[Rich]

Precisely. The British political system has nothing to do with directly expressing "the will of the people", and everything to do with enabling the ruling class to keep things ticking over nicely without being beholden to the fickle will of an uninformed electorate. By calling that referendum, Cameron threw a giant spanner into the works. Lol.

Your words do rather remind me of Trotsky's formulations which was something like the Vanguard party must not be subject to the fickle will of the proletariat. All Russian Soviet Congresses were initially frequent and City wide Soviet recall could be very fast, but genuine Soviet democracy didn't even last a year. It was over by the autumn of 1918. The October coup was not against the Provisional government whose power was tawdry and failing fast, but a coup against the Soviets.

Cameron has certainly unleashed some chaos, but I still can't hear the fat lady singing can you? This was another brilliant night for May. She didn't want us to leave on the 29th March, but she didn't want to be responsible for leaving. Because of the Spellman amendment She even got to whip against the motion, not to leave without a deal. A powerful Prime Minister can use the government to enact her agenda. But May is way beyond that. She can get the Opposition to enact her agenda.

[Nonsense]

I would be lying if i said Ireland will not get a large chunk of UK firms and investment. The issue is that No Deal is a big loss to Ireland because of the Northern Irish question. While it is not a big loss for France and the Dutch. Yes, the ports will have issues and they will need to hire more personal which they already did. But that is about it, France and the Netherlands can source imports from other places because they are part of the EU if needed. It doesn't work that way for the UK. So the blow to the Dutch and French is overestimated.

Now this is a question to everybody here. With the situation being as it is, do you really think that the EU will extend Brexit? I do not think so. There is a chance but Europe tried playing mr Nice Guy, this time Tusk will be in charge. Barnier has failed. We will not extend it unless a 2nd referendum is promised. UK has 15 days to decide.

Nonsense -

Personally, like you, I don't think so.

As far as the E.U is concerned, negotiations are concluded, only a 'technical' extension, dependent on a significant parliamentary agreement that would unambiguously lead to ratification of the agreement, be allowed, a longer extension will not fly & all is dependent on a unanimous agreement of the E.U 27.

So, yes, a 'technically' short duration-without interupting the forthcoming E.U elections, but nothing more than that, which is currently the faintest possibility.

[Nonsense]

Your words do rather remind me of Trotsky's formulations which was something like the Vanguard party must not be subject to the fickle will of the proletariat. All Russian Soviet Congresses were initially frequent and City wide Soviet recall could be very fast, but genuine Soviet democracy didn't even last a year. It was over by the autumn of 1918. The October coup was not against the Provisional government whose power was tawdry and failing fast, but a coup against the Soviets.

Cameron has certainly unleashed some chaos, but I still can't hear the fat lady singing can you? This was another brilliant night for May. She didn't want us to leave on the 29th March, but she didn't want to be responsible for leaving. Because of the Spellman amendment She even got to whip against the motion, not to leave without a deal. A powerful Prime Minister can use the government to enact her agenda. But May is way beyond that. She can get the Opposition to enact her agenda.

Nonsense =

You really are full of it Rich.

Nothing of what you say alters the 'final destination' of leaving the E.U.

[Seeker8]

SNP amendment saying the UK should revoke A50 if no deal is agreed has NOT been selected by the Speaker.

[Seeker8]

[Seeker8]

Now this is a question to everybody here. With the situation being as it is, do you really think that the EU will extend Brexit? I do not think so. There is a chance but Europe tried playing mr Nice Guy, this time Tusk will be in charge. Barnier has failed. We will not extend it unless a 2nd referendum is promised. UK has 15 days to decide.

[JohnRawls]

SNP amendment saying the UK should revoke A50 if no deal is agreed has NOT been selected by the Speaker.

Nobody is going to cancel A50 without a 2nd referendum. It is also not possible to cancel a no deal scenario because by the end of the deadline UK will still get a no deal if it doesn't sign a deal as confusing as it sounds. UK can either sign the deal, cancel A50 through a referendum or have no deal by default.

As we all know by now, there is no magic deal that anybody will sign. So i think any kind of deal is pretty much dead unless the ERG/Torries cave in to a customs Union. ( Not happening )

A50 cancellation through a referendum is very unlikely, again because Tories have the majority so i think a 2nd referendum will be blocked by Tories/Hardliners. There is a chance labour can gather enough votes but i think your general division between Tory/Labour makes it a political suicide so the candidates will never go for this.

The only thing that is left is drop out with default no deal option. This heavily depends on the EU and how far they wanna extend it. There is a high chance that the UK won't get an extension until June even because even Barnier thinks it is pointless now. Not to mention Tusk and other interested parties.

[Rich]

To be honest, I cannot speak for others, but, for myself, I find your comments on the public being cretins & stupid to be objectionable.

Well I'm sure both you and the British public will survive. I am but one one lone voice in the wilderness. Pick any newspaper, pick any TV channel, they are filled with commentators fawning before the public, telling them that they have been let down by their politicians, that they deserve better. Even if my insults were totally unfounded, surely just for the sake of balance its hardly some terrible travesty.

Maybe we will leave on the 29th March, to paraphrase, Nancy Pelosi we can only find out what's in a no deal Brexit by passing it. I'm entirely confident that a no deal Brexit will be entertaining. However my bet is that we won't leave. And I repeat why do people presume that May and Tusk are opposed. Is not possible that the whole May EU drama has been largely scripted from the start? The Irish really don't want a no deal Brexit. As the British Remainers want the British government to take no deal off the table the Eire government wants the EU to take no deal off the table. Both sides have been playing chicken in a most unconvincing manner.

Ireland will be fucked by no deal. Its vital for the EU, that they are not seen in Ireland as responsible for no deal. If they are then Ireland may fold on the defence of the single market. If Eire is to suffer the pain without breaking they will need all the rage to be directed against Britain. This is why I just can't see the EU denying an extension.

[Nonsense]

Well I'm sure both you and the British public will survive. I am but one one lone voice in the wilderness. Pick any newspaper, pick any TV channel, they are filled with commentators fawning before the public, telling them that they have been let down by their politicians, that they deserve better. Even if my insults were totally unfounded, surely just for the sake of balance its hardly some terrible travesty.

Maybe we will leave on the 29th March, to paraphrase, Nancy Pelosi we can only find out what's in a no deal Brexit by passing it. I'm entirely confident that a no deal Brexit will be entertaining. However my bet is that we won't leave. And I repeat why do people presume that May and Tusk are opposed. Is not possible that the whole May EU drama has been largely scripted from the start? The Irish really don't want a no deal Brexit. As the British Remainers want the British government to take no deal off the table the Eire government wants the EU to take no deal off the table. Both sides have been playing chicken in a most unconvincing manner.

Ireland will be fucked by no deal. Its vital for the EU, that they are not seen in Ireland as responsible for no deal. If they are then Ireland may fold on the defence of the single market. If Eire is to suffer the pain without breaking they will need all the rage to be directed against Britain. This is why I just can't see the EU denying an extension.

Nonsense -

I don't condemn you for being straight talking, I welcome it, even if what I read is a bit zany at times, as I am sure that's how I & others are to you Rich.

I do concur with your thoughts in what has happened to our political discourse,however, in the case of the topic, much of what we do say is debatable until events clarify the present position's as they happen, we may deduce what will happen next, but that's always speculation, reality is the 'actual', that is what happened.

We know the beginning, the vote to leave, we also know the end game - to leave, the journey between the two is full of pitfalls of the government's making, detours can be taken, the destination remains the same.

[Rich]

I do wonder if George Parker the FT Political Editor has been stalking these forums and cribbing off my analysis:

Each humiliating disaster for @theresa_may in the Commons this week brings forward the moment of reckoning for the ERG and DUP; I get the sense many will fold next week, especially after tonight's No Deal vote. Is May losing her way to victory?

I agree with Tom Newton Dunn she probably won't be able to push it over the line. However I'm relieved that I may have overestimated the potential for Labour support for May's deal. Hat's off to Lisa Nandy. I don't think she ever intended to back May's deal, but her earnest, I really want to vote for May deal, acting was very good. At the least it had me fooled. The Labour party has ended up remarkably united on this, even including the people who have supposedly left.

I think Jeremy Corbyn had also pulled off the remarkable trick of controlling events while appearing to be not controlling events. Sure Corbyn is no great intellectual, but he's a canny political operator, way more impressive than those buffoons, john McDonnell and Dianne Abbot.

[snapdragon]

Now this is a question to everybody here. With the situation being as it is, do you really think that the EU will extend Brexit? I do not think so.

Definitely. Of course they will.

There is a chance but Europe tried playing mr Nice Guy, this time Tusk will be in charge. Barnier has failed. We will not extend it unless a 2nd referendum is promised. UK has 15 days to decide.

So? There you are then. A second referendum it is.

I don't know why brexiters are running round like headless chickens over the idea, because what could be more democratic?

edit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47564793

oh, bloody hell.

I read an article which claimed May has worked out she only needs to put her deal to the vote 6 times for it to pass.

if she can do it time after time, then why is a second referendum such a terrible thing?

[layman]

There will be an extension for many reasons. One of which is that the eu isn’t going to give up any of its moral high ground over a couple of months. It would be weird not to go into extra time - even a bit - for something as important as this to some of its members. Specifically, particular sectors of specific members. Eg Irish meat farmers. Whether there “is a point” is besides the point. Appearance is critical in international affairs.

Question is the length of the extension and whether there can be multiple ones. May is now threatening long extension to erg or else her deal, plus short extension. Apparently many erg nerds say they will agree as long as she quits as well.

If I had to guess I would predict 2 month extension followed by slightly modified version of may deal.

Edit

https://apple.news/AP0kJEieGRpS7qEbVfcb9ag

[Atlantis]

The Brexit government announced that, in the event of a no-deal, it would slash tariffs on more than 80 % of imports. The measure is to prevent a sudden price increase and consecutive downturn in the economy.

There are to be no checks between the Republic of Ireland and North Ireland; however, trade between Ireland and England/Scotland/Wales will be checked. In other words, there have to be checks between NI and restUK, the very reason why the UK government initially opposed the backstop.

While tariffs on most industrial goods are to be slashed, high tariffs are to be imposed on farming produce such as beef, in an apparent effort to punish Ireland.

Even in the event they are crazy enough to implement such a plan, I doubt they can maintain it for longer than 2 weeks, at most. The selective tariffs for different countries are illegal under the WTO and 3rd parties would have no incentive to agree a trade deal if the UK unilaterally slashes most of its tariffs.

[Seeker8]

Nobody is going to cancel A50 without a 2nd referendum.

It would have been good to see who would do it other than the SNP. But yea, it wouldn't have got a majority.

Also, about the extension, seen this earlier:

[Rugoz]

Nonsense -

Nonsense -

Nonsense =

Fit for the loony bin.

[Nonsense]

Any decision by the E.U to accept an 'extended' extension,would hardly be likely to get passed in the E.U parliament.

It would seem that Brussels has it's own 'assylum' where the 'inmates' have identical political DNA as MP's at Westminster, each expressing their own personal views
on what direction the next step should be.

Now, politics is always in a state of flux, but policies based on sets of principles are meant to create 'values' which are meant to stand the test of time.

In the case of the U.K leaving the E.U, the latter representatives appear to be infected with a dose of Westminster hysteria & are slowly losing their sense as well.

Should MAY entertain a 'second' referendum on the WA, the DUP-ERG should go on 'strike', ignore the whips & refuse to vote on any further government legislation until an election is held.

Any interference by the E.U in U.K internal affairs, such as manipulating an extension without meeting the stated criteria, would be politically counter-productive in it's effects on U.K politics at the next election.

[noemon]

:lol:

Truer words have not been spoken.

[Atlantis]

There has been a coup at Westminster without anybody noticing it. The government has been sidelined for parliament to micro-manage the affairs of state by a series of never-ending amendments.

Bercow calls four amendments, including one calling for a second referendum
John Bercow, the speaker, says he is calling four amendments, plus an amendment to an amendment.

They are:

1) Sarah Wollaston’s - calling for an extension to article 50 to allow for time for a referendum on Brexit.

2) Hilary Benn’s - saying next Wednesday should be set aside for a debate that would start the process of allowing MPs to hold indicative votes on Brexit alternatives. There is also an amendment to this amendment, from Labour’s Lucy Powell, changing the timing.

3) Labour’s - saying article 50 should be extended to allow time for MPs to find a majority for a different approach to Brexit.

4) Chris Bryant’s - saying Theresa May should not be allowed to put her deal to the Commons again.

The Tory Brexiter Mark Francois used a point of order to complain about Bercow’s failure to call the Lee Rowley amendment ruling out a second referendum. It has been signed by more than 100 MPs.

Bercow will not go into detail about why he did not select it, but he says sometimes MPs are disappointed by his selection of amendments.

Bercow has now become the de facto head of the Junta by virtue of his voice and the lack of effective government.

Time for the EU to put a caretaker government in place at Westminster. While they are at it, they ought to revamp the whole system to give the Brits a shiny new constitution with proportional representation and all. It's been too long since we send William of Orange to give the Brits their Bill of Rights. They are obviously totally incapable of reform if its not imposed on them from the outside.

[Nonsense]

Rugoz -

Nonsense wrote:
Nonsense -”


“
Nonsense wrote:
Nonsense -”


“
Nonsense wrote:
Nonsense =”

Fit for the loony bin.

Nonsense -

The monosyllable warrior strikes again....or is it a case of a 'scratched' record...

[Unperson-K]

edit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47564793

oh, bloody hell.

I read an article which claimed May has worked out she only needs to put her deal to the vote 6 times for it to pass.

if she can do it time after time, then why is a second referendum such a terrible thing?

Bercow has said it is questionable whether she can just repeatedly put her deal before the House, since no changes have been made to it. Also, observe that today Bercow has given time to an amendment that would forbid May from placing her deal before the House again (while denying an amendment that would forbid a second referendum, despite being supported by over 100 MPs from both Labour and the Tories). It is evident that he won't stand for too much chicanery from May.

The question remains: will the ERG and DUP back down next week when the deal comes up again? This is now the crux on which everything depends.