[ingliz]

@ingliz

I am not English.

[youtube]GfAW9iyh9-o[/youtube]

[Nonsense]

[quote="JohnRawls"]@redcarpet
@Beren
@ingliz

What are you talking about even? You are going to pay us 60 Billion when it is all and done. I do not understand who gave the British people the impression that you are in the driving seat in these negotiations.

If you do not want to have a no deal Brexit, you will need to:

a) Pay us up for what you signed for. (Roughly 50-60 billion)
b) Provide a solution to Northern Ireland issue.
c) Give a position on European Union citizens right. (If we don't like it then No deal)

I don't know where you get £60 BILLION from, £40 BILLION is the current numerical total, unless you know something I & others don't?
There are TWO sides to the question of financial liabilities involved in leaving the EU , the UK has a 3 to 1 ratio of ex-pats - EU migrants in the Uk , that implies that the EU owes the UK a lot of money for pension & other social provisions.

While it's true that the EU doesn't need to do anything, providing it's a straightforward EXIT, if a trade deal is negotiated(paid for with British taxpayers money(DEBT),it's ONLY being done because of the business lobby that has been trundling into 10 Downing Street of late & it's ONLY the 'TORY' friends in business that will profit with our money through loss of public services.
Apart from this 'BREXIT' deal of sorts, just remember that if one is agreed, it will indicate that MAY has betrayed the 'Leavers' over 'Free Movement', as the 'Customs Union' & 'Single Market' are integral to the EU.

The 'Free Movement', 'Customs Union', along with the 'Single Market' are inseparable to the EU, therefore, if a 'deal' is agreed, either the EU27 or Theresa MAY will be shown to have betrayed the British public, or the principles of the EU will be broken.
If it's the UK that has 'blinked', the TORY Party will be politically 'DEAD', no 'change-of-leadership', AKA Political 'Musical-Chairs', such as when CAMERON resigned will change that one jot.

Any deviation of Maastricht or Lisbon Treaty will not be acceptable to the majority of the EU27 countries, otherwise, what is the point of treaties.
Treaties, whenever amended, should be put to the people to vote on should, not clandestinely hid under the carpet of a general election in any one country.
It was the TORY Party that took GB into the EEC(Common Market), that Treaty has changed out of all recognition in terms of free movement of people, capital or goods.
It's also true that there has been massive abuse through political negligence in the proper legal enforcement within the EU of the Geneva Convention over asylum-seekers & 'refugees'.

Considering the above, does any reasonable person believe that the founding principles have evolved to the benefit of the European peoples, or, that they have only changed to benefit the fat,corrupt Capitalist pigs & their political friends in the EU parliament?

I personally am not anti-European, I welcome people of any European country, whether in the EU or not, what is wrong, is
the 'social-engineering' as displayed with migrants from African nations or bogus 'asylum-seekers' & 'third-countries' of which the EU has extended it's policies without public support of the people of Europe.

It's also about the 'basis' upon which we allow people to be here, along with vigorous enforcement in deporting migrants who have no right to be here as 'citizens'.

[ingliz]

On Ireland there has to be a hard border, there is no other solution.

Other solution:

Ignore the DUP and keep NI in the SM & CU.

Problem solved.

[Atlantis]

Eh...at least get your numbers right.
EU exports to the UK were ~17% of total EU exports (EU exports minus UK exports to the rest of the world plus EU exports to UK).
UK exports to the EU were 43% of total.

At least try to muster a minimum degree of honesty, but I guess that is asking too much of you.

It's not very original to repeat the pre-referendum Brexit propaganda by mixing up intra- and extra-EU trade. For EU countries, the average share of exports to the UK is between 7 and 9% (except for Ireland). There is no way that can add up to a total of 17%.

UK exports to the EU27 are now above 43%. And if you include trade with 3rd parties, about 60% of UK trade takes place under EU trade agreements.

@JohnRawls is correct. With the current upswing in the economy, Brexit won't damage EU growth, while it has the potential to tank the UK economy, depending on what association agreement Westminster wants with the EU. So far, the British ideas about wanting quasi single market membership at zero costs are delusional. The longer the uncertainty continues, the harder the UK economy will suffer, no matter what political deal will be struck in the end. Even though nobody knows if the Brits will actually leave the single market in the end, the UK has already become the worst performing of the major OECD economies since the referendum.

On Ireland there has to be a hard border, there is no other solution.

Sure there is: Irish reunification.

It will happen sooner or later anyways. With Brexit, the British have accelerated the process.

[Seeker8]

Sure there is: Irish reunification.
It will happen sooner or later anyways. With Brexit, the British have accelerated the process.

Other solution:

Ignore the DUP and keep NI in the SM & CU.

Problem solved.

That would be great but there's no way the Tories will do it. I can't see them breaking up the union. Also, Scotland will expect a separate deal if N.Ireland get one.

I heard today that Ireland and therefore the EU will refuse any trade deal that involves a hard border in Ireland because it will break the good Friday agreement.

So the choices are:
1. Cancel Brexit.
2. Break up the UK.
3. Leave without any deal.

[Rugoz]

At least try to muster a minimum degree of honesty, but I guess that is asking too much of you.

It's not very original to repeat the pre-referendum Brexit propaganda by mixing up intra- and extra-EU trade. For EU countries, the average share of exports to the UK is between 7 and 9% (except for Ireland). There is no way that can add up to a total of 17%.

I suggest you think before you write, because accusing me of dishonesty makes you look like a fool.

The "average share of exports to the UK" you mentioned includes other intra-EU trade. You have to treat the UK and the EU as if they were separate countries. Granted, it took me 10 minutes to calculate that number
from this and the percentage figures here, but it's almost certainly correct (if one ignores changes in the exchange rate since 2016).

[Atlantis]

You have to treat the UK and the EU as if they were separate countries.

That is disingenuous. The UK is part of the EU. You are comparing 100% of UK exports (intra-EU plus extra-EU trade) with less than 50% of exports (extra-EU trade only) of other countries. That way you arrive at about double the real figure (ie. 17 instead of 8%). I don't believe you are so thick as to not understand that. Which means you are dishonest. But just in case, German exports to the UK are about 8% of total exports. If Germany looses UK exports, it loses 8%, not 17%, as you claim. The same more or less applies to all other EU countries.

[SolarCross]

There is no need for a hard border between NI and IR. If there is a need for a "hard border" (by which we are just talking nominal passport control) then it can be between NI and GB. The UK's role in NI is to guarantee security for the protestant / loyalist substance of the population and that can be done without putting a hard border up between the north and south regardless of Brexit. A resumption of the troubles is the only thing that would make necessary a hard border there.

[Rugoz]

That is disingenuous. The UK is part of the EU. You are comparing 100% of UK exports (intra-EU plus extra-EU trade) with less than 50% of exports (extra-EU trade only) of other countries. That way you arrive at about double the real figure (ie. 17 instead of 8%). I don't believe you are so thick as to not understand that. Which means you are dishonest. But just in case, German exports to the UK are about 8% of total exports. If Germany looses UK exports, it loses 8%, not 17%, as you claim. The same more or less applies to all other EU countries.

- Nonsense, 43% is the share of UK exports to the EU, intra-EU trade.
- And Scotland's exports to the EU are 16% of total (63% go to the rest of the UK, 21% to the rest of the world), does that mean the share of UK exports to the EU must be 16% as well? The smaller you go to more exports are dominated by local trade.

Also, stop acting like a jerk.

[ingliz]

by which we are just talking nominal passport control

We are not.

It does not work that way.

More than 2m vehicles cross that border every month.

If you leave the EU then we’d expect customs checks at the UK/Ireland border, to make sure the importer is paying the relevant tariffs, and to make sure nobody is sneaking sub-standard goods from one market to another.

The border is 310 miles long with at least 275 crossing points (probably more). Short of building a wall, you are fucked.

[Beren]

Also, stop acting like a jerk.

Sure, he should rather be a real jerk like you.

[Potemkin]

The border is 310 miles long with at least 275 crossing points (probably more). Short of building a wall, you are fucked.

Precisely. I really don't see how the UK government can resolve this issue to anyone's satisfaction. Creating a hard border between NI and the Republic would violate the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, an unthinkable option; and keeping a soft border would violate all sorts of international legal obligations regarding customs and so on. All of this just tells us that the Brexit referendum should never have been held - the British government simply hadn't bothered to think through the consequences of a 'yes' vote, since they had convinced themselves that the 'yes' option could not possibly win. Even the politicians who campaigned for Brexit didn't seem to believe it could or even should win. Hence Boris Johnson's hangdog expression when the result was announced. Far from being jubilant at having won, he looked like he'd just shit himself. Lol.

[Rugoz]

Sure, he should rather be a real jerk like you.

How dare you, filthy Hungarian.

[Beren]

As a matter of fact I don't really see your end here @Rugoz. Decisions about Brexit and Brexit strategy are made by the member states and not Brussels, and not any member state considers the UK such a significant trade partner as you suggest it is.

[Rugoz]

As a matter of fact I don't really see your end here @Rugoz. Decisions about Brexit and Brexit strategy are made by the member states and not Brussels, and not any member state considers the UK such a significant trade partner as you suggest it is.

There is no end, I was correcting a number.

[Beren]

There is no end

Then I was right not to see it.

[SolarCross]

We are not.

It does not work that way.

More than 2m vehicles cross that border every month.

If you leave the EU then we’d expect customs checks at the UK/Ireland border, to make sure the importer is paying the relevant tariffs, and to make sure nobody is sneaking sub-standard goods from one market to another.

The border is 310 miles long with at least 275 crossing points (probably more). Short of building a wall, you are fucked.

Who is the "we" in "we'd expect"?

As I understand it there are significantly different duties on fuel north and south of the border anyway and that leads to some fuel running etc. If somehow this is not a "sky is falling" issue then neither will be a non-border between NI & RI while NI is outside the EU but in the UK. NI has its own parliament anyway, it is semi-self-governing, if it wants to harmonise its own legislation with EU to make life easier for someone (just bureaucrats I guess) then it can do so. Maybe they can get a little more devolution to help with that. If the UK needs a hard border then the Sea of Ireland will do just as well.

[ingliz]

Who is the "we" in "we'd expect"?

The EU and it's citizens. Our priority is to protect single market, not a good trade deal with UK.




ps. Sorry for laughing but your misplaced belief in Empire 2.0 and Anglo-exceptionalism is hilariously funny.

[SolarCross]

The EU and it's citizens. Our priority is to protect single market, not a good trade deal with UK.

Which is in no danger, so no this is not about that. This is just sour grapes over the UK leaving.

[ingliz]

@SolarCross

Why do you think the UK, a jurisdiction outside the European Economic Area (EEA) after Brexit, is somehow a special case and should be treated differently to any other 'third country'?