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By jimjam
#14985849
Last week, 56% of respondents in an ABC News/Washington Post poll said they definitely would not vote for Trump.
#14985850
jimjam wrote:Last week, 56% of respondents in an ABC News/Washington Post poll said they definitely would not vote for Trump.


Well since it only took 26% of eligible voters to make him president of the united states, I don't see anything especially impressive about that statistic.

when that number gets up to 75%, then we'll talk.


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By Beren
#14985853
Victoribus Spolia wrote:Well since it only took 26% of eligible voters to make him president of the united states, I don't see anything especially impressive about that statistic.

when that number gets up to 75%, then we'll talk.

The impressive thing about that is that it's an indicator like the approval rating, which is especially bad for Trump too.

When that number gets up to 75%, then Trump will be lynched. :lol:
#14985864
Beren wrote:The impressive thing about that is that it's an indicator like the approval rating, which is especially bad for Trump too.When that number gets up to 75%, then Trump will be lynched.


Well Republicans still approve of him at a rate of 87% or more, which is far more important than a general poll anyway.

After all, its very hard to flip democrats or republicans to the other team anymore, and there are very few independnets anymore these days that aren't basically either republicans or democrats who are just ashamed of the label.

Not to mention, many people who hated trump still voted for the man because they hated hillary more or were single-issue voters like the evangelicals who will vote straight R because of the abortion issue.

I mean, we'll see that happens and by 2020 I don't expect that i'll even participate in elections at all anymore, but i'm a bit too cynical to take polling too seriously after what we've seen in the recent past.

The weaponization and manipulation of information has made me a permanent skeptic.

Likewise, even if we assume everything as true regarding Trump's decline amongst the population, this can only be a hopeful sign if the Democrats don't entirely fuck up by running a candidate that either alienates the hard-left of the party (like what happened in 2016) or run someone so radical that it galvinizes and reinvigorates Trump's base; which, in reality is a line too narrow for the the DNC to walk in my opinion, they won't be able to do both of those things, it will be one or the other and they will likely malfunction like they did before.

Likewise, I think Trump is going to dominate his opponents right out the gate, his commentary and twittering on the DNC primaries will drive the narrative and poison-the-well for the entire field, he will be the first sitting president to do this and by doing so he might just sail into a second term.
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By Beren
#14985869
Victoribus Spolia wrote:Well Republicans still approve of him at a rate of 87% or more, which is far more important than a general poll anyway.

Sure, Republicans will go for him, but I don't see how that would be enough for him to get reelected in 2020. The especially bad thing about his approval is that his net approval rating hasn't been able to be positive almost since the very moment he swore in, and that doesn't seem to ever change, which is unprecedented. It's like he's been drowning since he jumped into the presidency. If beating Hillary was a real feat in 2016, what miracle will he need in 2020? Does he count on Kim Jong-un's good will perhaps? :lol:
#14985871
Beren wrote:Sure, Republicans will go for him, but I don't see how that would be enough for him to get reelected in 2020. The especially bad thing about his approval is that his net approval rating hasn't been able to be positive almost since the very moment he swore in, and that doesn't seem to ever change, which is unprecedented. It's like he's been drowning since he jumped into the presidency. If beating Hillary was a real feat in 2016, what miracle will he need in 2020? Does he count on Kim Jong-un's good will perhaps?


Did you think he was going to win in 2016, based on the polling?
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By Beren
#14985874
Victoribus Spolia wrote:Did you think he was going to win in 2016, based on the polling?

No, but I tend to believe it will be even harder for him in 2020.

Unless he has to face Hillary Clinton again. :lol:
#14985879
Beren wrote:No, but I tend to believe it will be even harder for him in 2020.


That's possible, but rarely do Incumbents lose in U.S. presidential elections and if they do its usually because of a single glaring scandal/gaffe, or because they got trounced in a debate during an economic downturn that made them look weak. (I am thinking of Bush Sr. in the former and Carter in the latter).

I don't think any of those things apply to Trump; the populace is basically numb to all the political noise regarding the weekly controversy surrounding his presidency and if something doesn't come up that doesn't exceed the supposed horror of the billy bush tape, its not likely he will suffer from Bush's fate, and likewise, if we don't go into a recession anytime soon and he continues to mock his opponents as effectively as he always has, I doubt he will suffer defeats for the same reasons Carter did.

As I said, the DNC has to be very competent about this and I don't think they can be.

If they infuriate Trump's base, he'll win again, but if they alienate their own base, they'll lose.

I mean seriously, who do you think they could run who would really stand a chance of beating him?
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By Beren
#14985881
Victoribus Spolia wrote:I don't think any of those things apply to Trump

Nobody really knows what applies to Trump, the numbers are not good for him, though.

Victoribus Spolia wrote:I mean seriously, who do you think they could run who would really stand a chance of beating him?

In my opinion literally anyone would really stand a chance of beating him, that's why the field is already crowded on the Dems' side. I'd bet my chips on Kamala Harris at the moment.
By skinster
#14985886
Beren wrote:Kamala Harris


Yeah black Hillary isn't going to win.

I thought Sanders was going to run again. Heard some noise about Tulsi Gabbard too.

My guess is that Trump will "win" again though, since the Dem Party are basically dogshit.
By skinster
#14985892
I'm not bothered either way, but it's just something I keep hearing about.

He's probably going to be a pussy like last time...and not run.
User avatar
By Beren
#14985894
skinster wrote:I'm not bothered either way, but it's just something I keep hearing about.

He's probably going to be a pussy like last time...and not run.

Why would he run when everyone will run on his agenda? :lol:
User avatar
By Beren
#14985901
skinster wrote:What?

Any Dem candidate will run on Medicare-for-all, otherwise s/he won't be a candidate. However, they're not Democratic Socialists, but a Democratic Socialist wouldn't beat Trump anyway.
#14985908
Kamala Harris frightens me.

Shes like a black version of Nurse Ratched and I fear she will require either lobotomies or castration for all white males in the United States.

*laughs uneasily to himself*
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By Stormsmith
#14985910
I'm wondering how many people are annoyed about having been played in the 2016 election. One one hand, there's the Hindsites who are so dug in, they'll never let go. Conversely, VS can't be the only one to be choked about it.

Hillary won't be running, so the anti Hillary brigade are free to swing back. Those who felt she was a shoo-in so they stayed home have learned a painful lesson,esp. those who need and lost their health care, or those who are choked at all those children who will never see their parents again, and suffer lifelong disabilities because of it.

Comey was fired.

But I think the real factor in Trump's success was the billions of dollars the news agencies gave this only semi-literate president was the coverage of his speeches. Trump supporters looked like a herd of 12 or 13 year old girls screaming and carrying on at a Beatles concert :roll:

If Biden enters, he'll take the nomination.
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