We shouldn't Taiwan on... - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

Wandering the information superhighway, he came upon the last refuge of civilization, PoFo, the only forum on the internet ...

Political issues and parties in the USA and Canada.

Moderator: PoFo North America Mods

Forum rules: No one line posts please.
By Rich
#15193633
late wrote:In 10 or 20 years, China can blockade Taiwan, and win without firing a shot.

They are patient..

Yes that's the difference between National Socialist China today and National Socialist Germany in the late 1930s. Germany couldn't sustain its build up. It lacked the resources of China. It couldn't afford to be patient.
#15193652
I don't buy the hyperbole that China has territorial ambitions beyond what it considers as Chinese territory in the 1920s - unlike Hitler who had written texts about Germany subjugating Eastern Europe and was quite explicit in his imperialist objectives. Anyone that says otherwise isn't actual listening to the CCP or watching their acts outside of that region.

I also don't buy that the entire Asian continent is eager to shed their blood to preserve a Western-led world order, whether that be India, Korea, or Japan. Most of China's neighbors have said as much explicitly: they have no desire to fight China and will not fight alongside the US.
#15193690
Fasces wrote:I also don't buy that the entire Asian continent is eager to shed their blood to preserve a Western-led world order, whether that be India, Korea, or Japan. Most of China's neighbors have said as much explicitly: they have no desire to fight China and will not fight alongside the US.


They probably won't fight for Taiwan, but they certainly want the US to fight alongside them if necessary.

Meanwhile India has already shed blood in border skirmishes.
#15193691
Political Interest wrote:Any contemplation of war with China is complete insanity. It's going to be nuclear, if not nuclear then a massive blood bath. We don't need such a war and we must avoid it at all costs. The last time American troops engaged the Chinese so close to their borders was in Korea and they were very nearly defeated. American over-confidence in their military capabilities is very dangerous. The US has not won a single war since WWII. Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and Korea have either resulted in complete defeats or stalemates. Why should her allies follow her into another adventure, this time to a bordering island of the second most powerful country in the world? The Chinese know exactly what they are doing and I'm not sure the Americans understand exactly who they are dealing with.


Pretty sure every military force in proximity to China is "contemplating" war with China. It would be insane not to do so.

The US won all its wars recently, it just couldn't win the peace. But it doesn't have to do that in Taiwan. China has to win the peace.

In fact I would argue the US little to lose from providing military support to Taiwan, if China invades and Taiwan fights it. It's not a fight anyone would expect the US to win in terms of territory gained/lost. It's rather about how costly the US can make such an invasion for China.
#15193724
India has. Korea, Japan, and Vietnam have all explicitly rejected US calls for a military alliance or military action against China.

Regardless, the idea that "we have plenty of boots because India will fight for us" is ridiculous and reveals a colonizer mindset. India has no more desire to preserve a Western led world order than China, and if China should somehow be contained and India goes on to develop to its potential, I fully expect we'll see all sorts of posts about "Indian IP theft", "Indian bad trade practices", "Human rights abuses in Kashmir", "Indian oppression in Karalia", etc etc as soon as they get into a similar position as China and threaten Western hegemony.

India has border disputes with China, sure, and may well want an independent Tibet (under Indian influence) due to China's ability to control India's water resources through Tibet, but if you expect millions of Indians to throw their lives away chasing regime change in China on behalf of the West, you're dreaming, and if you expect them to fight and die for Taiwan, I also don't buy it.
#15193743
Rugoz wrote:Pretty sure every military force in proximity to China is "contemplating" war with China. It would be insane not to do so.


India's foreign policy history since 1949 has been non-alignment. The territorial issues arose with China because they couldn't agree on the border. Nehru wanted to be close with Beijing, but they never fixed their borders, and there were other issues as well. India will not want to escalate over this, especially not for Taiwan. India -China relations are not completely frozen either, there are still contacts between the two countries. Japan might be more prepared, but Japan is not even allowed to have a proper military. There are also a lot of Japanese who would oppose such a war.

Rugoz wrote:The US won all its wars recently, it just couldn't win the peace. But it doesn't have to do that in Taiwan. China has to win the peace.


The last time American and Chinese soldiers fought each other was in Korea. Beijing sent 260,000 troops and they were able to push UN forces right back down the peninsula. The Chinese high command at this time were reluctant to get involved in the Korean War because they doubted their capabilities and didn't want an entanglement with the US. Turns out they were more than capable.

That happened close to their borders, they had a logistical advantage. They could mobilise forces from their interior very easily. That was in the early 1950s, imagine what they could do now. Taiwan is right by their coast. It seems to me that America would be highly disadvantaged under such conditions.

Taiwan is also very close to the mainland, they will not give up so easily. It would be a very tough fight, very tough indeed. It would either end in an extremely bloody stalemate (best case and unlikely scenario), nuclear exchange or complete American withdrawal from the conflict.

Rugoz wrote:In fact I would argue the US little to lose from providing military support to Taiwan, if China invades and Taiwan fights it. It's not a fight anyone would expect the US to win in terms of territory gained/lost. It's rather about how costly the US can make such an invasion for China.


Well, is it really worth fighting a war that can't be won? It's better to resolve the issue with as little bloodshed as possible. Maintaining calm and peaceful relations between Taipei and Beijing is most important.
#15193744
Fasces wrote:India has. Korea, Japan, and Vietnam have all explicitly rejected US calls for a military alliance or military action against China.


The US has a military alliance with both Korea and Japan. There's no broader alliance, but I think that's because Korea and Japan hate each other.

I also seriously doubt the US has called for military action against China.

:eh:

Fasces wrote:Regardless, the idea that "we have plenty of boots because India will fight for us" is ridiculous and reveals a colonizer mindset.


Said who? Straw man.

Fasces wrote:..but if you expect millions of Indians to throw their lives away chasing regime change in China on behalf of the West, you're dreaming, and if you expect them to fight and die for Taiwan, I also don't buy it.


More straw men. I didn't say I expect India to fight for Taiwan or for "regime change in China".

If anything the US will fight for those countries, not vice versa.
#15193748
Political Interest wrote:India's foreign policy history since 1949 has been non-alignment. The territorial issues arose with China because they couldn't agree on the border. Nehru wanted to be close with Beijing, but they never fixed their borders, and there were other issues as well. India will not want to escalate over this, especially not for Taiwan. India -China relations are not completely frozen either, there are still contacts between the two countries. Japan might be more prepared, but Japan is not even allowed to have a proper military. There are also a lot of Japanese who would oppose such a war.


The Indian military still prepares for a fight with China, because China is a potential enemy and that's what militaries do.

Political Interest wrote:The last time American and Chinese soldiers fought each other was in Korea. Beijing sent 260,000 troops and they were able to push UN forces right back down the peninsula. The Chinese high command at this time were reluctant to get involved in the Korean War because they doubted their capabilities and didn't want an entanglement with the US. Turns out they were more than capable.


China lost 600k soldiers in the Korean war while the US lost 37k. China was good at throwing meat into the grinder.

Political Interest wrote:That happened close to their borders, they had a logistical advantage. They could mobilise forces from their interior very easily. That was in the early 1950s, imagine what they could do now. Taiwan is right by their coast. It seems to me that America would be highly disadvantaged under such conditions.

Taiwan is also very close to the mainland, they will not give up so easily. It would be a very tough fight, very tough indeed. It would either end in an extremely bloody stalemate (best case and unlikely scenario), nuclear exchange or complete American withdrawal from the conflict.


As I said, I don't think the US could prevent a full-scale invasion, but it could give China a bloody nose.

Political Interest wrote:Well, is it really worth fighting a war that can't be won? It's better to resolve the issue with as little bloodshed as possible. Maintaining calm and peaceful relations between Taipei and Beijing is most important.


It's first and foremost about deterrence. I don't think Taiwan should declare independence or similar nonsense.
#15193753
Rugoz wrote:The US has a military alliance with both Korea and Japan. There's no broader alliance, but I think that's because Korea and Japan hate each other.

I also seriously doubt the US has called for military action against China.

:eh:


... why do you insist on being so contrarian about shit you obviously don't know anything about?

Japan won't fight China over Taiwan:

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics ... -taiwan-pm

SCMP wrote:Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has emphasised that, despite a reference to Taiwan in a joint statement released after his recent meeting with US President Joe Biden, there is no possibility of Japanese forces being committed to any military contingency surrounding Taiwan.


Korea:

https://www.cato.org/commentary/south-k ... urse-china

cato.org wrote:Moon Hee‐​sang argued that South Koreans across the ideological divide wanted to avoid involvement in a fight between the big boys “unless our survival is at stake.” The likelihood that the South would aid America in fighting China over Taiwan, Japan’s Senkaku Islands, or the Philippines’ Scarborough Shoal approaches zero.


Vietnam:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diploma ... ala-harris

In a meeting on Tuesday with Xiong Bo, the Chinese envoy to Hanoi, Pham said Vietnam had always maintained an independent foreign policy that prioritised self-reliance, multilateralism and diversification of ties, the Vietnam News Agency reported.
Pham said Vietnam would not ally with one country to fight another, and wished to enhance political trust with China, promote exchange and uphold cooperation.



Rugoz wrote:Said who? Straw man.


This very thread mate, come on.

Unthinking Majority wrote:What should be done upon Chinese invasion of Taiwan is to invoke the UN (it was created in response to WWII) and every free country worth its salt go all-in. India would probably be on our side, so we'd have boots. China can't defeat the world, that's the whole point of the UN. What's the point of the UN if its essential premise ain't worth a damn? The US has no need to go it alone and it should stop talking like they need to. This is not a US issue, it's an international issue of basic human rights, sovereignty, and self-determination.


It's getting sad, Rugoz.
#15193754
Fasces wrote:... why do you insist on being so contrarian about shit you obviously don't know anything about?

Japan won't fight China over Taiwan:


Jesus fucking Christ. I literally said several posts ago that they won't fight for Taiwan. Can you fucking read?

Fasces wrote:It's getting sad, Rugoz.


I missed that post from Unthinking Majority, but I certainly didn't say it.
#15193755
So your big point is that Korea and Japan will accept US help if China invades them?

Brilliant point man, you're a real Kissinger, class A analysis! You definately have the upper hand of this one! :roll:
#15193756
Fasces wrote:So your big point is that Korea and Japan will accept US help if China invades them?

Brilliant point man, you're a real Kissinger, class A analysis! You definately have the upper hand of this one! :roll:


I know it's trivial, you're the one being difficult.
#15193757
Silly me in a thread discussing the issue of Taiwan and an international reaction to the Chinese-Taiwan dispute to assume that we'd be focusing in on their relationship re: Taiwan, and not try to "win" points on pedantic nonsense. I'll word myself more carefully in the future.

Rugoz wrote:The US has a military alliance with both Korea and Japan.


This is factually wrong. Famously, the DPRK is very anti-American and has no defensive pact with the United States! :roll:
#15193762
Japan is a US protectorate. I don't know why people pretend there's some sort of mutual and reciprocal agreement between it and the US.
#15193777
Rugoz wrote:The Indian military still prepares for a fight with China, because China is a potential enemy and that's what militaries do.


Yes, they do. There are also very hardline anti-Chinese factions in India.

Rugoz wrote:China lost 600k soldiers in the Korean war while the US lost 37k. China was good at throwing meat into the grinder.


They still had massive victories, and that was before they had a modern military.

Rugoz wrote:As I said, I don't think the US could prevent a full-scale invasion, but it could give China a bloody nose.


And the reverse is true as well.

Rugoz wrote:I don't think Taiwan should declare independence or similar nonsense.


Glad we agree. Unfortunately the Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party seem intent on getting their independence at any cost. The West shouldn't be giving them any false comfort in thinking we're going to support their independence, because that will embolden them to reckless action.

It's very unfortunate that the issue can't be resolved peacefully. Whether they declare independence or the mainland just decide to invade a lot of people will die. I don't know why the Taiwanese don't just support the KMT.
#15193784
Rugoz wrote:Pretty sure every military force in proximity to China is "contemplating" war with China. It would be insane not to do so.

The US won all its wars recently, it just couldn't win the peace. But it doesn't have to do that in Taiwan. China has to win the peace.

In fact I would argue the US little to lose from providing military support to Taiwan, if China invades and Taiwan fights it. It's not a fight anyone would expect the US to win in terms of territory gained/lost. It's rather about how costly the US can make such an invasion for China.


This is a very good point that goes beyond the subject of this thread. There is a difference between winning a war, and imposing political will on a population after the war is won.

Back to the subject of the threat. In he event of a take over of Taiwan, the question would be, does the Taiwan population have the will to keep an insurgency sustained over many years, even decades? Or, would they just bend over and take it in the ass by Xi and his authoritarian fuck faces?
#15193786
@MistyTiger @Rancid

It is my view that deterrence is essential here in order to prevent war from breaking out. The Chinese must be convinced that if they try to invade Taiwan, they will fail. This means, arming the Taiwanese to the teeth. However, it is my view, that we should aid Taiwan, not so much to contain China so much as the fact that Taiwan is a democracy and defending Taiwan will make the world safer for democracy. Right now, both China and Russia are seeking to make the world safe for tyranny and oppression and establishing more dictatorships. They do this because the people in power in those countries want to retain that power and they know the only way to do that is to make the world safe for tyranny, oppression, dictatorship and authoritarianism. This is also what motivates them to threaten Taiwan too. It's about power for them.

This is not good for the world. But, wars cost a lot of money and lives for all sides, so the strategy we should be pursuing is that of deterrence as part of prevention of war. It might not be possible to prevent war, but we should have a strategy that centers around trying to do so. This means making the costs of invading Taiwan unacceptable to China. Part of such a strategy would be arming Taiwan to the teeth and providing substantial economic and military aid to the country. This will raise the costs to the Chinese for invading. Plus, give Taiwan anti-ship and anti-submarine capabilities as well as anti-air capabilities.
#15193795
Whatever we think of the Chinese govermment we must understand the consequences of such a war and why it should be avoided at all costs.

It is highy unlikely that if Taiwan tried to go for independence that it could succeed in attaining it, with or without Western support. The best option for Taipei would be to try to maintain as good a relationship as possible with the mainland, de facto independence within the framework of one country two systems.

This war would not change who governs mainland China either.
#15193941
Political Interest wrote:They still had massive victories, and that was before they had a modern military.


Did they? The invasion of Vietnam was a distaster too.

Political Interest wrote:Glad we agree. Unfortunately the Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party seem intent on getting their independence at any cost. The West shouldn't be giving them any false comfort in thinking we're going to support their independence, because that will embolden them to reckless action.


The DPP has been in power since 2016. I don't remember Taiwan declaring independence. AFAIK independence is not even in the DPP's program.

Political Interest wrote:It's very unfortunate that the issue can't be resolved peacefully. Whether they declare independence or the mainland just decide to invade a lot of people will die. I don't know why the Taiwanese don't just support the KMT.


But the Kuomintang are the fascists! :lol:
#15193960
I think the US would be very willing to go to war with China over Taiwan. I wouldn't brush this off, but at the same time, due to China's strategy here, there will be no war.

Here's why war is very possible:
- There's already distrust of the CCP in the general American public, so the sell to the American public wouldn't be hard. What makes the sell of war easier is that it would not be sold as a nation building experiment (no need for that). It would be sold as an existential threat to freedom itself. Nothing unites people behind war, like an existential threat. It's why it was so easy to go into Afghanistan/Iraq after 9/11. The difference here, is that there is no need to try and impose a new system of government on Taiwan. It's to preserver their current system. Hence, no need to nation build. It really is just a military campaign to defend an island. As stated before, the US is good at winning wars.

- I don't think Americans are weary of another global war either. Americans like war like they like brain injury inducing American football.

- If Taiwan self-determines and requests for help from the US, why wouldn't they help? What easier way to recognize the independence of Taiwan than to come to their aid when they request it.

- The importance of Taiwan to global business, global supply chains, and global corporations (many of which are American) is too great to have fall into the hands of the authoritarian CCP. At a minimum, nations in the region would be for such a conflict. Depending on the pull European corporations have on the EU, they could get behind it, or at a minimum, turn a blind eye.

Here's why war is very not likely to happen though:
Xi is smart, obviously. I think his vague quasi-threats of taking things by force, is just talk to stoke nationalism domestically. He knows all of the above I stated. He knows the best thing to do is to wait until the rest of the world deleverages its supply chains from Taiwan (will take a decade or two). At which point, they can waltz in without a shot.

To China, the importance of Taiwan isn't business. The importance to them, will always be there. The importance of Taiwan to the rest of the world is business (not preserving freedom, that's just a secondary reason, and not a good enough reason to he powers that be). Thus, it will wain as global economics shifts and changes now that the risk of exporting your supply chain abroad and to authoritarian shitholes is becoming more real. I would argue, COVID will help to accelerate this supply deleveraging further. THus, this day may come sooner than before.
Last edited by Rancid on 10 Oct 2021 16:30, edited 1 time in total.

@KurtFF8 Litwin wages a psyops war here but we […]

[usermention=41202] @late[/usermention] Are you[…]

[usermention=41202] @late[/usermention] The[…]

I (still) have a dream

Because the child's cattle-like parents "fol[…]