I wish I had shorted it, but being completely out of the market by the beginning of October is sweet enough for me.
I am not completely out but I am mostly out. So far so good.
McConnell did not put the house bill up for a vote for three reasons. First, and most important, is that he probably did not have the votes. Why? Reason number two. The wall is a political looser with independents. Less than 1/3 of them want it. Don't think he is not all over the polls. Third. It is a horrible idea. It would be scandalously expensive. It would be an ecological disaster. And it wouldn't work.
But consider this. Suppose they gave Trump his wall. About 25 billion dollars for it. Would that benefit them politically? Well. Clearly with independents and democrats, no. But how about their all-important "base". The wall is popular with 80% of republicans. What about them? Don't they elect republican politicians? Actually not so much. They are only 25% of the electorate. They must have independents and Dixiecrats to win anywhere.
Trump himself probably doesn't really want the wall. He needs it to excite his base. The wall is far more valuable to Trump unbuilt than it ever will be once started. Once building starts there will be no good news for him at all. Just bad press about every setback and every dead rabbit.
McConnell and the republican leadership are faced with another problem though. How to keep Trump off of the ballot in 2020. Giving him victories would not help them do that. It is fairly sure that the republicans will keep the senate in 2020. The thing most likely to knock them off of that fence is having Trump in the White House pulling is silly shenanigans. So, it seems to me, that McConnell did exactly what an establishment republican would do. He went with the votes.
We will see what happens with the democrat control of the house. Trump is in for a shit ton of trouble. If you think he is defensive now, wait until the Dems start releasing documents. As BJ said, Trump could double-down on his populist message and start declassifying documents which could throw establishment types into full blown defensive mode. Any way it comes down though, denying Trump the wall makes total political sense. And in a rare confluence of interests, it makes sense for both parties.
Note to Hindsite. Trump lied to you. He said "Mexico will pay for the wall". Did you not believe him in the first place? Do you think he was lying? If not, do you think he was just stupid in thinking they would? Or do you not care? Are you curious why Trump imported unskilled labor for Mar Lago rather than pay US workers a few extra dollars an hour? I thought not.