Why US will lose a war with China over Taiwan island - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15169884
It would seem to some that a US war with China over the island of Taiwan appears imminent.

Considering the congestion of hostile forces in, above, and below the Taiwan Straits and South China Sea, conflict could explode by accident or design. Once blood is drawn, the US will have few options. If the US elects to fight China over the island of Taiwan, then it will lose.

Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) independence hubris is fueled by US cabinet-level China hawks and Congress' bipartisan, bicameral Taiwan Caucus. The DPP has rejected political reunification in one China and dismissed the "one country, two systems" model under which both Taiwan and Hong Kong have gotten rich. Encouraged by US trivialization of the three joint communiqués, the DPP parades a sense of entitlement, taking for granted an umbrella of protection with full knowledge of the dire consequences for the US

The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) may not have been intended to give birth to Taiwan's renegade secessionists, but it has done exactly that.

The DPP's champions in the US Congress dismiss omens of fanatical China grit on the topic of Taiwan. China-bashing and Taiwan-coveting rhetoric forms an echo chamber reminiscent of the groupthink-led American Friends of Vietnam (AFV) lobby that pressured the US to commit to the Vietnam War killing 60,000 American patriots before the US disgracefully abandoned its ally.

But the Chinese are different. China's history of the whole-of-society commitment to core national security priorities is legendary. The rebellions and unrests in the 19th century cost millions of Chinese lives. Twentieth century Chinese civil war losses ranged between 5 and 8 million, and 360,000 Chinese died in Korea, while routing and humiliating US and UN forces. In each case, the dynasties emerged stronger.

The US Congress' interests in Taiwan are deeply conflicted, better said corrupt. The reciprocal relationship between defense lobbyists, industry contributions, and a Caucus Member's reelectability is well documented. The bipartisan support for increasing arms sales to Taiwan and even larger defense expenditures on the US Indo-Pacific Command are logical and transparent as all parties profit from the tension and war.

Many Americans assume China's citizenry longs for a liberal democracy like that on the island of Taiwan, and that war will trigger popular revolt. But the Taiwan question is not an ideological dispute. Rather it is a raw and painful open wound in China's civilizational identity. Today, US othering of Chinese only fuels a fierce nationalism in its 1.4 billion citizens. China has a traditional self-narrative wherein the preservation of face and enforcement of sovereignty are inseparable.

All the while the balance of power has shifted fundamentally. The US would be wise to regard China as a peer superpower, if only due to her casualty-tolerance - China's decisive advantage in any fight with the US. China also shares a binding mutual defense treaty with North Korea, and the depths of its friendship and security bonds with Russia should never be underestimated.

The US can think whatever it wants about China's ideology, culture, Xinjiang and Hong Kong policies, and sovereign claims to Taiwan, Hong Kong, and surrounding seas. But, whether the US likes it or not, those are ultimately China's internal affairs.

As for DPP claims of the Province of Taiwan's non-Chinese identity, they are historical fiction. Fate made them Chinese just as fate made us Americans. We also know that the free will choice to carve out a territory and people from an existing nation incurs a steep price, one the Confederacy paid not long ago.

The US has never paid an existential price for violating another nation's sovereignty, leading to our smug sense of military invincibility. However, with Taiwan being a core Chinese priority, that would be a fatal miscalculation. Still, the US counts on regional allies to share the pain. Yet some will have blood debts to pay if they engage in China's civil war. For example, India was bloodied badly in the 1960s for testing China's territorial resolve. Japan's humiliating 50-year occupation of Taiwan and the Rape of Nanjing also remain fresh, unforgettable wounds for China. The US allies will definitely think twice before militarily intervening in China's unresolved civil war and internal affairs.

The US could advise Taiwan's secessionists to peaceably accept "one country, two systems" and cease its "independence" ambitions. If they don't stop their rhetoric, the US president could rescind the TRA, as baiting China to force reunification is of the DPP's own choosing. If Congress obstructs TRA recension, the US president could order all national security agencies to stand down in cross-Straits conflicts, keeping our powder dry for actual existential threats in the future.

In the end, the prosperous Taiwan people will make every effort to wag the American dog. But Taiwan's fate poses no existential threat to the US, and the US should not fall into the trap of paying for their hubris with American blood. However, in view of the violent political polarization of the US at home, an ill-advised foreign war with no path to victory would only serve to accelerate America's decline.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1222217.shtml
#15169885
The Anglo American Alliance has difficulty applying to China their favorite method divide and conquer
as for example they did in former Yugoslavia, Libya, Ukraine and so on.
After all we can say apart from the corrupt political elite, no one else in Taiwan is more pro-American than pro-Chinese.
The fact is that Han ethnicity makes up over 92% of the Chinese population in mainland China and 97% in Taiwan.
Today, Taiwan is one of the biggest investors in China. Between 1991 and the end of March 2020, approved investment in China totaling US$188.5 billion.
In 2019, the value of cross-strait trade was US$149.2 billion.
#15169929
Russianbear wrote:
It would seem to some that a US war with China over the island of Taiwan appears imminent.



Xi isn't stupid.

He knows he can get Taiwan by being patient, and he knows that a military attack will have severe diplomatic consequences. All the gains China made during the Trump years, and more, will vanish.

We won't fight over Taiwan. Bill Clinton made a major faux pas by admitting that in a speech. Anyone versed in foreign affairs knew that, but you were never to say it in public.

Xi knows how to play Go. I get the feeling teddy bear does not, or at least doesn't understand what the game can teach you.

Which is quite odd.
#15169932
Sandzak wrote:
The next 3 years are the most dangerous for the US, because Russia and China have hyper-sonic rockets whereas the US has just 20th century missiles.



China is in no way ready for direct conflict with the US.

There is a Go proverb, "Rich men don't pick fights". China's long term prospects are excellent, and ours are not. So why start a fight when they are already winning the 'war'?

It would make no sense.
#15169988
late wrote:China is in no way ready for direct conflict with the US.

There is a Go proverb, "Rich men don't pick fights". China's long term prospects are excellent, and ours are not. So why start a fight when they are already winning the 'war'?

It would make no sense.



You are right. There is an option how the US could win the global competiton:


viewforum.php?f=26
#15169994
Russianbear wrote:The US could advise Taiwan's secessionists to peaceably accept "one country, two systems" and cease its "independence" ambitions.


China didn't respect "one country, two systems" in Hong Kong and neither will it in Taiwan.

Russianbear wrote:After all we can say apart from the corrupt political elite, no one else in Taiwan is more pro-American than pro-Chinese.


Meanwhile in reality:
Poll shows highest ever support for Taiwan independence
Around 54 percent of respondents support official independence for Taiwan. Meanwhile, 23.4 percent prefer maintaining the status quo, 12.5 percent favor unification with China, and 10 percent do not hold any particular view on the matter.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3951560
#15170052
late wrote:China's long term prospects are excellent, and ours are not.

Why do you think this is the case? China has had a one child policy from 1978 until very recently. China's population is aging more rapidly than any other country on Earth. They will lose 67M workers in the next decade. Furthermore, culturally the Chinese prefer to have a boy if they only have one child. This has resulted in 280 males for every 100 females born since 1978. So not only will China's population fall by nearly half at some point, only half of that halved population will be able to breed. That's how math works.

There are rumors that China has also lied about coronavirus fatalities.



Now considering this sex ratio, it also may explain why China is becoming more belligerent and could afford to have high attrition wars with so many expendable non-breeding males.

Since you are a doctrinaire liberal, I'll cite the New York Times for you.

China’s Looming Crisis:
A Shrinking Population


NYT wrote:Chinese academics recently delivered a stark warning to the country’s leaders: China is facing its most precipitous decline in population in decades, setting the stage for potential demographic, economic and even political crises in the near future.

The CCP also routinely lies in its statistics--like claiming 15M live births, then 15 years later showing the number of 15 year olds at 13M. Two million people just vanished?

Russianbear wrote:All the while the balance of power has shifted fundamentally. The US would be wise to regard China as a peer superpower, if only due to her casualty-tolerance - China's decisive advantage in any fight with the US. China also shares a binding mutual defense treaty with North Korea, and the depths of its friendship and security bonds with Russia should never be underestimated.


Gravitas: China claims ownership of a Russian city
So you were saying China is upset about losing face and territorial lands. Now why do you think that stops at the Russian border?
#15170060
Rugoz wrote:China didn't respect "one country, two systems" in Hong Kong and neither will it in Taiwan.



Meanwhile in reality:
Poll shows highest ever support for Taiwan independence
Around 54 percent of respondents support official independence for Taiwan. Meanwhile, 23.4 percent prefer maintaining the status quo, 12.5 percent favor unification with China, and 10 percent do not hold any particular view on the matter.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3951560


Except that, as in the US, reality is not a fake news media poll
#15170068
The US would lose a war because it'd be over before they could react. The US defense strategy of Taiwan begins and ends with deterrence, really. Especially once the new chipset manufacturers get made outside of East Asia.

The Taiwanese might put up a token resistance, but really, even the party that wants independence consistently rejects increasing defense funding, expanding conscription, or other basic measures that a "nation under siege" would be expected to enact. Why should Americans die for Taiwan when the Taiwanese don't seem to be willing to do it?
#15170072
Russianbear wrote:Except that, as in the US, reality is not a fake news media poll


Oh right, whe should trust the CCP on public opinion instead, which has never held a free election or referendum in its entire history, while Taiwan does it on a regular basis.

Fasces wrote:The US would lose a war because it'd be over before they could react. The US defense strategy of Taiwan begins and ends with deterrence, really. Especially once the new chipset manufacturers get made outside of East Asia.

The Taiwanese might put up a token resistance, but really, even the party that wants independence consistently rejects increasing defense funding, expanding conscription, or other basic measures that a "nation under siege" would be expected to enact. Why should Americans die for Taiwan when the Taiwanese don't seem to be willing to do it?


Taiwan's defense spending has grown to 2.4% of GDP, which is quite substantial. It's the same as in South Korea, while in Japan for example it's barely 1%. The goal is obviously not to match the PLA but to make it expensive for China to take the island.
#15170073
I am not anti-China, but I am hard pressed to see Chinese territorial claims on Taiwan 'legitimate' (a troublesome concept in international affairs, but so it goes), and as such found some of the contents in the OP article a bit deceptive. Of course Chinese people largely believe the things presented in the article, but they are trained to do so.

The contemporary nation state of the People's Republic of China can trace its inception to the Communist victory over the so-called Nationalists in 1949. Taiwan--as I understand it--was the last holdout of the 'Nationalist' side, and as such was never conquered by the PRC.

I am very hard pressed to see Chinese claims over Taiwan as legitimate. That isn't to say that China won't eventually succeed in reuniting with conquering and annexing Taiwan. The future is uncertain there.
#15170084
blackjack21 wrote:
Why do you think this is the case?



Every country faces challenges, China is one of the few willing to do what it takes to deal with those challenges. Don't think of that as approval.

They will not spend on their elderly population the way the West does. They are importing females, and you can expect that to increase. And they will invest in automation, just as Japan has (which also has a terrible reproduction problem).

Btw, we don't, because immigration. Life is not without these little moments of irony.
#15170085
late wrote:Every country faces challenges, China is one of the few willing to do what it takes to deal with those challenges. Don't think of that as approval.


Taiwan does not want to be under the CCP.

This is not a legitimate "challenge".
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