Rugoz wrote:Pretty sure every military force in proximity to China is "contemplating" war with China. It would be insane not to do so.
India's foreign policy history since 1949 has been non-alignment. The territorial issues arose with China because they couldn't agree on the border. Nehru wanted to be close with Beijing, but they never fixed their borders, and there were other issues as well. India will not want to escalate over this, especially not for Taiwan. India -China relations are not completely frozen either, there are still contacts between the two countries. Japan might be more prepared, but Japan is not even allowed to have a proper military. There are also a lot of Japanese who would oppose such a war.
Rugoz wrote:The US won all its wars recently, it just couldn't win the peace. But it doesn't have to do that in Taiwan. China has to win the peace.
The last time American and Chinese soldiers fought each other was in Korea. Beijing sent 260,000 troops and they were able to push UN forces right back down the peninsula. The Chinese high command at this time were reluctant to get involved in the Korean War because they doubted their capabilities and didn't want an entanglement with the US. Turns out they were more than capable.
That happened close to their borders, they had a logistical advantage. They could mobilise forces from their interior very easily. That was in the early 1950s, imagine what they could do now. Taiwan is right by their coast. It seems to me that America would be highly disadvantaged under such conditions.
Taiwan is also very close to the mainland, they will not give up so easily. It would be a very tough fight, very tough indeed. It would either end in an extremely bloody stalemate (best case and unlikely scenario), nuclear exchange or complete American withdrawal from the conflict.
Rugoz wrote:In fact I would argue the US little to lose from providing military support to Taiwan, if China invades and Taiwan fights it. It's not a fight anyone would expect the US to win in terms of territory gained/lost. It's rather about how costly the US can make such an invasion for China.
Well, is it really worth fighting a war that can't be won? It's better to resolve the issue with as little bloodshed as possible. Maintaining calm and peaceful relations between Taipei and Beijing is most important.