Incoming Recession - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By colliric
#15206918
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america ... 112-p59njz

This is what happens when you go from a president that understands financial markets and how dire the current financial situation is in the United States and the fact it needs to be fixed fast, to one that doesn't even know what day of the week it is.

Current incoming recession is entirely Biden's fault not actively handling the inflation crisis, not cutting taxes, not forgiving student debt, not giving out enough stimulus checks.
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By colliric
#15207036
ckaihatsu wrote:Classic 'dilemma' -- damned if you do, damned if you don't. Thanks, capitalism.


Trump had good financial, economic and taxation policies. It's called "throwing the baby out with the bathwater'.

If you have no respect for your opponent at all and think he's the New Hitler, you're going to be stupid enough to toss all the good stuff as well.

Now China, Russia and India are the only real superpowers in the world.
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By ckaihatsu
#15207039
colliric wrote:
Trump had good financial, economic and taxation policies. It's called "throwing the baby out with the bathwater'.

If you have no respect for your opponent at all and think he's the New Hitler, you're going to be stupid enough to toss all the good stuff as well.

Now China, Russia and India are the only real superpowers in the world.




The Trump administration often used economic pressure to advance its foreign policy goals.[19] Trump's import tariffs agitated trade partners and triggered a trade war with China.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_p ... nistration



Sanctions:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of ... s_programs
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By ckaihatsu
#15207040

Notable opponents

Democrats opposed the legislation, viewing it as a giveaway to corporations and high earners at the expense of middle class communities.[218] Every House Democrat voted against the bill when it came to the House floor; they were joined by 13 Republicans who voted against it.[186]

The top congressional Democrats—Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi—strongly oppose the bill. Schumer said of the bill that "The more it's in sunlight, the more it stinks."[219] Pelosi said the legislation was "designed to plunder the middle class to put into the pockets of the wealthiest 1 percent more money. ... It raises taxes on the middle class, millions of middle-class families across the country, borrows trillions from the future, from our children and grandchildren's futures to give tax cuts to the wealthiest and encourages corporations to ship jobs overseas."[220]

The 13 House Republicans who voted against the bill were mostly from New York, New Jersey, and California, and were opposed to the bill's elimination of the state and local income tax deduction in the bill, which benefits those states.[221]

Billionaire and former Mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg called this tax bill an "economically indefensible blunder" arguing that companies would not invest more because of the tax cuts: "Corporations are sitting on a record amount of cash reserves: nearly $2.3 trillion. That figure has been climbing steadily since the recession ended in 2009, and it's now double what it was in 2001. The reason CEOs aren't investing more of their liquid assets has little to do with the tax rate."[222]

Bill Gates and Warren Buffett also thought that Trump's tax cut would not help businesses.[223] In a CNBC interview, Buffett even said: "I don't need a tax cut in a society with so much inequality".[224]

In a letter made public on the November 12, 2017, more than 400 millionaires and billionaires (which include George Soros and Steven Rockefeller) asked Congress to reject the Republican tax plan. They note that it would disproportionately benefit the wealthy, while adding at least $1.5 trillion in tax cuts to the current national debt. This deficit "would leave us unable to meet our country's current needs and restrict us in advancing any future investments," the letter continues.[225][226][227]

The Economist has also been critical of the tax cut and its lack of long-term vision: "The expiry of tax cuts for individuals is a ticking time-bomb in the tax code. It will explode just as America approaches a budget crisis, driven by rising spending on health care and pensions for the elderly. This gap will probably eventually be plugged by a combination of tax rises and spending cuts. But by cutting taxes now, Republicans have moved the starting point for any future negotiations.".[228]

The Financial Times argued that this bill was "built for plutocrats" as it would mainly benefit very high income households ("45 per cent of the tax reductions in 2027 would go to households with incomes above $500,000 - fewer than 1 per cent of filers"). It concluded by stating: "The US the world once knew is drowning in a tide of unconscionable and apparently unlimited greed. We are all now doomed to live with the unhappy consequences.".[229]

The Editorial Board of The New York Times vigorously opposed the bill: "This bill is bad enough. No less revolting is the dishonest and sneaky way it was written.".[230] In an article published in August 2018, it noted that none of the benefits that the GOP promised had been delivered. Corporate investments did not increase, real wages were down and corporate tax revenue plummeted. The article ended with the following statement: "Today, many Republicans seem to realize that the tax cut has become a political liability. Even they realize that it doesn't do any of what they promised.".[231]

Editorial Boards of major US newspapers including USA Today,[232] The Washington Post,[233] The Los Angeles Times,[234] The San Francisco Chronicle[235] and The Boston Globe[236] also opposed the bill.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Cuts_ ... _opponents
#15207050
colliric wrote:https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/severe-threat-high-inflation-could-lead-to-recession-powell-says-20220112-p59njz

This is what happens when you go from a president that understands financial markets and how dire the current financial situation is in the United States and the fact it needs to be fixed fast, to one that doesn't even know what day of the week it is.

Current incoming recession is entirely Biden's fault not actively handling the inflation crisis, not cutting taxes, not forgiving student debt, not giving out enough stimulus checks.


Biden is doing really good economically. Record economic growth, employment growth and so on after Trump. Even wage growth and real wage growth are good.

There is always a risk of recession because our economies follow the boom and bust cycle and we are due to have a bust since the last major crysis was 14 years ago. This is very extraordinary since usually they happen quicker.

Is inflation by itself really problematic? Well not really. The fed will probably increase interest rates to cope with it and to bring it down to European levels. What that interest rate change will do to overall economy is hard to tell though, it will slow it down a bit but overall the interest rates will not be catastrophically high and not even close to that.
By late
#15207057
colliric wrote:
This is what happens when you go from a president that understands financial markets and how dire the current financial situation is in the United States and the fact it needs to be fixed fast, to one that doesn't even know what day of the week it is.

Current incoming recession is entirely Biden's fault not actively handling the inflation crisis, not cutting taxes, not forgiving student debt, not giving out enough stimulus checks.



That is bass ackwards.

Over the course of his life, Trump has lost something in the neighborhood of a trillion bucks... he's an idiot.

Neither Trump or Biden has a good understanding of economics. You can count the number of politicians that do on one hand, with Liz Warren leaving the others in the dust.

Most economists didn't like the Trump tax cut. You goose the economy when, and where, it needs it. The economy didn't need it back then, and neither did the rich. In fact, that money drove up asset prices years ago. That's inflationary, in a weird way. For example stocks cost a LOT more than they used to, and without good reason.

Some economists wanted to Biden to do more, some wanted less. But the economy needed some sort of stimulus. My complaint about it is that it didn't address infrastructure problems. Which is another way of saying it wasn't tightly focused. But that's politics for ya...

There was a serious risk of recession the day Biden became president. There is less now, the problem is inflation. That should be manageable, it's not a major crisis.

You are letting idiots lead you around by the nose.
By Istanbuller
#15207199
colliric wrote:Current incoming recession is entirely Biden's fault... not forgiving student debt, not giving out enough stimulus checks.

If he did these, the economy would be worse now. It is nice that he doesn't/can't do these things or Republicans do not allow him.
ckaihatsu wrote:Classic 'dilemma' -- damned if you do, damned if you don't. Thanks, capitalism.

There can't be crisis in capitalism. It is anti-capitalists who manipulate things and lead to crisis.
JohnRawls wrote:Biden is doing really good economically. Record economic growth, employment growth and so on after Trump. Even wage growth and real wage growth are good.

There is always a risk of recession because our economies follow the boom and bust cycle and we are due to have a bust since the last major crysis was 14 years ago. This is very extraordinary since usually they happen quicker.

Is inflation by itself really problematic? Well not really. The fed will probably increase interest rates to cope with it and to bring it down to European levels. What that interest rate change will do to overall economy is hard to tell though, it will slow it down a bit but overall the interest rates will not be catastrophically high and not even close to that.

It depends on where you look at. Democrats and Republicans have different viewpoints. But it is entirely pathetic to see Democrats try to ignore inflation problem. It is the highest inflation rate seen in last 40 years in America.

There is no real output growth in US economy. They just pass spending legislations in Congress to boost gdp figures artificially. The Fed's interest rate hikes won't solve the inflation problem as Biden prints and spends more and more money each day.
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By JohnRawls
#15207201
Istanbuller wrote:If he did these, the economy would be worse now. It is nice that he doesn't/can't do these things or Republicans do not allow him.

There can't be crisis in capitalism. It is anti-capitalists who manipulate things and lead to crisis.

It depends on where you look at. Democrats and Republicans have different viewpoints. But it is entirely pathetic to see Democrats try to ignore inflation problem. It is the highest inflation rate seen in last 40 years in America.

There is no real output growth in US economy. They just pass spending legislations in Congress to boost gdp figures artificially. The Fed's interest rate hikes won't solve the inflation problem as Biden prints and spends more and more money each day.


Increased rates is downward pressure on inflation. That is how economy is viewed nowadays anyways that it is a system of reinforcing or discouraging trends. While increasing rates will not remove all of the inflation but it will still help it greatly. Majority of European Inflation is the increased energy prices for example, out of 4.9 to 5% inflation this year 3/4ths of it are the currently ridiculous energy prices.
By Istanbuller
#15207202
JohnRawls wrote:Increased rates is downward pressure on inflation. That is how economy is viewed nowadays anyways that it is a system of reinforcing or discouraging trends. While increasing rates will not remove all of the inflation but it will still help it greatly. Majority of European Inflation is the increased energy prices for example, out of 4.9 to 5% inflation this year 3/4ths of it are the currently ridiculous energy prices.

The US's inflation problem is resulted from Biden and Democrat's policies.

Before trillion dollar spending bills passed, Biden openly insisted that he doesn't have plans to combat price hikes and inflation. Democrats do these things despite knowing that it triggers inflation.
By late
#15207205
Istanbuller wrote:
The US's inflation problem is resulted from Biden and Democrat's policies.

Before trillion dollar spending bills passed, Biden openly insisted that he doesn't have plans to combat price hikes and inflation. Democrats do these things despite knowing that it triggers inflation.



Inflation started being a problem about 50 years ago..
By Istanbuller
#15207207
late wrote:Inflation started being a problem about 50 years ago..

No, it doesn't. You can't blame the fault on others. It is naive if they thought that their policies result different this time. :lol:
By late
#15207211
Istanbuller wrote:

No, it doesn't. You can't blame the fault on others. It is naive if they thought that their policies result different this time.




You don't know what you're talking about...

The rising debt levels dropped the value of the dollar. This was largely the result of military spending, which has been mostly bipartisan. I first noticed that in 1973, it started earlier...

Republican tax cuts, over the last 40 years, played a role, as did spending on war. We spent over 4 trillion on Iraq alone.

The timing of the Trump tax cut was particularly bad, thanks to the pandemic.

When Biden took office we had a choice. We risked inflation, or deflation. Economists are a lot more afraid of deflation.

Which is to say what Biden did was a reasonable response to the crisis. Most economists expect the inflation to abate as things get better.
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By colliric
#15207215
Alot of economists in the US don't believe the inflation problem will be solved by the government. Alot of them are pushing "guess what" as the solution, or hedge, to inflation.
By late
#15207221
colliric wrote:
A lot of economists in the US don't believe the inflation problem will be solved by the government. A lot of them are pushing "guess what" as the solution, or hedge, to inflation.



"All the reporting these days is about rising prices. And I get that: A 7 percent surge in the Consumer Price Index over the past year comes as a shock, especially because so many people, myself included, didn’t see it coming.

But there’s another story that should be getting more attention: America’s extraordinary success in limiting the damage from a horrifying pandemic. In fact, there’s a good chance that in retrospect we’ll view economic management over the past two years as a policy triumph, despite the inflation spike.

Early in the pandemic many observers feared that we were about to experience a replay of the 2008 financial crisis, only worse. There were, in fact, a couple of weeks in March 2020 when the financial system teetered on the edge of collapse.

Economic forecasters surveyed in the spring of 2020 expected the average unemployment rate in 2022 to be above 6 percent. In fact, it’s already down to 3.9 percent, only slightly higher than before the coronavirus struck.

But what about inflation? There’s no question that we could have had lower inflation right now if we’d accepted a slower employment recovery. But would that have been a trade-off worth making?

The clear answer is that restoring full employment was more important than avoiding inflation if — a big if — inflation eventually subsides.

At this point, however, there is little evidence that inflation is getting entrenched. The bond market is implicitly forecasting high inflation this year but not beyond; the point isn’t that the market is necessarily right, but rather that one important measure of inflation expectations shows no sign that people are betting on a return to the 1970s. Consumer surveys tell a similar story: High expected inflation over the next year, but much less over the next five years, which is implicitly a forecast of returning normalcy."

Nobel winning economist Paul Krugman

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/opinion/pandemic-economic-recovery.html
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By Rancid
#15207225
I'm hoping the increase in interest rates finally puts some sort of damper on the crazy hosing costs.

People/Media:
"Interest rates are low! Inflation inflation. We heading for disaster! oh no!!"

People/Media:
"Don't raise interest rates! That will slow the economy!"

You can't have your cake and eat it too people.

ANyway, I'm all for the interest rate hike. Let's do it! All easy money does is make rich people richer.
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By JohnRawls
#15207227
Rancid wrote:I'm hoping the increase in interest rates finally puts some sort of damper on the crazy hosing costs.

People/Media:
"Interest rates are low! Inflation inflation. We heading for disaster! oh no!!"

People/Media:
"Don't raise interest rates! That will slow the economy!"

You can't have your cake and eat it too people.

ANyway, I'm all for the interest rate hike. Let's do it! All easy money does is make rich people richer.


No, it is a question of supply and demand. There is too much demand right now and higher interest rates are not going to fix that unless they are substantially higher which will not be the case. Also people buying housing is not a bad thing in itself. Higher housing demand is good if it is the citizens of your own country buying them and not people who just want to resell or invest.
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By Fasces
#15207238
Rancid wrote:I'm hoping the increase in interest rates finally puts some sort of damper on the crazy hosing costs.


Won't stop as long as land speculators like Zillow and [foreigners] are allowed to run wild.
By late
#15207242
Fasces wrote:
Won't stop as long as land speculators like Zillow and [foreigners] are allowed to run wild.



Looks like a bubble.

I'd like to see regulation, but we will likely let them crash the market, and take down the economy along with it, first.
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By Fasces
#15207245
Bubbles burst and hurt the little guy. They do not hurt the not multi billion dollar conglomerates that can ride the wave, hold the land, and convince other investors to join in as they scoop up all those nicely cheap foreclosed properties to ride the next swell. They do not hurt the foreign oligarch using domestic land-holdings as a safety deposit box.

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