[Nonsense]

There has been a coup at Westminster without anybody noticing it. The government has been sidelined for parliament to micro-manage the affairs of state by a series of never-ending amendments.

Bercow has now become the de facto head of the Junta by virtue of his voice and the lack of effective government.
Time for the EU to put a caretaker government in place at Westminster. While they are at it, they ought to revamp the whole system to give the Brits a shiny new constitution with proportional representation and all. It's been too long since we send William of Orange to give the Brits their Bill of Rights. They are obviously totally incapable of reform if its not imposed on them from the outside.

Nonsense

As I have previously alluded to, " the inmates have taken over the Westminster Lunatic Assylum".

They say that, if you pay peanuts, you get monkeys working for you, at Westminster, these overpaid monkeys are doing ape sh*t over our democracy & laughing all the way to the bank at our expense.

Roll on the next election...bring it on.

[ingliz]

Should MAY entertain a 'second' referendum on the WA...

Why?

Are you scared the Willy o' the People will not rise to the occasion.

[SolarCross]

Why?

Are you scared the Willy o' the People will not rise to the occasion.

If we had a second referendum and Leave lost then we'd have to have a third referendum for the tie breaker. If Remain lost the third, then they would want a fourth and so on.

[Potemkin]

If we had a second referendum and Leave lost then we'd have to have a third referendum for the tie breaker. If Remain lost the third, then they would want a fourth and so on.

This is the problem with referenda - when do you stop? The Brexit referendum was a snapshot of public opinion at a certain moment of time. Had it been held six months earlier or six months later, the result might have been different. Why determine the fate of the entire nation for generations into the future based on what public opinion happened to be on one particular day?

All of which just tells you - determining public policy by referendum is a terrible, terrible idea. It's the sort of thing that used to be done only by short Continental types who wore funny hats or had funny moustaches, called themselves 'Emperor' or 'Fuehrer' or whatnot, and kept marching their armies uninvited into their neighbours' territory. I mean, it's just not British.

[layman]

Labour will not back second referendum vote but it’s doesnt Matter because it wouldn’t pass anyway at this time.

I’m starting to think that may only wants her deal passed so she can quit with a shred of dignity. She is not enjoying the job.

[Rugoz]

All of which just tells you - determining public policy by referendum is a terrible, terrible idea. It's the sort of thing that used to be done only by short Continental types who wore funny hats or had funny moustaches, called themselves 'Emperor' or 'Fuehrer' or whatnot, and kept marching their armies uninvited into their neighbours' territory. I mean, it's just not British.

The only country in continental Europe that determines its public policy by referendum to any meaningful degree is Switzerland and it hasn't invaded a neighbor since 1515. How many countries has Britain invaded again?

[Heisenberg]

The only country in continental Europe that determines its public policy by referendum to any meaningful degree is Switzerland and it hasn't invaded a neighbor since 1515. How many countries has Britain invaded again?

You lot really are slacking on that front. Chop chop!

Also, we didn't invade anyone. We were invited in. You know, by us.

[Seeker8]

The question remains: will the ERG and DUP back down next week when the deal comes up again? This is now the crux on which everything depends.

I don't think they will back down, and so i don't think there will be an extension.

[Atlantis]

Theresa May’s Brexit deal has suffered another momentous defeat, voted down by the House of Commons by a margin of 149.

This follows MPs’ record-breaking 230-margin rejection of the deal in January. Barely two weeks before the scheduled Brexit date of March 29, a delay is looking almost certain. Parliament has already voted against a no-deal Brexit in far more categoric — if non-binding — terms than Mrs May had wanted.

But the UK prime minister is preparing one more push to get her agreement through before a crucial EU summit on March 21-22.

THURSDAY MARCH 14

Decision on delay

The Brexit timeline is shifting. After months of insisting that Britain’s departure from the EU will take place on schedule on March 29, Mrs May says that the two Commons defeats for her deal mean a delay is inevitable.

In a motion supported by MPs by 412 votes to 202, Mrs May sets out plans to ask the EU for a “one-off extension” of the formal Article 50 divorce process until June 30.

The motion adds that this three-month delay, which would be “for the purpose of passing the necessary EU exit legislation”, assumes that MPs will finally have backed her exit deal by March 20 — the eve of next week’s EU summit.

But if parliament has not supported her deal, she cautions, the delay will be much longer, and would require the UK to take part in European Parliament elections in May.

TUESDAY MARCH 19

Third meaningful vote?

Although her Brexit deal suffered the biggest and fourth-biggest defeats in parliamentary history (in January and March respectively), Mrs May wants to try to win MPs’ approval once again. The vote is most likely to be on Tuesday March 19.

Her calculation is that now the Commons has made clear its opposition to a no-deal Brexit and the EU has made plain its hostility to any further renegotiation, Conservative Brexiters and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party will finally, reluctantly, rally round the agreement.

The parliamentary arithmetic could be very tight and the prime minister’s authority seems to be slipping away. But Mrs May’s bet is that, faced with a choice between her deal and the alternative of a long delay — and the prospect of a soft-Brexit or no Brexit at all — recalcitrant MPs will finally blink.

MARCH 21-22

EU summit

The EU summit is now set to be one of the big set pieces of the whole Brexit saga, barely a week before Britain’s scheduled exit.

The big issue in its in-tray is what kind of Article 50 extension to grant to the UK. This involves deciding how long a delay should be, whether it should be a one-off and what the conditions should be.

EU leaders have said that much will depend on what the UK would use an extension for — whether the purpose of a delay would be for a fundamental rethink of Brexit or for more limited technical reasons.

What will make all the difference is whether Mrs May will come to the summit with her deal finally approved — which means she will just be seeking a delay until June 30 — or whether there is no deal in place.

MARCH 29

Scheduled Brexit day

For two years March 29 has been identified as Brexit day.

Now it is likely to slip past with the UK remaining in the EU, at least for now. But there is still the possibility that the UK could leave the bloc on this date. The EU could reject a British Article 50 extension request — although this is considered unlikely — and the UK also needs to alter legislation that sets the March 29 date in law.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has warned that the UK could crash out of the bloc without a deal “by accident”.

EARLY APRIL

Indicative votes?

If Mrs May’s deal still has not been approved by this time, now will be the moment for the House of Commons to say what it really wants.

Pro-EU MPs have long been pushing for a series of motions to be debated on alternative forms of Brexit — such as a permanent customs union with the EU, continued membership of the single market and a second referendum.

Parliamentary amendments to that effect have so far failed — most recently by a wafer thin margin on March 14. But, in response to the pressure, the government has promised to allow MPs to hold “indicative votes” to seek a majority on the way forward. These would take place two weeks after the EU summit (assuming Mrs May’s deal has not been approved by then).

APRIL OR LATER

Deal passed into UK law?

If the Commons finally approves a Brexit treaty in a meaningful vote, the government will put forward a new piece of legislation: the European Union (withdrawal agreement) bill. This would pass into law some of Brexit’s biggest issues, such as the agreement on citizens’ rights, the financial settlement and the details of the transition. It will be a hugely consequential piece of legislation.

Many battles could take place on individual details. This has led some MPs to warn that approving the legislation could become a prolonged “guerrilla war”. This is one big reason why Mrs May is seeking a limited Article 50 extension until late June.

If, by contrast, Britain leaves the EU without a deal on March 29, Europe’s Brexit negotiators will not end talks but reset their clocks to a new cliff-edge date: April 18. After 20 days of likely disorder at ports, supermarkets and borders, the deadline will be Britain’s chance to avoid a more lasting rupture with its biggest trading partner — if it can stomach the price.

By April 18, according to European Commission contingency plans, Britain must confirm whether to make about €7bn of net contributions to the EU’s budget for 2019. The first payments, which require House of Commons approval, are scheduled for April 30; EU negotiators say missing them will “ruin” relations.

MAY 23-MAY 26

European Parliament elections

Jean-Claude Juncker, the Commission president, has argued that any delay beyond May 23 would require the UK to take part in the European Parliament elections that begin on that day.

Similarly Mrs May says that if Britain requests a relatively long extension to rethink her deal, it will need to hold the elections — a move she says would be a big mistake and which many Brexiters would see as a betrayal.

However, many EU officials disagree with Mr Juncker that the cut-off date is May 23. Instead, they see the key moment as July 2, when the members of the new European Parliament take their seats. That is one reason why Mrs May is now looking at an Article extension until June 30.

BEFORE JUNE 30

EU ratification

Before any Brexit deal can take effect, it must also be approved by the European Parliament in a plenary vote. Any legally questionable elements of the withdrawal treaty could also be referred to the European Court of Justice by MEPs. EU member states must also give the deal final approval in a ministerial meeting.

JUNE 30

Actual Brexit day?

Predicting Brexit is a difficult task.

But June 30 may be the date when the UK finally leaves the EU — assuming Mrs May eventually wins the UK parliament’s backing for her unloved Brexit deal and receives the EU’s go-ahead for a three-month extension.

This would therefore be a historic day: the end of Britain’s tempestuous 46-year membership of the European club, although the transition deal laid out in Mrs May’s deal would keep the UK under European rules until the end of 2020 at the earliest.

A June 30 exit date is also far from certain. Not only could Britain crash out earlier, but some EU leaders have talked of much longer delays, as has Mrs May, if Britain wants fundamentally to reconsider what kind of Brexit deal it wants.

Simon Coveney, Ireland’s deputy prime minister, has said that an extension of up to 21 months to the end of 2020 is a possibility. But EU officials say there is little prospect of the bloc forcing the UK to remain a member for any longer than Britain wants.

AFTER BREXIT DAY

Trade talks and transition

Assuming that Brexit has taken place, fully fledged trade talks can begin between the UK and the EU. While Britain remained a member state, such talks were not permitted under EU law.

Under the deal reached in principle in 2018, this is when the transition period until December 2020 would begin. During this time most aspects of UK membership of the EU will remain in place, including free movement across borders and membership of the customs union and single market. But Britain will no longer have a vote.

DECEMBER 31 2020

An end to transition?

The transition period is scheduled to end on this date, although that could be changed, according to the draft withdrawal treaty.

The problem is that some EU negotiators doubt that a full UK-EU trade deal will be agreed by this point, or for some time to come, given the protracted nature of such talks. So the treaty also establishes that the transition could be extended up to December 31 2022.

It is also worth noting that this is the date floated by Mr Coveney, Ireland’s deputy prime minister, as a possible end date, not of the transition but of the Article extension process. Under this scenario, which is an outlier, Britain could therefore remain an EU member until this date.

DECEMBER 31 2022?

Entering the backstop

The provisional withdrawal treaty makes clear that if, at the end of the transition, no deal is in place to avoid a hard border with Northern Ireland, the so-called backstop will automatically kick in.

This will keep the entire UK in a “temporary” customs union with the EU, although Northern Ireland will be more deeply integrated into the bloc.

Brexiters are deeply opposed to the backstop plan, arguing that it imperils the integrity of the UK, increases Brussels’ powers over Britain on issues such as tax, state aid, and labour and environmental regulation, and provides no guaranteed date for departure.

As a result, Mrs May is seeking to agree changes to the backstop, to avoid the UK remaining under the measure indefinitely and against its will. Her talks with the EU will determine whether the backstop remains part of the deal, whether any of its provisions are changed — or whether there is any deal at all.

MID-2020S

Journey’s end?

Many business leaders suggest that the “maximum facilitation” plan favoured by some Brexiters, which would rely on advanced technology to speed up customs clearances — and so exit the backstop — would need years to put in place, delaying “full Brexit” until deep into the 2020s.

A less ambitious “fast-track” system on the US-Canada border took decades to develop and billions of dollars in investment.

Don't forget to tell your grandchildren about how all of this started.

[Nonsense]

Why?

Are you scared the Willy o' the People will not rise to the occasion.

Nonsense -

If you knew the British people, you would know the answer to that question,also, considering that it's already been rejected by parliament,it's a bit irrelevent, but, it's a nice try.

[Beren]

I don't think they will back down, and so i don't think there will be an extension.

Ian Blackford made a passionate quasi-secession speech and there was a heated debate between Scottish MPs. He also said that Scotland wouldn't be dragged out of the EU against its will. I wonder if how serious all that was.

[Rich]

Well if Britain leaves the EU, I will certainly switch to supporting a united Ireland and an Independent Scotland. It would be fantastic way to screw over the United kingdom Independence campaign if there was no United Kingdom. The votes went well tonight. A massive majority for delaying Brexit but no majority for Parliament taking control. The danger of Parliament taking control is that they might find a choice that has a majority, which might actually enable Brexit to happen. The whole point of delaying Brexit is to maximise the chance that Brexit never happens.

[Beren]

The whole point of delaying Brexit is to maximise the chance that Brexit never happens.

If May asks for a long extension, it could cost her the premiership. If my understanding was correct Christopher Chope practically urged Labour to table a no confidence vote in her.

[Potemkin]

Ian Blackford made a passionate quasi-secession speech and there was a heated debate between Scottish MPs. He also said that Scotland wouldn't be dragged out of the EU against its will. I wonder if how serious all that was.

Very serious. My own opinion is that if Britain crashes out of the EU with no deal, the SNP will insist on a new Indy referendum, and will probably win it this time. No-deal Brexit will very likely lead to the breakup of the UK. Which is ironic, when you consider that most of the hardline Brexiteers are also hardline Unionists. Lol.

[Beren]

Very serious. My own opinion is that if Britain crashes out of the EU with no deal, the SNP will insist on a new Indy referendum, and will probably win it this time. No-deal Brexit will very likely lead to the breakup of the UK. Which is ironic, when you consider that most of the hardline Brexiteers are also hardline Unionists. Lol.

The SNP speak English like they're not even native English speakers. I can actually recognise their accent.

[Potemkin]

The SNP speak English like they're not even native English speakers. I can actually recognise their accent.

Scots English evolved independently from Standard English, Beren. It's sort of like the difference between German and Dutch. It's a distinct dialect, but we don't have our own army so it's not (yet) a separate language. Lol.

[JohnRawls]

Very serious. My own opinion is that if Britain crashes out of the EU with no deal, the SNP will insist on a new Indy referendum, and will probably win it this time. No-deal Brexit will very likely lead to the breakup of the UK. Which is ironic, when you consider that most of the hardline Brexiteers are also hardline Unionists. Lol.

If Britain crashes out of the EU with no Deal then nobody will let the scottish have a 2nd referendum at this point of time. I think 1 suicidal referendum is more than enough for the UK elite to stop gutting itself.

The chance of the EU of not extending is pretty high. I would say around 80%. The problem is that we might be seen as trying to execisvely punish the British and that is something that the EU doesn't want to happen. Again, our idealists will line up to help the UK but it is just wrong to do with everything what happened. As idealistic most of the EU is, we are currently experiencing a cognitive dissonance and starting to sober up a little. I think we won't extend but it can't be ruled out.

By wrong i obviously mean " Never interfere with your enemy when he is making a mistake ". I know this is something that people have a hard time realising but people currently in charge of Britain are not friends of the EU. Nor are they some kind of isolanist neutral force.

[Ter]

I used to have a Scottish bridge partner and I had problems understanding him even when he was not drunk.

[Potemkin]

If Britain crashes out of the EU with no Deal then nobody will let the scottish have a 2nd referendum at this point of time. I think 1 suicidal referendum is more than enough for the UK elite to stop gutting itself.

They will have great difficulty preventing one. A few months back, Rees-Mogg tried to get Parliament to rule out another Scottish Indy Ref for the next twenty years. He's nobody's fool - he knows exactly how a no-deal Brexit will be received in Scotland, and what it would mean for the future integrity of the UK. He failed to get what he wanted. This is the fundamental contradiction in the position of the Brexiteers - they want to leave the EU but they don't want Scotland to leave the UK, but the one will inevitably lead to the other. Lol.

[annatar1914]

They will have great difficulty preventing one. A few months back, Rees-Mogg tried to get Parliament to rule out another Scottish Indy Ref for the next twenty years. He's nobody's fool - he knows exactly how a no-deal Brexit will be received in Scotland, and what it would mean for the future integrity of the UK. He failed to get what he wanted. This is the fundamental contradiction in the position of the Brexiteers - they want to leave the EU but they don't want Scotland to leave the UK, but the one will inevitably lead to the other. Lol.

We're looking at an inevitable geopolitical earthquake the like of which hasen't been seen in centuries. The ''Centre cannot hold'' as Yeats said, and so we can ask rightfully ''what rough beast, it's hour come round at last, slouching towards Bethlehem to be born''?