Election 2024 Thread - Page 15 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By colliric
#15213175
Tulsi Gabbard will run for the Republican Party. Mark my words. Also the time has come for Palin to launch a campaign.

Also a very real possibility Clinton will run one last time. Since Assange has been "taken care of"(soon he will be found hanging in his belmarsh cell with the cameras off).



Never Hilary. It must not be allowed to happen.
By Doug64
#15213292
Rancid wrote:I predict a Trump rout. Assuming he's not in prison for financial fraud.

If Trump runs I can see him winning a squeaker, even comfortably, but not a rout. There's probably too many like me that won't vote for the man no matter who his opponent is.

And an interesting bit of election news:

Indiana officials reject ballot challenge to GOP Rep. Banks

Indiana officials rejected on Friday an attempt to kick Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Banks off of the ballot over claims that he violated the Constitution by allegedly supporting last year’s U.S. Capitol insurrection.

The state election commission, which is made up of two Republicans and two Democrats, voted unanimously against the challenge filed by a long-shot Democratic candidate for Banks’ northeastern Indiana district.

An attorney for Banks argued that the allegations were baseless and that removing Banks from the ballot would deprive his supporters of their preferred representative in Congress.

“Congressman Banks has publicly commented that he did not support that conduct, nor did he engage in it, and he has also called for the prosecution of unlawful conduct that occurred that day,” attorney Paul Mullins said.

Democrat Aaron Calkins, of Fort Wayne, told the commission he believed Banks violated the 14th Amendment’s ban on members of Congress engaging in “insurrection or rebellion” by backing the efforts of then-President Donald Trump and his supporters to overturn President Joe Biden’s election.

Banks, an outspoken Trump supporter, was rejected last year by Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as the top Republican for the committee investigating the Capitol insurrection, which was followed by House GOP leadership boycotting the panel.

A similar challenge on 14th Amendment grounds is pending against North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn.

Banks, who is seeking reelection from a heavily Republican district he first won in 2016, criticized the ballot challenge as a “bogus theory” against Republicans like him who voted in the hours after the siege to overturn Biden’s Electoral College win, which has been upheld by a succession of judges and state election officials

“Many Democrats in Washington hope to weaponize the 14th amendment to disenfranchise President Trump’s 74 million voters,” Banks said in a statement. “I hope they watched today’s unanimous decision.”

Paul Okeson, the Indiana commission’s Republican chairman, said the Capitol riot was a “regrettable mark in history” but that there was no evidence that Banks was guilty of taking part in an insurrection.


Yup, two major problems (though of course AP only really covers one). First, there's zero evidence that Representative Banks had anything to do with the January 6 riot, and second the major problem that the AP lies about--the riot wasn't an insurrection, as evidenced by the fact that, AFAIK, not a single participant has been charged with that crime. If you want a real modern example of an insurrection, you have to look to the Oregon siege carried out by BLM/AntiFa.
#15213296
Having started this thread but little contribution to it, time has afforded me a period of reflection on who will run and who will win in 2024. I think that the next President will be Vice President Pence.
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By colliric
#15213298
annatar1914 wrote:Having started this thread but little contribution to it, time has afforded me a period of reflection on who will run and who will win in 2024. I think that the next President will be Vice President Pence.


Nah the Republican Party faithful hate him. It's either Trump or a dark horse.

I'm going with The Dark Horse of either a flipped Gabbard, or Sarah Palin.
#15213316
colliric wrote:Nah the Republican Party faithful hate him. It's either Trump or a dark horse.

I'm going with The Dark Horse of either a flipped Gabbard, or Sarah Palin.


No, they don't hate him. And by the time 2024 rolls around, they'll pick Trumpism without Trump, just watch. They'll realize what few saw on January 6th 2020: that Pence is an honorable man, who probably prevented a civil war.
By late
#15213325
Most establishment Republicans will be busy sabotaging Trump. It won't be hard. Trump's cult has their doubts about him. Extremists and apostasy...

The Cult will never trust Pence.

Republicans have a fight going on between the marginally sane and insane wings of the party.

So they will have to come up with a compromise, Trump on the outside, establishment on the inside. But I have no idea who will be acceptable to both sides.
By late
#15214665
colliric wrote:
Yep.. she's definitely running for the Republican Party at the next election.



There's only one woman with even a ghost of a chance of getting the nomination, and I'd put her odds at less than 1%. Misogyny, ya know?

In a deadlocked situation like this, a party will often settle on somebody you never heard of. That's because he doesn't have enough of a track record for either side to hate him.

I expect the election will really suck.
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By Rancid
#15214766
Romney just called MTG and Gosar morons.

I tell you guys all the time. They are MAGA morons... Romney agrees with me.
By wat0n
#15214783
I'm guessing Trump's support for Putin will kill his chances in 2024... Won't it?

I mean, now I'm guessing he'll face a real fight within the GOP but even if they nominate him I don't see independents forgetting his support for Putin in Ukraine.
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By Rancid
#15215760
I loved living in Chicagoland, but hated Chicagoland and Illinois politics.

When I lived in Chicagoland I always voted Republican/conservative basically.

I also kept guns in my apartment even though there was a gun ban, I was willing to get arrested for it. Eventually the ban was lifted though, thankfully.

If the Republican party shifted to someone like Romney, I've be more willing to vote for them again. NOt saying I would become a republican, but I would take them more seriously.
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By Drlee
#15215890
I would support Romney as well. He is an honorable man; just about the only republican (save Liz) who has held the moral high ground. He is exactly what my party needs.
#15215893
Obviously it's going to be Trump if they let an election happen. He just won the CPAC vote by a landslide. DeSantis came in second.
#15215896
Rancid wrote:I loved living in Chicagoland, but hated Chicagoland and Illinois politics.

When I lived in Chicagoland I always voted Republican/conservative basically.

I also kept guns in my apartment even though there was a gun ban, I was willing to get arrested for it. Eventually the ban was lifted though, thankfully.

If the Republican party shifted to someone like Romney, I've be more willing to vote for them again. NOt saying I would become a republican, but I would take them more seriously.


Romney is the only sane person I know of in the GOP. If conservatives were smart they'd vote Romney, but they're stupid so they'll vote for Mr. Stupid.

Not sure I see Joe running again, and not sure Harris will take the nod.
By Doug64
#15216032
Image

Here's Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball's latest take on the midterm election:

President Joe Biden gave his first official State of the Union address last night. While it is hard for any speech to change public opinion, the State of the Union remains one of the big political events on the calendar — arguably the biggest regularly-scheduled one of the year, other than election nights. Tens of millions tune in for these addresses, still impressive in an era with a splintered media environment and an overflowing trove of content options for Americans. The speech presented Biden with an opportunity to try to improve perceptions of his presidency; we’ll see if it has any effect.

Biden gave his speech as his approval rating continues to stagnate. His approval rating in the 2 major polling averages, FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, was at about 41% in each as of Tuesday afternoon with disapproval at around 54%. There’s been scant sign of a rally-around-the-flag effect from the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, at least in terms of Biden’s approval, although that could change.

Republicans also more often than not lead House generic ballot polling, the national surveys that ask respondents either which party they plan on supporting in the next election or which party they want to control Congress. Over the weekend, the ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Republicans up 49%-42% on the generic ballot among registered voters; other polls have generally showed smaller Republican leads, with Democrats retaining leads in 2 regularly-conducted online surveys, Politico/Morning Consult and Economist/YouGov. Although even in those 2 surveys, Democrats lead but only register about 45% support or less. With Biden’s approval rating so low, one would expect Republicans to have an easier time winning undecideds later in the cycle. Overall, Republicans lead in the averages of generic ballot polls by between 2 (FiveThirtyEight) to 3 (RealClearPolitics) points.

There’s not a perfect relationship between the eventual popular vote in November’s House elections and the president’s approval rating. Even if a president’s approval rating is dismal, the floor for a major party these days in terms of the 2-party vote is probably at least 45%.

Table 3 shows the results of the last half-century or so of midterm elections, along with the president’s average approval rating around the time of the election. This table also shows the adjusted 2-party popular vote for House in all of those midterms. We say “adjusted” because this calculation accounts for uncontested seats, which can sometimes skew the numbers one way or the other — these figures are from our friend and occasional Crystal Ball contributor Theodore S. Arrington, an emeritus political science professor at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte.

Table 3: 1974-2018 midterm results
Image
Sources: The Long Red Thread; Theodore Arrington; FiveThirtyEight

In any event, notice that since 1982, no party has fallen below 45% of the adjusted 2-party House vote, even though several presidents were below 45% approval at the time of the midterm: Barack Obama was at 45% in 2010, and he was below 45% in 2014, while both George W. Bush in 2006 and Donald Trump in 2018 were also below 45%.

Note, also, that even popular presidents typically see their party lose the adjusted House popular vote, like Ronald Reagan in 1986 and Bill Clinton in 1998 (the latter’s party actually gained seats in the midterm, 1 of just 2 times since World War II that has happened). The president’s party also almost always loses ground in the adjusted 2-party vote share from the previous election (the presidential election year). The only exception was George W. Bush and the Republicans in 2002, a midterm in which Bush was over 60% approval and where Republicans benefited, on balance, from decennial redistricting/reapportionment. Even then, Republicans gained just an extra point from their performance in the bitterly-contested 2000 election.

On average, the president’s party lost about 3% of its previous House vote share over the course of the last 12 midterms (that’s 6 points in terms of margin). Democrats won just 51% of the adjusted 2-party House vote in 2020, and Biden is unpopular. Even though redistricting, on balance, appears to have turned out better for Democrats than many expected, the history and the environment suggest that the Republicans are much likelier than the Democrats to win the national House vote in November, which would almost assuredly translate into a House majority.
#15216037
Unthinking Majority wrote:Romney is the only sane person I know of in the GOP. If conservatives were smart they'd vote Romney, but they're stupid so they'll vote for Mr. Stupid.

Not sure I see Joe running again, and not sure Harris will take the nod.



Mitt Romney is not sane, at all. Just a typical predatory big business Oligarch, except when in his magic underwear, with plenty of oily smarm, good hair and teeth.
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By Drlee
#15216077
Mitt Romney is not sane, at all. Just a typical predatory big business Oligarch, except when in his magic underwear, with plenty of oily smarm, good hair and teeth.


You mean like the Kennedy's? 8)

Someone like Romney would be a fine president. He won't be president but he could tamp down the right wingers who would have to choose between fighting a republican president or the democrats. Romney believes in democracy which is a novel concept these days.
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