho-Capitalist and a Georgist, which is a contradiction.


Not necessarily Georgism might play a role in HOAs/private cities. Where you could set up contractual land fees to effectively be LVTs in order to disincentivize idle land use.

Victoribus Spolia wrote:Don't take @Libertarian353, too seriously with his "political claims" he is actually a SJW racial agitator disguised as a libertarian because his real identity is likely EM (Ethiopian Monarchist) who was kicked out of PoFo for his racial agitating and ad-hominem attacks.


I'm so good at making fun of white victimization pofos that I'm a Black supremacist larper portraying as a Ancap from Oregon? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


Also I'm not an SJW, but I'm glad that my posts annoy you.
#14903229
annatar1914 wrote:Ah, I remember ''Ethiopian Monarchist'' :lol:


Ignore him, he and the right wing pofo do the republican tactic, accusing me of being a Black supremacist. My name is Danny Wolff, I'm from Eugene, Oregon. I'm Ancap, I love God, Bacon and Guns. :lol:
#14903233
Libertarian353 wrote:Ignore him, he and the right wing pofo do the republican tactic, accusing me of being a Black supremacist. My name is Danny Wolff, I'm from Eugene, Oregon. I'm Ancap, I love God, Bacon and Guns. :lol:


Trying too hard there, ''Danny'' ;) . God of course is wonderful, Bacon is terrible, guns are great because they mean potential revolution, but you're an Ancap, like Victoribus? :eh:

Besides, as I said before, you're in no position to attack Blackjack21 for his ideology because it at least does him and his well, and Victoribus Spolia has at least an internal consistency to his ideology that I have not seen in yours.
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