Let the speculations begin!
Moderator: PoFo North America Mods
annatar1914 wrote:Early, I know.
Doug64 wrote:Really early, you completely skipped 2022! You'd better believe what happens next year is going to have a huge impact on what happens in 2024.
JohnRawls wrote:Biden will probably win again, unless something unexpected like health issues happen.
Local interest wrote:Biden is most likely to run for reelection, in which case he will most likely win against whatever the opposition is. However, if, for whatever reason, Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, they are probably fucked, considering how much more disliked she seems to be than even Hillary Clinton.
annatar1914 wrote:Let's put it this way; it'll be clear by 2022 why Biden isn't running for re-election in 2024, and why Harris is like Biden, a stopgap measure by the DNC establishment, unlikely to run in 2024 either.
annatar1914 wrote:It'll also be clear in 2022 that the GOP is President Trump's party, and that the GOP is totally dependent on him and his followers for it's continued existence.
annatar1914 wrote:Opponents of his in the GOP will be voted out in 2022 whenever possible, as the Neoconservatives flee to the Democratic Party and White and Non-White working class Democrats and Independents flock to the GOP.
So 2024 is more important, as about the only thing for certain is that President Trump will have been a factor in it's outcome.
blackjack21 wrote:Unexpected? You think there are no expected health issues for someone who is 78 years old and exhibits signs of dementia? That's the number 1 reason people think Trump won't run.
Biden is already a figurehead, and the Democrats are already concerned about him having exclusive control over the nuclear football. Since the establishment, for God knows what reason, wants a woman president, it's not at all inconceivable that they give Biden the heave ho after the 2022 mid terms, leaving Harris an opportunity to run for two terms.
So you think Biden will finish out his first term? I've always figured that he would step down after two years and let Kamala Harris have the presidency. Then, Joe gets the credit for the first woman president--not the electorate.
What they're really dependent on is voters, and like the Democrats, the Republican establishment pisses off their base too frequently. Republicans who focus on issues like trade and illegal immigration can step right into Trump's shoes. That takes a certain type of temperament, because such a person is going to be met with imminent attacks from the media.
Yes, so what is transpiring is a political realignment.
JohnRawls wrote:Average age expectancy for heavily developed countries is +-80 years with the highest countries being 84+.
blackjack21 wrote:So death is expected, but not serious health issues. I see.
Interpret as you want. Basically if health issues don't get in the way then he will almost certainly win. In this sense Biden got it easy:
1) He will be credited for Covid recovery and beating the pandemic.
2) He will be running for re-election which is easier.
3) If Trump or Trump like candidate runs then they literally stand no chance since Biden did what Trump couldn't. (Beat the Pandemic and take it seriously)
4) If a "establishment" candidate challenges Biden then this will invigorate democratic left to vote for Biden even harder while probably will discourage the Trumpists a bit. I can see how the Republicans can win under this choice but the chances are pretty low.
If Trump is a factor in 2024, then we can be certain of a Democrats victory given he would split the Republican vote. And if we are sure that Biden won't run again due to his age, then the same logic is true on Trump in any case.
My opinion is that if a Trump is going to run in 2024 it will be Trump Jr. But as someone wrote in another thread, whether Trump realistically is planning on 2024 or not, in the short term he will say he is planning on running... or imply he is running, in order to finance his ponzi that he had been running since his election defeat.
I guess predictions so early on is futile but nonetheless fun, however Trump may well be in prison in 2024, running his own 'Alex Jones' radio show or even in a home due to his dementia kicking in. Assuming Trump is a factor in 2024 is ignoring all the hurdles he has to conquer and also assuming that he really wants to run in any case.
JohnRawls wrote:3) If Trump or Trump like candidate runs then they literally stand no chance since Biden did what Trump couldn't. (Beat the Pandemic and take it seriously)
JohnRawls wrote:4) If a "establishment" candidate challenges Biden then this will invigorate democratic left to vote for Biden even harder while probably will discourage the Trumpists a bit.
Istanbuller wrote:* Biden says nothing can change the trajectory of the Covid pandemic over the next several months. This man was accusing Trump. Now look at what he says.
Istanbuller wrote:* Pro-Biden and anti-Trumpist media personalities address Biden's failure on Covid-19. Meghan McCain Wants Dr. Anthony Fauci Replaced With Someone Who “Understands Science”.
Istanbuller wrote:* Democrats' darling and anti-trumpist New York State governor covered up Covid-19 deaths.
Istanbuller wrote:All of these scandals are missed on PoFo. Guess why?
annatar1914 wrote:80 to 90 % of the GOP base would vote for Trump, the Neoconservative/Big Business War party wing of the other 10 to 20% are already migrating to the Democrats, while the blue collar Democrats and Independents are migrating to the GOP. This process will be completed by 2024 I am sure. That being said, Trump 4 years older would not be an issue for them after 4 years of a Democratic administration.
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