CDC Reports US Coronavirus Deaths for the Week Ending 7/11 Down to 137. - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15107288
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

Sounds like this thing is almost over. Deaths have been dropping for months now and last week's data shows that "all deaths involving COVID-19", which includes the debatable comorbidity deaths of people who had underlying conditions, were down to 137 for the week.

This is an over 90% rate of decline from the peak of the pandemic. If it continues to decline at this rate, the end of this week would have almost no deaths, although that might be optimistic.

California recently shut down but doing so in the face of almost no deaths would look kind of bizarre. It's going to get harder and harder to justify shutdowns. Europe is mostly reopened by now, even allowing in foreign travelers.

Soon we will be free :eek:
#15107294
Something very fishy is going on. NY has had the highest numbers of deaths in the US and even more than some other countries combined and they magically went down to zero.

And they just won't stop the hysteria over cases. All day every day it's cases cases cases.

If you bring up the low death rate, the corona kooks move the goal posts and start talking about their one friend who got really sick and has permanent organ damage.

Here's one example of the unsourced copypasta floating around on social media.

How can a disease with a 1% mortality rate shut down the U.S? Answered by Franklin Veaux:

There are two problems with this question.

1. It neglects the law of large numbers; and
2. It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.


The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.

Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.

The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?

What about the people who survive?

For every one person who dies:

-19 more require hospitalization.
-18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
-10 will have permanent lung damage.
-3 will have strokes.
-2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
-2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.

Last edited by maz on 14 Jul 2020 16:09, edited 1 time in total.
#15107297
maz wrote:Something very fishy is going on. NY has had the highest numbers of deaths in the US and even more than some other countries combined and they magically went down to zero.

And they just won't stop the hysteria over cases. All day every day it's cases cases cases.

If you bring up the low death rate, the corona kooks move the goal posts and start talking about their one friend who got sick and has permanent organ damage.

Here's one example of the unsourced copypasta floating around on social media.

Yeah, it's pretty clear that New York has been fudging the numbers from the start. They have 20k deaths in New York City alone, probably they were padding the death count and then added in the nursing home scandal. Then they reduced testing and starting lowballing the deaths instead of highballing everything to try and make up for it. Really blatant stuff.

Also in Florida, there was a testing site that was giving back 100% positive results with its coronavirus tests. Various other places had high 90's, high 80's or high 70's. It seems possible that the high case counts in Florida were being partially manipulated too.

I give this thing about two more weeks! Once it becomes undeniable that deaths from the spike in testing will not materialize, this whole thing is going to collapse. As usual, incompetent Dems played their hand too early and now they can't pump their own numbers up to prolong the thing. Serves them right...
#15107302
This thread is nonsense.

The CDC report is based on death certificates received and makes clear last weeks data is incomplete as it takes up to 8 weeks for all the certificates to be submitted.

'*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.'
#15107304
BeesKnee5 wrote:This thread is nonsense.

The CDC report is based on death certificates received and makes clear last weeks data is incomplete as it takes up to 8 weeks for all the certificates to be submitted.

'*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.'

Upon actually reading the website (yes, I should have probably done that first) it says this: Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

So while I am clearly wrong about this one, 8 weeks appears to be an outlier.

Edit: Reading it even more closely, what the "percent of expected deaths" appears to mean is that they're estimating about 950 for the week. So we're still in a decline at least :?:
#15107427
Image

Basically, every chart that I have seen shows that the death rates are on a gradual decline while cases are skyrocketing. And that's if we can even trust that their tests are accurate or being recorded correctly.

How can this be anything other than a good thing?This national freakout about re-shutting everything down again is nothing but politics and pure panic by Democrats. It is manipulative, disgusting and I hate it.
#15109391
Wulfschilde wrote:Edit: Reading it even more closely, what the "percent of expected deaths" appears to mean is that they're estimating about 950 for the week. So we're still in a decline at least :?:


I didn't see this before and it explains why you got things so wrong.

Expected deaths is the average number of deaths that occurred in prior years, it's not an estimate for this year. Percentage of expected deaths is therefore a measure of how many more / less deaths occurred compared to a typical year in the past.

They were never estimating 950 because the covid proportion of expected deaths was zero ( Average number of people who died of Covid in the years 2017-2019).

The figure is valuable because it helps understand the net effect of the pandemic.
People staying home have fewer deadly accidents, socially distancing reduces all infectious disease transmission so reduces flu and food poisoning deaths, but suicides tend to rise and so does deaths from domestic violence. You also tend to see the rise in deaths during a pandemic resulting in lower death rates afterwards ( People dying of Covid wont be around to die of something else later).

But trying to use it to calculate what the number of deaths due to covid will be in a week simply does not work.
#15109540
maz wrote:Image

Basically, every chart that I have seen shows that the death rates are on a gradual decline while cases are skyrocketing. And that's if we can even trust that their tests are accurate or being recorded correctly.

How can this be anything other than a good thing?This national freakout about re-shutting everything down again is nothing but politics and pure panic by Democrats. It is manipulative, disgusting and I hate it.

I agree. The facts are a good thing. However, Biden says, We choose truth over fact, that is the Democrats made up political truth.


Biden: “We Choose Truth Over Facts”


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