SpecialOlympian wrote:Despite the hardon rightwingers have for this delusion, exemplified by an astroturfed movement called #walkaway run by white people pretending to be black, it will not happen because the GOP is the party of racism.
If anything, in 5-10 years the GOP will just be openly using terms like white supremacy. Which they already are with Representative Steve King.
Last time you said something like this to me, you refused to aknowledge that Trump has a chance to win the election. I told you that his chances are pretty okay and at the time of the election he was very lucky to push his chances over the top.
Now, i do not know if you will listen but lets give it a try.
So first of all, i work under the assumption that Trump is not an abnormality of some sort. Trump-esque redefinement of the republican party is here to stay. Those are pretty big assumptions but there are some factors to indicate that. Those factors are 1) Country is divided because both parties lost their track 2) Last election cycle around 40 moderate republicans basically retired or didn't want to continue with politics. Trumpness has de facto taken over the party just many people do not want to admit it yet.
Now what i mean by country is divided and lost their track? Both parties are having major issues either in cohesiveness or because they can't even agree inside themselves on what to do or just because they think they won't be able to win anything after 10 years. That is why the country is in such a partisan situation. Nobody really knows what they want so can't get support for it in mass.
Lets examine the democrats(Defaults before Trump). Who exactly vote for democrats:
1) African Americans
2) Gay
3) Greens
4) Unions
5) Pro-choice
6) Socialistic Bernie Sanders types.
7) Young ones (younger than 25ish-30ish)
Women (i guess unmarried women would be the correct term here)
Who vote for Republicans(Defaults before Trump):
1) Business
2) Fiscalists
3) National Security crowd
4) Evangelicals
5) Populists (Racists are here SO, so don't bother trolling)
6) Pro-Lifers
Catholics and Hispanics are swing voters.
Now i am not sure why the republican party shifted with Trump. May be technology developed, may be they think that they are loosing demographic wise and it won't be enough, may be because new finance laws appeared in 2016 that are screwing up the business side and now they want to kick them out and compensate, may be everything together.
I have an idea why Democrats are shifting and having issues though. The problem with the democratic backbone is that different groups want different things. Classical democratic backbone is larger than republican backbone but disunited. African Americans and Gays have very different outlook on life. African americans are more socially conservative and economically pro-Big government while gays are more economically and socially libertarian(Don't interfere with my social life and don't tax me to death). Greens and the Unions have very different opinions on industrial policy that can not be merged together. Socialists and younger crowd have different view on free education and free healthcare compared to unmarried women. So the last 2 democratic winning presidents are those that actually won because of their Charisma(Clinton and Obama). It is very hard for a Democratic candidate to run on issues and actually win because you will disunite your party in the process. (I am not saying they don't have any programs, i am just saying that they run on Charisma more than a program in itself)
Now having said that, things moved with Trump being elected and all of the sudden the groupings changed. Trump reshaped the electoral map for the Republican party. It is not done fully but i can see to a degree where he wants to go or just the wind is taking him.
So basically right now Trump is aiming for:
1) Pro-Lifers
2) Evangelicals
3) Populists
4) Catholics
5) Unions
6) Hispanics to a large degree.
All of the groups above besides hispanics(hard to pin them down, they are mostly in the middle of it, like dead centre) are located somewhere in the social conservative/economicly pro-government spectrum. But there is also 1 more group that is located there: African Americans. So although Trump is not targeting them, over the next 6-10 if this keeps on track and Republicans manage to beat their Racism to a degree, African Americans will become part of the Republican backbone. Unions love Trumps anti-immigration rhetoric. It already swinging them to the Republican side to a great degree.
While on the other hand what is left to the democrats? What slice of the pie will they get. Probably something like:
1) Socialists
2) Greens
3) Young ones
4) Pro-choice
5) Single Women
6) Gay
7) Business/Fiscalists
National Security crowd.
Most of the ones above are more socially libertarian but still are spread out very heavily on the Pro-Business or Pro-Government/Big government spectrum. One thing i can say is that Hispanics will probably remain swing voters and Business/Fiscalists might remain swing voters. But again, for business there is no ally besides the democrats. Same can be said about National Security crowd. Trumpesque isolationism/anti-immigration policies is something that business and national security types fucking hate.
Well something along those lines SO.