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#15189653
Igor Antunov wrote:Cope. China doesn't have to invade. It could so easily buy the separate states with trade and gibs.

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The signs are everywhere. It began years ago. It is happening.


A random poll on twitter is your source for insight @Igor Antunov? Fuck me!

The signs are that America still like waving their flag as much today as they did in the yesteryears. What will happen if anything is more state autonomy. The fundamental issues like economy, security and geopolitics will remain at national level and the things that really do divide nations will go autonomous. Can you imagine if California actually had universal healthcare whilst Texas made abortions illegal along with all their 'Freedom economic policies'? I can't imagine a better system to help Social reform move along as well as making America progress over time.

As I said, America's problem has never been Patriotism. Its problem is that their people are aware of a problem that they don't understand.

Also, another thing that unites both parties is China and their threat to US homogeny. Which states in your humble opinion are going to run to China given that? :lol:
#15189873
I rarely agree with Igor though he is a fun troll.

This time I think I do. The thing is though that he has forgotten that we already have broken apart. Irreparably. Our institutions are in disarray. I would maintain that, like the civil war, we may not even be able to count on the military to remain loyal to the central government.

Since Biden took office the following has happened:

1. Voter suppression is in full swing. Several states have openly and effectively disenfranchised a huge piece of their population; mostly those who identify as moderate.

2. The central government has demonstrated not only that it can't govern but that it can't even protect the children of the country from a deadly and disabling disease.

3. Armed militias (organized or potential) have become even more heavily armed and are completely unopposed.

4. The SCOTUS abolished Roe V. Wade. This is not important because of abortion but rather because using this case the court authorized the state to use harassment and private prosecution to control its political enemies. This is a huge deal that has absolutely no discussion in the press.

5. Under Biden we have destroyed any hope of building military and political coalitions in the future by our disgraceful fleeing Afghanistan with our tail between our legs.......Again.

6. The Democratic party has shown that it can't even defend the governor of a bright blue state by getting out the vote. California is soon to be ruled by a right wing dictator using vast powers granted to the governor.

7. Our economy is teetering on the brink right now. In about three months we will have millions of homeless with no chance of housing. Not only because they do not earn enough money. (50% of American workers do not earn enough to rent a one bedroom apartment.) In addition, housing prices are rising to unsustainable levels and housing starts are down.

8. Anyone who has visited a grocery store lately can see that the shelves are much more empty than before. Americans do not do scarcity well.

9. We are doing fuck all about climate change which is a more immediate problem than we know. In the winter, 90% of vegetables come from Arizona which is in a profound drought. The Colorado River is at the point where it cannot sustain agriculture into the largest growing regions in the country. And none of you knew it.

10. There is no leadership in Washington. They are fucking around with some bullshit Omnibus left wing dream list of stuff that has no chance of passing.

So the coup has already happened. It is though, a good time to be an affluent, old, white, republican, male in America.
#15189881
It is though, a good time to be an affluent, old, white, republican, male in America.

...which was the whole point of the past 40 years of American politics.

So that's alright then. :)
#15190067
Drlee wrote:4. The SCOTUS abolished Roe V. Wade. This is not important because of abortion but rather because using this case the court authorized the state to use harassment and private prosecution to control its political enemies. This is a huge deal that has absolutely no discussion in the press.

Could you expand on that? What is private prosecution and how does it differ from public prosecution?
#15190088
Certainly.

This article gives an overview:

Republican lawmakers’ move to ban nearly all abortions in Texas was accomplished through a huge, unprecedented expansion of who can bring a lawsuit against someone else: Under the law, anyone can sue anyone who performs, aids or intends to aid in an abortion — regardless of whether they have a personal stake in the abortion performed.

“It’s wide open,” said David Coal​​e, an appellate lawyer in Texas. “That is a radical expansion of the concept of standing.”

The expansion has far-reaching legal implications, legal experts say, by challenging the very notion of what a court is for and emboldening civilians to enforce law, a duty traditionally left to the government. It’s also a reversal by Texas Republicans on tort law, in which they have typically sought to limit the ability to sue, not expand it.


So here is an example. Suppose the concept of "standing" is reversed. Basically standing means that I must have been harmed in order that I seek redress through the courts. Suppose you sell me a drug to cure my sore shoulder and I get a rash from it. If I can show you have been negligent I can expect compensation. What if I could sue you even if I did not use your product. Suppose I could just sue and expect compensation because someone else got a rash.

Suppose I could sue an internet provider because there is pron on its servers and someone else's children might have seen it. Suppose a group of us want to stop this perfectly legal activity, (looking at adult material) because it offends our religious sensibilities. We could get thousands of like minded people to individually sue and force our religious beliefs on everyone else. We could do it because the internet provider can't afford to defend all of these cases.

We have, in the United States, an overriding government. That is tort law. This is frequently used to control behavior in the absence of statutes to control that behavior.

Even the civil war was not a threat to democracy. Both sides were democracies. In that regard it did not matter (to white people at least) who won. But if standing is watered down, all behavior will be subject to adjudication by the courts even when the legislature has declined to limit it.

I am articulating the wide interpretation. Even taking the narrow view, I would have the right to sue you because you were speeding even if I was not in any way involved. Private citizens could sue someone for smoking pot even though not personally involved.

If you prefer a more right centered example here it is: In Texas it is a crime to carry a gun in a bar. If I see someone do it I can call the police. The police could decide to warn the individual, cite them or arrest them. But I need not call the police. I can snap a picture of someone carrying a gun into a bar and sue them for it. I can do this even if I have never, nor will ever enter the bar or even know the person with the gun.

Well, you might say, the person with the gun will prevail in court because the judge will side with them. But I don't really want to go to court. I will just threaten to sue. That will cost the person (who knows he/she was wrong) a ton of money to defend. So, of course, they settle and I get money.

One more example. This one not many people know.

It is a violation of copyright to play a radio station or use an internet device as entertainment in a store or restaurant. There are people right now who contract with ASCAP to go around to stores, restaurants and other venues threatening to sue if they don't pay royalties. These vultures can do this because they are "hired" to do this by the people whose copyright has been infringed. But suppose I could sue someone for playing a Taylor Swift song without Taylor Swift's permission. And do it because copyright infringement is a criminal as well as civil offense. Ever see the "FBI warnings" at the beginning of a movie or video?

The concept of standing is the first line of defense against predatory lawsuits. Texas just abolished it and the SCOTUS has (so far) allowed them to do it.
#15190101
Republican lawmakers’ move to ban nearly all abortions in Texas was accomplished through a huge, unprecedented expansion of who can bring a lawsuit against someone else:

@AFAIK Here is the link.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/03/texas-republican-abortion-civil-lawsuits/
#15190102
Drlee wrote:Republican lawmakers’ move to ban nearly all abortions in Texas was accomplished through a huge, unprecedented expansion of who can bring a lawsuit against someone else:

@AFAIK Here is the link.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/03/texas-republican-abortion-civil-lawsuits/


In 82', the supreme court ruled that a government (state, county, city, etc.) cannot delegate away its power to private entities. This is basically that, right? The state has delegated its authority to private individuals and organizations.
#15190106
Rancid wrote:When will the death squads appear in my neighborhood.

Also what is up with people still calling him "president Trump?" DO they do that with other former presidents?


Are you serious?

Of course they do. President Trump has the legal right to use the title for the rest of his life.
#15190107
Well democrats get half the nuclear arsenal and 70% of the money given we make most of the money. Republicans get the other half of the nuke arsenal and 30% of the money given they made less of it. Divide the country into two separate states. Republicans can have their Nazi dictatorship with Trump as dictator. Democrats can have a state with free and fair elections with the American flag ad it's flag with less stars on it. Democrats and republicans don't have to deal with each other and everybody happy.
#15190109
@Rancid

Hmmm. Good point. You are probably correct and that this provision of the law is struck down when that hits the courts.

FUCK


Dude. You may have shown me how fucking diabolically cynical this so-called law is.

What you said motivated me to actually read the law. And sho'nuf you seem to have hit the nail on the head. Allow me a moment of drama.

So suppose I was a republican lawmaker who wanted to consolidate my base around the key issue of abortion. I have repeatedly promised to ban abortion but that pesky Roe V. Wade has stood in my way. Simply put, the government has a devil of a time banning or even severely limiting abortion.

So what these almost entirely white men did is put the onus to prosecute the state's will on private parties. It would be no different if the state did away with speeding enforcement but allowed any citizen to sue anyone going over the "speed limit". Here is how they did it:

Notwithstanding Section 171.005 or any other law, the
requirements of this subchapter shall be enforced exclusively
through the private civil actions described in Section 171.208. No
enforcement of this subchapter, and no enforcement of Chapters 19
and 22, Penal Code, in response to violations of this subchapter,
may be taken or threatened by this state, a political subdivision, a
district or county attorney, or an executive or administrative
officer or employee of this state or a political subdivision
against any person, except as provided in Section 171.208.


The only enforcement of the law is by private lawsuit. The state can't be blamed. And these mostly white men knew that there would be an endless number of extortionists willing to use this law to extort money from medical practitioners.

But they fucked up. My personal belief is that they never thought for a moment that the SCOTUS would allow the law to stand. They were certain that it would be struck down and they would have had their grandstand play, consolidated their base, and raised a shit ton of money. They misjudged the religious fervor of Justice Barrett and the need for revenge by our other right wing friend.

Now what they have is a political shit storm. Polls in March showed that the percentage of voters wanting relatively easy abortion at 38% and the number wanting a ban at 31%. Generally pro-life 41% and generally pro-choice at 50%. In today's political climate these are big differences. Americans in general are 51-36 against the law. Texas are too by a small plurality.

But here is how this will shake out.

Texas Republicans could have kicked this can down the road. They did not need to take the risk. And it is a huge risk. The mid terms are coming and they were eyeballing some iffy democratic seats from Texas. This issue will likely kick women in the ass and get them out to vote. It will mean nothing to men. It never has been a big issue with male voters who lie about it most of the time.

snip

The SCOTUS has agreed to hear the Mississippi case setting a 15 week time limit. They are due to rule just a few months before the mid terms. If they uphold the MS law they abolish Roe V. Wade ( or very seriously limit it) right before a national election. (See the numbers above.) There is no amount of money on earth that could hand this kind of a victory to democrats. And if they strike down the MS law, the Texas law goes south too, pissing off their base, energizing the opposition and generally playing old Harry with what would have been a cake-walk victory to the house and maybe the Senate.

They truly are the dog who caught the car.

snip

I have little to no faith in female voters. They have, time and again, shown themselves to be political non-players. They can barely get a few women in national office and seem to vote how their husbands tell them to vote. Oh I get that they took to the streets when Trump was elected but after a three month hissy fit they went home and cooked dinner and back to the office to play at what they believe being a man looks like. Did they come out and hand Biden a decisive victory? Black ones did. White women. Hardly.

But will this do it? Will this political train wreck finally get women to put on their finest passive-aggressive panties and in the anonymity of the voting booth get rid of these anti-woman Republicans? I hope so. I do not think so.

But I encourage everyone to read this Texas law. It is a fascinating look at how cowards try to do nothing while making the most noise possible. And all the time, with their fingers crossed behind their backs, praying to all that is Holy that the SCOTUS does what they really want it to do. Which is let them keep their big time, vote getting issue.

Because at the end of the day, if the SCOTUS lets these laws stand and abortion essentially goes away, those Republican women-single-issue voters will go looking for something else to back. And that means just about every Democrat social welfare program.
#15190114
This all sounds highly unsustainable to me @Drlee. I've revised my estimates based on your analysis of some key issues. America has <24 months left.

Compromising moves by Russia (nord stream 2 just completed, ongoing consolidation with belarus paving the way for further crimea-style expansionism this time on nato soil) and China (digital yuan about to be rapidly expanded challenging petro-dollar, rapid naval construction / expansion) followed by inherent housing crisis in the US alongside the debt and ongoing uncontrolled bill printing (8.5% inflation in 2021 relative to same month last year) and this is even before domestic political troubles and you have some kind of breaking point apporaching. What would accelerate it is more military adventurism, more debt, more highly dysfunctional politicking at home and abroad.

The end is nigh. Prep your care packages bois. I'm not even happy about it because the Australian Commonwealth would similarly disintegrate. Similar to the eastern bloc, the western bloc would see some dark decades ahead. Monki see monki do. But perhaps that's for the best. When this happens expect the expected:
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but after the dust settles?
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Just get a better flag pls in future these stripes are nasty.
#15190171
Putin and his toadies have been talking about stealing the rest of Ukraine. He's making no secret of it because he's testing Biden's resolve.

That puts Biden in an awkward position, politically moving American soldiers would be unpopular, but not strengthening their defenses would open Biden to accusations of weakness after Putin invades.

Saw Zelensky talking about it yesterday, he sounded like a man that in public is whistling past the graveyeard, and shitting bricks in private.
#15190173
Politics_Observer wrote:
@Drlee

Yeah, Igor is a fun troll. I get a kick out of some of his posts and trolls. He is Serbian, if you have ever gotten to know Serbs, they are like this. Funny and crazy.



I read the autobiography of a guy named Hill, who was a diplomat in Europe before and after the conflict. He also worked directly with the principals in what was formerly Yugoslavia. He had the impression they were mostly thugs that had little talent or education.

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