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#15200907
I keep thinking that what England needs is Winston Churchill. If you are new here, or inattentive, I have been harshly critical of Churchill forever. The man was a massive screwup, but he had one truly amazing year.

He understood Russia reasonably well. He wouldn't have put up with this sh*t. It's funny, after heralding Churchill as some sort of god, Republicans are now at the opposite end of the spectrum from him. Don't get me wrong, Churchill was a massive screwup, but he knew when enough was enough.

This puts me in an awkward position, an extremely awkward position. But, whatever you want to call me, I'm stuck with being me, and it looks to me that it will be a lot easier to stop Putin's aggression now, before he conquers a few more countries and gets to like the taste of it.

I've been ridiculed repeatedly for advocating R&D for active measures to limit climate change. But the research tells a story that is dark. The West is drying up, so do we spend trillions on desalination, or a couple T piping an unbelievable amount of water down from Alaska? Or does California simply lose most of it's people?

Which brings up all the other ways we are failing to adapt to changing circumstances.

I have this thing in my head that pops up whenever I get this way. I was certain we would have WW3, and we did get close to it a number of times. But we got past it. I know, it's customary to say we won, but looking back, that was the same moment when Reagan pushed us towards income inequality, and eventual economic collapse. The USSR did collapse, but we didn't come out unscathed.. But... my pessimism was totally wrong.

You ever wonder how the anti-slavery party become the party trying to restore apartheid? From Lincoln's soaring rhetoric, to Trumps babbling... to a party that no longer deserves a place in a civilised country.
#15201182
The Democrats' Welfare State has done more to perpetuate racial inequality than the evilest machinations you could ever accuse the GOP of.
#15201187
late wrote:I have this thing in my head that pops up whenever I get this way. I was certain we would have WW3, and we did get close to it a number of times. But we got past it.


WWIII happens when China invades Taiwan. When that happens, Putin makes his move. We can't win a war on multiple fronts and we can't beat China.
#15201191
anna wrote:
WWIII happens when China invades Taiwan. When that happens, Putin makes his move. We can't win a war on multiple fronts and we can't beat China.


If enough of the world cares, they could easily put the smack down on China and Russia. China/Russia would have a harder time as being an occupier is much harder than simply beating back a scourge such as Russia and CHina.
#15201257
anna wrote:
WWIII happens when China invades Taiwan. When that happens, Putin makes his move. We can't win a war on multiple fronts and we can't beat China.



Doubt it.

Clinton admitted we wouldn't go to war over Taiwan. That's always been obvious, but not the sort of thing one says in public..

Once China gets a serious navy, they can blockade Taiwan, and win without firing a shot. The reason it hasn't happened earlier is that China was laser focused on building their economy. That changed when Xi became leader for life.

Russia has an economy about the size of Italy. It's not going to get better. Russia spends way too much on it's military, but war is ungodly expensive. They would also be attacking their best customers, and that's always awkward.

If WW3 does start, it's likely to happen where you don't expect it, like the Middle East, or India/Pakistan.
#15201261
late wrote:I keep thinking that what England needs is Winston Churchill. If you are new here, or inattentive, I have been harshly critical of Churchill forever. The man was a massive screwup, but he had one truly amazing year.

He understood Russia reasonably well. He wouldn't have put up with this sh*t. It's funny, after heralding Churchill as some sort of god, Republicans are now at the opposite end of the spectrum from him. Don't get me wrong, Churchill was a massive screwup, but he knew when enough was enough.


Well I am not a massive fan of Churchill either. But that has more to do with his racist language and views on Eugenics. But he was no screw up. He replaced a screw up I might add.
#15201262
anna wrote:WWIII happens when China invades Taiwan. When that happens, Putin makes his move. We can't win a war on multiple fronts and we can't beat China.


Actually, you make a strong point. Russia hasn't invaded anyone or been the aggressor in most instances and 'their shit' is merely defending their geopolitically position. But should China invade Taiwan and America tries to defend Taiwan (Biden current position), Russia will of course be on Chinas side and then they will invade Eastern Europe as Germany did on France and Japan on China. America would then be fighting from two points, and they couldn't win a war on one front rather than two.

My opinion is that America will clearly know this and not defend Taiwan and as such Russia will remain muted so this point is moot. Russia are perhaps opportunists but I don't believe for a second they will invade Ukraine. That is Western propaganda. :|
#15201263
B0ycey wrote:
Well I am not a massive fan of Churchill either. But that has more to do with his racist language and views on Eugenics. But he was no screw up. He replaced a screw up I might add.



Look at his whole career, it's full of screwups. Like when he get England to build a very expensive 3rd naval fleet shortly before a massive land war started.
#15201264
late wrote:Look at his whole career, it's full of screwups. Like when he get England to build a very expensive 3rd naval fleet shortly before a massive land war started.


What fuck you talking about? He was a war PM and any decisions he made was when he was in power which was during a war. His main objective and responsibility was winning a war, which he did. The UK didn't even need to go to war if Chamberlain had actually prevented Germany from building an army and going against the Armistice. Churchill was very warmongering and was giving advice (which was never adhered to) to expect and plan for war right from the beginning. So which fucking screw up are you talking about? Building a navy rather than an airforce when he wasn't in charge? OK late. I will just put this thread down as yet another clueless post by you. But kudos that it was more than one line for once. :lol:
#15201268
B0ycey wrote:
Well his career was deemed successful. So you're wrong... like always.



Thanks for the laugh.

He is well regarded for one year, but he was magnificent for that year. While the opinions of historians often diverge, this is where I got my opinion.

Because it's not my country, and you've clearly invested in this, there isn't a reason for me to continue.
#15201269
late wrote:Thanks for the laugh.

He is well regarded for one year, but he was magnificent for that year. While the opinions of historians often diverge, this is where I got my opinion.

Because it's not my country, and you've clearly invested in this, there isn't a reason for me to continue.


Well it is my country and I am not a fan of Churchill given his opinions and statements away from war. At this moment in time you have made a statement and not backed it up which is something you do a lot. Hence the laugh. By the way it is me laughing at you at this moment in time. If historians think of Churchill as a failure, that shouldn't be hard for you to prove btw.

He was a war PM and was on the winning side. That isn't a screw up and it would be interesting to know what year of the war was successful.
#15201293
B0ycey wrote:Actually, you make a strong point. Russia hasn't invaded anyone or been the aggressor in most instances and 'their shit' is merely defending their geopolitically position. But should China invade Taiwan and America tries to defend Taiwan (Biden current position), Russia will of course be on Chinas side and then they will invade Eastern Europe as Germany did on France and Japan on China. America would then be fighting from two points, and they couldn't win a war on one front rather than two.


Pretty much my thinking. Russia is right now deepening an alliance with China. Putin wants to expand his borders because he wants the old USSR back. China has what Russia doesn't have enough of - geopolitical power, money and human cannon fodder. Russia will move as soon as the China/US shit starts hitting the fan. Re: Taiwan, the US is in a no-win situation. We stand by and do nothing while China invades Taiwan, and China is de facto the world superpower. We defend Taiwan militarily and it's a WWIII we can't win. China is already showing us, not telling us this, like with their hypersonic "mystery weapon" that released its own payload.

My opinion is that America will clearly know this and not defend Taiwan and as such Russia will remain muted so this point is moot. Russia are perhaps opportunists but I don't believe for a second they will invade Ukraine. That is Western propaganda. :|


I don't know what the US will do, it could go either way, particularly by whether Biden has a second term. I do disagree wrt Russia, it seems quite possible that's exactly what they'll do. Why are they massing their troops on the border at this very moment?
#15201299
late wrote:Doubt it.

Clinton admitted we wouldn't go to war over Taiwan. That's always been obvious, but not the sort of thing one says in public..


Clinton was yesterday.

Once China gets a serious navy


They have a serious navy. It's bigger than ours now.

they can blockade Taiwan, and win without firing a shot.


Right. And the world will know the U.S. and the West couldn't stop them from doing it, which positions China as the world superpower.

Russia has an economy about the size of Italy. It's not going to get better. Russia spends way too much on it's military, but war is ungodly expensive. They would also be attacking their best customers, and that's always awkward.


China and Russia are deepening their mutual defense ties as we type.

If WW3 does start, it's likely to happen where you don't expect it, like the Middle East, or India/Pakistan.


That's always possible. Who expected Franz Ferdinand?
#15201310
anna wrote:Pretty much my thinking. Russia is right now deepening an alliance with China. Putin wants to expand his borders because he wants the old USSR back. China has what Russia doesn't have enough of - geopolitical power, money and human cannon fodder. Russia will move as soon as the China/US shit starts hitting the fan. Re: Taiwan, the US is in a no-win situation. We stand by and do nothing while China invades Taiwan, and China is de facto the world superpower. We defend Taiwan militarily and it's a WWIII we can't win. China is already showing us, not telling us this, like with their hypersonic "mystery weapon" that released its own payload.


Indeed!!!

Yes, this is where my line of thought is too!

I don't know what the US will do, it could go either way, particularly by whether Biden has a second term. I do disagree wrt Russia, it seems quite possible that's exactly what they'll do. Why are they massing their troops on the border at this very moment?


Deep down I know what the US will do. Because if two users on the Internet can see what war will mean, the US government and Biden in particular will see it also.

Bidens rhetoric is just that. He has to make China/Taiwan believe the US will get involved, if anything just so Taiwan will maintain a form of resistance if invasion happens and for China delay invasion whilst reunification is possible to occur peacefully. But ultimately the US cannot win a war in the South China Sea, will lose all their aircraft carriers whilst at the same time risking nuclear war which will flatten all major US cities if they decide to take China on. No president is going to destroy the world, or the existence of the US on Taiwan. It simply won't happen. Instead they will just do what they did with Crimea and hand out sanctions to China. So if the US want to get serious with China, they need to think about looking elsewhere for economic partnerships so such a split isn't an economic disaster for them.

As for Russia, and why they are building troops up at their border, well that is to piss NATO off and to confuse US intelligence - like they did with their training exercise at their border last year. There is no reason for them to invade Ukraine given civil war is to their advantage right now. Also involvement in Ukraine beyond Crimea will give NATO an excuse to enter Ukraine as they are a sovereign state who will ask for assistance to protect itself from Russia. So perhaps not a smart move for Russia given I have no doubt the US will get involved in protecting Ukraine without a second thought once such a call is made.

Nonetheless, having said that Russia are opportunists and they will of course enter Eastern Europe if the US defends Taiwan I suspect. They might not be preparing for war now, but they won't hesitate to gain ground on US stupidity. And perhaps it is the future why they are exercising on their border now.
#15201320
anna wrote:
Clinton was yesterday.



They have a serious navy. It's bigger than ours now.



Right. And the world will know the U.S. and the West couldn't stop them from doing it, which positions China as the world superpower.



China and Russia are deepening their mutual defense ties as we type.



That's always possible. Who expected Franz Ferdinand?



Thanks for the laugh.

Our policy towards Taiwan has been the same for most of my life, and I can remember dinosaurs.

They have one aircraft carrier, and it's a joke. Their subs are old Russian designs. They are improving fast, in 20 or 30 years, you will be correct.

Nope, it will mean they are dominant in the South China sea, which will make them the regional hegemon.

Yes, of course. But Russia and China have a love/hate relationship. Don't expect them to stay lovebirds.

Indeed.
#15201322
Does Xi Jingping have enemies domestically? That is, are there any groups of people within the CCP that are plotting against him? Or, does he really have a super firm grip on the structures of power within the CCP and government?

russia/china alliance is one of convenience, and they are actually more at odds culturally and historically. That will eventually bubble up again in the future. Once China doesn't need Russia, we may see a Russia aligned with US/EU in the long term after Putin is dead.
#15201325
late wrote:Thanks for the laugh.

Our policy towards Taiwan has been the same for most of my life, and I can remember dinosaurs.

They have one aircraft carrier, and it's a joke. Their subs are old Russian designs. They are improving fast, in 20 or 30 years, you will be correct.

Nope, it will mean they are dominant in the South China sea, which will make them the regional hegemon.

Yes, of course. But Russia and China have a love/hate relationship. Don't expect them to stay lovebirds.

Indeed.


Over Taiwan, China and Russia will be lovebirds. And yes Chinas navy is getting stronger. But it should be said that in terms of the South China Sea, they don't need their navy. They have Air supremacy. Do you think the US Air carriers can keep up with that?
#15201327
Rancid wrote:Does Xi Jingping have enemies domestically? That is, are there any groups of people within the CCP that are plotting against him? Or, does he really have a super firm grip on the structures of power within the CCP and government?


I doubt it. If he did, they won't remain free for long.

russia/china alliance is one of convenience, and they are actually more at odds culturally and historically. That will eventually bubble up again in the future. Once China doesn't need Russia, we may see a Russia aligned with US/EU in the long term after Putin is dead.


I wouldn't say they are an alliance now. They might have done a few training exercises together but ultimately what makes them friends is they both have the same ideology of national pride and they want to improve their economic partnership. Russia have gas and oil and China want that. But Russia won't get involved in Taiwan, the same way China didn't get involved with Syria (When Russia did). They both will however assist each other from the fringes. And maybe exploit a situation if it arises. The same way Japan did in regards to western superiority in East Asia during WW2.

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