Wulfschilde wrote:It's not a big assumption because as I mentioned, they've historically only been off by a few percentage points each week for months now. This means it would be safe to assume that they will continue to be within a few percentage points of their estimates. I've also used the word "prospective" according to its dictionary definition, so there should be no problems here.
I've seen nothing to show they have been a few percentage points off. Mainly because they are not providing estimates.
They are reporting based on data received up to a given date.
For example :
Earlier today 14% of data was in for WE 18th July and covid deaths were 190.
Now 21% of data is in and the deaths are 336.
If the deaths end up at 100% of expected then thats an increase of 17%. If the CDC figures are varying so widely due to the paucity of data then on what grounds are you getting a few percent?
Wulfschilde wrote:But let's say that you are correct and the total number inches up a bit. What I've posted is that we are seeing a decline. If they all inch up an equal amount, which seems to be what you are suggesting, the decline I've noted would still exist because it's based upon their values relative to each other, not their total values.
Just simply no, they are not inching up an equal amount, the most recent figures are inching up significantly faster than the older figures because there is more data outstanding.
Here is what the totals looked like on the 4th Julyhttps://web.archive.org/web/20200704200 ... /index.htm
Look at the figures
13th June 3185 deaths 85% of expected => 3747 @ 100% ( figure today 4000 @ 104% )
20th June 1640 deaths 65% of expected => 2523 @ 100% ( figure today 3496 @ 102% )
27th June 313 deaths 32% of expected => 978 @ 100% ( figure today 3171 @ 98% )
On this rate of change it is possible for 27th June to eventually exceed the 20th June and the same is true for all the weeks since, we will not know for certain for a few more weeks.
In fact the 4th July figure of 3082 with 89% of expected looks almost certain to be higher than the previous few weeks based on these figures and the 11th July is already over 20% higher than the 20th June with a similar amount of the data in.