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By colliric
#15140829
The Republican Party spent 4 full terms in exile once... Over 16 years outside the Whitehouse.

Survived.

Republican President that pulled them out of that epic losing streak was Eisenhower. FDR wilfully forced the Democrats to bend to his will and the pressure of WW2 made the American public agree with him, even though he was completely trashing the two-term democratic tradition set by George Washington and FDR was acting like a fucken Dictator himself (even if it was a benevolent one, "only doing it for Nobel reasons".... He still did a Chancellor Palpatine as it's called now).
Last edited by colliric on 03 Dec 2020 14:56, edited 1 time in total.
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By Rancid
#15140831
I'm thinking Republicans have a bigger problem with Trump versus Democrats with their AoC/Bernie wing.

The good news for Republicans, is that Trump is old and likely in poor health. Of course, that's speculation since he's the only president in modern times that keeps his health a complete secret. IF he were in good health he would be plastering his reports everywhere and using it as propaganda against broken foot joe.
Last edited by Rancid on 03 Dec 2020 14:56, edited 1 time in total.
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By JohnRawls
#15140832
Rancid wrote:Many Republicans are sitting on the fence by either not backing up Trump, or condemning his behavior. I think this strategy is likely not a good one. They have to make a choice, else they lose more votes for their re-election.

If the condemn Trump, they lose his rabid supports. If they support Trump, they lose swing voters (like myself), if they do nothing, they very likely will lose both groups of people. They have lost me. I don't see myself voting for Republicans anytime in the future. They are basically honor-less scum.


Republican coalition is vast and loosing just the independent voters is bad but not party ending. Loosing moderate republicans who fall in McCain(Foreign policy/Military) or Bush(Economic/Business) camps is far more catastrophic and will destroy the party. Same goes for whoever the "liberty" camp is, I am not quite sure who can i call the leader. I mean it could technically continue to exist just that it won't gain majorities which will move the party in to the more irrelevant domain.
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By Rancid
#15140834
JohnRawls wrote:Republican coalition is vast and loosing just the independent voters is bad but not party ending. Loosing moderate republicans who fall in McCain(Foreign policy/Military) or Bush(Economic/Business) camps is far more catastrophic and will destroy the party. I mean it could technically continue to exist just that it won't gain majorities which will move the party in to the more irrelevant domain.


Fair enough, voters like me just aren't a big enough group. Do you think Republicans are at risk of losing those Bush/McCain Republicans? Are these the kinds of REpublicans that support the Lincoln Project?
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By JohnRawls
#15140837
Rancid wrote:Fair enough, voters like me just aren't a big enough group. Do you think Republicans are at risk of losing those Bush/McCain Republicans? Are these the kinds of REpublicans that support the Lincoln Project?


Yes exactly, you do get it. The people who already revolted against the Republicans will fully switch sides if this continues. The idea was that they help Democrats win over Trump but will return to the Republican camp once its done and normality is restored. Well, normality is not being restored and Trump is continuing to push his candidates, firing people and denying the election results.

This kinda moves that kind of people in to the realm of "We might not agree with everything that Democrats propose, but they sure as hell have the same ideals as us on the important questions so why support a party full of people who have totally different ideals?". While these camps might seem small and consists of "Technocrats" or "Deep state" or whatever you want to call them, they are heavy hitters and highly intellectual part of the Republican party. Their defection is far more than just loss of some voter groups. Not that loosing voter groups is good.
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By Rancid
#15140839
JohnRawls wrote:
Yes exactly, you do get it. The people who already revolted against the Republicans will fully switch sides if this continues. The idea was that they help Democrats win over Trump but will return to the Republican camp once its done and normality is restored. Well, normality is not being restored and Trump is continuing to push his candidates, firing people and denying the election results.

This kinda moves that kind of people in to the realm of "We might not agree with everything that Democrats propose, but they sure as hell have the same ideals as us on the important questions so why support a party full of people who have totally different ideals?". While these camps might seem small and consists of "Technocrats" or "Deep state" or whatever you want to call them, they are heavy hitters and highly intellectual part of the Republican party. Their defection is far more than just loss of some voter groups. Not that loosing voter groups is good.


Yea, I can see that. After all, Democrats and Republicans are more alike than they are different. Despite what Trump would have his followers believe. Hence, non-Trumpard Republicans would be willing to make the switch to Democrats until the unhinged Trumpism disappears...however long that takes.

The Republican party has a real fucking problem on their hands. Of their own doing too. Let's hope they don't compromise the government and take us all down with them. :hmm: That's my worry. It's fine with these Trump morons want to stay morons, but if they fuck up what I have going in my life..... fuck... that sucks. :hmm:
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By colliric
#15140841
JohnRawls wrote:. I mean it could technically continue to exist just that it won't gain majorities which will move the party in to the more irrelevant domain.


Common John, you know the Party will survive any downturn. Any party that's survived 16 years in exile previously isn't going to die when they got the biggest ever popular vote for an incumbent president, even if it was ultimately a loss.

The Democrats are painting this as "the ultimate victory" when it was pretty much the same EC result as the previous Election only reversed. Everyone thought the Democrats were also finished after "losing to Donald Trump.... How fucking embarrassing is that! THEY COULDN'T BEAT DONALD TRUMP!".

Guys, most people overseas think BOTH your political parties are clearly in a general slump. Dudes this was nothing like "the trouncing of '08, the slightly less trouncing of '12", it was a barely managing to fall over the line first totally exausted and half dead. Anyone with half a brain is predicting a single-term president.... Even if it's "because Kamala will totally take over".

In reality the death of political parties is an extremely long drawn out process in which the core payed up dues paying Party membership basically suicides the party internally by long-term switching to a newer party on the exact same side of the political spectrum. Parties don't die from losing elections, they die from the core membership financially departing for a newer party.

That's how the Greens basically killed off the Australian Democrats and how they're trying but failing to kill the Australian Labor Party, Labor is better at defending itself from such aggressive actions.
Last edited by colliric on 03 Dec 2020 15:23, edited 2 times in total.
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By JohnRawls
#15140846
colliric wrote:Common John, you know the Party will survive any downturn. Any party that's survived 16 years in exile previously isn't going to die when they got the biggest ever popular vote for an incumbent president, even if it was ultimately a loss.

The Democrats are painting this as "the ultimate victory" when it was pretty much the same EC result as the previous Election only reversed. Everyone thought the Democrats were also finished after "losing to Donald Trump.... How fucking embarrassing is that! THEY COULDN'T BEAT DONALD TRUMP!".

Guys, most people overseas think BOTH your political parties are clearly in a general slump. Dudes this was nothing like "the trouncing of '08, the slightly less trouncing of '12", it was a barely managing to fall over the line first totally exausted and half dead. Anyone with half a brain is predicting a single-term president.... Even if it's "because Kamala will totally take over".


Fine if you think that a party being dormant for a decade or two is going to reappear with the same name and expect it to be the same party then sure, okay under your logic Republicans can survive a "downturn" as you call it.

As for Democrats claiming an Ultimate victory. I mean it is a victory and if Republicans loose the senate then it is BIG victory. Unless Democrats get supermajority in senate only then it will become an Ultimate victory.

But that doesn't change the situation for the Republicans. Trump is actively trying to destroy the Republican party. What are they gonna do about it? If they confront TRump then they loose votes and if they don't confornt Trump they also loose votes. There are consequences for both choices and inaction and who will they try to blame etc.
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By colliric
#15140850
My point remains. Political Parties die usually when another newer party with a more updated version of the platform from the exact same side of Politics aggressively attacks relentlessly the paid up membership with a sustained campaign of "stealing members" over a period of many many decades and the financial revenue dies. Making campaign funds more difficult to obtain.

They don't die because of singular election results. The Republican Party formerly survived 4 election defeats in a row, and slowly clawed it's way back.

Anyone with half a brain knows the Democrats are in a major slump politically too and barely managed to win.

Trump is actively trying to destroy the Republican party


No he's not... If he was he'd do a Teddy Roosevelt(last President to actively attempt to kill his own party, Republicans of cause...One of the greatest) or even an Abe Lincoln(led the Republican Party itself as it killed the Wigs and other similar parties)...

Create a similar new party or join a similar newish one and immediately run on their ticket(this method rarely works and Teddy found that out) or launch a sustained multi-decade attempt to steal their membership.

Trump hasn't signalled he will do that yet, so he's NOT attempting to destroy the party.
Last edited by colliric on 03 Dec 2020 15:39, edited 2 times in total.
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By JohnRawls
#15140852
colliric wrote:My point remains. Political Parties die usually when another newer party from the exact same side of Politics aggressively attacks the paid membership with a sustained campaign of "stealing members" over a period of many many decades and the financial revenue dies.

They don't die because of election results. The Republican Party formerly survived 4 election defeats in a row, and slowly clawed it's way back.

Anyone with half a brain knows the Democrats are in a major slump politically too and barely managed to win.


"Barely"? Biden has around 8 million more votes than Trump. Percentage wise it is around 4.5% difference. The reason that Biden didn't win more is because of Electoral college.

Hillary managed to win the popular vote but lost the electoral college.

Democratic parties coalition has always been a fractured system but it works and sides that were not fully represented within the party at some times do not consider joining the Republicans because their interest has not been represented for 1 reason or the other.

Republican parties coalition has always been very tight knit and they represented a united front. Now some republican interests are considering full defection no doubt in that.

Long story short: Democrats are used to being fractured and that is why it is not that of a big deal for them. They are used to it. Republicans are not.
By Istanbuller
#15140856
Rancid wrote:Yea, I can see that. After all, Democrats and Republicans are more alike than they are different. Despite what Trump would have his followers believe. Hence, non-Trumpard Republicans would be willing to make the switch to Democrats until the unhinged Trumpism disappears...however long that takes.

The Republican party has a real fucking problem on their hands. Of their own doing too. Let's hope they don't compromise the government and take us all down with them. :hmm: That's my worry. It's fine with these Trump morons want to stay morons, but if they fuck up what I have going in my life..... fuck... that sucks. :hmm:

Saying both parties are alike sounds very ignorant. Only explanation can be your lack of understanding politics, worldviews and ideologies.

Never- Trump Republicans are conservative libertarians. These people have no connection to Democrats. Can you believe they suddenly stop being religious and pro market in exchange for socialism? :lol:
User avatar
By colliric
#15140858
He wouldn't be the first Republican President to attempt to suicide the party, since Teddy Roosevelt tried to kill the Republicans by taking all his voters and payed up supporters over to the Progressive Party.

Abe Lincoln basically used the Republican Party to kill a whole swag of other older parties itself.

Trump has not ever indicated that he will attempt either one, so no he's not "destroying the Republicans" since he is not actively trying to found a new "Trump party" to kill it.

Republican parties coalition has always been very tight knit and they represented a united front. Now some republican interests are considering full defection no doubt in that.


Historically not. The Republicans simply have to open a dang history book to see their party was created by strangling other older parties to death, and the last known President to actively attempt to kill his own Party is celebrated as one of the greatest Republican Presidents ever inspite of or perhaps because of his independent thinking. Historically Republican politics has been cutthroat. They've probably only been perceived as "relatively United" since the Reagan era, and that was inorder to survive the aftermath of Watergate. Party pulled together for one of the most famous election routs in US history.
Last edited by colliric on 03 Dec 2020 15:57, edited 1 time in total.
By Istanbuller
#15140862
colliric wrote:He wouldn't be the first Republican President to attempt to suicide the party, since Teddy Roosevelt tried to kill the Republicans by taking all his voters and payed up supporters over to the Progressive Party.

Abe Lincoln basically used the Republican Party to kill a whole swag of other older parties itself.

Trump has not ever indicated that he will attempt either one, so no he's not "destroying the Republicans" since he is not actively trying to found a new "Trump party" to kill it.

He energized the party's base. As I told in this thread earlier, his presidency is the one which really brings the change to politics.

A Tea Party candidate, as you stated previously, can keep up doing this. Redistricting advantage will turn a lot of seats to red in coming elections next decade.
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By colliric
#15140864
I've always wondered if Teddy's attempt at suiciding the Republican Party to get himself re-elected without the GOP behind him is what got him his spot on Mount Rushmore since you Americans use to respect "independent thinking".

Obviously not the case anymore though.
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By Rancid
#15140865
Istanbuller wrote:Can you believe they suddenly stop being religious and pro market in exchange for socialism?


Democrats are religious as well. They are also pro market (Wall Street movers/shakers backed Biden). The idea that Democrats are socialists (Bernie and AOC aside), is a fallacy created by Republican propagandists. This is the same propaganda that has created the Trump monster.

Hell, Biden came out yesterday saying he was not going to remove the China Tarrifs immediately either (he wants to develop a coherent and collaborative strategy with Europe first, which is fucking awesome to hear). These sorts of actions can sway those moderate republicans that were pro-trade war but overall unhappy with Trump (much like myself, I'm all for sticking to China, but having Trump as president isn't worth it to me).

Again, only the dummies go long with the Democrats = Socialist/Communist shit, and that's not all Republicans. The intellectual class of the Republicans know this. They understand that the fear propaganda around socialism is there only to sway the dummies to vote for Republicans. That's not enough for the Republicans that have influence, money, and intelligence.
By Istanbuller
#15140867
Rancid wrote:Democrats are religious as well. They are also pro market (Wall Street movers/shakers backed Biden). The idea that Democrats are socialists (Bernie and AOC aside), is a fallacy created by Republican propagandists. This is the same propaganda that has created the Trump monster.

You are again mistaken. Black Americans voting for Democrats can be religious but Democrat Party's base is overwhelmingly secular. Democrats do not believe in religious liberties.

Democrats do not believe in markets. Bloomberg doesn't believe in it. There is a huge difference between Koch and Bloomberg. There is no single Democrat billionaire believe in markets.

Saying "both are pro-market" is ignorant as well. Keynesianism and Austrian/ Chicago schools are two very different camps in economics.

What about you guys read a few books and later come here? We can discuss these later when you have a proper understanding of things.
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By Goranhammer
#15140868
Rancid wrote:Hell, Biden came out yesterday saying he was not going to remove the China Tarrifs immediately either (he wants to develop a coherent and collaborative strategy with Europe first, which is fucking awesome to hear).


Do you honestly think that position will stick? He has a debt to pay to the lunatic fringe wing of his party, and as soon as he suggests an uphold of a Trump policy (like this), they will call for his head - possibly literally.

The second he steps out of line, the Kamala train will pull into the station and call for the ouster, since she's more lock-step with the people who pulled the strings this election. Hell, they managed to impeach Trump off of fantasy bullshit and forged, bought-and-paid-for "evidence". Biden actually has legitimate actions to bring about charges. Don't think for a second they won't pull that trigger on one of their own if he doesn't kowtow to the basest of the base.
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By Rancid
#15140873
Goranhammer wrote:
Do you honestly think that position will stick? He has a debt to pay to the lunatic fringe wing of his party, and as soon as he suggests an uphold of a Trump policy (like this), they will call for his head - possibly literally.

The second he steps out of line, the Kamala train will pull into the station and call for the ouster, since she's more lock-step with the people who pulled the strings this election. Hell, they managed to impeach Trump off of fantasy bullshit and forged, bought-and-paid-for "evidence". Biden actually has legitimate actions to bring about charges. Don't think for a second they won't pull that trigger on one of their own if he doesn't kowtow to the basest of the base.


Probably won't stick, but at least the idea of a unified trade front against China has been floated. It will likely not be successful with Biden, but it at least tees it up for an idea to implement by some administration at some point in the future. This is the first time I hear anyone in the federal government even suggest that we need a multi-national coherent and unified strategy against China. Something that left me disappointed when Trump went after China. As his actions against China had no clear strategy or vision. He was just poking and prodding China, but not actually running a clear strategy with clear goals.

It's like Andrew Yang. I knew he was going to not get nominated to run for president, but the very fact he got the message of UBI out there on a much larger scale and stage, tees us up for more serious discussions down the road.
Last edited by Rancid on 03 Dec 2020 16:34, edited 2 times in total.
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By JohnRawls
#15140874
Rancid wrote:Democrats are religious as well. They are also pro market (Wall Street movers/shakers backed Biden). The idea that Democrats are socialists (Bernie and AOC aside), is a fallacy created by Republican propagandists. This is the same propaganda that has created the Trump monster.

Hell, Biden came out yesterday saying he was not going to remove the China Tarrifs immediately either (he wants to develop a coherent and collaborative strategy with Europe first, which is fucking awesome to hear). These sorts of actions can sway those moderate republicans that were pro-trade war but overall unhappy with Trump (much like myself, I'm all for sticking to China, but having Trump as president isn't worth it to me).

Again, only the dummies go long with the Democrats = Socialist/Communist shit, and that's not all Republicans. The intellectual class of the Republicans know this. They understand that the fear propaganda around socialism is there only to sway the dummies to vote for Republicans. That's not enough for the Republicans that have influence, money, and intelligence.


I wouldn't call people who go for Democrats = Socialists/Communists dummies. People have their own fears and reasons for that and it is a reasonable fear for lets say former immigrants from the USSR or Cuba etc.
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By Rancid
#15140875
JohnRawls wrote:
I wouldn't call people who go for Democrats = Socialists/Communists dummies. People have their own fears and reasons for that and it is a reasonable fear for lets say former immigrants from the USSR or Cuba etc.


I guess I'm not as diplomatic as you. Yes, I can agree with you here. :)
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